Urbanization plays a minor role in the flooding and surface water chemistry of Puerto Rico’s mangroves

ABSTRACT Although hydrology and water chemistry are known to change in proximity to cities, there remains little empirical evidence connecting specific components of urban landscapes to mangrove flooding dynamics or surface water chemistry. This study constructs five-year water level models from tidal harmonics and precipitation inputs to characterize mangrove flooding across urban gradients in three watersheds of Puerto Rico. There was some evidence for an influence of urbanization on both flooding and water chemistry, but this depended on the definition of urbanness, and points instead to geomorphology as the primary culprit. Urban sites exhibited 46% longer hydroperiods and 450% lower depths than non-urban sites. Rainfall importance was explained more by geomorphology than by urbanization and suggested systems with limited tidal connectivity are four times more sensitive to rainfall than systems with full tidal connectivity. There was also evidence for changes in tidal amplitudes along the urban gradient, which may explain the observed differences in flooding. Relationships between surface water chemical metrics and land cover contradicted previous studies by suggesting lower nutrients and biochemical oxygen demand with increasing urbanization. These results reinforce the understanding that the most important drivers of urban mangrove hydrology and water quality in Puerto Rico are likely geomorphology and tidal connectivity, with little but not zero influence from surrounding land cover. Results should be considered alongside the reported errors stemming from inaccuracies in digital elevation and rainfall response models, and will be useful in understanding future ecological censuses on the island.