Time Series Modeling of Livebirths and Stillbirths: A Case Study of Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital Complex, Ile-Ife

Livebirths and stillbirths are key public health indicators, with significant social and economic consequences. This study applies time series modeling to the quarterly data of livebirths and stillbirths recorded at Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital Complex (OAUTHC), Ile-Ife, from 2001 to 2020. Using Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, the data were confirmed to be stationary. Appropriate ARMA models ARMA(2,3) for livebirths and ARMA(1,3) for stillbirths were fitted based on minimum values of AIC, BIC, and HQIC. Forecasts indicate a sharp increase in livebirths between 2021 and 2023, with a relatively stable trend in stillbirths. These findings underscore the importance of continuous improvement in maternal healthcare and data-driven planning.