Electric Vehicle Fleet Penetration and Air Pollution Mortality in Europe

The transition to electric vehicles is widely promoted as contributing to the reduction of urban air pollution and climate change. This study examines the correlation between electric vehicle fleet penetration and premature deaths from air pollution (PM2.5 exposure) across 28 European countries. Using 2023-2024 data on actual vehicle fleet composition (not sales), we find a statistically significant negative correlation (r = -0.465, p = 0.013). Nordic countries show high EV penetration (Norway 28%, Denmark 12.1%) with low mortality rates (6.6 and 18.3 deaths per 100,000 respectively), while Eastern European countries exhibit <1% EV penetration with 70-145 deaths per 100,000. This result was expected for several reasons, the main one being that car exhaust is a major factor in air pollution in urban areas, but not the only one. In addition, geographic and meteorological factors dominate pollution patterns, while many countries bundle vehicle electrification with comprehensive policies addressing all emission sources. These findings, however, prove that electric vehicles have a positive effect on air quality and reduce mortality. The replacement of internal combustion engine vehicles with electric ones must proceed as fast as possible in order to reduce pollution-related mortality, but it must be coupled with other pollution abatement measures.