Transient demographic dynamics of recovering fish populations shaped by past climate variability, harvest, and management

Large-scale commercial harvesting and climate-induced fluctuations in ocean properties shape the dynamics of marine populations as interdependent drivers at varied timescales. Selective removals of larger, older members of a population can distort its demographic structure, eroding resilience to fluctuations in habitat conditions and thus amplifying volatility in transient dynamics. Through the implementation of stricter management measures, many historically depleted fish stocks began showing signs of recovery in recent decades. But these interventions coincided with accelerated changes in the oceans triggered by increasingly warmer, more variable climates. Applying multilevel models to annual estimates of demographic metrics of 38 stocks comprising 11 species across seven ecoregions in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, this study explores how time-varying local and regional climates contributed to the transient dynamics of recovering populations exposed to variable fishing pressures moderated by management actions. Analyses reveal that progressive reductions in fishing pressure and shifting climate conditions nonlinearly shaped rebuilding patterns of the stocks through restorations of maternal demographic structure (reversing age truncation) and reproductive capacity. As the survival rate and demographic structure of reproductive fish improved, transient growth became less sensitive to variability in recruitment and juvenile survival and more to that in adult survival. As the biomass of reproductive fish rose, recruitment success also became increasingly regulated by density-dependent processes involving higher numbers of older fish. When reductions in fishing pressure were insufficient or delayed, however, stocks became further depleted, with more eroded demographic structures. Although warmer local climates in spawning seasons promoted recruitment success in some ecoregions, changing climates in recent decades began adversely affecting reproductive performances overall, amplifying sensitivities to recruitment variability. These shared patterns underscore the value of demographic transients in developing robust strategies for managing marine resources. Such strategies could form the foundation for effective applications of adaptive measures resilient to future environmental change.