Decoding the Spill Over and Predictive Power of Global Markets on Green Bonds: Deep Learning Perspective

Decoding the Spill Over and Predictive Power of Global Markets on Green Bonds: Deep Learning Perspective | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Decoding the Spill Over and Predictive Power of Global Markets on Green Bonds: Deep Learning Perspective Haseen Ahmed This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8358864/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this study, I examine whether global financial markets can predict the global green bond prices, and how they are connecting with green bonds. The study uses, daily time series data from 04:2013 to 03:2025, and applies DCC-GARCH, Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover framework, and deep learning-based Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (RNN-LSTM), and Graph Neural Network – Graph Attention Network (GNN-GAT) based models. The combined approach of traditional and deep learning-based models, found the financial markets to be significantly connected with the green bonds. Highest linkage of green bonds is found with the US Dollar Index, crude oil prices and global equities index. However, global commodity index and crypto markets are relatively weakly connected. However, as per the deep learning-based models, US dollar index strongly overshadows the other variables in impacting the green bonds. The novel findings have significant implications for the investors in the sustainable finance, as study finds diversification opportunities and supports portfolio optimisation. Green Bonds Deep Learning Sustainable Finance Financial Markets DCC-GARCH Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8358864","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":561174686,"identity":"42725e45-2c36-4e4e-98ab-d8056f3c56c9","order_by":0,"name":"Haseen 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The study uses, daily time series data from 04:2013 to 03:2025, and applies DCC-GARCH, Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover framework, and deep learning-based Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (RNN-LSTM), and Graph Neural Network – Graph Attention Network (GNN-GAT) based models. The combined approach of traditional and deep learning-based models, found the financial markets to be significantly connected with the green bonds. Highest linkage of green bonds is found with the US Dollar Index, crude oil prices and global equities index. However, global commodity index and crypto markets are relatively weakly connected. However, as per the deep learning-based models, US dollar index strongly overshadows the other variables in impacting the green bonds. 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