Monte Carlo Simulation for Evaluating Spatial Dynamics and Ecotoxicological Hazards of Toxic Metals in Surface Water Impacted by Agricultural Runoff in the Sebou Basin, Morocco

Monte Carlo Simulation for Evaluating Spatial Dynamics and Ecotoxicological Hazards of Toxic Metals in Surface Water Impacted by Agricultural Runoff in the Sebou Basin, Morocco | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Monte Carlo Simulation for Evaluating Spatial Dynamics and Ecotoxicological Hazards of Toxic Metals in Surface Water Impacted by Agricultural Runoff in the Sebou Basin, Morocco Hatim Sanad, Rachid Moussadek, Latifa Mouhir, Majda Oueld Lhaj, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6740607/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Surface water is vital for environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity but is highly vulnerable to heavy metals (HMs) pollution from human activities. The focus of this research is to provide an analysis of ecological and human exposure to HMs in the Sebou Basin, an agriculturally significant region within Morocco's Gharb Plain. Using a multi-index integration approach, encompassing HM pollution indices, Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), multivariate statistical analysis (MSA), and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), twenty samples of surface water were taken and subjected to analysis. The results demonstrated notable spatial variability, with the northwestern, southwestern, and western parts of the Sebou Basin showing higher contamination levels. Cu exhibited the highest hazard quotient for ingestion, while Cr exceeded the hazard index (HI) threshold in both age categories. Statistical analysis uncovered strong associations, particularly between As and Cr, while principal component analysis (PCA) detected two key factors explaining 74.44% of the overall variability. Pollution indices classified all samples as highly contaminated (HPI > 30), with 65% categorized as "seriously affected" (MI > 6). The HHRA results indicated a heightened non-carcinogenic risk for children and carcinogenic risks exceeding acceptable thresholds (TCR > 10 − 4 ), with Ni presenting the highest risk (TCR = 2.32 × 10 − 3 for children). MCS results revealed that Cu and Cr pose potential risks, with Cu exceeding the safety threshold for ingestion in both adults and children. These results emphasize the urgent necessity for tailored strategies to reduce contamination and foster sustainable agricultural and environmental management practices. Environmental Engineering Marine and Freshwater Ecology Ecological Modeling Toxic metals Surface water Agricultural runoff Ecotoxicology Health risk assessment GIS Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6740607","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":461394596,"identity":"c33d0099-1d60-4a6b-826a-cda30fe71e07","order_by":0,"name":"Hatim 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for environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity but is highly vulnerable to heavy metals (HMs) pollution from human activities. The focus of this research is to provide an analysis of ecological and human exposure to HMs in the Sebou Basin, an agriculturally significant region within Morocco's Gharb Plain. Using a multi-index integration approach, encompassing HM pollution indices, Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), multivariate statistical analysis (MSA), and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), twenty samples of surface water were taken and subjected to analysis. The results demonstrated notable spatial variability, with the northwestern, southwestern, and western parts of the Sebou Basin showing higher contamination levels. Cu exhibited the highest hazard quotient for ingestion, while Cr exceeded the hazard index (HI) threshold in both age categories. Statistical analysis uncovered strong associations, particularly between As and Cr, while principal component analysis (PCA) detected two key factors explaining 74.44% of the overall variability. Pollution indices classified all samples as highly contaminated (HPI\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;30), with 65% categorized as \"seriously affected\" (MI\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;6). The HHRA results indicated a heightened non-carcinogenic risk for children and carcinogenic risks exceeding acceptable thresholds (TCR\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;10\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;4\u003c/sup\u003e), with Ni presenting the highest risk (TCR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2.32 \u0026times; 10\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;3\u003c/sup\u003e for children). MCS results revealed that Cu and Cr pose potential risks, with Cu exceeding the safety threshold for ingestion in both adults and children. These results emphasize the urgent necessity for tailored strategies to reduce contamination and foster sustainable agricultural and environmental management practices.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Monte Carlo Simulation for Evaluating Spatial Dynamics and Ecotoxicological Hazards of Toxic Metals in Surface Water Impacted by Agricultural Runoff in the Sebou Basin, Morocco","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-28 02:59:18","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6740607/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"67a24f46-6077-4ec0-85c2-c11ae6bb5124","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 28th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":49005282,"name":"Environmental Engineering"},{"id":49005283,"name":"Marine and Freshwater Ecology"},{"id":49005284,"name":"Ecological Modeling"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-05-28T02:59:18+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-28 02:59:18","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6740607","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6740607","identity":"rs-6740607","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}