Walkability in Digital Era: A ‘Futures Study’ in Tehran

Abstract Information and Communications Technology (ICT) affects most of the cultural, social, economic, and physical dynamics of cities and makes the future of urban development difficult to predict. In the digital era, walkability needs to be preserved as a principle in urban design. Tajrish and Velenjak Neighborhoods in District One of Tehran Municipality (TVNDOTM) possess walkable neighborhood qualities and currently, ICT can change these qualities more than before. This paper seeks to find various scenarios that explain the impact of ICT on the walkability in TVNDOTM by studying the future status of major factors. Walkability indices in our case study were refined based on the views of 32 experts selected with the snowball technique. MicMac and ScenarioWizard were used to determine the key drivers and identify scenarios with consistent components, respectively. Results show that the future of walkability in TVNDOTM under the effects of ICT is not precisely predictable and both states of weakening or strengthening the walkability are probable. This research encourages urban planners and designers to make a conscious effort in facilitating the favorable scenario to take place in urban neighborhoods among all the possible ways in which ICT changes urban walkability.