Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency

Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 7 July 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency Authors : Dorian Spät 0000-0002-9029-297X [email protected] , Michela Biasutti , and Aiko Voigt Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175192379.92851128/v1 Published Geophysical Research Letters Version of record Peer review timeline 144 views 134 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Since the 1980s, Sahel rainfall totals, extreme rainfall, and the share of rainfall from extreme events have all trended upward. In observational and reanalysis datasets, these increases are linked to trends in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and extreme deep convection (cold clusters). Throughout this period, precipitation metrics have increased first via increases in MCS frequency and the relative increase in cold clusters, and later via an increase in storm precipitation intensity. Until the late 2000s, increases in the frequency of strong storms were supported by increased vertical shear of the zonal wind, as the African easterly jet intensified in response to the strengthening meridional temperature gradient over the Sahel. Afterwards, the storm frequency and vertical wind shear stopped increasing. Yet, extreme precipitation continued to increase, as the storms' precipitation intensity increased. We link the higher precipitation intensity to an increase in atmospheric moisture in both the boundary layer and aloft. Supplementary Material File (spät_etal_sahelian_storms_obs_grl2025_si.pdf) Download 7.91 MB File (spät_etal_sahelian_storms_obs_grl2025_v3.pdf) Download 4.97 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 07 July 2025 Peer review timeline Published Geophysical Research Letters Version of Record 23 Aug 2025 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License Keywords extreme precipitation extreme rainfall mesoscale convective system sahel shear strong storm Authors Affiliations Dorian Spät 0000-0002-9029-297X [email protected] Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna View all articles by this author Michela Biasutti Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University View all articles by this author Aiko Voigt Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 144 views 134 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Dorian Spät, Michela Biasutti, Aiko Voigt. Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency. Authorea . 07 July 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175192379.92851128/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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