Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model

Objectives A ‘Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)’ monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on June 23, 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as July 25. Design A modeling study. Setting and Participants Daily confirmed Monkeypox cases of the global, United States, Spain, Brazil, and United Kingdom were retrieved from the Global health team till September 23,2022. All conducted analyses are at the aggregate level. without involvement of confidential information. Primary and secondary outcome measures The Bayesian SIR ( Susceptible-Infected-Recovered ) model with Directed Acyclic Graphic method was used to estimate the basic/effective reproductive number (R 0 / R e ) and to assess the epidemic spread of Monkeypox in the globe. Results The maximum estimated R 0 / R e was 1.16 (1.15-1.17), 1.20 (1.20-1.20), 1.34 (1.34-1.35), and 1.33 (1.33-1.33) in United States, Spain, Brazil, and United Kingdom, respectively. The values of R 0 / R e was toward to below 1 after August, 2022. The estimated infectious time before isolation ranged from 2.05 to 2.74 days. Conclusions The PHEIC of global spreading of human Monkeypox outside Africa has been contained so as to avoid a pandemic in the light of the reasoning-based epidemic model assessment. Strengths and limitations of this study We estimated the epidemiology parameters based on the Bayesian SIR model for the uncertainty transmission of monkeypox under assumptions of homogeneous random mixing population and surveillance systems were the same across countries. This approach can minimize biases between population, different surveillance systems across countries. Estimating results of R0 were limited but consistent between countries and similar to the simulation data by the deterministic SIR model.