Fingerprinting Climate Change: The unique pattern of regional landslide hazard under different triggering scenarios

Fingerprinting Climate Change: The unique pattern of regional landslide hazard under different triggering scenarios | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Fingerprinting Climate Change: The unique pattern of regional landslide hazard under different triggering scenarios Richard Guthrie, Graham Knibbs, Thad Wasklewicz, Sanaz Imen, Andrée Blais-Stevens This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3635882/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In a warming climate, weather driven mountain hazards, and rainfall-triggered landslides in particular, represent one of the greatest growing threats to co-located populations, infras- tructure, and communities 1–3 . Coupled with a simultaneous increase in the number of people and infrastructure exposed to those same hazards 4 , the global risk associated with landslides compounds at an alarming rate 5 . The precise quantification of event-triggered hazards, how- ever, remain elusive and thresholds for landslide-triggering rainfall, while widely used, are subject to a host of technical challenges. Here we demonstrate that mountain regions have a specific and discernible topographic- climatological hazard fingerprint , a unique pattern of hazard quantified over the same region. We show how to derive that fingerprint at an example site in British Columbia, Canada, and demonstrate how it changes with global warming under different shared socioeconomic pathways or different storm-return periods. A quantified landscape-wide fingerprint of hazard, agnostic of initial landslide location, for (1) a background condition (25-year rainfall event), (2) a rarer storm (200-year rainfall event), and the same events under climate change scenarios is advanced. The fingerprint associated with climate change shows precisely where hazard will interact with infrastruc- ture and communities, and provides quantitative data to inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. Our methods are easily repeatable and portable to other regions and jurisdictions. We antic- ipate that any community faced with mountain hazards and the uncertain impact of climate change will benefit from quantifying both the existing fingerprint of hazard and calculating the fingerprint under future conditions. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryDataTables.xlsx RCSA output tables Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3635882","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":258593730,"identity":"95d0a176-fa4e-4c1c-8172-3802ce88b9e9","order_by":0,"name":"Richard 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Coupled with a simultaneous increase in the number of people and infrastructure exposed to those same hazards \u003csup\u003e4\u003c/sup\u003e, the global risk associated with landslides compounds at an alarming rate \u003csup\u003e5\u003c/sup\u003e. The precise quantification of event-triggered hazards, how- ever, remain elusive and thresholds for landslide-triggering rainfall, while widely used, are subject to a host of technical challenges.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere we demonstrate that mountain regions have a specific and discernible topographic- climatological hazard \u003cem\u003efingerprint\u003c/em\u003e, a unique pattern of hazard quantified over the same region. We show how to derive that fingerprint at an example site in British Columbia, Canada, and demonstrate how it changes with global warming under different shared socioeconomic pathways or different storm-return periods.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA quantified landscape-wide fingerprint of hazard, agnostic of initial landslide location, for (1) a background condition (25-year rainfall event), (2) a rarer storm (200-year rainfall event), and the same events under climate change scenarios is advanced. The fingerprint associated with climate change shows precisely where hazard will interact with infrastruc- ture and communities, and provides quantitative data to inform mitigation and adaptation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur methods are easily repeatable and portable to other regions and jurisdictions. 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