Detection of the First Icing Roads in Winter: The Case of Gümüşhane City (Türkiye)

Detection of the First Icing Roads in Winter: The Case of Gümüşhane City (Türkiye) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Detection of the First Icing Roads in Winter: The Case of Gümüşhane City (Türkiye) Fatih Işık, Savaş Çağlak, Selim Eraslan, Halil İbrahim Zeybek, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5278549/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study aims to assess the risks of ice and snowfall in Gümüşhane city center during the winter months. Icing poses serious risks to vehicular and pedestrian traffic in winter, and understanding and managing this situation is critical for urban safety. The study area covers various neighborhoods and streets within Gümüşhane's city limits in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Türkiye. The materials and methods used include Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, field studies, and analysis of meteorological data. We evaluated various parameters such as solar radiation, slope, precipitation, temperature, and elevation using GIS techniques. Field studies identified icing risks in shaded areas, sloping terrain, and congested streets, and recorded coordinate information for precise localization. The study determined that areas with narrow and high-rise buildings, known as "urban canyons," have a particularly high risk of icing. We observed icing more frequently and intensely in these areas due to the inability of sunlight to reach them. The lack of sunlight exacerbated the frequency and intensity of icing in these regions. Additionally, the formation of hidden icing as a result of melting snow and ice in sloping areas was also an important finding. In conclusion, the winter risks identified in this study are critical for traffic safety in Gümüşhane city center during the winter months. These findings may be used by the municipality and related institutions to guide their winter season plans. This approach aims to ensure safe transportation in the city during the winter season. Icing Risk Urban Canyon Geographic Information Systems (GIS) AHP Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 1. Introduction In winter seasons, the drop in air temperatures below 0°C causes the freezing of surface liquids, resulting in the formation of ice (NOAA, 2024 ; Organization, 1992 ; WMO, 2017 ). Following the rainfall and snowfall, freezing events are observed as temperatures drop (Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü [MGM], 2022 ). This situation creates challenging moments, especially for drivers and pedestrians in traffic, and poses a serious safety issue (Cary, 2010 ). In a continental climate type, summers are hot and dry, while winters are cold and generally snowy (Erinç, 1996 ). In Türkiye, the continental climate type dominates the high areas of the inner parts of the Eastern Anatolia Region, the Central Anatolia Region, and the Eastern Black Sea Region (Atalay, 2013 ). Low temperatures are one of the characteristics of a continental climate, which, particularly in the interior regions, lead to snowfall and frost events during the winter months as degrees drop. According to the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report, as the amount of global warming increases, the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events will also rise (IPCC, 2022 ). In this context, it is expected that the incidence of ice occurring during winter periods will also increase due to the effects of global warming. Sudden temperature drops and subsequent frost events can lead to more frequent and severe icing, especially in regions dominated by a continental climate. This situation poses serious risks in terms of traffic safety and creates dangerous conditions for both drivers and pedestrians (Hong et al., 2021 ). In cities like Gümüşhane, where heavy snowfall and low temperatures are common during the winter months, the increase in the frequency and severity of ice formation has a negative impact on residents' daily lives and safety. For this reason, it is critical to understand the local impacts of global climate change and take the necessary measures. The city of Gümüşhane, located in the region behind the Black Sea, experiences frigid and harsh winters due to its physical geography characteristics (Atalay & Mortan, 2011 ). This situation causes social problems in the city. The harsh winter conditions in Gümüşhane not only affect daily life but can also impact important sectors such as agriculture, transportation, and energy. For this reason, examining the long-term temperature trends in the city is important for both daily life and infrastructure planning. In this regard, according to the data from the Gümüşhane Meteorology Station Directorate (1965–2020), the long-term average value of daily average temperatures at the Gümüşhane station is 9.6°C (MGM, 2024 ). The coldest months at this station are December, January, February, and March (Fig. 1 ). In January and February, the daily average temperatures are below 0°C for 9 days. During this period, which can be considered a cold season, the lowest daily average temperature was recorded on January 15th, at -2.9°C (Gürçay, 2022 ). Since February 24th, average daily temperatures have risen above 0°C. The other period when temperatures drop below 0°C corresponds to the second half of December. At the Gümüşhane Meteorology Station, during the December-February period, daily average temperatures fell below 0°C for 64 days, while the period when temperatures were below 5°C spans from November to March (132 days) (Gürçay, 2022 ). When examining the monthly average temperatures of the station in the research area, it is observed that January has the lowest average temperature at -1.8°C. The temporal variation in winter temperatures at the station is an important indicator of the effect arising from maritime and continental characteristics. The Zigana Mountains, which stretch roughly east-west in the north of the year, block the humid air mass, causing the city to experience a cold climate during the winter months (Atalay, 2017 ). This situation is a significant reason for the harsh winter conditions in Gümüşhane and the frequency of icing events. Long-term averages show a total of 103.8 frost days in the city of Gümüşhane. Not only do cloudy days occur in the summer months, but they also occur in all other months. In particular, December, January, and February are the months with the highest number of frosty days (Fig. 2 ). Because of the cold weather during these months, frost events occur more frequently. This situation negatively affects all aspects of life, especially traffic. Additionally, the city of Gümüşhane has a climate that is predominantly continental compared to the Eastern Black Sea coastal region. For this reason, the number of snowy days averages about 35 days per year (Işık et al., 2019 ). The heaviest snowfall occurs in December, January, and February. This situation increases the frequency and severity of icing events that occur in the city during the winter months, negatively impacting the residents' daily lives and safety. The continental climate conditions extend the duration of snow cover on the ground, leading to a high number of snowy days. According to long-term measurements from the Gümüşhane Meteorology Station, the average snow depth in the city can reach up to 1 meter in winter (Işık et al., 2019 ). In 1992, we measured the highest snow depth at 2.5 meters, and in 2014, we recorded the lowest snow depth at 14 cm (Fig. 3 ). As stated above, the climate conditions in the city of Gümüşhane are very harsh during the winter months. The problems brought about by both rainfall and physical characteristics negatively affect life, especially during the winter season (Işık et al., 2019 ). The snowfall that occurs during the winter months sometimes leads to road closures and a constant formation of ice throughout the winter. Icing is a natural phenomenon that occurs at temperatures below 0°C, and this situation can cause roads to become slippery. Accumulated snow or ice on airports, highways, and bridges is causing accidents for careless drivers (Balbay & Esen, 2007 ). The formation of ice on road surfaces reduces the friction resistance between vehicle tires and the pavement, leading to slipperiness (“Gizli buzlanma Gümüşhane’de kazaya sebep oldu...”, 2022) and potentially causing serious problems (Seferoğlu et al., 2015 ). The central population of the city of Gümüşhane is 54,503 people, according to the 2023 data. The population consists of 26,974 males and 27,529 females (TÜİK, 2024 ). A significant portion of the population consists of university, high school, middle school, and elementary school students. On the central campus alone, there are 14,988 university students, 2,755 high school students, 1,971 middle school students, 2,542 elementary school students, and 735 kindergarten students. In the mountainous and northern slopes of the city, the long duration of snow cover and the late onset of melting ice lead to prolonged transportation issues. This situation is causing significant problems for this student population, including disruptions in education and injuries like broken arms and legs (“Gümüşhane’de eğitime buzlanma engeli”, 2022; “Gümüşhane’de okullar buzlanma ve don nedeniyle...”, 2022). The snowfall and icing that occur during the winter months due to climate conditions have a significant impact on city life. The aim of this study is to prevent the closure of roads due to snowfall and icing in the city of Gümüşhane and to expedite the resolution process of health and safety issues arising from such natural disasters. For the first time in Türkiye, this study aims to address a crucial need by detecting frozen and closed roads and devising solutions to the issue. In this context, the study's importance is quite high. The identification of areas in the city of Gümüşhane where snowfall and ice events frequently occur, along with the creation of a detailed icing map, will be achieved through the use of meteorological data and topographic factors. Additionally, developing strategies for identifying and clearing priority routes during transportation closures involves evaluating factors such as traffic density, geographical location, and usage priority. This study also aims to create a more resilient urban structure against future icing issues by providing recommendations for urban planning and infrastructure development in areas with a high risk of icing. In this way, it is aimed to contribute to the more effective adaptation of the climate conditions such as snowfall and icing in the city of Gümüşhane and to enhance the safety and quality of life of its residents. 2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Location of the Study Area We conducted this study in the city of Gümüşhane, situated in the Eastern Black Sea Region of the Black Sea Area. Gümüşhane appears to be a city that is quite rugged, high, and built on a valley floor in terms of its physical geography features (Fig. 4 ). Situated between the Black Sea climate and the transition to a continental climate, the city experiences hot and dry summers and cold, snowy winters. This climate transition zone makes the effects of ice and snowfall in the city more pronounced during the winter months. 2.2. Data description This study has created base maps using data from various institutions and organizations (Table 1 ). The General Command of Mapping has provided data at a resolution of 5 meters for the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and topographic information. The study also obtained climate data from the General Directorate of Meteorology. These data have formed the basis for analyzing the spatial distribution of snowfall and icing events in the city of Gümüşhane and creating a detailed icing map. Table 1 Shows the data and programs used in the research. Data Data Source Produced Data Topographic maps at a scale of 1:25,000 T. C. Ministry of National Defense General Directorate of Mapping (HGM) Contour line, hill, river, lake, etc. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Creating a DEM with a resolution of 5 m Global climate and weather data WorldClim (Fick & Hijmans, 2017 ) https://www.worldclim.org/data/index.html Creation of the precipitation map. Programs R Studio https://www.r-project.org/ Visualization of climate data HGM Sphere https://kure.harita.gov.tr/ Location determination, distance measurement, etc. Google Earth Pro https://earth.google.com/web ArcGIS 10.7.1 https://www.esri.com/enus/home Viewing geographic data, regulation, creation, and analysis 2.3. Data Analysis We have used the R Studio program for the analysis and visualization of climate data (R Development Core Team, 2013 ). We have examined long-term data on temperature, snowfall, and icing for the city of Gümüşhane in detail during this process. R Studio's powerful data analysis and visualization capabilities have effectively visualized the temporal distributions of climate data. These visualizations have made the findings of the study clearer and more interpretable. 2.4. Analytical Hierarchy Process Nowadays, there are many studies aimed at detecting road hazards, road conditions, and road-related disasters using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Studies have been conducted by Brini et al., 2021 ; Hong et al., 2021 ; Mousavi Tayebi et al., 2021 ; Shin et al., 2020 ; T. Liu et al., 2014 ; B. Liu et al., 2013 ; S. Li et al., 2011 ; Dyras & Serafin-Rek, 2005 . This study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as its method. ArcGIS 10.7.1, a scalable integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) software, has implemented the AHP method. We conducted analyses using the AHP method, creating parameter maps for temperature and precipitation for the months of December, January, February, March, and April, taking into account factors such as aspect, solar radiation, elevation, and slope. The reclassification process has organized the maps prepared using the "Reclassify" module, which recalculates and classifies values on raster data (Fig. 5 ). We scored all parameter maps using the obtained data and created new maps using the 'Raster Calculator' module in ArcGIS 10.7.1. We used the Saaty ( 2000 ) preference scale to determine the scoring among these parameters (Table 2 ). For these scores, known as weight values, 1 represents the lowest, while 9 indicates the areas where snow and ice are most effective (Saaty, 1989 , 2000 ). We calculated the total effect value by multiplying the effect values of the parameters that influence the formation of biofilm by their weighted (%) values [Supplementary Information (SI) Table 1 ). We have adapted the following formul (1) while conducting analyses for each parameter. Formul (1) $$\:\sum\:_{Susceptibility}=\:A\:\left(Iv\times\:\%\right)+Sr\:\left(Iv\times\:\%\right)+S\:\left(Iv\times\:\%\right)+P\:\left(Iv\times\:\%\right)+T\:\left(Iv\times\:\%\right)+E\:\left(Iv\:\times\:\:\%\right)$$ Where: A : Aspect, Sr : Solar radiation, S: Slope, P : Precipitation, T : Temperature, E : Elevation, Iv : Influence value, %: Weight percentage. As expressed in the formula, the susceptibility area was calculated and determined. In calculating the highest sensitivity value according to the formula. $$\:\sum\:_{Susceptibility}=\:A\:\left(9\times\:25\right)+Sr\:\left(8\times\:25\right)+S\:\left(4\times\:15\right)+P\:\left(2\times\:15\right)+T\:\left(2\times\:10\right)+E\:\left(5\:\times\:10\right)$$ $$\:\sum\:_{Susceptibility}=\:A\:\left(225\right)+Sr\:\left(160\right)+S\:\left(60\right)+P\:\left(30\right)+T\:\left(20\right)+E\:\left(50\right)$$ \(\:\sum\:_{Susceptibility}=\:545\) The procedure has been carried out. Table 2 The AHP provides a preference scale for the parameters (Saaty, 2000 ). Scales Degree of Preference 1 Equally 3 Moderately 5 Strongly 7 Very strongly 9, Extremely 2, 4, 6, 8 Intermediate Reciprocals Opposites 2.5. Area Study The area study identified areas in the city center of Gümüşhane with the potential for icing during the winter months. We have carefully examined shaded areas, highly sloped regions, narrow streets, places where ice has not melted for a long time, and points with high vehicle density during this study. We have pinpointed the presence of city canyons, areas without sunlight, steep roads, and areas with heavy traffic. We have conducted observations and measurements in these areas to pinpoint the most intense icing locations, and we have recorded the coordinate information using GPS devices. We created frost sensitivity maps and analyses using the collected data. 3. Results We analyzed the parameters to determine their effects on the formation of icing events. These parameters, when combined with various factors, significantly contribute to the formation of ice surfaces during the winter months. Here are the findings for each parameter: Aspect Aspect is emerging as an important factor in ice formation events. Due to Gümüşhane's location in the valleys, the city typically spreads across slopes facing south (SI-Fig. 1). Observations indicate that sunlight plays a reducing role in ice formation on south-facing slopes, while on north-facing slopes, ice formation is more common due to limited exposure to sunlight. This difference emphasizes the importance of perspective in determining the likelihood of icing events. Solar Radiation Solar radiation represents the amount of energy coming from the sun. Analyses have determined that areas heavily exposed to sunlight during the winter months experience a reduction in ice formation due to solar radiation values (SI-Fig. 2). The effect of solar radiation becomes more pronounced, especially on south-facing slopes, where the potential for sunlight exposure is higher. In contrast, north-facing slopes and shaded areas are more likely to form ice due to their exposure to less sunlight. Furthermore, in urban areas such as narrow passages where sunlight is limited, prolonged icing has been observed, highlighting the critical role of solar radiation in icing dynamics. Slope Gümüşhane's topographic structure, with its steep slopes, increases the sensitivity to icing during the winter months (SI-Fig. 3). Steep areas can lead to icing events that pose a potential danger, especially for vehicle traffic. Additionally, the melting snow from high-altitude areas accumulates in low-lying regions, leading to the formation of ice as temperatures drop. Precipitation Precipitation is another parameter that significantly affects icing events. The form of precipitation, in particular, plays a decisive role in ice formation. For example, the average rainfall in December ranges between 46.9 and 49.0 mm. Precipitation and low temperature values during this period are causing ice formation. In January and February, the average rainfall amounts range from 38.940.0 mm and 0.6−14.3 mm, respectively (SI-Fig. 4). In March, the average rainfall amounts to 54.7−61.6 mm. The increasing amount of rainfall during these months can lead to snowmelt. In general, low amounts and forms of precipitation, when combined with cold weather conditions, cause icing events. Temperature Temperature values have a significant impact on frost events. The spatial analyses conducted have shown that in December, temperature values ranged between − 0.2 and 0.3°C. We measured the temperature values in January between − 2.5 and − 0.9°C (SI-Fig. 5). We observed temperature values ranging from − 1.0 to 0.7°C in February and 3.0 to 4.8°C in March. We measured the temperature values for April between 8.7 and 9.2°C. Low temperatures are causing an increase in freezing events and accelerating ice formation. Finally, there is a significant relationship between elevation values and the freezing process. High elevation causes icing events to occur more rapidly (SI-Fig. 6). The likelihood of icing is higher, especially in northern slopes and high-altitude areas. We have observed that each parameter plays a critical role in the occurrence of icing events, and we have combined these parameters to create sensitivity maps in line with these findings. We combined six parameters based on all these findings to create sensitivity maps that represent five different sensitivity levels for the months of December, January, February, March, and April (Fig. 6 ). We have classified these sensitivity levels as very low, low, medium, high, and very high. Upon examining the proportional distribution of areas based on sensitivity classes, we found that over 50% of the area falls within these classes during the months of December, January, February, and March (SI-Table 2). Areas with very low and low sensitivity groups generally correspond to southern slopes in regions where elevation and slope are minimal. The areas in the medium sensitivity group correspond to places that receive sunlight due to the angle factor and where heat accumulation is high. The areas in the high-sensitivity group are those where the elevation increases, the temperature is low, and they face the northern slopes. Generally, high altitudes on northern slopes, where temperature values are negative, no heat accumulation occurs, and the gradient is steep, are home to highly sensitive areas. High-rise buildings cluster closely together, creating a narrow passage known as the urban canyon. Such areas are known as regions where sunlight cannot reach directly, wind flow is limited, and they are generally shaded. The inability of sunlight to reach these areas leads to lower temperatures and more intense ice formation (Fig. 7 ). Our findings reveal a higher prevalence of icing in the areas classified as the urban canyon, specifically in the city of Gümüşhane. In these areas, the exposure to sunlight is very low, and therefore, icing lasts longer in these regions. The lack of sunlight and narrow passages significantly prolong the melting time of ice. This situation poses a significant risk for people walking and driving in urban canyons. Especially in areas of the city with dense construction, the risk of icing significantly increases in narrow passages where sunlight cannot reach. These regions' observations point to the critical importance of urban canyons in terms of ice, underscoring the need for special measures. As a result, these shaded and narrow areas, referred to as urban canyons, are the places where icing is most intense in the city. As a result, it is critical to pay more attention to the risk of icing in these areas during the winter months and to take the necessary precautions. 4. Discussion/Conclusion The research findings have identified the areas in the city center of Gümüşhane that pose the highest risk of ice and snowfall during the winter months (Supplementary Information). In the city center of Gümüşhane, the areas most at risk for icing and snowfall during the winter months are Özcan Neighborhood and İnönü Street. These areas consistently rank among the risky zones in all analyzed months, indicating a persistent high-risk situation. Hasanbey Neighborhood and Süleymaniye Road, on the other hand, exhibit significant risk and have been on the list multiple times. This situation suggests that we should pay special attention to winter weather conditions in these regions and implement additional measures to mitigate risks. The research found a higher risk of icing in urban canyons than expected (Fig. 8 ). Contrary to expectations, this finding underscores the significance of solar radiation in sloped areas. Studies have shown that urban canyons can significantly influence microclimatic conditions, leading to increased risk of icing due to reduced solar radiation and limited wind flow (Oke, 1988 ). The fact that water formed from the melting of snow and ice can create hidden ice on sloped areas, especially on sunny days during the winter months, complicates this situation even further (Chapman & Thornes, 2006 ). On the other hand, the study must focus on the impact of the road structure. Previous research indeed supports that the road material (asphalt, cobblestone, concrete, etc.) can influence the freezing process differently (Baumgärtel et al., 2021 ; Mkwata & Chong, 2022 ). Therefore, we may need to address these features in more detail in future research. We also know that the color of objects, the structure of cities, and the topography can all affect how we receive solar energy (Levinson & Akbari, 2002 ; Tehrani et al., 2024 ). These factors can also affect solar energy absorption and reflection, as well as the risk of icing. On the other hand, it should be considered that the changing angle of solar energy throughout the day can affect icing conditions (D. Li et al., 2014 ; Z. Li et al., 2021 ). We can also observe variations in the risk of frost in the morning, noon, and evening hours as the sun's angle changes. Future studies need to address these issues in more detail. Gümüşhane, with its continental climate conditions and its location along the valley, is subject to heavy snowfall in winter compared to the Eastern Black Sea coastal region due to the influence of geomorphological features, solar radiation, aspect, precipitation, and temperature parameters, leading to the formation of ice. The city, located between two mountains, has a topography that is not suitable for horizontal architectural development, while its sloped and rugged hillsides support vertical architectural growth. This situation reveals that the geographical features of Gömüşhane are a determining factor in urban planning and architecture. The study's findings indicate that various environmental factors contribute significantly to the occurrence of icing events in Gümüşhane. In aspect, parameters such as solar radiation, slope, precipitation, temperature, and elevation significantly contribute to the formation of ice surfaces during the winter months. Aspect and solar radiation play an important role in determining the differences between areas exposed to the sun and those that are not. We more commonly observe icing in areas with steep slopes. Horton et al., ( 2015 ) state that topographic features such as slope and elevation affect the distribution of surface frost crystals, and that larger crystals form in such areas. Our study also demonstrates the significant influence of factors like slope and elevation on the intensity of icing events. Kusaka and Kimura ( 2004 ) conducted a study on the thermal effects of urban canyon structures, highlighting the role of large thermal capacity and small sky view factors in the formation of urban heat islands. This study states that urban canyons are defined as areas where direct sunlight cannot reach, wind flow is limited, and shaded spaces exist. Such areas cause temperatures to remain low and lead to more intense icing. Similarly, our study has revealed that there is more ice in areas defined as urban canyons. In these areas, the exposure to sunlight is low, and frost persists for a longer duration. Passageways prolong the melting time of ice, thereby posing a significant risk to pedestrian and vehicle traffic. In areas with particularly dense construction, the risk of icing increases. The study, while evaluating the effects of solar radiation on icing events, identified parallels with literature findings regarding the operation of this process, particularly in the urban canyon areas of Gümüşhane. Dombrovsky ( 2024 ) emphasizes in his study that the snow cover hinders sunlight from penetrating the ice, thereby slowing down the melting process. This study also confirmed this observation. In the urban canyon areas of Gümüşhane, the duration of freezing is longer in areas where sunlight does not reach, which leads to hazardous icy conditions during the winter months. Additionally, just as a thick layer of snow prevents sunlight from reaching the ice, the shaded surfaces of buildings in urban canyons create a similar effect. The icing on these surfaces melts later and lasts longer compared to areas exposed to sunlight. This situation suggests that freezing in urban canyons prolongs the melting process, posing a risk to pedestrians and vehicles. These findings are among the important points that should be considered in urban planning. In conclusion, this study reveals that environmental factors play a significant role in the formation and continuation of icing in various regions of Gümüşhane. These findings are important data that should be considered for urban planning and ensuring safe pedestrian and vehicle traffic during the winter months. We should take measures, particularly in areas not exposed to sunlight, to effectively reduce the risk of icing. It has been observed that the risk of icing is higher in the months of December and January in the city of Gümüşhane (SI-Fig. 7). It has been determined that areas with high vehicle density coincide with risky zones, and it has been observed that the presence of ice in these areas disrupts social life. Based on the results obtained, the recommendations for addressing the snow and ice formation in the work area are as follows: • In areas known as urban canyons, the use of solar panel underfloor heating techniques reduces the risk of overheating (Mirzanamadi et al., 2018 ). • When removing snow and ice, it's important to prioritize opening roads in neighborhoods and streets that are at risk (Shi & Fu, 2018 ). • The installation of speed-reducing strips and barriers in sloped areas (Persia et al., 2016 ), • Priority should be given to opening the roads within the boundaries of high-risk neighborhoods, which include schools, hospitals, elderly care facilities, and similar institutions (Shi, 2010 ). • Prioritize cleaning and salting of main roads, bridges, and hazardous areas (Shi, 2010 ). • Establishing regular snow removal and salting programs during snowfall in Gümüşhane (Kociánová, 2015 ), Regular maintenance and repair of snow removal equipment is crucial for ensuring the swift and efficient execution of snow clearing operations. Declarations Competing Interests The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article. Author Contribution F.I. (Fatih Işık) contributed to the manuscript writing, literature review, all analysis, methodology, and map drawing.S.Ç. (Savaş Çağlak) contributed to methodology development and map drawing.S.E. (Selim Eraslan) contributed to the manuscript writing, map drawing, and analysis.H.İ.Z. (Halil İbrahim Zeybek) contributed to the manuscript writing and literature review.R.K. (Rabia Kanyılmaz) contributed to map drawing and analysis.All authors reviewed and approved the final manuscript. Acknowledgement We would like to express our gratitude to TÜBİTAK for supporting this research. Their contribution was invaluable in helping us carry out this study. References Atalay İ (2013) Uygulamalı Klimatoloji (2. Baskı). META Basım Matbaacılık Hizmetleri Atalay İ (2017) Türkiye Jeomorfolojisi. 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Trans GIS 15(2):189–211. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9671.2011.01250.x Li Z, Wang Q, Tang M, Lu P, Li G, Leppäranta M, Huotari J, Arvola L, Shi L (2021) Diurnal cycle model of lake ice surface albedo: A case study of wuliangsuhai lake. Remote Sens 13(16):1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13163334 Liu B, Lv Y, Guo Z (2013) A study of road surface ice prediction based on highway operations and safety. ICTIS 2013: Improving Multimodal Transportation Systems - Information, Safety, and Integration - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety , 1245–1251. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413036.167 Liu T, Wang N, Yu H, Basara J, Hong Y, Eric, Bukkapatnam S (2014) Black Ice Detection and Road Closure Control System for Oklahoma. IEEE Intell Transp Syst Mag April 2017:91–102. http://www.okladot.state.ok.us/research/FinalRep_2249_FHWA-OK-14-08.pdf Meteoroloji sözlüğü . Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü [MGM], Çevre TC (2022) Şehirciilik ve İklim Değişikliği Bakanlığı, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü. https://www.mgm.gov.tr/genel/meteorolojisozlugu.aspx?m=S&k=aa10 MGM (2024) Resmi İstatistikler . T.C. Çevre, Şehircilik ve İklim Değişikliği Bakanlığı-Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü. https://www.mgm.gov.tr/ Mirzanamadi R, Hagentoft C-E, Johansson P (2018) Numerical Investigation of Harvesting Solar Energy and Anti-Icing Road Surfaces Using a Hydronic Heating Pavement and Borehole Thermal Energy Storage. Energies 11(12):3443. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11123443 Mkwata R, Chong EEM (2022) Effect of pavement surface conditions on road traffic accident - A Review. E3S Web of Conferences , 347 , 01017. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202234701017 Mousavi Tayebi SA, Tayyebi M, S., Pastor M (2021) Depth-integrated two-phase modeling of two real cases: A comparison between r.avaflow and geoflow-sph codes. Appl Sci (Switzerland) 11(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/app11125751 NOAA (2024) Icing . National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/icing_stuff/icing/icing.htm Oke TR (1988) Street design and urban canopy layer climate. Energy Build 11(1–3):103–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-7788(88)90026-6 Organization WM (1992) International Meteorological Vocabulary (Geneva-Swi). World Meteorological Organization (WMO), WMO-No. 182. https://library.wmo.int/viewer/35809?medianame=wmo_182-1992_en_#page=1&viewer=picture&o=bookmarks&n=0&q = Persia L, Usami DS, De Simone F, Beaumelle VFD, La, Yannis G, Laiou A, Han S, Machata K, Pennisi L, Marchesini P, Salathè M (2016) Management of Road Infrastructure Safety. Transp Res Procedia 14:3436–3445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.303 Saaty TL (1989) Hierarchical-Multiobjective Systems. Theory Adv Technol 5(2):485–489 Saaty TL (2000) Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory With the Analytic Hierarchy Process. RWS. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=wct10TlbbIUC Seferoğlu AG, Seferoğlu MT, Akpinar MV (2015) Karayolu ve Havayolu Kaplamalarında Kullanılan Kar ve Buzla Mücadele Yöntemlerinin Mali Analizi. Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 3(1):407–416 Shi X (2010) Winter road maintenance: Best practices, emerging challenges, and research needs. J Public Works Infrastructure 2(4):318–326 Shi X, Fu L (eds) (2018) Sustainable Winter Road Operations. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119185161 Shin Y, Choi JC, Quinteros S, Svendsen I, L’Heureux J-S, Seong J (2020) Evaluation and Monitoring of Slope Stability in Cold Region: Case Study of Man-Made Slope at Øysand, Norway. Appl Sci 10(12):4136. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10124136 Team RDC (2013) R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing Tehrani AA, Veisi O, Fakhr BV, Du D (2024) Predicting solar radiation in the urban area: A data-driven analysis for sustainable city planning using artificial neural networking. Sustainable Cities and Society , 100 (May 2023). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.105042 TÜİK (2024) İstatistik Veri Portalı . Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Nufus-ve-Demografi-109 WMO (2017) Glaze . World Meteorological Organization (WMO). https://cloudatlas.wmo.int/en/glaze.html Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5278549","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":367631059,"identity":"142101b7-0416-4dee-a47e-d58904ff1dd2","order_by":0,"name":"Fatih Işık","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYGhsNAOgHM+2BgAyQZGw/g08JzgBmoJQGihXFGQRqIaiCohRmmhZnjw2GwKH4t7OcPHi78cS9Pvr0XqNvgvN3a9sNAW2psonFq4UlmODwjobiYsedcAnOBwe3kbWcSgVqOpeU24NBizwDUwpOQkNgskWPAPAOoxewAUAtjw2GcWnj4H0O0tIG08BicSzY7/5CAFgmoLT0QLQfszG4QskXiscFhnrSEYgmeMwYHZxgkJ5jdANqSgMcvPPyJjz/z2CQAQ6zH8MGHP3b2ZufTHz74UGODUwsKOADEiWCVCcQohwF7UhSPglEwCkbByAAA239hre/oQqAAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Gümüşhane University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fatih","middleName":"","lastName":"Işık","suffix":""},{"id":367631060,"identity":"39b21f5f-007c-4f14-b608-85582f2e99d0","order_by":1,"name":"Savaş Çağlak","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ministry of National 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22:38:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5278549/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5278549/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":67322643,"identity":"dee93762-4e7e-49b2-b8f4-104f8d763b58","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:04:49","extension":"jpeg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":114310,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eClimadiagram of the Gümüşhane station.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/34a83425b4b5345e35737e62.jpeg"},{"id":67322641,"identity":"e21552c5-e397-4204-b928-bff7a6bbf9ae","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:04:49","extension":"jpeg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":75796,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe Gümüşhane station records the number of frost days each month and the average number of snowfall days.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/58446b60b6478c2deef11b4d.jpeg"},{"id":67323482,"identity":"de5345ed-8d39-4fbf-a0ee-30d9679c16c5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:12:49","extension":"jpeg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":131185,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe Gümüşhane station records the snow depth (1965-2020).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.3.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/a64900337e9019ba15db83e7.jpeg"},{"id":67322647,"identity":"cb12cbec-1408-4cb6-8f7b-0552139e637e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:04:49","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":4055607,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMap of the city of Gümüşhane\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/a0bbf9352ba69e8c72d4729d.jpg"},{"id":67322649,"identity":"c1703956-0611-4c00-9805-a987ba60ee57","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:04:49","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":145845,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eWe are in the process of developing the corrosion sensitivity map.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/0038d3132dac5779d5dea276.jpg"},{"id":67322646,"identity":"f1228eb6-82cb-4624-b39a-330760c42451","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:04:49","extension":"jpg","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":4613432,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSensitivity maps of icing.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.6.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/0400295b7e1a1ac4fc71a335.jpg"},{"id":67323484,"identity":"f0ef88b0-2a18-4ae8-98fb-ffc06ae6b4b9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:12:49","extension":"jpg","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":545486,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eUrban canyons have formed in areas where high-rise buildings extend parallel to each other (Red arrows indicate urban canyons). These areas stand out as shaded regions that do not receive sunlight throughout the year (“Gümüşhane’de karla gelen güzellik”, 2022).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.7.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/fab033e7e8a7bffdace95940.jpg"},{"id":67323483,"identity":"8678304c-7406-4465-ae75-a0b431c93dcc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:12:49","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":883116,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eCumhuriyet Avenue offers a view of the city canyon, marked by yellow lines.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/bf11bfaeb1a1bdc372485787.png"},{"id":84493021,"identity":"8319c6eb-fb80-4cba-89f4-d20d8943171d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-12 15:02:18","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":11107933,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/f15ac7fb-368e-4028-8071-ed632d9009f2.pdf"},{"id":67323485,"identity":"2d31e4e1-c35c-44c7-96d7-1e3e2b631222","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-23 16:12:49","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":6804435,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryinformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5278549/v1/c066eaae532226a7d414b3d8.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Detection of the First Icing Roads in Winter: The Case of Gümüşhane City (Türkiye)","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn winter seasons, the drop in air temperatures below 0\u0026deg;C causes the freezing of surface liquids, resulting in the formation of ice (NOAA, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e; Organization, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR37\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1992\u003c/span\u003e; WMO, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). Following the rainfall and snowfall, freezing events are observed as temperatures drop (Meteoroloji Genel M\u0026uuml;d\u0026uuml;rl\u0026uuml;ğ\u0026uuml; [MGM], \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). This situation creates challenging moments, especially for drivers and pedestrians in traffic, and poses a serious safety issue (Cary, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). In a continental climate type, summers are hot and dry, while winters are cold and generally snowy (Erin\u0026ccedil;, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1996\u003c/span\u003e). In T\u0026uuml;rkiye, the continental climate type dominates the high areas of the inner parts of the Eastern Anatolia Region, the Central Anatolia Region, and the Eastern Black Sea Region (Atalay, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). Low temperatures are one of the characteristics of a continental climate, which, particularly in the interior regions, lead to snowfall and frost events during the winter months as degrees drop.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report, as the amount of global warming increases, the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events will also rise (IPCC, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). In this context, it is expected that the incidence of ice occurring during winter periods will also increase due to the effects of global warming. Sudden temperature drops and subsequent frost events can lead to more frequent and severe icing, especially in regions dominated by a continental climate. This situation poses serious risks in terms of traffic safety and creates dangerous conditions for both drivers and pedestrians (Hong et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). In cities like G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane, where heavy snowfall and low temperatures are common during the winter months, the increase in the frequency and severity of ice formation has a negative impact on residents' daily lives and safety. For this reason, it is critical to understand the local impacts of global climate change and take the necessary measures.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane, located in the region behind the Black Sea, experiences frigid and harsh winters due to its physical geography characteristics (Atalay \u0026amp; Mortan, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e). This situation causes social problems in the city. The harsh winter conditions in G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane not only affect daily life but can also impact important sectors such as agriculture, transportation, and energy. For this reason, examining the long-term temperature trends in the city is important for both daily life and infrastructure planning. In this regard, according to the data from the G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane Meteorology Station Directorate (1965\u0026ndash;2020), the long-term average value of daily average temperatures at the G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane station is 9.6\u0026deg;C (MGM, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The coldest months at this station are December, January, February, and March (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). In January and February, the daily average temperatures are below 0\u0026deg;C for 9 days. During this period, which can be considered a cold season, the lowest daily average temperature was recorded on January 15th, at -2.9\u0026deg;C (G\u0026uuml;r\u0026ccedil;ay, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSince February 24th, average daily temperatures have risen above 0\u0026deg;C. The other period when temperatures drop below 0\u0026deg;C corresponds to the second half of December. At the G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane Meteorology Station, during the December-February period, daily average temperatures fell below 0\u0026deg;C for 64 days, while the period when temperatures were below 5\u0026deg;C spans from November to March (132 days) (G\u0026uuml;r\u0026ccedil;ay, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). When examining the monthly average temperatures of the station in the research area, it is observed that January has the lowest average temperature at -1.8\u0026deg;C. The temporal variation in winter temperatures at the station is an important indicator of the effect arising from maritime and continental characteristics. The Zigana Mountains, which stretch roughly east-west in the north of the year, block the humid air mass, causing the city to experience a cold climate during the winter months (Atalay, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). This situation is a significant reason for the harsh winter conditions in G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane and the frequency of icing events.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLong-term averages show a total of 103.8 frost days in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane. Not only do cloudy days occur in the summer months, but they also occur in all other months. In particular, December, January, and February are the months with the highest number of frosty days (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). Because of the cold weather during these months, frost events occur more frequently. This situation negatively affects all aspects of life, especially traffic. Additionally, the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane has a climate that is predominantly continental compared to the Eastern Black Sea coastal region. For this reason, the number of snowy days averages about 35 days per year (Işık et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). The heaviest snowfall occurs in December, January, and February. This situation increases the frequency and severity of icing events that occur in the city during the winter months, negatively impacting the residents' daily lives and safety.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe continental climate conditions extend the duration of snow cover on the ground, leading to a high number of snowy days. According to long-term measurements from the G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane Meteorology Station, the average snow depth in the city can reach up to 1 meter in winter (Işık et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). In 1992, we measured the highest snow depth at 2.5 meters, and in 2014, we recorded the lowest snow depth at 14 cm (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). As stated above, the climate conditions in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane are very harsh during the winter months. The problems brought about by both rainfall and physical characteristics negatively affect life, especially during the winter season (Işık et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). The snowfall that occurs during the winter months sometimes leads to road closures and a constant formation of ice throughout the winter. Icing is a natural phenomenon that occurs at temperatures below 0\u0026deg;C, and this situation can cause roads to become slippery. Accumulated snow or ice on airports, highways, and bridges is causing accidents for careless drivers (Balbay \u0026amp; Esen, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe formation of ice on road surfaces reduces the friction resistance between vehicle tires and the pavement, leading to slipperiness (\u0026ldquo;Gizli buzlanma G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane\u0026rsquo;de kazaya sebep oldu...\u0026rdquo;, 2022) and potentially causing serious problems (Seferoğlu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). The central population of the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane is 54,503 people, according to the 2023 data. The population consists of 26,974 males and 27,529 females (T\u0026Uuml;İK, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). A significant portion of the population consists of university, high school, middle school, and elementary school students. On the central campus alone, there are 14,988 university students, 2,755 high school students, 1,971 middle school students, 2,542 elementary school students, and 735 kindergarten students. In the mountainous and northern slopes of the city, the long duration of snow cover and the late onset of melting ice lead to prolonged transportation issues. This situation is causing significant problems for this student population, including disruptions in education and injuries like broken arms and legs (\u0026ldquo;G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane\u0026rsquo;de eğitime buzlanma engeli\u0026rdquo;, 2022; \u0026ldquo;G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane\u0026rsquo;de okullar buzlanma ve don nedeniyle...\u0026rdquo;, 2022). The snowfall and icing that occur during the winter months due to climate conditions have a significant impact on city life.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe aim of this study is to prevent the closure of roads due to snowfall and icing in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane and to expedite the resolution process of health and safety issues arising from such natural disasters. For the first time in T\u0026uuml;rkiye, this study aims to address a crucial need by detecting frozen and closed roads and devising solutions to the issue. In this context, the study's importance is quite high. The identification of areas in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane where snowfall and ice events frequently occur, along with the creation of a detailed icing map, will be achieved through the use of meteorological data and topographic factors. Additionally, developing strategies for identifying and clearing priority routes during transportation closures involves evaluating factors such as traffic density, geographical location, and usage priority. This study also aims to create a more resilient urban structure against future icing issues by providing recommendations for urban planning and infrastructure development in areas with a high risk of icing. In this way, it is aimed to contribute to the more effective adaptation of the climate conditions such as snowfall and icing in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane and to enhance the safety and quality of life of its residents.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Materials and Methods","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1. Location of the Study Area\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe conducted this study in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane, situated in the Eastern Black Sea Region of the Black Sea Area. G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane appears to be a city that is quite rugged, high, and built on a valley floor in terms of its physical geography features (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). Situated between the Black Sea climate and the transition to a continental climate, the city experiences hot and dry summers and cold, snowy winters. This climate transition zone makes the effects of ice and snowfall in the city more pronounced during the winter months.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2. Data description\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study has created base maps using data from various institutions and organizations (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). The General Command of Mapping has provided data at a resolution of 5 meters for the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and topographic information. The study also obtained climate data from the General Directorate of Meteorology. These data have formed the basis for analyzing the spatial distribution of snowfall and icing events in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane and creating a detailed icing map.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eShows the data and programs used in the research.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eData\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eData Source\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eProduced Data\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTopographic maps at a scale of 1:25,000\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eT. C. Ministry of National Defense\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGeneral Directorate of Mapping (HGM)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eContour line, hill, river, lake, etc.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDigital Elevation Model (DEM)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDigital Elevation Model (DEM) Creating a DEM with a resolution of 5 m\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobal climate and weather data\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWorldClim (Fick \u0026amp; Hijmans, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e) \u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://www.worldclim.org/data/index.html\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://www.worldclim.org/data/index.html\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCreation of the precipitation map.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colspan=\"3\" nameend=\"c3\" namest=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePrograms\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eR Studio\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://www.r-project.org/\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://www.r-project.org/\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eVisualization of climate data\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHGM Sphere\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://kure.harita.gov.tr/\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://kure.harita.gov.tr/\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\" morerows=\"1\" rowspan=\"2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLocation determination, distance measurement, etc.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGoogle Earth Pro\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://earth.google.com/web\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://earth.google.com/web\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArcGIS 10.7.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://www.esri.com/enus/home\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://www.esri.com/enus/home\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eViewing geographic data,\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eregulation, creation, and analysis\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.3. Data Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe have used the R Studio program for the analysis and visualization of climate data (R Development Core Team, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). We have examined long-term data on temperature, snowfall, and icing for the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane in detail during this process. R Studio's powerful data analysis and visualization capabilities have effectively visualized the temporal distributions of climate data. These visualizations have made the findings of the study clearer and more interpretable.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.4. Analytical Hierarchy Process\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eNowadays, there are many studies aimed at detecting road hazards, road conditions, and road-related disasters using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Studies have been conducted by Brini et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Hong et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Mousavi Tayebi et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Shin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; T. Liu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e; B. Liu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e; S. Li et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e; Dyras \u0026amp; Serafin-Rek, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2005\u003c/span\u003e. This study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as its method. ArcGIS 10.7.1, a scalable integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) software, has implemented the AHP method. We conducted analyses using the AHP method, creating parameter maps for temperature and precipitation for the months of December, January, February, March, and April, taking into account factors such as aspect, solar radiation, elevation, and slope. The reclassification process has organized the maps prepared using the \"Reclassify\" module, which recalculates and classifies values on raster data (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe scored all parameter maps using the obtained data and created new maps using the 'Raster Calculator' module in ArcGIS 10.7.1. We used the Saaty (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e) preference scale to determine the scoring among these parameters (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). For these scores, known as weight values, 1 represents the lowest, while 9 indicates the areas where snow and ice are most effective (Saaty, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1989\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e). We calculated the total effect value by multiplying the effect values of the parameters that influence the formation of biofilm by their weighted (%) values [Supplementary Information (SI) Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). We have adapted the following formul (1) while conducting analyses for each parameter.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFormul (1)\u003cdiv id=\"Equa\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equa\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\sum\\:_{Susceptibility}=\\:A\\:\\left(Iv\\times\\:\\%\\right)+Sr\\:\\left(Iv\\times\\:\\%\\right)+S\\:\\left(Iv\\times\\:\\%\\right)+P\\:\\left(Iv\\times\\:\\%\\right)+T\\:\\left(Iv\\times\\:\\%\\right)+E\\:\\left(Iv\\:\\times\\:\\:\\%\\right)$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhere: \u003cem\u003eA\u003c/em\u003e: Aspect, \u003cem\u003eSr\u003c/em\u003e: Solar radiation, S: Slope, \u003cem\u003eP\u003c/em\u003e: Precipitation, \u003cem\u003eT\u003c/em\u003e: Temperature, \u003cem\u003eE\u003c/em\u003e: Elevation, \u003cem\u003eIv\u003c/em\u003e: Influence value, %: Weight percentage. As expressed in the formula, the susceptibility area was calculated and determined.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn calculating the highest sensitivity value according to the formula.\u003cdiv id=\"Equb\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equb\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\sum\\:_{Susceptibility}=\\:A\\:\\left(9\\times\\:25\\right)+Sr\\:\\left(8\\times\\:25\\right)+S\\:\\left(4\\times\\:15\\right)+P\\:\\left(2\\times\\:15\\right)+T\\:\\left(2\\times\\:10\\right)+E\\:\\left(5\\:\\times\\:10\\right)$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Equc\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equc\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\sum\\:_{Susceptibility}=\\:A\\:\\left(225\\right)+Sr\\:\\left(160\\right)+S\\:\\left(60\\right)+P\\:\\left(30\\right)+T\\:\\left(20\\right)+E\\:\\left(50\\right)$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e \u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\sum\\:_{Susceptibility}=\\:545\\)\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/span\u003eThe procedure has been carried out.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe AHP provides a preference scale for the parameters (Saaty, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"2\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eScales\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDegree of Preference\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEqually\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eModerately\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrongly\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eVery strongly\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e9,\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtremely\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2, 4, 6, 8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntermediate\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eReciprocals\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpposites\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.5. Area Study\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe area study identified areas in the city center of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane with the potential for icing during the winter months. We have carefully examined shaded areas, highly sloped regions, narrow streets, places where ice has not melted for a long time, and points with high vehicle density during this study. We have pinpointed the presence of city canyons, areas without sunlight, steep roads, and areas with heavy traffic. We have conducted observations and measurements in these areas to pinpoint the most intense icing locations, and we have recorded the coordinate information using GPS devices. We created frost sensitivity maps and analyses using the collected data.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results","content":"\u003cp\u003eWe analyzed the parameters to determine their effects on the formation of icing events. These parameters, when combined with various factors, significantly contribute to the formation of ice surfaces during the winter months. Here are the findings for each parameter:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eAspect\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eAspect is emerging as an important factor in ice formation events. Due to G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane's location in the valleys, the city typically spreads across slopes facing south (SI-Fig.\u0026nbsp;1). Observations indicate that sunlight plays a reducing role in ice formation on south-facing slopes, while on north-facing slopes, ice formation is more common due to limited exposure to sunlight. This difference emphasizes the importance of perspective in determining the likelihood of icing events.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eSolar Radiation\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eSolar radiation represents the amount of energy coming from the sun. Analyses have determined that areas heavily exposed to sunlight during the winter months experience a reduction in ice formation due to solar radiation values (SI-Fig.\u0026nbsp;2). The effect of solar radiation becomes more pronounced, especially on south-facing slopes, where the potential for sunlight exposure is higher. In contrast, north-facing slopes and shaded areas are more likely to form ice due to their exposure to less sunlight. Furthermore, in urban areas such as narrow passages where sunlight is limited, prolonged icing has been observed, highlighting the critical role of solar radiation in icing dynamics.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eSlope\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eG\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane's topographic structure, with its steep slopes, increases the sensitivity to icing during the winter months (SI-Fig.\u0026nbsp;3). Steep areas can lead to icing events that pose a potential danger, especially for vehicle traffic. Additionally, the melting snow from high-altitude areas accumulates in low-lying regions, leading to the formation of ice as temperatures drop.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003ePrecipitation\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrecipitation is another parameter that significantly affects icing events. The form of precipitation, in particular, plays a decisive role in ice formation. For example, the average rainfall in December ranges between 46.9 and 49.0 mm. Precipitation and low temperature values during this period are causing ice formation. In January and February, the average rainfall amounts range from 38.940.0 mm and 0.6\u0026minus;14.3 mm, respectively (SI-Fig.\u0026nbsp;4). In March, the average rainfall amounts to 54.7\u0026minus;61.6 mm. The increasing amount of rainfall during these months can lead to snowmelt. In general, low amounts and forms of precipitation, when combined with cold weather conditions, cause icing events.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eTemperature\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eTemperature values have a significant impact on frost events. The spatial analyses conducted have shown that in December, temperature values ranged between \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.2 and 0.3\u0026deg;C. We measured the temperature values in January between \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2.5 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.9\u0026deg;C (SI-Fig.\u0026nbsp;5). We observed temperature values ranging from \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1.0 to 0.7\u0026deg;C in February and 3.0 to 4.8\u0026deg;C in March. We measured the temperature values for April between 8.7 and 9.2\u0026deg;C. Low temperatures are causing an increase in freezing events and accelerating ice formation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinally, there is a significant relationship between \u003cb\u003eelevation\u003c/b\u003e values and the freezing process. High elevation causes icing events to occur more rapidly (SI-Fig.\u0026nbsp;6). The likelihood of icing is higher, especially in northern slopes and high-altitude areas. We have observed that each parameter plays a critical role in the occurrence of icing events, and we have combined these parameters to create sensitivity maps in line with these findings.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe combined six parameters based on all these findings to create sensitivity maps that represent five different sensitivity levels for the months of December, January, February, March, and April (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e). We have classified these sensitivity levels as very low, low, medium, high, and very high. Upon examining the proportional distribution of areas based on sensitivity classes, we found that over 50% of the area falls within these classes during the months of December, January, February, and March (SI-Table\u0026nbsp;2). Areas with very low and low sensitivity groups generally correspond to southern slopes in regions where elevation and slope are minimal. The areas in the medium sensitivity group correspond to places that receive sunlight due to the angle factor and where heat accumulation is high. The areas in the high-sensitivity group are those where the elevation increases, the temperature is low, and they face the northern slopes. Generally, high altitudes on northern slopes, where temperature values are negative, no heat accumulation occurs, and the gradient is steep, are home to highly sensitive areas.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh-rise buildings cluster closely together, creating a narrow passage known as the urban canyon. Such areas are known as regions where sunlight cannot reach directly, wind flow is limited, and they are generally shaded. The inability of sunlight to reach these areas leads to lower temperatures and more intense ice formation (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOur findings reveal a higher prevalence of icing in the areas classified as the urban canyon, specifically in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane. In these areas, the exposure to sunlight is very low, and therefore, icing lasts longer in these regions. The lack of sunlight and narrow passages significantly prolong the melting time of ice. This situation poses a significant risk for people walking and driving in urban canyons. Especially in areas of the city with dense construction, the risk of icing significantly increases in narrow passages where sunlight cannot reach. These regions' observations point to the critical importance of urban canyons in terms of ice, underscoring the need for special measures.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs a result, these shaded and narrow areas, referred to as urban canyons, are the places where icing is most intense in the city. As a result, it is critical to pay more attention to the risk of icing in these areas during the winter months and to take the necessary precautions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4. Discussion/Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe research findings have identified the areas in the city center of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane that pose the highest risk of ice and snowfall during the winter months (Supplementary Information). In the city center of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane, the areas most at risk for icing and snowfall during the winter months are \u0026Ouml;zcan Neighborhood and İn\u0026ouml;n\u0026uuml; Street. These areas consistently rank among the risky zones in all analyzed months, indicating a persistent high-risk situation. Hasanbey Neighborhood and S\u0026uuml;leymaniye Road, on the other hand, exhibit significant risk and have been on the list multiple times. This situation suggests that we should pay special attention to winter weather conditions in these regions and implement additional measures to mitigate risks.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe research found a higher risk of icing in urban canyons than expected (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e). Contrary to expectations, this finding underscores the significance of solar radiation in sloped areas. Studies have shown that urban canyons can significantly influence microclimatic conditions, leading to increased risk of icing due to reduced solar radiation and limited wind flow (Oke, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1988\u003c/span\u003e). The fact that water formed from the melting of snow and ice can create hidden ice on sloped areas, especially on sunny days during the winter months, complicates this situation even further (Chapman \u0026amp; Thornes, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e). On the other hand, the study must focus on the impact of the road structure. Previous research indeed supports that the road material (asphalt, cobblestone, concrete, etc.) can influence the freezing process differently (Baumg\u0026auml;rtel et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Mkwata \u0026amp; Chong, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Therefore, we may need to address these features in more detail in future research.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe also know that the color of objects, the structure of cities, and the topography can all affect how we receive solar energy (Levinson \u0026amp; Akbari, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2002\u003c/span\u003e; Tehrani et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). These factors can also affect solar energy absorption and reflection, as well as the risk of icing. On the other hand, it should be considered that the changing angle of solar energy throughout the day can affect icing conditions (D. Li et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e; Z. Li et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). We can also observe variations in the risk of frost in the morning, noon, and evening hours as the sun's angle changes. Future studies need to address these issues in more detail.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eG\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane, with its continental climate conditions and its location along the valley, is subject to heavy snowfall in winter compared to the Eastern Black Sea coastal region due to the influence of geomorphological features, solar radiation, aspect, precipitation, and temperature parameters, leading to the formation of ice. The city, located between two mountains, has a topography that is not suitable for horizontal architectural development, while its sloped and rugged hillsides support vertical architectural growth. This situation reveals that the geographical features of G\u0026ouml;m\u0026uuml;şhane are a determining factor in urban planning and architecture.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study's findings indicate that various environmental factors contribute significantly to the occurrence of icing events in G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane. In aspect, parameters such as solar radiation, slope, precipitation, temperature, and elevation significantly contribute to the formation of ice surfaces during the winter months. Aspect and solar radiation play an important role in determining the differences between areas exposed to the sun and those that are not. We more commonly observe icing in areas with steep slopes. Horton et al., (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e) state that topographic features such as slope and elevation affect the distribution of surface frost crystals, and that larger crystals form in such areas. Our study also demonstrates the significant influence of factors like slope and elevation on the intensity of icing events. Kusaka and Kimura (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2004\u003c/span\u003e) conducted a study on the thermal effects of urban canyon structures, highlighting the role of large thermal capacity and small sky view factors in the formation of urban heat islands. This study states that urban canyons are defined as areas where direct sunlight cannot reach, wind flow is limited, and shaded spaces exist. Such areas cause temperatures to remain low and lead to more intense icing. Similarly, our study has revealed that there is more ice in areas defined as urban canyons. In these areas, the exposure to sunlight is low, and frost persists for a longer duration. Passageways prolong the melting time of ice, thereby posing a significant risk to pedestrian and vehicle traffic. In areas with particularly dense construction, the risk of icing increases. The study, while evaluating the effects of solar radiation on icing events, identified parallels with literature findings regarding the operation of this process, particularly in the urban canyon areas of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane. Dombrovsky (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e) emphasizes in his study that the snow cover hinders sunlight from penetrating the ice, thereby slowing down the melting process. This study also confirmed this observation. In the urban canyon areas of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane, the duration of freezing is longer in areas where sunlight does not reach, which leads to hazardous icy conditions during the winter months. Additionally, just as a thick layer of snow prevents sunlight from reaching the ice, the shaded surfaces of buildings in urban canyons create a similar effect. The icing on these surfaces melts later and lasts longer compared to areas exposed to sunlight. This situation suggests that freezing in urban canyons prolongs the melting process, posing a risk to pedestrians and vehicles. These findings are among the important points that should be considered in urban planning. In conclusion, this study reveals that environmental factors play a significant role in the formation and continuation of icing in various regions of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane. These findings are important data that should be considered for urban planning and ensuring safe pedestrian and vehicle traffic during the winter months. We should take measures, particularly in areas not exposed to sunlight, to effectively reduce the risk of icing.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt has been observed that the risk of icing is higher in the months of December and January in the city of G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane (SI-Fig.\u0026nbsp;7). It has been determined that areas with high vehicle density coincide with risky zones, and it has been observed that the presence of ice in these areas disrupts social life. Based on the results obtained, the recommendations for addressing the snow and ice formation in the work area are as follows:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026bull; In areas known as urban canyons, the use of solar panel underfloor heating techniques reduces the risk of overheating (Mirzanamadi et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026bull; When removing snow and ice, it's important to prioritize opening roads in neighborhoods and streets that are at risk (Shi \u0026amp; Fu, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026bull; The installation of speed-reducing strips and barriers in sloped areas (Persia et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e),\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026bull; Priority should be given to opening the roads within the boundaries of high-risk neighborhoods, which include schools, hospitals, elderly care facilities, and similar institutions (Shi, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026bull; Prioritize cleaning and salting of main roads, bridges, and hazardous areas (Shi, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026bull; Establishing regular snow removal and salting programs during snowfall in G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane (Koci\u0026aacute;nov\u0026aacute;, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e),\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegular maintenance and repair of snow removal equipment is crucial for ensuring the swift and efficient execution of snow clearing operations.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":" \u003ch2\u003eCompeting Interests\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.\u003c/p\u003e \u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eF.I. (Fatih Işık) contributed to the manuscript writing, literature review, all analysis, methodology, and map drawing.S.\u0026Ccedil;. (Savaş \u0026Ccedil;ağlak) contributed to methodology development and map drawing.S.E. (Selim Eraslan) contributed to the manuscript writing, map drawing, and analysis.H.İ.Z. (Halil İbrahim Zeybek) contributed to the manuscript writing and literature review.R.K. (Rabia Kanyılmaz) contributed to map drawing and analysis.All authors reviewed and approved the final manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAcknowledgement\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe would like to express our gratitude to T\u0026Uuml;BİTAK for supporting this research. Their contribution was invaluable in helping us carry out this study.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAtalay İ (2013) \u003cem\u003eUygulamalı Klimatoloji\u003c/em\u003e (2. Baskı). 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World Meteorological Organization (WMO). \u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://cloudatlas.wmo.int/en/glaze.html\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://cloudatlas.wmo.int/en/glaze.html\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Icing Risk, Urban Canyon, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), AHP","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5278549/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5278549/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study aims to assess the risks of ice and snowfall in G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane city center during the winter months. Icing poses serious risks to vehicular and pedestrian traffic in winter, and understanding and managing this situation is critical for urban safety. The study area covers various neighborhoods and streets within G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane's city limits in the Eastern Black Sea Region of T\u0026uuml;rkiye. The materials and methods used include Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, field studies, and analysis of meteorological data. We evaluated various parameters such as solar radiation, slope, precipitation, temperature, and elevation using GIS techniques. Field studies identified icing risks in shaded areas, sloping terrain, and congested streets, and recorded coordinate information for precise localization. The study determined that areas with narrow and high-rise buildings, known as \"urban canyons,\" have a particularly high risk of icing. We observed icing more frequently and intensely in these areas due to the inability of sunlight to reach them. The lack of sunlight exacerbated the frequency and intensity of icing in these regions. Additionally, the formation of hidden icing as a result of melting snow and ice in sloping areas was also an important finding. In conclusion, the winter risks identified in this study are critical for traffic safety in G\u0026uuml;m\u0026uuml;şhane city center during the winter months. These findings may be used by the municipality and related institutions to guide their winter season plans. This approach aims to ensure safe transportation in the city during the winter season.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Detection of the First Icing Roads in Winter: The Case of Gümüşhane City (Türkiye)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-10-23 16:04:44","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5278549/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"798620f0-0367-496c-acaa-8ed60d100468","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 23rd, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-06-12T14:54:03+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-10-23 16:04:44","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5278549","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5278549","identity":"rs-5278549","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}