Temporary Warming, Lasting Losses: Economic damages from climate overshoot may be irreversible within this century

Temporary Warming, Lasting Losses: Economic damages from climate overshoot may be irreversible within this century | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Temporary Warming, Lasting Losses: Economic damages from climate overshoot may be irreversible within this century Sarah Schoengart, Moritz Schwarz, Jonas Schwaab, Felix Pretis, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7241437/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Overshoot scenarios are frequently presented as flexible paths to climate goals, premised on the assumption that harms incurred during overshoot can be undone. Yet the conditions under which economic damages are actually reversible remain poorly understood. Here we explore the consequences of overshoot, systematically examining the physical and economic uncertainties that shape the extent and reversibility of economic damages. Taking these uncertainties into account, each additional 0.1°C of warming by 2030 locks in 1.7 to 12 percentage points of end-of-century global GDP losses under a current policies pathway, reflecting a robust relationship between near-term warming and long-term economic outcomes. In high-sensitivity cases with persistent growth damages, over 30% of countries face risks of absolute declines in GDP per capita within this century. We find that economic damages may be irreversible over the 21st century even under scenarios where global temperatures decline before 2100. A temporary overshoot of about 0.2°C may result in GDP losses about 14% to 31% higher than for a no overshoot case. With vulnerable countries being most affected, overshoot is projected to increase global inequality. Our findings underscore the economic risks of climate overshoot and the need for stringent near-term emission reductions to limit climate risks. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Overshoot Economic Damages Emulators Climate Change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7241437","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":495733013,"identity":"6bc417ca-efdf-439d-b41f-c115ab69d02e","order_by":0,"name":"Sarah Schoengart","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2030-9139","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sarah","middleName":"","lastName":"Schoengart","suffix":""},{"id":495733014,"identity":"e2923f53-9e5b-436a-a9d9-c447eb23f8b6","order_by":1,"name":"Moritz Schwarz","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"TU Berlin","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Moritz","middleName":"","lastName":"Schwarz","suffix":""},{"id":495733015,"identity":"216ca9ce-35f7-42dc-8886-ba290a2f8c9b","order_by":2,"name":"Jonas Schwaab","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Uni Hannover","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jonas","middleName":"","lastName":"Schwaab","suffix":""},{"id":495733016,"identity":"8b348a96-2ce8-46ee-ae5f-066e445958a2","order_by":3,"name":"Felix Pretis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Victoria","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Felix","middleName":"","lastName":"Pretis","suffix":""},{"id":495733017,"identity":"53c26fb7-1089-45e4-ad81-00759453cd0d","order_by":4,"name":"Peter Pfleiderer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1493-4598","institution":"Universität Leipzig","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Pfleiderer","suffix":""},{"id":495733018,"identity":"bd43a7a8-0ffa-456b-9be2-40e164a48ed0","order_by":5,"name":"Carl-Friedrich Schleussner","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8471-848X","institution":"IIASA","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carl-Friedrich","middleName":"","lastName":"Schleussner","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-29 09:22:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7241437/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7241437/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":89795302,"identity":"a6a569e1-23f7-4710-bf8c-398ba5a4bfbf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-25 06:59:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":6311136,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File - 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