Geopolitics and Transport Modes Effects of the Gravity Model

Geopolitics and Transport Modes Effects of the Gravity Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Geopolitics and Transport Modes Effects of the Gravity Model Lucien Chaffa, Thierry Warin, Martin Trépanier This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7941156/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines how geopolitical tensions and transport modes jointly influence international trade flows within a structural gravity framework. Using bilateral trade data from 2011 to 2023 for the world’s top 40 trading nations, we combine measures of geopolitical distance with detailed information on dominant transport modes (air, maritime, and land). Employing Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimations with extensive fixed effects, we find that time-varying geopolitical distance significantly reduces trade flows, particularly in recent years marked by heightened global tensions. However, the magnitude of this effect varies by transport mode: air and maritime trade appear more resilient to geopolitical frictions than land-based exchanges. Our findings highlight that the sensitivity of trade to geopolitics depends critically on the logistical channels through which goods are exchanged. By integrating political alignment and transport structures into the gravity model, this study provides new insights into the resilience and vulnerability of global trade networks in an era of rising geopolitical uncertainty. JEL : F14; F51; R41; F10 Geopolitics Transport modes Gravity model Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) Trade resilience Political economy of trade Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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