Sensitivity of Climate Analogues to Problem-Specific Adjustments: A Case Study

Sensitivity of Climate Analogues to Problem-Specific Adjustments: A Case Study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Sensitivity of Climate Analogues to Problem-Specific Adjustments: A Case Study Héloïse Allaman, Pierre-Henri Dubuis, Stéphane Goyette, Jérôme Kasparian This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8223548/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate analogues, which identify present-day locations resembling projected future climates, offer a powerful tool to support adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors. However, many existing applications rely on coarse climate model outputs and raw variables, often overlooking microclimatic variation and sector-specific climate metrics. In this study, we refine the climate analogue approach by proposing problem-specific improvements, consisting in incorporating bioclimatic indices tailored to vine growth and pathogens development, sub-grid topographic temperature corrections, and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce redundancy among variables. Using European vineyards as a case study, we conduct a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of each refinement on analogue identification. Each enhancement contributes significantly to the spatial distribution of selected analogues, with analogues shifting at the continental scale in some cases. Our results demonstrate the importance of using problem-specific indices, handling variable interdependence, and accounting for fine-scale climatic variability in climate analogue analyses. Though developed for viticulture, the methodology and insights are broadly applicable to other climate-sensitive systems, from agriculture to urban planning. Climate Analogues Climate Twins Climate Change Principal Component Analysis Bioclimatic Indices Sub-Grid Effects Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files supplementarymaterial.pdf TableS1.tex Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 02 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 29 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 01 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 01 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 27 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8223548","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":584576610,"identity":"e9f0cbdd-455b-441d-b8f1-d28e61daff29","order_by":0,"name":"Héloïse 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