Land matters for cost effective climate change mitigation

Land matters for cost effective climate change mitigation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Social Sciences - Article Land matters for cost effective climate change mitigation Leon Merfort, Alexander Popp, Nico Bauer, Florian Humpenoeder, and 8 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7407237/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We use the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) framework REMIND-MAgPIE to analyze the three-sided trade-off between mitigation in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, the energy and industry sector, as well as the climate objectives. We show that without AFOLU contributions to mitigation limiting peak warming to 1.6°C is out of reach, while policy costs for keeping warming below 1.7°C almost triple to 23 trillion US$ compared to a scenario with AFOLU sector mitigation. A portfolio of options alleviates energy sector decarbonization substantially, while putting the AFOLU sector under stress by increasing food expenditures and demanding strong agricultural intensification. Largest trade-offs between energy and AFOLU sector mitigation follow from stringent ecosystem protection/restoration and energy crop cultivation. Pricing of agricultural non-CO2 emissions provides smaller climate benefits and has the largest impacts on food prices, so it needs to be implemented with care. Finally, trade-offs between mitigation policies in the AFOLU and the energy sector and between climate targets require fine-balancing and judicious actions. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy economics Scientific community and society/Agriculture Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files MerfortEtAlLandMattersSIs1final.pdf Supplementary Information for Study "Land matters for cost effective climate change mitigation" Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7407237","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Social Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":506634987,"identity":"606d5006-bd7c-496c-95c9-67a42de519a5","order_by":0,"name":"Leon Merfort","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1704-6892","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. 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