Variations in Arctic Ocean Dynamics and Hydrography under Early Last Interglacial and Future Warmings

Variations in Arctic Ocean Dynamics and Hydrography under Early Last Interglacial and Future Warmings | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 25 June 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Variations in Arctic Ocean Dynamics and Hydrography under Early Last Interglacial and Future Warmings Authors : Marie Sicard 0000-0002-6180-2264 [email protected] , Agatha Margaretha De Boer 0000-0002-3943-7694 , Helen Coxall 0000-0002-2843-2898 , Torben Koenigk 0000-0003-2051-743X , Mehdi Pasha Karami 0000-0003-0390-2889 , René Gabriel Navarro-Labastida , Martin Jakobsson 0000-0002-9033-3559 , Matt O'Regan 0000-0002-6046-1488 , and Flor Vermassen Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175087589.96622769/v1 231 views 155 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Using outputs from eight CMIP6/PMIP4 models, we analyze the hydrographic and surface ocean circulation differences across three climate states: the pre-industrial (PI; 1850 CE), the Last Interglacial (LIG; 127 ka BP), characterized by strong summer insolation, and a future warming scenario driven by gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 and with similar annual Arctic sea-ice volume to the LIG. In the LIG experiments, an anomalous cyclonic circulation over Greenland and surrounding seas enhances the Baffin and Labrador currents, while slightly weakening the East Greenland Current relative to PI. These changes affect sea-ice and water export on both sides of Greenland. Most models also show a strengthened North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and increased volume transports through the Fram Strait and Barents Sea Opening. However, this does not always correlate with a larger heat transport into the Arctic. In contrast, the CO2-forced simulations show a weakened SPG, but more amount of water and heat are carried towards the Arctic compared with the PI period. Consequently, temperatures of the surface and subsurface waters are higher in the Eurasian Basin and sea-ice decline in the Barents Sea is more pronounced compared with the PI and LIG periods. These changes in the CO2-forced experiments closely resemble the ongoing Arctic Atlantification, whereas evidence for a similar process during the LIG is less clear. Supplementary Material File (sicard_et_al-main.pdf) Download 10.19 MB File (sicard_et_al-si.pdf) Download 5.86 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 25 June 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License Keywords arctic climate modeling future changes last interglacial oceanography Authors Affiliations Marie Sicard 0000-0002-6180-2264 [email protected] University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment View all articles by this author Agatha Margaretha De Boer 0000-0002-3943-7694 Stockholm University View all articles by this author Helen Coxall 0000-0002-2843-2898 Stockholm University View all articles by this author Torben Koenigk 0000-0003-2051-743X Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute View all articles by this author Mehdi Pasha Karami 0000-0003-0390-2889 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute View all articles by this author René Gabriel Navarro-Labastida Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute View all articles by this author Martin Jakobsson 0000-0002-9033-3559 Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University View all articles by this author Matt O'Regan 0000-0002-6046-1488 Stockholm University View all articles by this author Flor Vermassen Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 231 views 155 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Marie Sicard, Agatha Margaretha De Boer, Helen Coxall, et al. Variations in Arctic Ocean Dynamics and Hydrography under Early Last Interglacial and Future Warmings. Authorea . 25 June 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175087589.96622769/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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