Evaluating the Threats of Climate Change on Ocean Economies and Livelihoods in Africa

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However, climate change and their impacts are threatening the sustainability of this sector. Using a mixed-methods approach of qualitative and quantitative approaches as well as extensive literature materials, this paper evaluated the extent and nature of threats pose by climate change to the key coastal economies on the continent and adaptation strategies required to minimise the impacts of climate change on ocean economies. Our findings revealed that the vulnerabilities of Africa’s ocean economies are compounded by weak adaptive capacity, insufficient climate financing, and governance gaps in marine resource management. This study recommends policy reforms and alternative management strategies with much more focus on strengthening climate resilient strategies and adaptive mechanisms that integrate blue economy strategies into national policy, regional cooperation and a targeted investment in climate-smart infrastructure and community-based adaptation strategies. Furthermore, this study proposes an integration of ocean-based economic activities into long-term national climate and biodiversity plans that accelerate adaptation and improve resilience. Livelihoods Sustainable management Adaptation mechanisms Resilience Africa’s economies Coastal Livelihoods Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 1. Introduction Ocean economies in the forms of ocean tourism, fisheries, aquaculture, shipping, marine biotechnology, offshore energy and seabed mining contribute significantly to global economic growth and livelihoods (Marwan, 2023 ). Globally, ocean economies generate an estimated US $ 2.5 trillion annually in global gross value added (GVA) and support the livelihoods of over 3 billion people, particularly in coastal and island communities (Lubchenco et al., 2023). The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 2025 report stated that in 2023, the trade in ocean goods and services hit record highs of $ 899 billion and $ 1.3 trillion respectively, highlighting the growing importance of marine activities for coastal and island nations. Hara et al. (2022) stated that the fisheries sector alone is sustaining over 600 million people living mostly in developing countries. Similarly, Ahmad et al. ( 2023 ) express that the fisheries and aquaculture provide direct employment to over 60 million people globally and are responsible for the primary protein source of nearly 1 billion people, particularly in developing regions. Additionally, Matekenya et al. (2022) stated that the shipping industry, which handles over 80% of global trade by volume, is the backbone of the globalised economy, while offshore oil and gas account for roughly 30% of global hydrocarbon production. Correspondingly, the emerging sectors including marine biotechnology and offshore wind energy are poised to reshape the blue economy through innovation and decarbonisation (Fernandez-Palacious et al., 2023 ). However, the accelerating impacts of climate change are threatening these ocean-based industries (Talukder et al., 2023). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2022 report disclosed that ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and rising sea levels are disrupting marine ecosystems, damaging coastal infrastructure, shifting fish stocks, and intensifying extreme weather events since 1900. Lindsey (2022) stated that the global mean sea level has risen by over 20 cm since 1900, and is projected to rise by another 30–60 cm by 2100 under moderate emissions scenarios. Sea Fig. 1 . However, several researchers and scholars including Bailey et al. (2023), Jouffray et al. ( 2020 ) and Guyot-Téphany et al. (2024) are of the views that globally the ocean remains largely unexplored, with up to two-thirds of marine species still unidentified, thereby offering vast potentials. The marine biotechnology market, estimated at $ 4.2 billion in 2023, is set to reach $ 6.4 billion by 2025, driven by low-carbon marine foods, new antibiotics, and bio-based materials (UNCTAD, 2025). Africa is not immune to the opportunities and under development of ocean economies (Struwig et al., 2024 ). The ocean economy holds immense promise yet faces disproportionate risk due to limited adaptive capacity (Bennett, 2025). See Fig. 2 . The continent’s ocean economy is estimated to be worth over 405 billion dollars and can provide employment to over 50 million of its population, however the continent is currently utilising less than USD 296 billion worth suggesting almost 73% worth of its oceans resources are underutilised (Matekenya et al., 2024). Key sectors such as artisanal fisheries, maritime trade, port infrastructure, and coastal tourism are deeply exposed to climate-induced stressors (Meakins et al., 2022 ). Matekenya et al. (2024) cited South Africa’s blue economy as vital to the national development, with coastal provinces like the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal heavily reliant on marine tourism, shipping, and fisheries. Similarly, Awazi et al. (2025) stated that Morocco’s fisheries sector alone contributes over 3% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and provides employment to approximately 400,000 people. Ghana’s ocean economy including fishing, shipping, and offshore energy accounts for 6% of the country’s GDP and supports the livelihoods of over 2 million people, especially in coastal communities (Ayilu et al., 2023 ). While in Senegal ocean-based tourism industry accounts for 7% of its GDP and employs over 150,000 people, with plans to increase this share to 10% (Schumann et al., 2020). These statistics highlight the immense economic and social value of Africa’s coastal and marine resources, emphasizing the need for sustainable management amid growing climate change challenges. Table 1 display the leading country of ocean economies in Africa Table 1 The contributions of ocean economies in leading African countries Country Ocean Economy Contribution to GDP Employment in Ocean Economy South Africa $ 56 billion to GDP (4,4%) GDP (2023) Estimated jobs generated 1 million Morocco $ 144.42 billion USD (3%) of GDP 2023 Estimated jobs generated 3 million Ghana $ 76.37 billion USD (6%) of GDP (2022) Estimated jobs generated 2 million Senegal $ 31.01 billion USD (7%) of GDP (2023) Estimated jobs generated 750,000 Nigeria $ 362.81 billion USD (2,5%) GDP(2022) Estimated jobs generated 2 million Egypt $ 31.01 billion USD (1,1%) GDP (2021) Estimated jobs created2.67 million Tanzania $ 7.2 billion USD (6,5%) GDP (2020) Estimated jobs created 517,950 Kenya $ 56 billion USD (5.8%) GDP (2024) Estimated jobs generated 300,000 Madagascar $ 750 million annually (4,5%) (2023) Estimated jobs created 500,000 Somalia $$135 million annually (2,5%) (2023) Estimated jobs generated 400, 000 Source: African Development Bank, 2020 Despite these successes, ocean economies of many countries on the continent are significantly underutilised and operating far below their potential due to a combination of challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, unsustainable practices, lack of investment, ineffective policy frameworks, and the negative impacts of climate change (Zulu et al., 2023, Akpomera, 2020 ). Karani et al. ( 2022 ) argued that in spite of possessing vast marine resources and untapped opportunities in sectors like fisheries, maritime transport, tourism, and offshore oil and gas, many African nations, including Senegal, Kenya, Ghana, Tanzania and Mozambique, face barriers such as overfishing, lack of modern technology and weak governance, limiting their ability to fully capitalize on the ocean economy. Apart from the infrastructure, capacity limitations and governance weaknesses, climate change stands out as the greatest threat to Africa’s ocean economies (Chamma, 2024 ). This is due to significant and far-reaching and compounding implications. Das et al. ( 2024 ) argued that rising sea levels have contributed to coastal erosion, floods and saltwater intrusion, threatening critical infrastructure, tourism, and livelihoods of most coastal communities on the continent. Similarly, Venegas et al. ( 2023 ) stated that ocean warming is disrupting marine biodiversity and fish stocks, threatening the sustainability of small-scale fisheries that millions depend on. Additionally, Zhang et al. ( 2024 ) highlighted that extreme weather events such as cyclones and storms are becoming more frequent and intense, damaging ports, vessels, and aquaculture systems. Equally, Hall-Spencer et al. (2019) indicated that ocean acidification and the degradation of vital important carbon ecosystems like mangroves and seagrasses are weakening marine food chains and natural coastal defences. These changes are especially damaging to vulnerable coastal communities with limited adaptive capacity, deepening poverty, food insecurity, and migration pressures (Daraz et al., 2024 ). Moreover, climate change has impacted maritime transport and port infrastructure, disrupted trade and increased economic volatility (Dzebo, 2023 ). Collectively, these threats have undermined the current and long-term viability of Africa’s ocean-based development and pose significant risks to sustainable ocean economy initiatives across the continent (Adali et al., 2024 ). The World Aquaculture Society (WAS) 2023 report disclosed that fisheries and aquaculture are declining due to reduced fish stocks and habitat degradation, leading to projected losses exceeding $ 7 billion annually by 2050 on the continent. Furthermore, Lincoln et al. ( 2022 ) stated that the coastal tourism is at risk, as coral bleaching and shoreline erosion threaten major destinations, with expected losses reaching $ 6 billion. The shipping and port infrastructure face increasing disruption from storm surges and sea level rise, while offshore energy operations both fossil and renewable—are becoming more volatile (Bolan et al., 2024 ). Additionally, Wang et al. ( 2020 ) argues that coastal infrastructure damage, driven by flooding and erosion, is emerging as the most financially devastating impact, with losses projected to surpass $ 9 billion annually by 2050 on the continent. Table 2 summarises the past and projected implications of climate change to ocean economies in Africa. Table 2 The past and the future projections of climate change on ocean economies in Africa Year Fisheries (bn $ ) Tourism (bn $ ) Shipping (bn $ ) Energy (bn $ ) Infrastructure Damage (bn $ ) 2010 -1.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 2020 -2.1 -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.5 2030 -3.4 -2.2 -1.4 -1.6 -3.2 2040 -5.0 -3.8 -2.1 -2.5 -5.7 2050 -7.3 -6.0 -3.0 -3.7 -8.9 Source : United Nation Economic Commission for Africa, 2019 In light of these threats to livelihoods and economic consequences several researchers and scholars including Matekenya et al. (2024), Raubenheimer et al. (2023), and Doucouré et al. (2024) explored the extensivity on the sea-level rise, ocean warming, and extreme weather events and the threat to coastal communities, small-scale fisheries, and marine biodiversity, particularly in the West and East Africa sub-regions. Notwithstanding, very limited studies exist on the interdisciplinary research to assess policy coherence between national climate strategies and sustainable ocean economy development on the continent. Considering these gaps, this study evaluated the implications of climate change on ocean economies in Africa. Specifically, the study pursued these three research questions: (i) are there direct threats of climate change on ocean business in Africa? (ii) which economical activities are directly threatened by climate change? What adaptation strategies could be instituted to minimise the effects of climate change on ocean economies on the continent? 2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Study Area and the Justification While this study focuses on the entire ocean economies in Africa, data collection was however deliberately limited to five coastal countries Madagascar, Somalia, South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. See Fig. 2 . These countries were selected based on their geographic diversity, capturing different sub-regions on the continent, their varied ocean economy profiles, ranging from advanced maritime industries to small-scale fisheries, and the relative availability of reliable data. Furthermore, their active engagement in ocean economy initiatives and current policy frameworks provided a strong basis for assessment. Madagascar, was specifically chosen due to its spread-out of 5,500 km coastline, and the potential of the ocean economy to drive the national development agenda. Currently, the country is attracting significant foreign investment such as China’s $ 2.7 billion commitment to fisheries, shipbuilding, and aquaculture. Furthermore, sustainable ventures like sea cucumber farming, supported by Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) like Blue Ventures, are significant potentials that can improve livelihoods and reduce poverty by 15% while conserving marine biodiversity in the country. Somalia, is included into this study due to its vast potential in ocean economy. The country boasts of 3,000 km of coastline and rich marine biodiversity, and significantly untapped potentials in the sector. The monsoon-fed waters support abundant fisheries, and improved maritime security has the ability to grow the sector if well managed. With a strong sustainability profile and vast stocks of underexploited pelagic fish like Indian oil sardines, Somalia is well-positioned to expand its ocean economy while avoiding past pitfalls of overfishing. Ocean economy in Kenya contributes only 2.5% of its GDP from this source despite its 200,000-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone and access to the tuna-rich Western Indian Ocean. Kenya’s domestic industry, if well managed, can triple the current contribution to the GDP and create million jobs in the next five years. South Africa was picked as a case study due to its advanced ocean economy infrastructure under the ambitious Operation Phakisa strategy, targeting marine transport, aquaculture, offshore oil and gas, and marine protection. With 4,000 km of coastline and access to global trade routes, the country projects an addition of R177 billion ( $ 9.6 billion) to its GDP and over 1 million jobs by 2033. However, challenges remain, such as the underutilization of its shipping industry, which it aims to remedy through local ship registry expansion and seafarer training. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, sees significant blue economy opportunities in shipbuilding, aquaculture, and offshore development. Years of underinvestment have led to capital flight in ship repairs and cargo transport, but the government is now prioritizing infrastructure upgrades and establishing a national carrier to retain oil export revenue. Marine salvage, too, is gaining momentum as a dual solution for revenue generation and environmental clean-up. 2.2. Research Design This research utilised critical multidisciplinary design to extensively examine the opportunities and the threats posed by climate change on Africa’s ocean economies. The amalgamation of qualitative and quantitative methods in the form of interviews, questionnaires, spatial analysis, econometric modelling and geospatial analysis, and content materials in the form of policies and legislative frameworks, book chapters, journals and conference presentations were used to explore how climate change is reshaping marine ecosystems, disruption of conventional livelihoods of coastal communities as well as destruction of infrastructure sustaining ocean economies. Specifically, the qualitative method was to captures rich, context-specifics of ocean businesses, insights into perceptions of climate change of ocean activities, the vulnerabilities of coastal communities to climate change, and localised adaptation to climate change. The quantitative dimension was used to provide empirical evidence on measurable trends such as sea level rise, shifts in fish stocks and economic losses in ocean economies due to climate change. The secondary materials were used to obtained data involving historical climate records, national policies and the limitations to achieve full potentials of ocean economies in Africa 2.3. Sampling Techniques, Population Size and Data Collection Strategies A purposive sampling technique was employed to select a total of ten key respondents, comprising two individuals each from South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Madagascar, and Somalia. Purposive sampling, also known as judgemental sampling according to Campbell et al. ( 2020 ), is a technique used in qualitative research to select a specific group of individuals or units for analysis. This technique assisted the researcher to include respondents with direct knowledge and experience related to the impacts of climate change on ocean economies in Africa. Respondents were drawn from two strategically important institutions in each country: the national Department or Ministry of Environment, a leading marine or ocean research institute, such as the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa and the Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR) in Nigeria. In Kenya, participants were drawn from the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI) and the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry. In Somalia, respondents came from the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change and the Somali Maritime University. Whereas in Madagascar, participants were selected from the Institut Halieutique et des Sciences Marines (IH.SM) at the University of Toliara and the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development. All the interviews were conducted remotely, using telephone calls and email correspondence from June to December 2024. The remote approach was adopted to accommodate geographic dispersion of respondents and to minimise costs. In addition, a random sampling approach was employed to select respondents from the same five countries. The random method was adopted to ensure broad representation in assessing the impacts of climate change on ocean economies. A total of 800 out of 1500 questionnaires were received from various online platforms including emails, social media sharing involving Facebook, Twitter (X), LinkedIn, or WhatsApp groups, Google Forms, SurveyMonkey, Qualtrics, Microsoft Forms as well as Institutional Websites across the five countries. In order to accommodate respondents from diverse linguistic backgrounds, a Google Translator, one of the most commonly used online translation devices, was attached to the questionnaires to assist non-English speakers in interpreting the questions in English. Ethical approval for the study was obtained prior to data collection, and all procedures adhered to ethical research standards. The quantitative data distribution and collection also occurred from June to December 2024. 2.4. Data Analysis The data analysis process employed a mixed-methods approach. The qualitative data obtained through the interviews, were analysed using a thematic technique. Thematic analysis according to Naeem et al. ( 2023 ) is the study of patterns to uncover meaning. In other words, it’s about analysing the patterns and themes within your data set to identify the underlying meaning. This approach was used to identify, analyse, and report key patterns and themes related to the impacts of climate change on ocean economies. The quantitative data collected via questionnaires, were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software of 2023. This technique propelled data to be grouped into frequency tables and draw graphs for easy reading and interpretation. 3. Empirical Evidence The analysis of this paper was structured based on the three hypothetical questions set up in the questionnaire, which include: The threats of climate change on ocean economic activities, the main businesses directly impacted by climate change and the innovative adaptation mechanisms to minimise the implications. 3.1. Demographic Background of Respondent The demographic information was deemed necessary in this research as it provides diverse perspectives and equitable representation in the coastal economic activities on the continent, given the continent’s socio-economic and cultural diversity. Table 3 reflects the background of the respondents Demographic Variables Groupings Number of Respondents Percentage of Respondents Total No. Respondents Gender Male 380 47% 800 Female 420 53% 800 Ages 18–24 108 14% 800 25–34 205 26% 800 35–44 155 19% 800 45–54 222 28% 800 55+ 110 14% 800 Marital Status Single 105 13% 800 Married 550 69% 800 Divorced 90 11% 800 Undisclosed 55 7% 800 Educational Background No Basic Edu. 85 11% 800 Basic Edu. 118 15% 800 Secondary Edu. 180 23% 800 Bachelor Degree 289 36% 800 Postgraduate 128 16% 800 Geographical Location Rural Coastal Community 315 39% 800 Urban Coastal Community 429 53% 800 Undisclosed 56 7% 800 Employment Status Public Sector 225 28% 800 Private Sector 400 50% 800 NGOs 55 9% 800 Local Service provider 88 11% 800 Undisclosed 32 4% 800 Sector of Employment Aquaculture Activities 185 23% 800 Agriculture 122 15% 800 Tourism and Hospitality Sector 380 47% 800 Port Related Activities 96 12% 800 Undisclosed 17 2% 800 Income Bracket Lower Income (< $ 300) 250 31% 800 Middle Income ( $ 300- $ 1000) Upper Middle ( $ 1000- $ 3000) 330 108 41% 14% 800 800 Undisclosed 132 17% 800 Source Online Survey The results from Table 3 reveal a diverse group of the 800 respondents, with a nearly balanced gender distribution. Out of the total responses received, 420 (equating to 53%) were females, against 380 or 47% males. The majority of the respondents, that is 105 of 28%, were in the age group of 45 − 44 years. A larger portion of the respondents are well-educated, with 50% of them holding at least a bachelor's degree or higher. Geographically, the respondents are slightly more urban-based coastal communities (53%) than rural (39%). The income levels are broadly distributed, with most individuals falling within the low to upper-middle income brackets, while 14% earn high incomes. The majority of the respondents are married (69%), and employment is primarily concentrated in the private sector (50%), followed by the public sector (28%) and local service (11%). The respondents are actively involved in tourism and the hospitality industry, (47%) followed by fishing (23%). 3.2. The Correlation between Climate Change and Ocean Economic Activities This paper measured the relationship between climate change and the ocean economies in Africa. Respondents were asked to indicate whether climate change has a bearing on their economic activities and livelihoods. Figure 3 reflects the perspectives of respondents. The results obtained suggest that a significant majority (88%) believed that climate change has either direct or indirect impacts on the ocean economies in Africa. This is in sharp contrast to only 10% who hold the view that climate change has no implications on ocean businesses on the continent. 3.2.1. Key Climate Change Phenomena Affecting Ocean-Based Economies in Africa Based on the responses listed in section 3.2 of this paper, respondents were asked to indicate which of the climate change variables have the most significant impacts on the ocean economies. Figure 4 depicts the perspectives of respondents. The results revealed that the majority of the respondents’ regard floods and storms as the most significant and eminent threat to ocean economies to coastal communities across the continent. Out of 800 responses received, 620 translating to 78%, mentioned these variables. This is immediately followed by coastal erosion, sea level rise and ocean acidification, mentioned in 440, 420 and 400 responses respectively. These statistical evidences were validated by interviews conducted. A climate change researcher in CSIR based in Pretoria South Africa stated this in an interview: “Sea level rise is no longer a future scenario for South Africa’s eastern coastline it’s already eroding infrastructure in areas like Durban and Port St. Johns”. He reiterated that “with every passing storm surge, we lose roads, beachfronts, and sometimes homes”. Another climate change researcher from the University of Antananarivo in Madagascar stated that: “We’re witnessing more intense cyclones and erratic weather patterns along the eastern coast. These storms not only destroy fishing boats and coral reefs but have displaced entire communities in the regions of Mananjary and Toamasina over the last few years. Ocean warming has significantly reduced fish stocks, undermining the livelihoods of thousands of coastal fishers”. A prominent climate scientist in marine ecology, working with a regional climate resilience initiative in Somalia, shared these sentiments when engaged for her views: Storm surges and sea level rise are increasingly reshaping Africa’s coastal economies. Without urgent adaptation measures, coastal urban centres in countries like South Africa, Madagascar, Somalia and Ghana will face compounding economic, social, and environmental losses A common consensus from the engagements suggest that that sea level rise, ocean warming, ocean acidification and increasingly severe floods and storms are the most pressing threats to coastal communities in Africa particularly in Southern Africa, the west coastline particularly in Ghana and Nigeria, the Indian ocean in Madagascar, and East Africa in Mombasa in Somalia and Dar es Salaam, which are already facing widespread damage to infrastructure, fisheries, and livelihoods due to climate change. 3.3. The Correlation between Climate Change and Ocean Economies in Africa This study explored extensively the connection between climate variabilities and ocean economies in Africa. Respondents were asked to mention the key economic activities directly impacted by climate change. Table 4 reflects the answers of respondents Table 4 The correlation between climate change and key sectors in the ocean economies Sector of the Economy No. of Respondents Percentage (%) Correlations to of the Sector to Climate Change Agriculture and food security 540 (800) 68% Drought, erratic rainfall and reduced crop yield Fisheries and marine resources 620 (800) 78% Ocean warming, acidification and declining fish stock Water resources 700 (800) 88% Decreased freshwater availability, drying rivers and saltwater intrusion Coastal Infrastructure 455 (800) 57% Flooding, erosion, sea-level rise affecting coastal towns and cities Health 355 (800) 44% Spread of diseases like malaria, malnutrition and heat-related illness Tourism 530 (800) 66% Coral bleaching, biodiversity loss and climate-disrupted travel pattern Forestry and biodiversity 420 (800) 53% Loss of ecosystem, habitat destruction, wildfires Energy (Hydro, thermal etc.) 300 (800) 38% Hydropower reliability affecting rainfall variability and high temperatures Transport and logistics 600 (800) 75% Flooded roads, disrupted ports, rising maintenance costs Education 280 (800) 35% Climate disasters forcing school closure, reduced access in rural/climate-affected areas Source : Online survey The responses obtained demonstrate that climate change has significant impacts on various ocean economic sectors. Of the ten sectors appraised seven of them were mentioned and identified above 50% as severely impacted by climate change. For instance, 700 out of 800, translating to 88%, indicate that climate change has significant impact on water resources, 78% mentioned the fishing industry, 75%, 68%, and 66% identified respectively transport and logistics, food security and tourism as sectors impacted by climate change. Considering these statistics analysis, the study evaluated how climate change has impacted these key sectors over the past ten years. Table 5 depicts the outcomes. The outcome revealed the trend of climate change impacts on ocean economies in Africa over the past decade (2015–2024). The graph demonstrates that climate change has caused a significant and accelerating decline across key economic sectors on the continent, with agriculture experiencing the steepest drop in yields from 2.1–5.6%. This is due to increasing droughts, erratic rainfall, and soil degradation. Fisheries followed closely, declining from 1.5–5.0%, as warming seas and ocean acidification disrupted marine ecosystems and fish stocks critical to coastal livelihoods. Water resources, coastal infrastructure, and health have also suffered pronounced impacts, with freshwater availability shrinking and extreme weather damaging essential infrastructure while worsening public health outcomes. Tourism, forestry, energy, transport, and education showed more moderate but steady declines, reflecting indirect yet growing consequences such as ecosystem damage, infrastructure stress, and increased school absenteeism due to climate-related displacement. These statistical analyses were augmented by online interviews with important players in the sector. An employee with Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR) expressed this in an interview: Over the years the rising sea levels and intense coastal erosion are disrupting port operations, especially in Lagos. For instance, Apapa Port has experienced frequent flooding, which has caused shipping delays and infrastructure damages”. The interviewee cited a 2022 World Bank report that identified that coastal erosion in West Africa is costing the region over $ 3.8 billion annually, with Nigeria accounting for about $ 1.3 billion of that. “This stand as significant threats to maritime trade, which makes up more than 90% of Nigeria’s import and export routes A climate change researcher at the Somali Maritime University stated this in an interview: “Climate change is significantly impacting fisheries along the East African coast. We’re seeing warming ocean temperatures and acidification impacting fish stocks. For example, Kenya’s annual marine fish production has declined from 9,000 tonnes in 2010 to around 6,000 tonnes in recent years. That’s a drop of over 30%, which directly affects the livelihoods of over 13,000 artisanal fishers in the country”. Similarly, another climate change expert based in Cape Town, South Africa expressed these sentiments in an interview: Our abalone farming used to be predictable, but now we have extreme temperature fluctuations and increased storm surges affecting water quality and farm structures. The Western Cape aquaculture sector has seen losses of over R100 million (approximately $ 5.3 million) over the past five years due to climate-related events. These unpredictable changes are making small-scale aquaculture increasingly unviable for many farmers like myself." A common view that emanated from other interviewees suggest that ocean acidification and changing current patterns are impacting plankton and the entire ocean economies threatening the sustainability and livelihoods of coastal communities in Africa. 3.4. Adaptation Strategies to Minimise Climate Change Impacts on Ocean Economies in Africa This paper explored the adaptive strategies required to minimise the impacts of climate change on ocean economies in Africa. Respondents were asked to identify alternative and coping mechanisms to reduce the impacts of climate change on the ocean economies. Table 4 reflects the answers of respondents. Strategies Description of the strategy No. of Respondents Percentage(%) Blue Carbon Ecosystem Protection Restoration and conservation of mangroves, seagrasses, etc. 656 82% Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) Climate-integrated planning for marine space use 560 70% Climate-Smart Fishing Promote sustainable fishing, aquaculture, and stock monitoring. 704 88% Climate-Resilient Port Infrastructure Build or upgrade ports to withstand climate impacts 520 65% Blue Economy Financing (e.g., Blue Bonds) Climate finance for ocean resilience and entrepreneurship. 576 72% Marine Renewable Energy Deployment Tidal, wave, and offshore wind energy investments 544 68% Coastal Early Warning Systems Digital alert systems for storms, floods, and sea surges 728 91% Community-Led Ocean Governance Empower local communities in managing resources. 696 64% Eco-Friendly Blue Tourism Promote low-impact, sustainable coastal tourism. 600 75% Ocean Data and Innovation Hubs Promote local marine research and digital innovation 632 79% Source : Online survey The survey of 800 respondents uncovered a robust support for innovative strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the continent’s ocean economies. Out of 800 responses received 728, translating to 91%, regarded early warning systems as the most innovative strategy to minimise climate change impact on ocean economies; this is immediately followed by climate-smart fisheries cited by 88%, while 87% mentioned community-led ocean governance as a way forward to the minimise the impacts. At the same time, strategies such as marine spatial planning, blue economy financing, and marine renewable energy, and ocean data and innovation hubs were mentioned by 70%, 72%, 68% and 79% respectively. These statistical breakdowns were bolstered by views from experts in the sector. Marine Policy Analyst at Institut Halieutique et des Sciences Marines (IH.SM) at the University of Toliara in Madagascar said this in an interview: Women in our community have started seaweed farming cooperatives, not just as a livelihood, but as a form of carbon sequestration. These farms help reduce wave energy that causes erosion. If more support went into scaling such blue carbon practices, we could transform our coastlines from fragile to resilient An Ocean Economist, based in Durban in KwaZulu-Natal expressed this in an interview: “We need to move beyond paper policies. For instance, co-developing ocean resilience strategies with local fishing communities such as integrating early warning systems with local indigenous knowledge”. The interviewee reiterated that “when communities understand and trust the science they will participate in. This innovation must bridge traditional knowledge with tech”. A Marine Conservation Biotechnologist, Kenya also shared this view in an interview: “Our ports and fisheries are already being impacted by sea-level rise. We are working with AI-driven satellite mapping to predict habitat shifts and guide artisanal fishermen to new fishing grounds. This kind of adaptive planning rooted in local data should be central to Africa’s ocean economic strategy”. Other insightful sentiments shared by interviewees include rethinking of marine spatial planning and participatory Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping to zone marine areas for ecotourism, fishing, and conservation. 4. Discussions The discussions of this study is structured according to the objectives set up at the beginning of the paper which include the key climate variables impacting the ocean economies in Africa, the correlation between climate change and ocean economies and the alternative strategies required to minimise the implications of climate change on ocean economies on the continent. 4.1. The Key Climate Change Phenomena Impacting the Ocean Economies in Africa The key findings of Figs. 3 and 4 , and views from climate scientists who were engaged established that over the past five decades, coastal communities across Africa have experienced a marked escalation in climate change induced phenomena, with serious implications for livelihoods, ecosystems, and national economies. One of the remarkable findings of Fig. 4 revealed that the frequency of floods and storms has surged, in most of coastal communities on the continent, experiencing tenfold increase since the 1970s. It was uncovered that rising ocean levels are threatening dozens of the continent’s rapidly expanding coastal metropolises, resulting in shrinking land areas with coastal flooding becoming more powerful than storm surges. Simultaneously, sea level rise is accelerating, averaging over 3.5 mm annually and contributing to widespread coastal erosion that now affects more than half of West Africa’s coastlines. Additional findings of Fig. 4 revealed that marine heatwaves, once rare, now occur multiple times each year, while the incidence of intense cyclones such as Freddy and Idai have dramatically risen, becoming frequent and more deadly and displacing more of the coastal population, running into millions of people. The accompanying graphs illustrate the upward trends: a steady rise in flood events, the consistent annual increase in sea level rise, more frequent marine heatwaves, and a notable uptick in extreme cyclone events Figure 4 further revealed that climate change phenomena are also manifested in the warming of oceans, acidification, salt intrusion and other extreme weather events. The underlying findings of Fig. 4 , views from climate scientists engaged as well as numerous literature revealed that the continent’s coastal regions are increasingly exposed to interlinked oceanic threats including ocean acidification, warming seas, and saltwater intrusion driven largely by rising greenhouse gas emissions and regional environmental pressures. It was established that ocean acidification is driven by the ocean’s absorption of excessive atmospheric CO₂, thus reducing seawater pH and impairing marine life, including calcification of shellfish, such as oyster and coral. For instance, in Ghana the Volta Estuary, oyster farmers report over 40% decline in spat survival, with estuarine pH levels dropping to critical thresholds. These findings are augmented by Roxy et al. (2020) namely that ocean warming is as a resulted of oceans absorbing over 90% of global heat hence raising sea surface temperatures up to 1.2°C in regions such as the Western Indian and Atlantic Oceans. It was mentioned that these phenomena have contributed significantly to mass coral bleaching in Kenya’s Mombasa Marine Park and over a 25% decline in tuna catches in Seychelles since 2015, undermining food security and export earnings. Additionally, Fig. 4 uncovered that saltwater intrusion driven by sea-level rise, groundwater overuse, and river flow reduction is contaminating freshwater aquifers and degrading coastal farmland. In Egypt up to 15% of arable land is now saline affected, while in Senegal’s Saloum Delta, saltwater has advanced more than 50 km inland, collapsing traditional rice farming systems. These stressors are not only disrupting biodiversity but also threatening the economic and physical survival of millions living in Africa’s coastal zones, where data limitations and inadequate monitoring continue to hinder timely, science-based adaptation. 4.2. The Correlation between Climate Change and Ocean Economies in Africa An overwhelming finding of Table 4 revealed that climate change has a direct and measurable implication on ocean economies across the continent, with consequences becoming increasingly visible to livelihoods and economic growth in these communities and the GDPs of the countries. Numerous authors including Nhantumbo et al. (2023) and Griggs et al. (2021) revealed that more than 117 million people in Africa reside in low-elevation coastal zones, and their livelihoods and infrastructure are increasingly threatened by climate-induced pressures. The underlying findings of Fig. 5 uncovered that sea levels along African coasts are rising at approximately 3.6 millimetres annually faster than the global average resulting in significant erosion and infrastructure loss. Nhantumbo et al. (2023) stated that the continent’s coastlines have experienced a steady rise in sea levels and at the current pace, sea levels are projected to rise by 0.3 meters by 2030, affecting 117 million Africans. If global warming is contained to 2˚C above the 1990 levels, sea level rise may be limited to 0.4 meters. However, a 4˚C level of global warming would lead to a 1-meter rise in sea levels by the end of the century. The findings of Table 4 and Fig. 5 suggest that the impact of ocean warming and other climate change phenomena on the continent is significant and devastating. The underlying findings of Table 4 and Fig. 5 , established that from West to East and South to the island nations on the continent, water resources, marine ecosystems, fisheries, transport, tourism, agriculture, and food security are all under siege. It was established that social and economic consequences of climate change are most acutely and more directly felt among coastal populations dependent on fishing and other marine resources such as salt production, and other small-scale livelihoods. Our engagements with key players in the sector exposed that across the continent, more than 12.3 million people depend directly on fisheries for food and income. For instance, in Kenya, warming sea temperatures have shifted fish migration patterns, reducing nearshore fish stocks by an estimated 20% in the last 10 years. These developments have dramatically affected artisanal fishing communities, particularly in Kilifi and Lamu in Kenya, where 65% of local protein intake comes from marine sources. The decline is worsening nutritional insecurity and increasing youth unemployment in these coastal towns. Similarly, in Ghana Climate change is driving a severe crisis in the fishing industry, threatening the livelihoods of over 2.7 million people. The sea surface temperatures have risen between 1 0 C to 1.5°C since the 1960s, disrupting fish migration and reducing plankton, which has caused small pelagic fish landings to drop by over 80% from 120,000 tonnes in the 1990s to just 20,000 tonnes by 2020. The artisanal fishing, which supply over 80% of the country’s fish, are unable to access deeper waters, leading to income losses of up to 40%. Furthermore, coastal erosion up to 2 meters per year in areas like Keta and Ada has destroyed landing sites and displaced fishing communities. Ironically, Ghana now imports over 60% of its fish consumption (around 600,000 tonnes annually), undermining food security and economic resilience. Furthermore, important findings of Table 4 established that climate change has severe strain on Africa’s water resources, affecting the health, food systems, energy, and ecosystems. The underlying findings of Table 4 and views from important players in this sector revealed that currently, over 300 million people on the continent are facing water scarcity, and this number could rise to 700 million by 2030. These will be due to increasing droughts, erratic rainfall, and rising temperatures. A noteworthy finding of the survey uncovered that in East Africa, repeated droughts have dried rivers and dams, while Lake Chad has shrunk by 90% since the 1960s, affecting over 30 million people. Similarly, Southern Africa has seen severe urban water shortages, with Cape Town’s 2018 “Day Zero” crisis as a stark warning. Glacial melting in the Rwenzori Mountains and Mount Kilimanjaro is disrupting major rivers, while floods in West Africa region such as Nigeria in 2022 have contaminated drinking water and displaced over a million people. Other findings of Table 4 established that coastal tourism is a pillar of many African ocean economies. It was established that tourism accounts for more than $ 25 billion in GDP contributions across coastal African countries and supports over 6.5 million jobs. However, the underlying findings of Fig. 4 , revealed that rising sea temperatures and coral bleaching are degrading marine attractions in most countries on the continent particularly Kenya, Tanzania, and Seychelles. It was uncovered that in South Africa, extreme weather events and shoreline erosion have impacted tourism-dependent cities like Durban. For instance, the 2022 floods alone caused damages worth approximately $ 1 billion. Similarly, in Seychelles, nearly 90% of the population and infrastructure are located in low-lying coastal areas; projected climate-related damages could cost the country between 7% and 8% of its annual GDP by 2050. Furthermore, the frequent flood-related delays at the Port of Lagos in Nigeria, cost the economy an estimated $ 2 billion annually. The Cyclone Idai in 2019 devastated Mozambique’s port facilities and transport corridors, resulting in economic damages exceeding $ 1.4 billion and crippling regional supply chains. Another significant finding of Table 4 , uncovered that climate change also has direct implications on ecosystems, human well-being, and sustainable development particularly on coastal communities on the continent. The key findings in Table 4 suggest that rising sea levels, saltwater intrusion, and stronger storm surges are degrading coastal forests especially mangroves in countries such as Mozambique, Ghana and Senegal, where up to 35% of mangrove cover has been lost. This loss of natural buffers is accelerating biodiversity decline by destroying habitats critical for marine life, birds, and endemic species. Moreover, human health is increasingly at risk, as warmer temperatures and flooding heighten the spread of waterborne and vector-borne diseases like cholera and malaria. For instance, coastal communities in Sierra Leone and Ghana have seen increased outbreaks of diarrheal disease following climate-related floods. Energy infrastructure is also under threat, with sea-level rise and sedimentation disrupting coastal thermal and hydropower systems in places like Kenya and Tanzania, reducing electricity reliability and efficiency. Education is not spared from flooding and erosion regularly damage schools and roads in coastal communities, particularly in Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, where thousands of students face repeated class disruptions. Rising climate-related hardship also leads to increased dropout rates, especially among girls. For instance, the 2021 World Bank report stated that climate-related events, such as flooding and erosion, damage educational infrastructure in coastal areas, which will contribute to school closures and increased dropout rates, especially among girls. 4.3. Adaptation Strategies to Minimise Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Economies in Africa An overwhelming finding of Table 4 suggests that minimising the economic impacts of climate change on the ocean economies in Africa will require an integrated adaptation approach. This entails amalgamating technological innovation, community-based governance, environmental stewardship, and a localised adaptation approach. See Fig. 5 . The underlying message of Table 4 revealed that prioritising early warning systems (EWS) is the key and most important mechanism to reduce severe impacts of climate on livelihoods and mitigate economic damage. The majority of the respondents and interviewees alluded that an effective early EWS propel timely evacuations, protect marine livelihoods and infrastructure, support climate-resilient planning, stabilise coastal economic activities, and preparedness through localised, culturally relevant communication. These findings are also shared by Islam et al. (2025) namely that EWS are essential tools for alleviating the effects of natural hazards, particularly floods, cyclones, and droughts, by giving early warnings and actionable information. Olaoye et al. (2024) identified Japan as a success case where EWS have assisted in minimising the impacts of natural disasters, such as tsunamis, earthquakes, and severe storms on coastal communities and a 21% reduction in total economic damages from natural disasters (as a share of GDP) compared to the 1950s and 1960s. Another important finding of Table 4 , revealed that climate-smart and adaptive fishing practices are important strategies to minimise climate change impacts on the ocean economies on the continent. The underlying views of climate-smart fishing suggest that it promotes adaptive fishing practices, establish marine protected areas, adopt low-emission technologies, diversifying livelihoods, and utilising early warning systems. These fishing strategies enhance ecosystem resilience, protect marine resources, and sustain coastal livelihoods. Community-led ocean governance is another adaptation strategy revealed in Table 4 . The underpinning views of this approach suggest that it promotes sustainable resource management, protect critical coastal ecosystems, integrate traditional knowledge, reduce conflicts and ensure equity. Furthermore, community-led ocean governance enhance compliance and monitoring, while supporting livelihood diversification, all of which strengthen local resilience, conserve marine biodiversity, and sustain economic activities in the face of climate-related challenges. These findings are also shared by McCabe et al. ( 2024 ) on the case of Madagascar’s Velondriake initiative, a locally managed marine area (LMMA), which have doubled octopus yields and boosted household incomes by over 30% through seasonal closures and locally enforced regulations. These models underscore the significance of empowering communities with legal recognition, capacity building, and institutional support to steward marine resources sustainably. Another important finding of Table 4 found that the protection and restoration of blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes, which serve both as carbon sinks and natural coastal defences are equally important to minimise climate change on ocean economies. These strategies minimise the impacts of climate change on ocean economies by enhancing carbon sequestration, protecting coastal infrastructure from erosion and storms, support fisheries and food security, increase resilience to sea-level rise, and creating sustainable livelihoods through nature-based solutions. Currently, some West African countries such as Guinea-Bissau and Senegal are piloting carbon-financed mangrove projects that will generate income through verified carbon credits while enhancing climate resilience. Ocean data and innovation hubs were mentioned by a significant number of respondents and interviewees as an adaptation strategy to reduce climate change impacts on the ocean economies in Africa. The underlying perspectives of this strategy revealed that it generates real-time, science-based information that supports early warning systems, sustainable marine resource management, adaptive policy-making, and the development of innovative blue economy solutions that strengthen resilience, reduce risk, and enhance livelihoods in coastal communities. Similar views were also shared by South African International Maritime Institute (SAIMI, 2024 ) that Africa must urgently invest in improved ocean data infrastructure and innovation systems. Currently, Institutions such as the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI) and the South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON) are scaling up regional capabilities in ocean monitoring, AI-driven forecasting, and marine research to boost ocean economies across the continent. However, it critical to strengthening partnerships between governments, academia, industry, and communities to foster a new generation of ocean scientists and entrepreneurs across the continent. Other important findings of Table 4 revealed that promoting marine spatial planning, building climate-resilient port infrastructure, securing blue economy financing, marine renewable energy deployment, and advocating for eco-friendly blue tourism collectively help achieve the objectives of minimising climate change impacts on ocean economies. These strategies will ensure sustainable use of marine resources, protection and sustainability of coastal infrastructure and livelihoods, mobilising sufficient investment for climate-resilient development, advancing low-carbon energy transitions, as well as promoting environmentally responsible tourism that supports ecosystem conservation and inclusive economic growth across the continent. 5. Conclusion In conclusion, this paper provides invaluable insights into ocean economy’s contributions to the continent’s economic growth and livelihood opportunities. It was established that, in spite of potentials of the sector, climate change is posing serious threats to the sustainability continent’s ocean economies. Rising sea levels, ocean acidification and increasing frequency of extreme weather events are contributing to degrading marine ecosystems, reducing fish harvest, and damaging coastal infrastructure. These implications are particularly severe for small-scale fishing industries, subsistent farming and tourism dependent communities, exacerbating poverty and inequalities on the continent. This study recommends a significant investment in climate-resilient infrastructure to protect coastal communities and sustaining marine resources. Furthermore, it is suggested that encouraging regional cooperation, knowledge sharing among countries will strengthen maritime security, harmonise policies, and share innovations and best practices that will boost resilience and economic growth across shared ocean ecosystems. Additionally, the study proposes bolstering adaptive capacity and integrating socio-economic and environmental sustainability to be central to long-term ocean governance. This will ensure a balance use of ocean resources, protect ecosystems, support livelihoods, as well as promoting inclusive growth for the current and future generations across the continent. Further Research While this study explores extensively the impacts of climate change on ocean economies in Africa, further studies are, however, required in the areas such as technological advancement; particularly how emerging technologies such as marine-based renewable energy, climate-resilient infrastructure, digital ocean monitoring systems, and AI-powered early warning tools can be locally adapted, scaled, and sustainably financed to strengthen the resilience and productivity of Africa's blue economies. Declarations Conflict of Interest The author declares there is no conflict. Author Contribution RKA: Collected data and wrote the entire manuscript Data Availability Statement Data supporting the findings of this study are available upon request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available because of privacy and ethical restrictions. References Adali, Z., Toygar, A., Karatos, A. M., & Yildirim, U. (2024). 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7121646","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":494927635,"identity":"fa3e0d18-cf5c-43a6-9f9d-69be49f121d6","order_by":0,"name":"Richard Kwame Adom","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA70lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZgY2MAkGCRUgNnMDCVoenAGxGQloYUDSwviwDUzh12Lezvzswc891rIbjp9OfJA4rzaavx2o5UfFNpxaZA6zmRv2PEs33nAmd7NB4rbjuTMOMzYw9py5jVOLBDMPmwTPgcOJGw7kbpNI3HYstwGohZmxDb8WyT8gLeffbv+ROOdY7nxitEiDbbmRu40hsaEmdwNhLWxm0jIH0o1n3ni7WSLh2IHcjUAtB/H6hf/wM8k3B6xl+87nbvz4o6Yud975wwcf/KjArQUGYHFxGEweIKgeSUsdMYpHwSgYBaNghAEARrZfeuuRS4oAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Witwatersrand","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Richard","middleName":"Kwame","lastName":"Adom","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-14 13:23:34","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7121646/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7121646/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88196320,"identity":"1cb3fdd1-50a3-4087-a85b-6b2680719043","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-03 17:07:30","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":262932,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eProjected rise of the sea level up to 2100\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7121646/v1/99e3c4a63decf29a5a955f60.png"},{"id":88196321,"identity":"cc580c23-8d95-4c6c-9d3b-c69741fc6a76","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-03 17:07:30","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":158834,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe figure below illustrates the gap between Africa's potential and current contributions from its ocean economy\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7121646/v1/3580961d9c0d077db561d973.png"},{"id":88196986,"identity":"acd74e5c-28c3-431b-a026-740963051cf8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-03 17:23:30","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":539156,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure: The map of leading coastal economies in Africa. Source: Google site www.oceaneconomies.com\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7121646/v1/44ea8df53b2fd5ad02e4acba.png"},{"id":88196322,"identity":"110754b7-75c0-421e-969a-26ca2ae69815","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-03 17:07:30","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":34590,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFigure 3:\u003c/strong\u003e Perception of climate change on ocean economy in Africa. \u003cstrong\u003eSource:\u003c/strong\u003e Online survey\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7121646/v1/2cd575d40dbd6b1f8d95ed9f.png"},{"id":88196740,"identity":"715dd100-d47c-4f3f-9bca-c4bae5c04fa7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-03 17:15:30","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":36618,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFigure 4:\u003c/strong\u003e The key variables of climate change impacting on ocean economies in Africa. \u003cstrong\u003eSource:\u003c/strong\u003e Online survey\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7121646/v1/c0086f22fdd8750458420258.png"},{"id":88196328,"identity":"32dd2e7f-63c8-4719-b48c-348f4e8b49ac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-03 17:07:30","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":260181,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFigure 5:\u003c/strong\u003e Trend of Climate Change Impact by Sector in Africa in percentages (2015–2024).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7121646/v1/fc4751e72599a83fd46d98bf.png"},{"id":88196326,"identity":"eefb0c92-d1d3-43cf-acc5-e1900f2b140b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-03 17:07:30","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":163922,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFigure 6:\u003c/strong\u003e This graph illustrates the increasing trends of major climate-related impacts on Africa’s coastal regions from 2014 to 2023, including floods and storms, sea level rise, marine heatwaves, and extreme cyclones.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7121646/v1/96bd9d703cfce74d9e16d159.png"},{"id":93283489,"identity":"0222d10f-607f-4c09-9499-6094dd1c17d1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-11 06:16:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3131915,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7121646/v1/45677502-eef6-4b93-976e-0a1af46dcd97.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Evaluating the Threats of Climate Change on Ocean Economies and Livelihoods in Africa","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eOcean economies in the forms of ocean tourism, fisheries, aquaculture, shipping, marine biotechnology, offshore energy and seabed mining contribute significantly to global economic growth and livelihoods (Marwan, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Globally, ocean economies generate an estimated US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e2.5 trillion annually in global gross value added (GVA) and support the livelihoods of over 3\u0026nbsp;billion people, particularly in coastal and island communities (Lubchenco et al., 2023). The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 2025 report stated that in 2023, the trade in ocean goods and services hit record highs of \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e899\u0026nbsp;billion and \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1.3 trillion respectively, highlighting the growing importance of marine activities for coastal and island nations. Hara et al. (2022) stated that the fisheries sector alone is sustaining over 600\u0026nbsp;million people living mostly in developing countries. Similarly, Ahmad et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e) express that the fisheries and aquaculture provide direct employment to over 60\u0026nbsp;million people globally and are responsible for the primary protein source of nearly 1\u0026nbsp;billion people, particularly in developing regions. Additionally, Matekenya et al. (2022) stated that the shipping industry, which handles over 80% of global trade by volume, is the backbone of the globalised economy, while offshore oil and gas account for roughly 30% of global hydrocarbon production. Correspondingly, the emerging sectors including marine biotechnology and offshore wind energy are poised to reshape the blue economy through innovation and decarbonisation (Fernandez-Palacious et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHowever, the accelerating impacts of climate change are threatening these ocean-based industries (Talukder et al., 2023). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2022 report disclosed that ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and rising sea levels are disrupting marine ecosystems, damaging coastal infrastructure, shifting fish stocks, and intensifying extreme weather events since 1900. Lindsey (2022) stated that the global mean sea level has risen by over 20 cm since 1900, and is projected to rise by another 30\u0026ndash;60 cm by 2100 under moderate emissions scenarios. Sea Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHowever, several researchers and scholars including Bailey et al. (2023), Jouffray et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) and Guyot-T\u0026eacute;phany et al. (2024) are of the views that globally the ocean remains largely unexplored, with up to two-thirds of marine species still unidentified, thereby offering vast potentials. The marine biotechnology market, estimated at \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e4.2\u0026nbsp;billion in 2023, is set to reach \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e6.4\u0026nbsp;billion by 2025, driven by low-carbon marine foods, new antibiotics, and bio-based materials (UNCTAD, 2025).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAfrica is not immune to the opportunities and under development of ocean economies (Struwig et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The ocean economy holds immense promise yet faces disproportionate risk due to limited adaptive capacity (Bennett, 2025). See Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe continent\u0026rsquo;s ocean economy is estimated to be worth over 405\u0026nbsp;billion dollars and can provide employment to over 50\u0026nbsp;million of its population, however the continent is currently utilising less than USD 296\u0026nbsp;billion worth suggesting almost 73% worth of its oceans resources are underutilised (Matekenya et al., 2024). Key sectors such as artisanal fisheries, maritime trade, port infrastructure, and coastal tourism are deeply exposed to climate-induced stressors (Meakins et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Matekenya et al. (2024) cited South Africa\u0026rsquo;s blue economy as vital to the national development, with coastal provinces like the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal heavily reliant on marine tourism, shipping, and fisheries. Similarly, Awazi et al. (2025) stated that Morocco\u0026rsquo;s fisheries sector alone contributes over 3% of the country\u0026rsquo;s gross domestic product (GDP) and provides employment to approximately 400,000 people. Ghana\u0026rsquo;s ocean economy including fishing, shipping, and offshore energy accounts for 6% of the country\u0026rsquo;s GDP and supports the livelihoods of over 2\u0026nbsp;million people, especially in coastal communities (Ayilu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). While in Senegal ocean-based tourism industry accounts for 7% of its GDP and employs over 150,000 people, with plans to increase this share to 10% (Schumann et al., 2020). These statistics highlight the immense economic and social value of Africa\u0026rsquo;s coastal and marine resources, emphasizing the need for sustainable management amid growing climate change challenges. Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e display the leading country of ocean economies in Africa\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe contributions of ocean economies in leading African countries\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/caption\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eCountry\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eOcean Economy Contribution to GDP\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEmployment in Ocean Economy\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSouth Africa\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e56\u0026nbsp;billion to GDP (4,4%) GDP (2023)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs generated 1 million\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eMorocco\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e144.42\u0026nbsp;billion USD (3%) of GDP 2023\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs generated 3 million\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eGhana\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e76.37\u0026nbsp;billion USD (6%) of GDP (2022)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs generated 2\u0026nbsp;million\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSenegal\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e31.01\u0026nbsp;billion USD (7%) of GDP (2023)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs generated 750,000\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eNigeria\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e362.81\u0026nbsp;billion USD (2,5%) GDP(2022)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs generated 2 million\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEgypt\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e31.01\u0026nbsp;billion USD (1,1%) GDP (2021)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs created2.67\u0026nbsp;million\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTanzania\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e7.2\u0026nbsp;billion USD (6,5%) GDP (2020)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs created 517,950\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eKenya\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e 56\u0026nbsp;billion USD (5.8%) GDP (2024)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs generated 300,000\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eMadagascar\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e 750\u0026nbsp;million annually (4,5%) (2023)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs created 500,000\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSomalia\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e$$135\u0026nbsp;million annually (2,5%) (2023)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEstimated jobs generated 400, 000\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSource: African Development Bank, 2020\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDespite these successes, ocean economies of many countries on the continent are significantly underutilised and operating far below their potential due to a combination of challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, unsustainable practices, lack of investment, ineffective policy frameworks, and the negative impacts of climate change (Zulu et al., 2023, Akpomera, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Karani et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) argued that in spite of possessing vast marine resources and untapped opportunities in sectors like fisheries, maritime transport, tourism, and offshore oil and gas, many African nations, including Senegal, Kenya, Ghana, Tanzania and Mozambique, face barriers such as overfishing, lack of modern technology and weak governance, limiting their ability to fully capitalize on the ocean economy.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eApart from the infrastructure, capacity limitations and governance weaknesses, climate change stands out as the greatest threat to Africa\u0026rsquo;s ocean economies (Chamma, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). This is due to significant and far-reaching and compounding implications. Das et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) argued that rising sea levels have contributed to coastal erosion, floods and saltwater intrusion, threatening critical infrastructure, tourism, and livelihoods of most coastal communities on the continent. Similarly, Venegas et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e) stated that ocean warming is disrupting marine biodiversity and fish stocks, threatening the sustainability of small-scale fisheries that millions depend on. Additionally, Zhang et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) highlighted that extreme weather events such as cyclones and storms are becoming more frequent and intense, damaging ports, vessels, and aquaculture systems. Equally, Hall-Spencer et al. (2019) indicated that ocean acidification and the degradation of vital important carbon ecosystems like mangroves and seagrasses are weakening marine food chains and natural coastal defences. These changes are especially damaging to vulnerable coastal communities with limited adaptive capacity, deepening poverty, food insecurity, and migration pressures (Daraz et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Moreover, climate change has impacted maritime transport and port infrastructure, disrupted trade and increased economic volatility (Dzebo, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Collectively, these threats have undermined the current and long-term viability of Africa\u0026rsquo;s ocean-based development and pose significant risks to sustainable ocean economy initiatives across the continent (Adali et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The World Aquaculture Society (WAS) 2023 report disclosed that fisheries and aquaculture are declining due to reduced fish stocks and habitat degradation, leading to projected losses exceeding \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e7\u0026nbsp;billion annually by 2050 on the continent. Furthermore, Lincoln et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) stated that the coastal tourism is at risk, as coral bleaching and shoreline erosion threaten major destinations, with expected losses reaching \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e6\u0026nbsp;billion. The shipping and port infrastructure face increasing disruption from storm surges and sea level rise, while offshore energy operations both fossil and renewable\u0026mdash;are becoming more volatile (Bolan et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Additionally, Wang et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) argues that coastal infrastructure damage, driven by flooding and erosion, is emerging as the most financially devastating impact, with losses projected to surpass \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e9\u0026nbsp;billion annually by 2050 on the continent. Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e summarises the past and projected implications of climate change to ocean economies in Africa.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe past and the future projections of climate change on ocean economies in Africa\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/caption\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"6\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eFisheries (bn \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTourism (bn \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eShipping (bn \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEnergy (bn \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eInfrastructure Damage (bn \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2010\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-1.2\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-0.5\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-0.3\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-0.4\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-0.8\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2020\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-2.1\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-1.0\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-0.8\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-0.9\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-1.5\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-3.4\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-2.2\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-1.4\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-1.6\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-3.2\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2040\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-5.0\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-3.8\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-2.1\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-2.5\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-5.7\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2050\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-7.3\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-6.0\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-3.0\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-3.7\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e-8.9\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003ctfoot\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"6\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eSource\u003c/b\u003e: United Nation Economic Commission for Africa, 2019\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tfoot\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn light of these threats to livelihoods and economic consequences several researchers and scholars including Matekenya et al. (2024), Raubenheimer et al. (2023), and Doucour\u0026eacute; et al. (2024) explored the extensivity on the sea-level rise, ocean warming, and extreme weather events and the threat to coastal communities, small-scale fisheries, and marine biodiversity, particularly in the West and East Africa sub-regions. Notwithstanding, very limited studies exist on the interdisciplinary research to assess policy coherence between national climate strategies and sustainable ocean economy development on the continent. Considering these gaps, this study evaluated the implications of climate change on ocean economies in Africa. Specifically, the study pursued these three research questions: (i) are there direct threats of climate change on ocean business in Africa? (ii) which economical activities are directly threatened by climate change? What adaptation strategies could be instituted to minimise the effects of climate change on ocean economies on the continent?\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Materials and Methods","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.1. Study Area and the Justification\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhile this study focuses on the entire ocean economies in Africa, data collection was however deliberately limited to five coastal countries Madagascar, Somalia, South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. See Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThese countries were selected based on their geographic diversity, capturing different sub-regions on the continent, their varied ocean economy profiles, ranging from advanced maritime industries to small-scale fisheries, and the relative availability of reliable data. Furthermore, their active engagement in ocean economy initiatives and current policy frameworks provided a strong basis for assessment. Madagascar, was specifically chosen due to its spread-out of 5,500 km coastline, and the potential of the ocean economy to drive the national development agenda. Currently, the country is attracting significant foreign investment such as China\u0026rsquo;s \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e2.7\u0026nbsp;billion commitment to fisheries, shipbuilding, and aquaculture. Furthermore, sustainable ventures like sea cucumber farming, supported by Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) like Blue Ventures, are significant potentials that can improve livelihoods and reduce poverty by 15% while conserving marine biodiversity in the country. Somalia, is included into this study due to its vast potential in ocean economy. The country boasts of 3,000 km of coastline and rich marine biodiversity, and significantly untapped potentials in the sector. The monsoon-fed waters support abundant fisheries, and improved maritime security has the ability to grow the sector if well managed. With a strong sustainability profile and vast stocks of underexploited pelagic fish like Indian oil sardines, Somalia is well-positioned to expand its ocean economy while avoiding past pitfalls of overfishing.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOcean economy in Kenya contributes only 2.5% of its GDP from this source despite its 200,000-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone and access to the tuna-rich Western Indian Ocean. Kenya\u0026rsquo;s domestic industry, if well managed, can triple the current contribution to the GDP and create million jobs in the next five years. South Africa was picked as a case study due to its advanced ocean economy infrastructure under the ambitious Operation Phakisa strategy, targeting marine transport, aquaculture, offshore oil and gas, and marine protection. With 4,000 km of coastline and access to global trade routes, the country projects an addition of R177\u0026nbsp;billion (\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e9.6\u0026nbsp;billion) to its GDP and over 1\u0026nbsp;million jobs by 2033. However, challenges remain, such as the underutilization of its shipping industry, which it aims to remedy through local ship registry expansion and seafarer training. Nigeria, Africa\u0026rsquo;s most populous country, sees significant blue economy opportunities in shipbuilding, aquaculture, and offshore development. Years of underinvestment have led to capital flight in ship repairs and cargo transport, but the government is now prioritizing infrastructure upgrades and establishing a national carrier to retain oil export revenue. Marine salvage, too, is gaining momentum as a dual solution for revenue generation and environmental clean-up.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.2. Research Design\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis research utilised critical multidisciplinary design to extensively examine the opportunities and the threats posed by climate change on Africa\u0026rsquo;s ocean economies. The amalgamation of qualitative and quantitative methods in the form of interviews, questionnaires, spatial analysis, econometric modelling and geospatial analysis, and content materials in the form of policies and legislative frameworks, book chapters, journals and conference presentations were used to explore how climate change is reshaping marine ecosystems, disruption of conventional livelihoods of coastal communities as well as destruction of infrastructure sustaining ocean economies. Specifically, the qualitative method was to captures rich, context-specifics of ocean businesses, insights into perceptions of climate change of ocean activities, the vulnerabilities of coastal communities to climate change, and localised adaptation to climate change. The quantitative dimension was used to provide empirical evidence on measurable trends such as sea level rise, shifts in fish stocks and economic losses in ocean economies due to climate change. The secondary materials were used to obtained data involving historical climate records, national policies and the limitations to achieve full potentials of ocean economies in Africa\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.3. Sampling Techniques, Population Size and Data Collection Strategies\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eA purposive sampling technique was employed to select a total of ten key respondents, comprising two individuals each from South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Madagascar, and Somalia. Purposive sampling, also known as judgemental sampling according to Campbell et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), is a technique used in qualitative research to select a specific group of individuals or units for analysis. This technique assisted the researcher to include respondents with direct knowledge and experience related to the impacts of climate change on ocean economies in Africa. Respondents were drawn from two strategically important institutions in each country: the national Department or Ministry of Environment, a leading marine or ocean research institute, such as the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa and the Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR) in Nigeria. In Kenya, participants were drawn from the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI) and the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry. In Somalia, respondents came from the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change and the Somali Maritime University. Whereas in Madagascar, participants were selected from the Institut Halieutique et des Sciences Marines (IH.SM) at the University of Toliara and the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development. All the interviews were conducted remotely, using telephone calls and email correspondence from June to December 2024. The remote approach was adopted to accommodate geographic dispersion of respondents and to minimise costs.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn addition, a random sampling approach was employed to select respondents from the same five countries. The random method was adopted to ensure broad representation in assessing the impacts of climate change on ocean economies. A total of 800 out of 1500 questionnaires were received from various online platforms including emails, social media sharing involving Facebook, Twitter (X), LinkedIn, or WhatsApp groups, Google Forms, SurveyMonkey, Qualtrics, Microsoft Forms as well as Institutional Websites across the five countries. In order to accommodate respondents from diverse linguistic backgrounds, a Google Translator, one of the most commonly used online translation devices, was attached to the questionnaires to assist non-English speakers in interpreting the questions in English. Ethical approval for the study was obtained prior to data collection, and all procedures adhered to ethical research standards. The quantitative data distribution and collection also occurred from June to December 2024.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.4. Data Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe data analysis process employed a mixed-methods approach. The qualitative data obtained through the interviews, were analysed using a thematic technique. Thematic analysis according to Naeem et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e) is the study of patterns to uncover meaning. In other words, it\u0026rsquo;s about analysing the patterns and themes within your data set to identify the underlying meaning. This approach was used to identify, analyse, and report key patterns and themes related to the impacts of climate change on ocean economies. The quantitative data collected via questionnaires, were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software of 2023. This technique propelled data to be grouped into frequency tables and draw graphs for easy reading and interpretation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Empirical Evidence","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe analysis of this paper was structured based on the three hypothetical questions set up in the questionnaire, which include: The threats of climate change on ocean economic activities, the main businesses directly impacted by climate change and the innovative adaptation mechanisms to minimise the implications.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.1. Demographic Background of Respondent\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe demographic information was deemed necessary in this research as it provides diverse perspectives and equitable representation in the coastal economic activities on the continent, given the continent\u0026rsquo;s socio-economic and cultural diversity. Table\u0026nbsp;3 reflects the background of the respondents\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"No\" id=\"Taba\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"5\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eDemographic\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eVariables\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eGroupings\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eNumber of\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eRespondents\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePercentage of\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eRespondents\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTotal No. Respondents\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eGender\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eMale\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e380\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e47%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eFemale\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e420\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e53%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"4\" rowspan=\"5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eAges\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e18\u0026ndash;24\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e108\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e14%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e25\u0026ndash;34\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e205\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e26%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e35\u0026ndash;44\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e155\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e19%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e45\u0026ndash;54\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e222\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e28%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e55+\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e110\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e14%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"3\" rowspan=\"4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eMarital Status\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSingle\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e105\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e13%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eMarried\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e550\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e69%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eDivorced\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e90\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e11%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eUndisclosed\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e55\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e7%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"4\" rowspan=\"5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEducational Background\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eNo Basic Edu.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e85\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e11%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eBasic Edu.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e118\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e15%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSecondary Edu.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e180\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e23%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eBachelor Degree\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e289\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e36%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePostgraduate\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e128\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e16%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"2\" rowspan=\"3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eGeographical Location\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eRural Coastal Community\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e315\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e39%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eUrban Coastal Community\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e429\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e53%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eUndisclosed\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e56\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e7%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"4\" rowspan=\"5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEmployment Status\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePublic Sector\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e225\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e28%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePrivate Sector\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e400\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e50%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eNGOs\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e55\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e9%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eLocal Service provider\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e88\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e11%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eUndisclosed\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e32\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e4%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"4\" rowspan=\"5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSector of Employment\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eAquaculture Activities\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e185\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e23%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eAgriculture\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e122\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e15%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTourism and Hospitality Sector\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e380\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e47%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePort Related Activities\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e96\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e12%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eUndisclosed\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e17\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\" morerows=\"2\" rowspan=\"3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eIncome Bracket\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eLower Income (\u0026lt;\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e300)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e250\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e31%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eMiddle Income (\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e300-\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1000)\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eUpper Middle (\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1000-\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e3000)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e330\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e108\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e41%\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e14%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eUndisclosed\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e132\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e17%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e800\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSource\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cp\u003eOnline Survey\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe results from Table\u0026nbsp;3 reveal a diverse group of the 800 respondents, with a nearly balanced gender distribution. Out of the total responses received, 420 (equating to 53%) were females, against 380 or 47% males. The majority of the respondents, that is 105 of 28%, were in the age group of 45\u0026thinsp;\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;44 years. A larger portion of the respondents are well-educated, with 50% of them holding at least a bachelor's degree or higher. Geographically, the respondents are slightly more urban-based coastal communities (53%) than rural (39%). The income levels are broadly distributed, with most individuals falling within the low to upper-middle income brackets, while 14% earn high incomes. The majority of the respondents are married (69%), and employment is primarily concentrated in the private sector (50%), followed by the public sector (28%) and local service (11%). The respondents are actively involved in tourism and the hospitality industry, (47%) followed by fishing (23%).\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.2. The Correlation between Climate Change and Ocean Economic Activities\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis paper measured the relationship between climate change and the ocean economies in Africa. Respondents were asked to indicate whether climate change has a bearing on their economic activities and livelihoods. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e reflects the perspectives of respondents.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe results obtained suggest that a significant majority (88%) believed that climate change has either direct or indirect impacts on the ocean economies in Africa. This is in sharp contrast to only 10% who hold the view that climate change has no implications on ocean businesses on the continent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.2.1. Key Climate Change Phenomena Affecting Ocean-Based Economies in Africa\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eBased on the responses listed in section 3.2 of this paper, respondents were asked to indicate which of the climate change variables have the most significant impacts on the ocean economies. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e depicts the perspectives of respondents.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe results revealed that the majority of the respondents\u0026rsquo; regard floods and storms as the most significant and eminent threat to ocean economies to coastal communities across the continent. Out of 800 responses received, 620 translating to 78%, mentioned these variables. This is immediately followed by coastal erosion, sea level rise and ocean acidification, mentioned in 440, 420 and 400 responses respectively. These statistical evidences were validated by interviews conducted. A climate change researcher in CSIR based in Pretoria South Africa stated this in an interview:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u0026ldquo;Sea level rise is no longer a future scenario for South Africa\u0026rsquo;s eastern coastline it\u0026rsquo;s already eroding infrastructure in areas like Durban and Port St. Johns\u0026rdquo;. He reiterated that \u0026ldquo;with every passing storm surge, we lose roads, beachfronts, and sometimes homes\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnother climate change researcher from the University of Antananarivo in Madagascar stated that:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u0026ldquo;We\u0026rsquo;re witnessing more intense cyclones and erratic weather patterns along the eastern coast. These storms not only destroy fishing boats and coral reefs but have displaced entire communities in the regions of Mananjary and Toamasina over the last few years. Ocean warming has significantly reduced fish stocks, undermining the livelihoods of thousands of coastal fishers\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA prominent climate scientist in marine ecology, working with a regional climate resilience initiative in Somalia, shared these sentiments when engaged for her views:\u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eStorm surges and sea level rise are increasingly reshaping Africa\u0026rsquo;s coastal economies. Without urgent adaptation measures, coastal urban centres in countries like South Africa, Madagascar, Somalia and Ghana will face compounding economic, social, and environmental losses\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA common consensus from the engagements suggest that that sea level rise, ocean warming, ocean acidification and increasingly severe floods and storms are the most pressing threats to coastal communities in Africa particularly in Southern Africa, the west coastline particularly in Ghana and Nigeria, the Indian ocean in Madagascar, and East Africa in Mombasa in Somalia and Dar es Salaam, which are already facing widespread damage to infrastructure, fisheries, and livelihoods due to climate change.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.3. The Correlation between Climate Change and Ocean Economies in Africa\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis study explored extensively the connection between climate variabilities and ocean economies in Africa. Respondents were asked to mention the key economic activities directly impacted by climate change. Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e reflects the answers of respondents\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab3\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 4\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe correlation between climate change and key sectors in the ocean economies\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/caption\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSector of the Economy\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eNo. of Respondents\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePercentage (%)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eCorrelations to of the Sector to Climate Change\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAgriculture and food security\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e540 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e68%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDrought, erratic rainfall and reduced crop yield\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eFisheries and marine resources\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e620 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e78%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eOcean warming, acidification and declining fish stock\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eWater resources\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e700 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e88%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDecreased freshwater availability, drying rivers and saltwater intrusion\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCoastal Infrastructure\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e455 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e57%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eFlooding, erosion, sea-level rise affecting coastal towns and cities\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eHealth\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e355 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e44%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSpread of diseases like malaria, malnutrition and heat-related illness\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eTourism\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e530 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e66%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCoral bleaching, biodiversity loss and climate-disrupted travel pattern\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eForestry and biodiversity\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e420 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e53%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eLoss of ecosystem, habitat destruction, wildfires\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eEnergy (Hydro, thermal etc.)\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e300 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e38%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eHydropower reliability affecting rainfall variability and high temperatures\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eTransport and logistics\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e600 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e75%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eFlooded roads, disrupted ports, rising maintenance costs\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eEducation\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e280 (800)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e35%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eClimate disasters forcing school closure, reduced access in rural/climate-affected areas\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003ctfoot\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eSource\u003c/b\u003e: Online survey\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tfoot\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe responses obtained demonstrate that climate change has significant impacts on various ocean economic sectors. Of the ten sectors appraised seven of them were mentioned and identified above 50% as severely impacted by climate change. For instance, 700 out of 800, translating to 88%, indicate that climate change has significant impact on water resources, 78% mentioned the fishing industry, 75%, 68%, and 66% identified respectively transport and logistics, food security and tourism as sectors impacted by climate change. Considering these statistics analysis, the study evaluated how climate change has impacted these key sectors over the past ten years. Table\u0026nbsp;5 depicts the outcomes.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe outcome revealed the trend of climate change impacts on ocean economies in Africa over the past decade (2015\u0026ndash;2024). The graph demonstrates that climate change has caused a significant and accelerating decline across key economic sectors on the continent, with agriculture experiencing the steepest drop in yields from 2.1\u0026ndash;5.6%. This is due to increasing droughts, erratic rainfall, and soil degradation. Fisheries followed closely, declining from 1.5\u0026ndash;5.0%, as warming seas and ocean acidification disrupted marine ecosystems and fish stocks critical to coastal livelihoods. Water resources, coastal infrastructure, and health have also suffered pronounced impacts, with freshwater availability shrinking and extreme weather damaging essential infrastructure while worsening public health outcomes. Tourism, forestry, energy, transport, and education showed more moderate but steady declines, reflecting indirect yet growing consequences such as ecosystem damage, infrastructure stress, and increased school absenteeism due to climate-related displacement. These statistical analyses were augmented by online interviews with important players in the sector. An employee with Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR) expressed this in an interview:\u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eOver the years the rising sea levels and intense coastal erosion are disrupting port operations, especially in Lagos. For instance, Apapa Port has experienced frequent flooding, which has caused shipping delays and infrastructure damages\u0026rdquo;. The interviewee cited a 2022 World Bank report that identified that coastal erosion in West Africa is costing the region over \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e3.8\u0026nbsp;billion annually, with Nigeria accounting for about \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1.3\u0026nbsp;billion of that. \u0026ldquo;This stand as significant threats to maritime trade, which makes up more than 90% of Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s import and export routes\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA climate change researcher at the Somali Maritime University stated this in an interview:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u0026ldquo;Climate change is significantly impacting fisheries along the East African coast. We\u0026rsquo;re seeing warming ocean temperatures and acidification impacting fish stocks. For example, Kenya\u0026rsquo;s annual marine fish production has declined from 9,000 tonnes in 2010 to around 6,000 tonnes in recent years. That\u0026rsquo;s a drop of over 30%, which directly affects the livelihoods of over 13,000 artisanal fishers in the country\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSimilarly, another climate change expert based in Cape Town, South Africa expressed these sentiments in an interview:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOur abalone farming used to be predictable, but now we have extreme temperature fluctuations and increased storm surges affecting water quality and farm structures. The Western Cape aquaculture sector has seen losses of over R100\u0026nbsp;million (approximately \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e5.3\u0026nbsp;million) over the past five years due to climate-related events. These unpredictable changes are making small-scale aquaculture increasingly unviable for many farmers like myself.\"\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA common view that emanated from other interviewees suggest that ocean acidification and changing current patterns are impacting plankton and the entire ocean economies threatening the sustainability and livelihoods of coastal communities in Africa.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.4. Adaptation Strategies to Minimise Climate Change Impacts on Ocean Economies in Africa\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis paper explored the adaptive strategies required to minimise the impacts of climate change on ocean economies in Africa. Respondents were asked to identify alternative and coping mechanisms to reduce the impacts of climate change on the ocean economies. Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e reflects the answers of respondents.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"No\" id=\"Tabb\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eStrategies\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eDescription of the strategy\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eNo. of Respondents\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePercentage(%)\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eBlue Carbon Ecosystem Protection\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eRestoration and conservation of mangroves, seagrasses, etc.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e656\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e82%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eMarine Spatial Planning (MSP)\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eClimate-integrated planning for marine space use\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e560\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e70%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eClimate-Smart Fishing\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePromote sustainable fishing, aquaculture, and stock monitoring.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e704\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e88%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eClimate-Resilient Port Infrastructure\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eBuild or upgrade ports to withstand climate impacts\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e520\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e65%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eBlue Economy Financing (e.g., Blue Bonds)\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eClimate finance for ocean resilience and entrepreneurship.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e576\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e72%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eMarine Renewable Energy Deployment\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTidal, wave, and offshore wind energy investments\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e544\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e68%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCoastal Early Warning Systems\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eDigital alert systems for storms, floods, and sea surges\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e728\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e91%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCommunity-Led Ocean Governance\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eEmpower local communities in managing resources.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e696\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e64%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eEco-Friendly Blue Tourism\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePromote low-impact, sustainable coastal tourism.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e600\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e75%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eOcean Data and Innovation Hubs\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003ePromote local marine research and digital innovation\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e632\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e79%\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003ctfoot\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eSource\u003c/b\u003e: Online survey\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tfoot\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe survey of 800 respondents uncovered a robust support for innovative strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the continent\u0026rsquo;s ocean economies. Out of 800 responses received 728, translating to 91%, regarded early warning systems as the most innovative strategy to minimise climate change impact on ocean economies; this is immediately followed by climate-smart fisheries cited by 88%, while 87% mentioned community-led ocean governance as a way forward to the minimise the impacts. At the same time, strategies such as marine spatial planning, blue economy financing, and marine renewable energy, and ocean data and innovation hubs were mentioned by 70%, 72%, 68% and 79% respectively. These statistical breakdowns were bolstered by views from experts in the sector. Marine Policy Analyst at Institut Halieutique et des Sciences Marines (IH.SM) at the University of Toliara in Madagascar said this in an interview:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eWomen in our community have started seaweed farming cooperatives, not just as a livelihood, but as a form of carbon sequestration. These farms help reduce wave energy that causes erosion. If more support went into scaling such blue carbon practices, we could transform our coastlines from fragile to resilient\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAn Ocean Economist, based in Durban in KwaZulu-Natal expressed this in an interview:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u0026ldquo;We need to move beyond paper policies. For instance, co-developing ocean resilience strategies with local fishing communities such as integrating early warning systems with local indigenous knowledge\u0026rdquo;. The interviewee reiterated that \u0026ldquo;when communities understand and trust the science they will participate in. This innovation must bridge traditional knowledge with tech\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA Marine Conservation Biotechnologist, Kenya also shared this view in an interview:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u0026ldquo;Our ports and fisheries are already being impacted by sea-level rise. We are working with AI-driven satellite mapping to predict habitat shifts and guide artisanal fishermen to new fishing grounds. This kind of adaptive planning rooted in local data should be central to Africa\u0026rsquo;s ocean economic strategy\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOther insightful sentiments shared by interviewees include rethinking of marine spatial planning and participatory Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping to zone marine areas for ecotourism, fishing, and conservation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Discussions","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe discussions of this study is structured according to the objectives set up at the beginning of the paper which include the key climate variables impacting the ocean economies in Africa, the correlation between climate change and ocean economies and the alternative strategies required to minimise the implications of climate change on ocean economies on the continent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.1. The Key Climate Change Phenomena Impacting the Ocean Economies in Africa\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe key findings of Figs.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e and \u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e, and views from climate scientists who were engaged established that over the past five decades, coastal communities across Africa have experienced a marked escalation in climate change induced phenomena, with serious implications for livelihoods, ecosystems, and national economies. One of the remarkable findings of Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e revealed that the frequency of floods and storms has surged, in most of coastal communities on the continent, experiencing tenfold increase since the 1970s. It was uncovered that rising ocean levels are threatening dozens of the continent\u0026rsquo;s rapidly expanding coastal metropolises, resulting in shrinking land areas with coastal flooding becoming more powerful than storm surges. Simultaneously, sea level rise is accelerating, averaging over 3.5 mm annually and contributing to widespread coastal erosion that now affects more than half of West Africa\u0026rsquo;s coastlines. Additional findings of Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e revealed that marine heatwaves, once rare, now occur multiple times each year, while the incidence of intense cyclones such as Freddy and Idai have dramatically risen, becoming frequent and more deadly and displacing more of the coastal population, running into millions of people. The accompanying graphs illustrate the upward trends: a steady rise in flood events, the consistent annual increase in sea level rise, more frequent marine heatwaves, and a notable uptick in extreme cyclone events\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFigure \u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e further revealed that climate change phenomena are also manifested in the warming of oceans, acidification, salt intrusion and other extreme weather events. The underlying findings of Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e, views from climate scientists engaged as well as numerous literature revealed that the continent\u0026rsquo;s coastal regions are increasingly exposed to interlinked oceanic threats including ocean acidification, warming seas, and saltwater intrusion driven largely by rising greenhouse gas emissions and regional environmental pressures. It was established that ocean acidification is driven by the ocean\u0026rsquo;s absorption of excessive atmospheric CO₂, thus reducing seawater pH and impairing marine life, including calcification of shellfish, such as oyster and coral. For instance, in Ghana the Volta Estuary, oyster farmers report over 40% decline in spat survival, with estuarine pH levels dropping to critical thresholds. These findings are augmented by Roxy et al. (2020) namely that ocean warming is as a resulted of oceans absorbing over 90% of global heat hence raising sea surface temperatures up to 1.2\u0026deg;C in regions such as the Western Indian and Atlantic Oceans. It was mentioned that these phenomena have contributed significantly to mass coral bleaching in Kenya\u0026rsquo;s Mombasa Marine Park and over a 25% decline in tuna catches in Seychelles since 2015, undermining food security and export earnings. Additionally, Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e uncovered that saltwater intrusion driven by sea-level rise, groundwater overuse, and river flow reduction is contaminating freshwater aquifers and degrading coastal farmland. In Egypt up to 15% of arable land is now saline affected, while in Senegal\u0026rsquo;s Saloum Delta, saltwater has advanced more than 50 km inland, collapsing traditional rice farming systems. These stressors are not only disrupting biodiversity but also threatening the economic and physical survival of millions living in Africa\u0026rsquo;s coastal zones, where data limitations and inadequate monitoring continue to hinder timely, science-based adaptation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec15\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.2. The Correlation between Climate Change and Ocean Economies in Africa\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eAn overwhelming finding of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e revealed that climate change has a direct and measurable implication on ocean economies across the continent, with consequences becoming increasingly visible to livelihoods and economic growth in these communities and the GDPs of the countries. Numerous authors including Nhantumbo et al. (2023) and Griggs et al. (2021) revealed that more than 117\u0026nbsp;million people in Africa reside in low-elevation coastal zones, and their livelihoods and infrastructure are increasingly threatened by climate-induced pressures. The underlying findings of Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e uncovered that sea levels along African coasts are rising at approximately 3.6 millimetres annually faster than the global average resulting in significant erosion and infrastructure loss. Nhantumbo et al. (2023) stated that the continent\u0026rsquo;s coastlines have experienced a steady rise in sea levels and at the current pace, sea levels are projected to rise by 0.3 meters by 2030, affecting 117\u0026nbsp;million Africans. If global warming is contained to 2˚C above the 1990 levels, sea level rise may be limited to 0.4 meters. However, a 4˚C level of global warming would lead to a 1-meter rise in sea levels by the end of the century.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe findings of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e and Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e suggest that the impact of ocean warming and other climate change phenomena on the continent is significant and devastating. The underlying findings of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e and Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e, established that from West to East and South to the island nations on the continent, water resources, marine ecosystems, fisheries, transport, tourism, agriculture, and food security are all under siege. It was established that social and economic consequences of climate change are most acutely and more directly felt among coastal populations dependent on fishing and other marine resources such as salt production, and other small-scale livelihoods. Our engagements with key players in the sector exposed that across the continent, more than 12.3\u0026nbsp;million people depend directly on fisheries for food and income. For instance, in Kenya, warming sea temperatures have shifted fish migration patterns, reducing nearshore fish stocks by an estimated 20% in the last 10 years. These developments have dramatically affected artisanal fishing communities, particularly in Kilifi and Lamu in Kenya, where 65% of local protein intake comes from marine sources. The decline is worsening nutritional insecurity and increasing youth unemployment in these coastal towns. Similarly, in Ghana Climate change is driving a severe crisis in the fishing industry, threatening the livelihoods of over 2.7\u0026nbsp;million people. The sea surface temperatures have risen between 1\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003eC to 1.5\u0026deg;C since the 1960s, disrupting fish migration and reducing plankton, which has caused small pelagic fish landings to drop by over 80% from 120,000 tonnes in the 1990s to just 20,000 tonnes by 2020. The artisanal fishing, which supply over 80% of the country\u0026rsquo;s fish, are unable to access deeper waters, leading to income losses of up to 40%. Furthermore, coastal erosion up to 2 meters per year in areas like Keta and Ada has destroyed landing sites and displaced fishing communities. Ironically, Ghana now imports over 60% of its fish consumption (around 600,000 tonnes annually), undermining food security and economic resilience.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFurthermore, important findings of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e established that climate change has severe strain on Africa\u0026rsquo;s water resources, affecting the health, food systems, energy, and ecosystems. The underlying findings of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e and views from important players in this sector revealed that currently, over 300\u0026nbsp;million people on the continent are facing water scarcity, and this number could rise to 700\u0026nbsp;million by 2030. These will be due to increasing droughts, erratic rainfall, and rising temperatures. A noteworthy finding of the survey uncovered that in East Africa, repeated droughts have dried rivers and dams, while Lake Chad has shrunk by 90% since the 1960s, affecting over 30\u0026nbsp;million people. Similarly, Southern Africa has seen severe urban water shortages, with Cape Town\u0026rsquo;s 2018 \u0026ldquo;Day Zero\u0026rdquo; crisis as a stark warning. Glacial melting in the Rwenzori Mountains and Mount Kilimanjaro is disrupting major rivers, while floods in West Africa region such as Nigeria in 2022 have contaminated drinking water and displaced over a million people.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOther findings of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e established that coastal tourism is a pillar of many African ocean economies. It was established that tourism accounts for more than \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e25\u0026nbsp;billion in GDP contributions across coastal African countries and supports over 6.5\u0026nbsp;million jobs. However, the underlying findings of Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e, revealed that rising sea temperatures and coral bleaching are degrading marine attractions in most countries on the continent particularly Kenya, Tanzania, and Seychelles. It was uncovered that in South Africa, extreme weather events and shoreline erosion have impacted tourism-dependent cities like Durban. For instance, the 2022 floods alone caused damages worth approximately \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1\u0026nbsp;billion. Similarly, in Seychelles, nearly 90% of the population and infrastructure are located in low-lying coastal areas; projected climate-related damages could cost the country between 7% and 8% of its annual GDP by 2050. Furthermore, the frequent flood-related delays at the Port of Lagos in Nigeria, cost the economy an estimated \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e2\u0026nbsp;billion annually. The Cyclone Idai in 2019 devastated Mozambique\u0026rsquo;s port facilities and transport corridors, resulting in economic damages exceeding \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1.4\u0026nbsp;billion and crippling regional supply chains.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnother significant finding of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e, uncovered that climate change also has direct implications on ecosystems, human well-being, and sustainable development particularly on coastal communities on the continent. The key findings in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e suggest that rising sea levels, saltwater intrusion, and stronger storm surges are degrading coastal forests especially mangroves in countries such as Mozambique, Ghana and Senegal, where up to 35% of mangrove cover has been lost. This loss of natural buffers is accelerating biodiversity decline by destroying habitats critical for marine life, birds, and endemic species. Moreover, human health is increasingly at risk, as warmer temperatures and flooding heighten the spread of waterborne and vector-borne diseases like cholera and malaria. For instance, coastal communities in Sierra Leone and Ghana have seen increased outbreaks of diarrheal disease following climate-related floods. Energy infrastructure is also under threat, with sea-level rise and sedimentation disrupting coastal thermal and hydropower systems in places like Kenya and Tanzania, reducing electricity reliability and efficiency. Education is not spared from flooding and erosion regularly damage schools and roads in coastal communities, particularly in Nigeria and C\u0026ocirc;te d\u0026rsquo;Ivoire, where thousands of students face repeated class disruptions. Rising climate-related hardship also leads to increased dropout rates, especially among girls. For instance, the 2021 World Bank report stated that climate-related events, such as flooding and erosion, damage educational infrastructure in coastal areas, which will contribute to school closures and increased dropout rates, especially among girls.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec16\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.3. Adaptation Strategies to Minimise Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Economies in Africa\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eAn overwhelming finding of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e suggests that minimising the economic impacts of climate change on the ocean economies in Africa will require an integrated adaptation approach. This entails amalgamating technological innovation, community-based governance, environmental stewardship, and a localised adaptation approach. See Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e. The underlying message of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e revealed that prioritising early warning systems (EWS) is the key and most important mechanism to reduce severe impacts of climate on livelihoods and mitigate economic damage. The majority of the respondents and interviewees alluded that an effective early EWS propel timely evacuations, protect marine livelihoods and infrastructure, support climate-resilient planning, stabilise coastal economic activities, and preparedness through localised, culturally relevant communication. These findings are also shared by Islam et al. (2025) namely that EWS are essential tools for alleviating the effects of natural hazards, particularly floods, cyclones, and droughts, by giving early warnings and actionable information. Olaoye et al. (2024) identified Japan as a success case where EWS have assisted in minimising the impacts of natural disasters, such as tsunamis, earthquakes, and severe storms on coastal communities and a 21% reduction in total economic damages from natural disasters (as a share of GDP) compared to the 1950s and 1960s. Another important finding of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e, revealed that climate-smart and adaptive fishing practices are important strategies to minimise climate change impacts on the ocean economies on the continent. The underlying views of climate-smart fishing suggest that it promotes adaptive fishing practices, establish marine protected areas, adopt low-emission technologies, diversifying livelihoods, and utilising early warning systems. These fishing strategies enhance ecosystem resilience, protect marine resources, and sustain coastal livelihoods. Community-led ocean governance is another adaptation strategy revealed in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e. The underpinning views of this approach suggest that it promotes sustainable resource management, protect critical coastal ecosystems, integrate traditional knowledge, reduce conflicts and ensure equity. Furthermore, community-led ocean governance enhance compliance and monitoring, while supporting livelihood diversification, all of which strengthen local resilience, conserve marine biodiversity, and sustain economic activities in the face of climate-related challenges. These findings are also shared by McCabe et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) on the case of Madagascar\u0026rsquo;s Velondriake initiative, a locally managed marine area (LMMA), which have doubled octopus yields and boosted household incomes by over 30% through seasonal closures and locally enforced regulations. These models underscore the significance of empowering communities with legal recognition, capacity building, and institutional support to steward marine resources sustainably.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnother important finding of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e found that the protection and restoration of blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes, which serve both as carbon sinks and natural coastal defences are equally important to minimise climate change on ocean economies. These strategies minimise the impacts of climate change on ocean economies by enhancing carbon sequestration, protecting coastal infrastructure from erosion and storms, support fisheries and food security, increase resilience to sea-level rise, and creating sustainable livelihoods through nature-based solutions. Currently, some West African countries such as Guinea-Bissau and Senegal are piloting carbon-financed mangrove projects that will generate income through verified carbon credits while enhancing climate resilience. Ocean data and innovation hubs were mentioned by a significant number of respondents and interviewees as an adaptation strategy to reduce climate change impacts on the ocean economies in Africa. The underlying perspectives of this strategy revealed that it generates real-time, science-based information that supports early warning systems, sustainable marine resource management, adaptive policy-making, and the development of innovative blue economy solutions that strengthen resilience, reduce risk, and enhance livelihoods in coastal communities. Similar views were also shared by South African International Maritime Institute (SAIMI, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) that Africa must urgently invest in improved ocean data infrastructure and innovation systems. Currently, Institutions such as the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI) and the South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON) are scaling up regional capabilities in ocean monitoring, AI-driven forecasting, and marine research to boost ocean economies across the continent. However, it critical to strengthening partnerships between governments, academia, industry, and communities to foster a new generation of ocean scientists and entrepreneurs across the continent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOther important findings of Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e revealed that promoting marine spatial planning, building climate-resilient port infrastructure, securing blue economy financing, marine renewable energy deployment, and advocating for eco-friendly blue tourism collectively help achieve the objectives of minimising climate change impacts on ocean economies. These strategies will ensure sustainable use of marine resources, protection and sustainability of coastal infrastructure and livelihoods, mobilising sufficient investment for climate-resilient development, advancing low-carbon energy transitions, as well as promoting environmentally responsible tourism that supports ecosystem conservation and inclusive economic growth across the continent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5. Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn conclusion, this paper provides invaluable insights into ocean economy\u0026rsquo;s contributions to the continent\u0026rsquo;s economic growth and livelihood opportunities. It was established that, in spite of potentials of the sector, climate change is posing serious threats to the sustainability continent\u0026rsquo;s ocean economies. Rising sea levels, ocean acidification and increasing frequency of extreme weather events are contributing to degrading marine ecosystems, reducing fish harvest, and damaging coastal infrastructure. These implications are particularly severe for small-scale fishing industries, subsistent farming and tourism dependent communities, exacerbating poverty and inequalities on the continent. This study recommends a significant investment in climate-resilient infrastructure to protect coastal communities and sustaining marine resources. Furthermore, it is suggested that encouraging regional cooperation, knowledge sharing among countries will strengthen maritime security, harmonise policies, and share innovations and best practices that will boost resilience and economic growth across shared ocean ecosystems. Additionally, the study proposes bolstering adaptive capacity and integrating socio-economic and environmental sustainability to be central to long-term ocean governance. This will ensure a balance use of ocean resources, protect ecosystems, support livelihoods, as well as promoting inclusive growth for the current and future generations across the continent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eFurther Research\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhile this study explores extensively the impacts of climate change on ocean economies in Africa, further studies are, however, required in the areas such as technological advancement; particularly how emerging technologies such as marine-based renewable energy, climate-resilient infrastructure, digital ocean monitoring systems, and AI-powered early warning tools can be locally adapted, scaled, and sustainably financed to strengthen the resilience and productivity of Africa's blue economies.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConflict of Interest\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe author declares there is no conflict.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eRKA: Collected data and wrote the entire manuscript\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eData Availability Statement\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eData supporting the findings of this study are available upon request from the corresponding author. 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Challenges faced by SMMEs operating in the ocean economy in KwaZulu-Natal Province: A quantitative study. \u003cem\u003eThe Southern African Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management, 15\u003c/em\u003e(1), 3-10.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Livelihoods, Sustainable management, Adaptation mechanisms, Resilience, Africa’s economies, Coastal Livelihoods","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7121646/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7121646/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAfrica\u0026rsquo;s ocean or blue economies, which encompass fisheries, coastal tourism, marine transport and emerging ventures such as offshore renewable energy, maritime biotechnology, blue carbon and conservation projects, are the backbones of many countries on the continent. However, climate change and their impacts are threatening the sustainability of this sector. Using a mixed-methods approach of qualitative and quantitative approaches as well as extensive literature materials, this paper evaluated the extent and nature of threats pose by climate change to the key coastal economies on the continent and adaptation strategies required to minimise the impacts of climate change on ocean economies. Our findings revealed that the vulnerabilities of Africa\u0026rsquo;s ocean economies are compounded by weak adaptive capacity, insufficient climate financing, and governance gaps in marine resource management. This study recommends policy reforms and alternative management strategies with much more focus on strengthening climate resilient strategies and adaptive mechanisms that integrate blue economy strategies into national policy, regional cooperation and a targeted investment in climate-smart infrastructure and community-based adaptation strategies. Furthermore, this study proposes an integration of ocean-based economic activities into long-term national climate and biodiversity plans that accelerate adaptation and improve resilience.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Evaluating the Threats of Climate Change on Ocean Economies and Livelihoods in Africa","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-03 17:07:25","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7121646/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"ed471485-4609-4e9f-9cf6-0dd0970aa2e7","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 3rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-11T06:08:48+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-03 17:07:25","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7121646","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7121646","identity":"rs-7121646","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}