A sub decadal geochemical paleothermometer challenges the Holocene temperature conundrum in continental Asia

A sub decadal geochemical paleothermometer challenges the Holocene temperature conundrum in continental Asia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A sub decadal geochemical paleothermometer challenges the Holocene temperature conundrum in continental Asia Natalia Rudaya, Andrey Darin, Vyacheslav Novikov, Snezhana Zhilich, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9540103/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Holocene temperature conundrum — the discrepancy between proxy-based cooling and model-based warming — remains a major challenge. A leading hypothesis attributes this to seasonal bias in proxies. Testing this requires annually-calibrated records from understudied regions, which are lacking. Here we present a sub-decadal (~4-year) reconstruction of mean annual air temperature for the last 10,700 years from the Altai Mountains in continental Asia, using a novel bromine-to-rubidium (Br/Rb) proxy in alpine lake sediments. The proxy is calibrated directly against instrumental MAAT records (r = 0.82, RMSE = 0.39 °C). Our reconstruction reveals a pronounced Holocene Thermal Maximum between 6.4 and 4.6 ka BP, with anomalies reaching +3.2 °C above the 20th-century mean, followed by sustained cooling culminating in the Little Ice Age. The post-HTM cooling exceeds 5 °C — too large for orbital forcing alone. This cooling trend is difficult to reconcile with seasonal bias as the sole explanation. Instead, the observed evolution points to regional feedbacks (vegetation-albedo, glacier advance, permafrost) that amplified the orbital signal. By providing an annually-calibrated benchmark from understudied interior Asia, our study suggests that resolving the conundrum requires better representation of such feedbacks in climate models. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoclimate Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental chemistry/Geochemistry Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files FigS2water.pdf Fig.S2 Appendix1.xlsx Appendix1 Appendix2.xlsx Appendix2 Fig.S1sumwin.pdf Fig.S1 Appendix4.xlsx Appendix4 FigS3PFTs.pdf Fig.S3 Appendix3.xlsx Appendix3 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9540103","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":633173075,"identity":"53404409-1899-48a4-a957-62edfab257d7","order_by":0,"name":"Natalia Rudaya","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACCSCWAzEOPCBFizFYSwIpWhIbQCyitJhLnzG88bPNLn1+2OGHQFvs5HQbCGix7MsxtuxtS87deDvNAKgl2djsAAEtBmd4zCR425hzN85OAGk5kLiNGC2Sf9vq0w1np38gXos0b9vhBHnpHKJtYSu2ljl33HCDdE7BgQQDovzCvPHmm7JqefnZ6Zs/fKiwkyOoBQwY2YB6wSoNiFEOBn8YGOQbiFY9CkbBKBgFIw0AAFQLQ/SMqQ3eAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1536-6470","institution":"Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAET SB RAS)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Natalia","middleName":"","lastName":"Rudaya","suffix":""},{"id":633173076,"identity":"581573ac-1733-4427-9863-10dbab98fe03","order_by":1,"name":"Andrey Darin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"V.S. 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