Energy Efficiency as Employment Protection: Firm-Level Evidence from Electricity Price Shocks in Emerging Markets

Energy Efficiency as Employment Protection: Firm-Level Evidence from Electricity Price Shocks in Emerging Markets | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Energy Efficiency as Employment Protection: Firm-Level Evidence from Electricity Price Shocks in Emerging Markets Reyes Aterido, Mariana Lootty, Martin Melecky This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8262182/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Electricity price volatility is reshaping the competitive landscape for firms in emerging markets, yet evidence on how firms can shield jobs from these shocks is scarce. We provide the first high-frequency, multi-country causal estimates of how firm-level energy efficiency adoption moderates the labor market impact of electricity price spikes. Using quarterly-matched commercial tariff data and firm responses from the World Bank Business Pulse Survey (2019–2023) across 16 emerging economies, we implement a triple-difference identification strategy that interacts sectoral energy intensity with firm-level efficiency practices, instrumented by peer adoption rates. We find that a 1% increase in electricity prices reduces employment by 1.5% in energy-intensive firms without efficiency measures—nearly triple the average effect—while efficiency adopters suffer minimal losses and sometimes gain productivity. By quantifying the job-protection role of efficiency, our results reframe the policy trade-off between broad energy subsidies and targeted efficiency support, offering actionable guidance for fiscal policy and green industrial strategies in volatile energy markets. JEL Classification : D22, L25, Q41, Q43, O13. World Bank Business Pulse Survey Data Firm-level Panel Data Energy Prices Energy Intensity of Industries and Firms Firm Performance Productivity Sales Employment Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8262182","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":558306251,"identity":"7bbe5dea-cbc1-4641-a1df-0b8f79770b5a","order_by":0,"name":"Reyes 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