Eliminating climate change mitigation trade-offs in African rangelands

Eliminating climate change mitigation trade-offs in African rangelands | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Eliminating climate change mitigation trade-offs in African rangelands Matt Clark, Cosima Fröhner, Andreas Jørgensen, Thomas Pienkowski, and 8 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7750461/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is intensifying precipitation variability in southern African rangelands, driving dynamics that pastoral systems are unprepared to cope with. Simultaneously, developments in weather forecast accuracy and access may enable pastoralists to effectively adapt to these conditions. Here, we use a spatial agent-based model to study the benefits of weather forecasting for adaptive rangeland management with and without concurrent risk-smoothing interventions. Given empirical and projected conditions across seven southern African countries, we show that: 1) precipitation variability can reduce average economic wellbeing and worsen inequality amongst pastoralists; 2) if paired with the adaptive use of weather forecasting, risk smoothing interventions such as the provision of supplemental fodder can buffer these effects without overstocking; and 3) risk smoothing is critical for scaling adaptive management practices. Overall, we show how pairing forecasts and risk smoothing can reduce trade-offs inherent to each intervention alone, supporting climate change adaptation at scale. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change adaptation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7750461","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":522803187,"identity":"39148ad9-0c6e-4921-a204-59e0c69169a2","order_by":0,"name":"Matt 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