Spatio-temporal Modeling of chikungunya in Brazil: Interplay of Climate, Mobility, and Socioeconomic Factors

Spatio-temporal Modeling of chikungunya in Brazil: Interplay of Climate, Mobility, and Socioeconomic Factors | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Spatio-temporal Modeling of chikungunya in Brazil: Interplay of Climate, Mobility, and Socioeconomic Factors Raquel Palasio, Patricia Bermudi, Gerson Barbosa, Pedro Peixoto, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8050927/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Chikungunya, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has increased in Brazil, accounting for 98% of reported cases in the Americas. This study, we modeled the spatio-temporal distribution of chikungunya across the urban centroids of Brazilian municipalities from 2015 to 2024 and evaluated the effects of climatic, environmental, mobility, and socioeconomic factors. Bayesian ecological regression models with fixed and random effects were implemented in R-INLA. Overall, 1,121,705 cases were analyzed. Higher chikungunya incidence was associated with lower altitudes and the Caatinga biome. A non-linear association with temperature was observed, showing a negative relationship up to 17°C that became positive and peaked around 21°C. Initially concentrated in the northeast, chikungunya later spread toward the southeast and central-west regions of Brazil. Unexpected outbreaks during the winter suggest disruptions in seasonality. This approach underscores the importance of considering multiple interacting factors in combating vector-borne diseases, particularly in regions prone to rapid disease transmission, such as Brazil. Health sciences/Diseases/Infectious diseases/Viral infection Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Health sciences/Risk factors Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Spatio-temporal analysis INLA climate chikungunya Brazil Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files chikungunyaINLAspacetimespdemodel.pdf GitHub repository2 READMEGit.pdf GitHub repository1 supplementarychik.pdf PDF of the Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8050927","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":546374549,"identity":"5fe8fba4-033d-4ab4-9a65-46611b02dc4e","order_by":0,"name":"Raquel 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