High Temperatures on TFP in China’s Industry Firms: Mechanisms, Heterogeneity and Regional Adaptation

High Temperatures on TFP in China’s Industry Firms: Mechanisms, Heterogeneity and Regional Adaptation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article High Temperatures on TFP in China’s Industry Firms: Mechanisms, Heterogeneity and Regional Adaptation Tao Ma, Qiqi Wang, Xiaolei Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8535843/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese industrial firms. Using panel data of Chinese A-share-listed industrial firms from 2004 to 2021, we measure TFP via the theoretically rigorous Ackerberg-Caves-Frazer (ACF) method and adopt a nonlinear temperature bin model. We find that extreme high temperatures (≥30°C) significantly reduce firm-level TFP. Mechanism analysis reveals that extreme high temperatures primarily exert this adverse effect by compelling firms to accelerate digital transformation, which in turn generates an immediate negative impact on TFP. Heterogeneity analysis uncovers substantial variations in this mechanism within the advanced manufacturing sector, as well as significant regional disparities. Adaptation analysis demonstrates that economically developed regions exhibit stronger resilience to such temperature shocks. Our findings highlight the necessity of precise, adaptive policies, emphasizing that tailoring strategies to specific regions and industries is critical for addressing their unique challenges. Temperature Shocks TFP Heterogeneity Adaptation Industry Firms China Full Text Additional Declarations Ethics approval and consent to participate: This study does not involve human participants, animal experiments, collection of personal data, or any other procedures that require ethical approval. Consent for publication: All authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript, and have provided written consent for its submission to and potential publication in Climatic Change . No author has withdrawn consent for publication, and there are no disputes among authors regarding the submission, content, or authorship of this work. Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. Author contributions: 1. Tao Ma: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing; 2. Qiqi Wang：Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Software, Supervision, Validation,Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing; 3. Xiaolei Wang: Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation,Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. Funding: The Major Program of National Fund of Philosophy and Social Science of China (Grant No. 23&ZD040). Availability of data and materials: Data available on request from the authors. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 08 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 07 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8535843","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":581667091,"identity":"ed00ae8c-cc01-47be-9b7d-d6507d8594a9","order_by":0,"name":"Tao Ma","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Harbin Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tao","middleName":"","lastName":"Ma","suffix":""},{"id":581667092,"identity":"d2ab75c4-62c4-4c08-8fe8-23fe216b689c","order_by":1,"name":"Qiqi Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Harbin Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qiqi","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":581667093,"identity":"8d82f081-4982-4435-83e0-077fcf536c75","order_by":2,"name":"Xiaolei Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABB0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfmb+gw8SDCTs+NkbQPwDPCBSAp8WyfaeZIMHFTbJkj0HGBtAWngIaTE4c8ZM8sGZNMYNNxLAWhgIamG4kZMmkdh2mNng5vPnj3kY7sjYMzAfvM3DYJeHSwfjjPzDFkAtfJK3cwybeRieAR3GlmzNw5BcjEsLs0RO4g2QLXy3cxiBWg4DtfCYSfMwHEhswKGFTSLHAOQwxoabxx9CtfB/w6uFh+eMkUQC0PsTbjAYwmxhw6tFgh0YyAngQM4xnDnHAKjlMJux5RyDZJxa7A/zH3z4AxyVxx98eFNx2J69vfnhjTcVdji1oAEDUIjAGKNgFIyCUTAKyAYAzCRXQnUJ4Y8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3531-0538","institution":"Harbin Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaolei","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-07 02:08:56","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8535843/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8535843/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102397533,"identity":"a0cb9a01-9bd1-4bdf-9cdd-797e32b23252","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-11 10:17:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":942889,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8535843/v1_covered_1f6679b2-3497-4c29-81eb-8008971f5bed.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEthics approval and consent to participate:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study does not involve human participants, animal experiments, collection of personal data, or any other procedures that require ethical approval.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConsent for publication:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript, and have provided written consent for its submission to and potential publication in \u003cem\u003eClimatic Change\u003c/em\u003e. No author has withdrawn consent for publication, and there are no disputes among authors regarding the submission, content, or authorship of this work.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting Interests:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor contributions:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1. Tao Ma: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review \u0026amp; editing;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e2. 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