Multidecadal morphodynamic evolution of mangrove-fringed shorelines in Karawang, Indonesia

Multidecadal morphodynamic evolution of mangrove-fringed shorelines in Karawang, Indonesia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Multidecadal morphodynamic evolution of mangrove-fringed shorelines in Karawang, Indonesia Roni Sewiko, Mutiara Rachmat Putri, Ayi Tarya, Agus Setiawan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8501712/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Purpose Mangrove-fringed muddy coasts along the Java Sea provide critical coastal protection but are increasingly stressed by relative sea-level rise, subsidence and human modification. This study quantifies multidecadal shoreline and mangrove dynamics along the 84-km coast of Karawang, north Java, Indonesia (1995–2025), and identifies coastal segments where mangrove-based measures can most effectively support nature-based coastal protection. Methods We derived shoreline change from a distance–area shift (DAS) workflow in Google Earth Engine that mimics Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) transect statistics, estimating net shoreline movement (NSM), end-point rate (EPR) and a coastal shoreline position (CSP) index at 250-m segments within a 1-km coastal strip. Mangrove extent and structural density were mapped by adapting a mangrove vegetation index (vE3) and classifying sparse, moderate and dense canopies calibrated against recent high-resolution mapping. Time series of NDVI, NDMI and MNDWI were used to characterise vegetation condition and open-water dynamics and to assess their coupling with shoreline indicators. Results The shoreline is predominantly erosive, with mean EPR reaching about − 53 m yr⁻¹ in central sectors, while western cells remain weakly accretional (up to + 9 m yr⁻¹). Mangrove area and density show contrasting trajectories among sub-districts, ranging from sustained degradation to partial recovery and landward migration. At the coast-wide scale, shoreline–mangrove correlations are weak, but several districts exhibit strong negative coupling (r down to ≈ − 0.93), where pronounced abrasion coincides with mangrove loss and expanding water area. Conclusion Integrating shoreline metrics, mangrove density, and spectral proxies delineates three morphodynamic–ecological domains with distinct retreat regimes and management implications. Domain 1 (Tempuran–Tirtajaya) combines sustained retreat (EPR ≈ − 12.3 and − 6.9 m yr⁻¹) with steady mangrove recovery, consistent with nature-based protection potential. Domain 2 (Cilamaya Kulon–Cilebar) experiences extreme retreat (EPR ≈ − 53.4 and − 16.2 m yr⁻¹) but still shows partial mangrove rebound; across the full coast, dense mangrove cover increases by ~ 105 ha, supporting a targeted hybrid strategy in the most exposed sectors. Domain 3 reflects moderate abrasion/local accretion with weak or degrading mangrove trends, indicating where more transformative planning is required. These findings provide an evidence base for mangrove conservation, rehabilitation prioritization, and adaptive coastal management in dynamically evolving tropical shorelines. Coastal morphodynamics Mangrove dynamics Google Earth Engine North Coast of Java Nature-based solutions Abrasion Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8501712","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":571951843,"identity":"ba89f246-c276-4c2a-9de7-6d2d35815896","order_by":0,"name":"Roni 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Indonesia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Coastal morphodynamics, Mangrove dynamics, Google Earth Engine, North Coast of Java, Nature-based solutions, Abrasion","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8501712/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8501712/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003ePurpose\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eMangrove-fringed muddy coasts along the Java Sea provide critical coastal protection but are increasingly stressed by relative sea-level rise, subsidence and human modification. This study quantifies multidecadal shoreline and mangrove dynamics along the 84-km coast of Karawang, north Java, Indonesia (1995\u0026ndash;2025), and identifies coastal segments where mangrove-based measures can most effectively support nature-based coastal protection.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe derived shoreline change from a distance\u0026ndash;area shift (DAS) workflow in Google Earth Engine that mimics Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) transect statistics, estimating net shoreline movement (NSM), end-point rate (EPR) and a coastal shoreline position (CSP) index at 250-m segments within a 1-km coastal strip. Mangrove extent and structural density were mapped by adapting a mangrove vegetation index (vE3) and classifying sparse, moderate and dense canopies calibrated against recent high-resolution mapping. Time series of NDVI, NDMI and MNDWI were used to characterise vegetation condition and open-water dynamics and to assess their coupling with shoreline indicators.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe shoreline is predominantly erosive, with mean EPR reaching about \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;53 m yr⁻\u0026sup1; in central sectors, while western cells remain weakly accretional (up to +\u0026thinsp;9 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;). Mangrove area and density show contrasting trajectories among sub-districts, ranging from sustained degradation to partial recovery and landward migration. At the coast-wide scale, shoreline\u0026ndash;mangrove correlations are weak, but several districts exhibit strong negative coupling (r down to \u0026asymp;\u0026thinsp;\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.93), where pronounced abrasion coincides with mangrove loss and expanding water area.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntegrating shoreline metrics, mangrove density, and spectral proxies delineates three morphodynamic\u0026ndash;ecological domains with distinct retreat regimes and management implications. Domain 1 (Tempuran\u0026ndash;Tirtajaya) combines sustained retreat (EPR\u0026thinsp;\u0026asymp;\u0026thinsp;\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;12.3 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;6.9 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;) with steady mangrove recovery, consistent with nature-based protection potential. Domain 2 (Cilamaya Kulon\u0026ndash;Cilebar) experiences extreme retreat (EPR\u0026thinsp;\u0026asymp;\u0026thinsp;\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;53.4 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;16.2 m yr⁻\u0026sup1;) but still shows partial mangrove rebound; across the full coast, dense mangrove cover increases by ~\u0026thinsp;105 ha, supporting a targeted hybrid strategy in the most exposed sectors. Domain 3 reflects moderate abrasion/local accretion with weak or degrading mangrove trends, indicating where more transformative planning is required. These findings provide an evidence base for mangrove conservation, rehabilitation prioritization, and adaptive coastal management in dynamically evolving tropical shorelines.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Multidecadal morphodynamic evolution of mangrove-fringed shorelines in Karawang, Indonesia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-13 16:59:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8501712/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"82dbe4c2-8504-4de2-82fb-0000a860b0c2","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 13th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-13T16:59:27+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-13 16:59:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8501712","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8501712","identity":"rs-8501712","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}