Studying Sustainability of Settlements in Mountainous Shirvan

Studying Sustainability of Settlements in Mountainous Shirvan | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Studying Sustainability of Settlements in Mountainous Shirvan Rovshan Karimov, Natavan Jafarova, Rovshan Abbasov This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6776935/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The economic region of Mountainous Shirvan situated in the eastern part of Azerbaijan with its weak industrial output and low urbanization rate is known to be one of the most lagging parts of the country’s territory. For decades the region experienced continuous out-migration, mostly from rural settlements toward Greater Baku area. With highlighting this overall underdevelopment and related vulnerability, the presented research comparatively explores how out-migrations induced by environmental, climate-induced and socioeconomic problems had an impact on sustainable demographic development of settlements in Mountainous Shirvan in the last few decades. Moreover, this research explores the current geographical distribution features of settlements by the region’s four rural districts – Shamakhy, Agsu, Ismayilli, and Gobustan. Upon the comparative analysis of the data of population censuses we found that over fifty settlements have experienced depopulation in Mountainous Shirvan in 2009–2019 years, a process of concern in demographic sustainability terms. The analysis of recent demographic trends and the current situation shows that over fifty settlements with smaller or extremely smaller population size found in the studied region are in danger of disappearing in the near future. To study the characteristics of the distribution of settlements in the territory, influenced by various geographical and environmental factors and economic activities that are very crucial in sustainability perspective, the aerospace images were addressed. Based on this, GIS mapping of the studied territory in ArcMap 10.8 program was conducted through using overlay tools and geostatistical analysis. This included the interpolation analysis of the relief, the development of the land use map, the digital elevation and the LS-models for the studied region. The mapping allowed identify twenty-three rural agglomerations in the territory of Mountainous Shirvan. settlement sustainability demographic rural agglomeration out-migration Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Introduction Mountainous regions in most part of the world are characterized by low or relatively low density of big settlements and population compared to low plains. This is mostly due to intensified migrations from mountainous regions that have taken place in recent decades (Kollmair, Banerjee 2012). Mountain regions, their nature and population in a broad sense are vulnerable toward economic, policy-related, ecological and other external impacts. Driven by combined impact of climate change, environmental, economic and social factors, people living on high terrain now are very concerned over their further level of living and welfare, and therefore they are in search of better living conditions much actively than in the previous decades (FAO 2015). Demographic situation in mountain systems are being highly influenced by ongoing climate change and disasters (Thornton et al. 2022). More people today prefer lower altitudes to dwell, and urbanisation in mountain regions is lower than in lowlands (Ehrlich et al. 2021). Various rural regions throughout the world are in need of support such as development programs able to ensure sustainable growth, achieve progress in living and discourage outmigration (Grau, Aide 2007). From this view, to provide scientific prerequisite for possible supportive measurement, nowadays, studying trends in demographic processes and resettlement is of high importance to rural regions (Jiménez et al. 2023). Remote rural settlements found in mountain regions are the most vulnerable locations in terms of sustainable development, and resettlements originating in these regions may considerably influence the demographic processes and cultural changes in the future (Corrado 2014). Improving of network of necessary infrastructure facilities is very crucial in the demographic development of mountain settlements because it contributes to curbing of migrations from highlands. Natural resources of mountain regions are better managed and crate real incomes for local communities when government support towards the development of transportation, agriculture or tourism of these regions is ensured (Stadelbauer 1991), and the increased economic activities in mountain areas facilitate the demographic development of settlements and distribution of rural population more effectively. However, in some cases, such environmental factors as land erosion and reducing soil fertility along with long droughts and water scarcity contribute to out-migrations from mountain areas, thus wasting the supportive efforts and relegating the importance of economic factors to the background (Budagov et al. 2006, Abbasov et al. 2022b). This concerns the mountain regions of Azerbaijan as well. Droughts that happened in this country in 2014, 2016 and 2020 years can be shown as examples. These disasters challenged the living of rural communities in same years by causing the reduction of crops (Abbasov et al. 2022a). Soil erosion is manifested itself in mountainous areas of Azerbaijan causing farmers’ interests in farming to decrease (Aliyev 2018). In Greater Caucasus part of Azerbaijan, where many areas are landslide-prone and debris-prone (Pashayev et al. 2010), and where increasing physical vulnerability associated with inappropriately planned areas is emphasized as a big risk to local communities (Abbasov 2018), population has left their places of residence over years causing to disappearance of some settlements. Most mountainous regions nowadays lag behind plains for the level of development because highlands are no longer so attractive for many people in socioeconomic terms. The new generation segment of migrating population has an opportunity to use their skills in the new areas of arrivals, e.g. in big cities, whereas these skills were not effective and working in the areas they came from (Bachmann et al. 2019). In Azerbaijan, the areas with higher terrain encountered more demographic decline than the country's other parts. The population is distributed too unevenly in the country’s territory as its major part (62.3%) lives in lowland areas below 500 m of altitude (Pashayev et al. 2010), since mountain areas have lost considerable part of their residents as a result of internal displacements in the direction of areas situated lower (Karimov, 2011). For long, the migration of the population from the country’s various mountainous regions (such as Sheki-Zagatala, Mountainous Shirvan, Guba–Khachmaz etc.) to the urban area of Greater Baku hindered the demographic growth and weakened the demographic capacity of the rural regions (Afandiyev et al. 2014). The adverse impact of economic factors as the main drivers of unfavourable out-migration is strengthened more due to numerous disasters, environmental problems and climate driven concerns among rural communities (Abbasov et al. 2022b). Interests in traditional farming activities such as viticulture (e.g. in Ismayilli) have been decreased due to environmental factors (Gahramanov 2023), and the income-generating role of these activities has been reduced. Grasslands, hay meadows and other biodiversity resources are largely managed by the mountain rural population of the Greater Caucasus but this is not managed in efficient ways (Etzold et al. 2015). Significant portion of the young generation now is eager to engage jobs in services rather than in livestock and plant-growing. Eventually, available income-generating opportunities in agriculture and non-agricultural sectors influence the decision-making on migration among rural communities (Bagirov et al. 2022). The young are interested in being in urban environment, achieving higher standards of living and enjoying leisure time. The mentioned above causes to the occurrence of "rural to urban" resettlements (Karimov 2011). In Azerbaijan, hundreds of rural settlements have experienced depopulation since the end of twentieth century, in particular in mountainous areas. Cities functioning as administrative centers in rural regions are not so attractive for those who are in search of skilled jobs and services to enjoy, and demographically and economically these cities are too behind the capital Baku (Eminov 2005, Karimov 2020). The long migrations from villages to cities entailed depopulation and unsustainable demographic growth in some part of settlements of the country (Abbasov et al. 2022b). Mountainous Shirvan, a study area of this research, is one of those regions of Azerbaijan where demographic sustainability of settlements is of high concern. The aim of this paper is to determine the distinguishing features of geographical distribution of population, and assess the demographic sustainability of rural areas and settlements of Mountainous Shirvan through mapping and revealing the changes going in their population number. Study area The economic region of Mountainous Shirvan is located in the southern and southeastern parts of the Greater Caucasus part of Azerbaijan. It occupies the southern and southeastern parts of Greater Caucasus Mountains in the north, and partly covers the Kur-Aras lowland in the south (Fig. 1). Most of its territory is composed of high terrain, steep slopes of ridges, widely stretching outskirts of mountains and large river valleys (Budagov, Mikayilov 1996). The altitude in the region varies between 26 m below and 4466 m above sea level. The region’s territory is rich in biological diversity and valuable black, brown and chestnut soils (Babaev et al. 2006, Peper et al. 2010,). Mountainous Shirvan has an area of 6.13 thousand sq. km., or 7.1% of the territory area of Azerbaijan. The population of Mountainous Shirvan is 317.8 thousand persons, or 3.1% of the country’s population (PoA 2023). About two-third part of its population are rural dwellers. The region includes Ismayilli, Shamakhi, Agsu, and Gobustan rural districts. Mountainous Shirvan is geographically the closest region to most developed and populous area of Azerbaijan – the Baku–Sumgait urban area. This geographical proximity indeed is both an advantage and a curbing agent in the development Mountainous Shirvan, with considering the very high gravitational power of the highly industrialized Baku–Sumgait in terms of involvement of labor force from outside. Studying the distribution of population and the resettlement processes going in Mountainous Shirvan is very topical for Azerbaijan, since demographically it is less competitive than the country’s other regions. Weakness of the region demographically as well as in urbanization context is mostly related to underdevelopment of the region in economic terms. Mountainous Shirvan is included in the category of “Azerbaijan’s weakly developed regions” (Suleymanov et al. 2021). The weak development of both industrial and agrarian sectors has curbed the demographic development of settlements in the region. Despite its very long history of settlement, Mountainous Shirvan is in the last places for the population number among the country’s economic regions (PoA 2023). Methods To assess the demographic situation and tendencies in population growth of Mountainous Shirvan from 1999 to 2019 years, first we reviewed relevant scientific literature where the natural and geographical conditions, including the terrain factor playing an important role in sustainability of settlements, are analyzed. Beside with this, based on available literature materials and also our fieldwork data, we assessed the influencing role of geographical conditions and factors in distribution of population. Then analysis of the statistical data on population number of rural settlements was carried out separately by all the four administrative districts of the studied region – Shamakhi, Ismayilli, Agsu, and Gobustan. We compared data of the three last censuses (1999, 2009 and 2019 years) on the region’s rural settlements to define where either increase in population number or depopulation has taken place (CDPAR 1999, 2009, 2019). Furthermore, the territory of Mountainous Shirvan was studied by us in the GIS environment. Using of geospatial information and developing of a digital terrain model is an effective tool that will make possible to interconnect various processes and factors (erosion, landslides, distribution of population, land use etc.) going and prevailing in a same area (Jafarova, Ismatova 2021). Maps developed by us in ArcGIS 10.8 make the terrain properties and the geographical distribution of the population of Mountainous Shirvan clearly visible. Since the territory of Mountainous Shirvan is highly fragmented by river- and intermountain valleys as well as is landslide-and erosion-prone, which significantly influenced the distribution of population and the development of settlements, one of our tasks was the creation of the model of slope length and steepness factor (LS-factor) with using digital elevation model (DEM) developed through the Copernicus program and widely applied in regional assessments (Pawanjeet et al. 2010, Mashimbye et al. 2014, Panagos et al. 2015). It must enable us to define the relationship of the altitude factor and the size of settlements and their density. Studies in this direction were carried out through compiling and analyzing of maps created in ArcGIS. To examine the role of altitude factor in population distribution and resettlement, we created a terrain model in the ArcGIS 10,8 program in line with the steps below: 1. Addressing DEM model. 2. Heights were revealed by using the Extract Point tool. 3. The obtained heights were used in the IDW tool. 4. Shapefile of settlements was integrated to the map. The sequence of relevant operations as shown in Fig. 2 was followed to draw integrated maps of terrain model and distribution of settlements for the territory of Mountainous Shirvan. A landslide model was created by us, for which the DEM model served as the primary data. This action was carried out in the SAGA GIS program (Fig. 3 and 4) known as effective in terrain analysis (Conrad et al. 2015). The Land-Slide Factor model (Fig. 5) obtained due to processing of the DEM model (Fig. 4) characterizes the impact of slope length on soil degradation (water erosion) in the direction of the watershed of the mountain ridges. The map created in ArcGIS 10.8 (Fig. 6), showing what type of land use is common in the studied region, serves as a source of information about the impact of settlements on the nature. This map was created based on the statistical and aerospace data. Through comparing the maps of land use (Fig. 6) and the LS-Factor model (Fig. 5), the patterns of soil degradation and the geography of agricultural activities available in the territory can be defined, as it is shown on the example of Ayrichay part of Ismayilli (Fig. 7). To demonstrate the distribution of settlements present in the studied region, a settlement map was compiled, which made it possible to compare the density of existing settlements (rural areas) within the boundaries of the regions of Ismayilli, Agsu, Shamakhi and Gobustan (Fig. 8). Thus, the compiled maps enabled us to demonstrate the geographical coverage of landslide-prone areas, the relationship of vulnerability to landslide hazards and the presence of a certain type of land use, as well as the distribution of rural areas (agglomerations), where the concentration of the rural population is higher. Data analysis In terms of territory, Mountainous Shirvan can be referred as “a region with very high capacity” (Ayyubov 2000). In this region, natural conditions are different, and natural resources, suitable (fertile land resources, fresh water resources, etc.) for economic activities are distributed unevenly (Tanriverdiyev, Safarov 1999). Fragmentation of the relief as well as the presence of inclined hills and descents and ascents may challenge the settlement process in some parts of the region (Budagov, Mikayilov 1996). From west to east in most part of the region, the altitude of relief increases. The foothills and low Mountainous areas of Shamakhi and Ismayilli districts are more populous, and the number of rural settlements in such areas is higher than others. Presence of abundant fodder of high livestock importance in highlands enables rural communities to perform seasonal migrations between summer and winter pastures (Abbasov et al. 2022c). Historically, extreme natural events and devastating disasters have been observed in the region of Mountainous Shirvan. In the surroundings of Shamakhi, drought is considered as the main weather-related disaster observed mostly in summer which adversely influences the livelihood of communities (Ahouissoussi et al. 2014). Warmer climate made necessary the shifting to the cultivation of aridity-tolerant crops in lower plains (Aliyev 2018). High winds that took place in December 1996, April 2005, and February 2006, floods of July 2008 and April 2010, drought observed in July of 2010, and hails of April 1997, May 2001, and May 2002 are among numerous disasters that have hit Shamakhi in the last thirty years (Ahouissoussi et al. 2014). Arid climatic conditions, scarcity of water resources, lack of irrigation canals, limited access to irrigation conditions, and low soil fertility are affecting the distribution of population in Gobustan and in part in Shamakhi district (Aliyev 2018, Abbasov et al. 2022b). Upper parts of the mountains with more than 2000 m of altitude have cold climate and are relatively unsuitable for dwelling of population (Budagov, Mikayilov 1996). Relatively flat plains and foothill areas are widely spread in the region. The medium and high mountainous areas and high valleys altitude of which reaches up 1200-1300 m (Lahij, Mudri, Chukhuryurd etc.) are useful for settlement and farming (Tanriverdiyev, Safarov 1999). In the study area, natural resources such as various verbs and plants bearing high treatment properties are intensively used by the local dwellers. Potatoes and vegetables harvested, berries and nuts collected in mountainous forests, and goats and sheep fed on the grazing fields of the commons contribute to self-sufficient livelihoods (Rzayeva 2014). Eventually, in some areas, natural landscapes like forests, shrubberies, and rare forests remained in the areas of grazing, are “intervened” by cultural landscapes. Long anthropogenic influence, caused by the activity of shepherds using the area, is evident in many places. Much obvious and intensive transformations associated with deforestation typically originates at the eve of colder season when chaotic tree-cutting is conducted driven by lack of gas supply. Also, intensive farming activities caused to diminishing of soil productivity over years. It stressed vegetations in particular in the territory of Ismayilli district, as a result of which, significant parts of bare lands and croplands lost their vegetation (Bayramov et al. 2019). In Mountainous Shirvan the seismicity is high (Ayyubova 2006). Seismicity has increased over the past 15 years in this region. For example, In October 2012, relatively strong earthquake with a magnitude of 5.3 took place here (Yetirmishli 2021), thus creating a risk for certain settlements. Some villages existing in Shamakhi, Ismayilli, Agsu and Gobustan districts are regularly affected and devastated by earthquakes and eventual heavy landslides: the occurrence of earthquakes may lead to origination of landslide hubs in some places over certain time. Landslides in Mountainous Shirvan are driven by both natural (earthquakes) and man-made (construction of facilities) factors (Pashayev, Karimov 2012). The digital elevation modeling carried by us with using previous databases as well as those we obtained during our fieldworks in 2021-2023 years, make it possible to identify the landslide-prone areas (Fig. 5). The fact that Mountainous Shirvan is very landslide-prone region is evident. Because of the climate change and droughts, cultivation opportunities become limited and difficult. Soil degradation, and ongoing landslides are obvious in many places as well which makes living challenging. Some springs are dried in the region and this was confirmed by local communities when we met them during our fieldworks in 2023. Unfortunately, environmental and climate induced factors continue to push some part of local communities to leave from their living areas, and thus, demographic development of rural areas is challenged. Analysis showed that 40 settlements (19,400 inhabitants) in Ismayilli, 15 settlements (15,500 inhabitants) in Shamakhi, 11 settlements (3,800 inhabitants) in Agsu, and 3 settlements in Gobustan (4,800 inhabitants) exist under the risk of landslides. The most concerned situation is observed in Ismayilli and Shamakhi districts (Fig. 4). For example, in the late 80es, a landslide in the village of Varna destroyed all the houses, forcing the population to move to other parts of the district of Ismayilli, and the village completely disappeared. In May of 2002, a heavy landslide occurred in the village of Jabani, resulting in huge damages and temporary migration of population. Or, all the residents of Garcha, another settlement in Ismayilli, have left their houses under the impact of landslide, permanently settling in Lahij. Mughanli village of Shamakhi district was heavily devastated by the landslide in 2010, and the village was completely relocated, and its residents became dwellers of a new settlements built for them in another area (Pashayev, Karimov 2012). Landslides, induced by earthquakes, very frequent too, devastating also Madrasa and Meysari villages of Shamakhi district and leaving the dwellers in difficult living conditions (Fig. 6). The areas alongside the rivers of Agsu, Pirsaat and Gozluchay, as well as the transport and infrastructure facilities have been devastated over and over by heavy landslides and long-term influence of active erosional processes (Budagov et al. 2006). There were many other cases fixed in Mountainous Shirvan, where rural settlements fully or in part disappeared due to devastating landslides. Similar migrations still continue to occur in some rural settlements. It should be noted that the demographic development of the region of Mountainous Shirvan used to lag behind since the Soviet era, and the out-migration were adversely influencing on the population growth (Mehraliyev 1984). The study area has been lagging both economically and demographically from other regions of Azerbaijan. This was related to sociodemographic conditions existing in this region and underestimation of natural increase and distribution of urban and rural population when planning the social and economic development in Mountainous Shirvan. Weak socioeconomic base and the related human migration were the main hindering factors in the demographic development of Mountainous Shirvan for decades. Smaller highland villages were declared “ineffective” and combined in accordance with the state policy of resettling lowland areas (Mehraliyev et al. 1988). Consequently, many villages located in medium and high mountains areas have been disappeared in the region. Most of the abandoned villages actually once situated in attractive landscapes of high ecotourism opportunities (Abbasov et al. 2022b), whereas this potential was not used during the Soviet period. Meanwhile, like in other Soviet republics, the transformation of the system of rural settlement was necessary to meet requirements of the new conditions (Geokchayskiy 1988). However, instead, the hard social and economic difficulties following the breakdown of the USSR challenged the demographic development of Mountainous Shirvan more. The economic region had been characterized also by a low level of urbanization, and the formation of cities was challenged against the background of increasing migration flows to the Absheron region (Afandiyev, Damirgayayev 1995). Economic problems forced the population of Mountainous Shirvan to migrate to Baku city and its suburb settlements more intensively during the first years of Azerbaijan’s independence. Because of the same reason the formation of not only villages but also of urban-type settlements and cities lagged in Mountainous Shirvan. This situation is still present, and therefore, the number and population number of settlements are lower in the region (Eminov 2005). There are significant differences in population number in Mountainous Shirvan. The villages in this region are of different sizes. Thus, depending on the relief properties, they are concentrated in small areas forming groups of rural settlements, whereas in other places the settlements are evidently scattered and located far from each other (e.g. in Gobustan district). There are 272 villages in the region of Mountainous Shirvan. 67.6% of all villages are in the territory of Shamakhi (38.6%) and Agsu (29.0%) districts. Shamakhi with 105.1 thousand residents is the largest district, combining 33% of the region’s total population, while Ismayilli is the second and Agsu is the third (Table 1). The district of Agsu has the highest population density. According to the official statistics, 65.8% of the population of Mountainous Shirvan is composed of rural population, and only 34.2% are urban residents (DIA 2023). Results We achieved two main results gained in this research. The first main result of our research is about the changes going in the number of settlements. The analysis of these changes allowed us to assess demographic sustainability of Mountainous Shirvan by distinguishing each four districts of this region respectively. Through comparing the census data for various years we found that decline in population number is a very typical feature of the region. Table 1. The main demographic data of the Mountainous Shirvan region Territory of a district or an economic region Territory area, thousand sq.km Number of cities Number of urban settlements Number of villages Population number, thous. person 01.01.2023) Population density, thous. pers./sq.km Urban population (thousand person) Rural population (thous. person) Shamakhi 1.67 1 5 57 104.8 63 55.7 49.1 Ismayilli 2.07 1 2 105 86.6 42 29.5 57.1 Agsu 1.02 1 0 79 80.0 80 22.1 57.9 Gobustan 1.37 1 1 31 46.4 34 10.1 36.3 Region of Mountainous Shirvan (total) 6.13 4 8 272 326.8 52 111.8 215.0 The table is compiled based on: DIA 2023. In Shamakhy, as we found, 8 villages (Talishnuru, Ikinji Jabani, Birinji Chaghan, Jabani, Yenikand, Shirvan, Pirbayli, Gizmeydan) experienced depopulation in 1999–2019. The village of Ajidere, which had 8 residents only in 1999, disappeared completely by 2019. Demographic development in Jabani, Shirvan, Damirchi, Zarat-Kheybari, Galaderesi, Yusif Mammadaliyev, Birinji Chaghan, Gizmeydan, Pirbayli, and Yenikand, where decline happened in 2009–2019, is not sustainable as well. In Agsu, 12 rural settlements out of 79 ones, experienced depopulation in 1999–2019, and the village of Girda disappeared. These are Novju, Arabsarvan, Namirli, Shahbayli, Hajuushaghi, Nuran, Dadali, Zargava, Kandukhan, Gasimbayli, Rahimaghali, Khasidere. Considering cnhages in data by 2009 and 2019 years, we suggest that there is a high risk of disappearance in 4 villages in the next future: Kandakhan, Yenikand, Hingar, and Khasidere. In Ismayilli , 32 settlements out of 105 ones, that is nearly a third part of all, were reduced in population number in 1999–2019. These settlements are Ivanovka, Burovdal, Keshkhurt, Girk, Nanij, Guyum, Keyvandi, Mulukh, Goydan, Zarat, Ustalgishlag, Shabiyan, Kelbend, Shukurchu, Yenikend, Goshakend, Tubukend, Genze, Mudri, Kalfaraj, Mudrise, Zergeran, Yukhari Julyan, Sulut, Haftasov, Charmadil, Pirabulgasim, Goshakand, Khimran, Vasha, and Piraganim, as well as the urban settlement of Lahij (where insignificant reduction at 5 persons was fixed). Beside with all the villages mentioned above, there are other two dozens of villages where depopulation declined in 2009–2019 years: Baghali, Duvaryan, Zarnava, Sardahar, Mushkamir, Kulullu, Galagah, Galajig, Minga, Bilistan, Balik, Enishdibi, Dahar, Gichatan, Taghlabiyan, Muju, Shirvanmesha, Kurduvan, Ayyubbayli, Khalilli, Basgal, and Elabad. In Gobustan , the rural settlements of Dagh Kolani, Shikhlar, Damlamaja, and Chay Gurbanchi disappeared. In 1999-2009, 9 villages (Nardaran, Gurbanchi, Mudrisa, Julyan, Sulut, Kalfaraj, Guchatan, Sersure, and Jeyrankechmaz) experienced depopulation in Gobustan. In 2009-2019 years population declined in the villages of Jeyrankechmez, Uzumchu, Garajuzlu, and Nabur only. The village of Jeyrankechmez as well as some rural settlements such as Ilanli and Nardaran are vulnerable in demographic terms and may disappear even despite their relatively bigger size. According to the census data of 2019, where the numbers of both permanent and temporarily absent population are shown, 11712 people de-facto live in another region but not in Mountainous Shirvan. The second main result of our research is about the distribution features of population in the territory of Mountainous Shirvan. Thus, by compiling the maps noted above (Fig. 3 and 7), we acknowledged visually how the population is distributed in the region. Eventually, based on the compiled maps, we identified and distinguished the rural agglomerations here. There is a considerable difference in the distribution of villages in the district of Shamakhi . Some of them are closer to the administrative city-center. To the south, as well as in the areas over 1500 m, the density of rural settlements is lower than in foothills. We identified 6 small rural agglomerations (group of villages) in Shamakhi. The villages of the first group are located south of the district center – mainly on the right bank of Pirsaat River. This agglomeration includes Kalakhana, Kerkanej, Adnaly, Sabirli, Charhan, Nuydu, Dagh Bagirli, Yenikand, Goylar Dag, Lalazar, Birinci Chayli, Gushchu, etc. Another rural agglomeration covers the direction of Langabiz Ridge with the highest demographic potential in the district of Shamakhi. There are Baghirli (2.5 thousand inhabitants), Ovchulu and other relatively smaller villages here; all are located in relatively flat areas. The third important rural agglomeration, if it can be referred so, includes the villages around the highway Shamakhi–Ismayilli. It encompasses the northwestern end of the Langabiz range where Garavalli, Maljak, Gurdtepe, Shirvan, Sagian, Sharadil, Mirikend, Mughanli, and Boyuk Khirisli villages are found. These villages are too dispersed and do not form a complete agglomeration but form a long linear area consisting of settlements with relatively better access to major highways and infrastructure. The fourth rural agglomeration of Shamakhi is a group of villages situated east and northeast to the district center. Being geographically closer to the city of Shamakhi, these villages are Jabani, Ikinji Jabani, Hamyali, and Gonagkand. This low and medium mountainous territory where population settled is landslide-sensitive. The fifth rural agglomeration is a group of villages located to the north-west of the city of Shamakhi. This medium mountainous territory is settled by the residents of Dedagunash, Birinji Jagan, Ikinji Jagan, Kechmeddin, Galeybugurd, Galadaresi, Sis and other villages located compactly. Angakharan, Chukhuryurd, Nagharakhana and other villages are found in the direction from Shamakhi to Yusif Mammadaliyev settlement. They form the sixth, very scarce in demographic terms, rural agglomeration. A comparative analysis shows that rural settlements that are located at higher altitudes and specialize in agricultural production (grain-growing, viticulture, and fruit-growing), either already have experienced depopulation, or may experience this process in the upcoming years and decades (Fig. 5 and 7; CDPAR, 1999–2019). In the district of Agsu, unlike Shamakhi, Ismayilli and Gobustan, the territory is composed mainly of plains, where relatively high density of villages is common. The northern part of this district is occupied by dry pastures and in part by mountain slopes. The relief of Agsu is very favorable for settlement, as concluded in our analysis (Fig. 3, 4 and 7). Waters of Girdimanchay, Agsuchay and their tributaries, Aghdarchay, Nazirchay and other rivers are widely used in farming. Lands are very suitable for planting. The Shirvan plain covering the southern part of Agsu district, is a territory of intensive irrigation. Villages have long been specialized in cattle- and sheep breeding, grain growing, viticulture, cotton growing, fruit and vegetable growing. Rural settlements are involved in both livestock and cultivation of cereals, orchards, sunflower, pomegranate, grape etc. (Fig. 5). Since irrigational and intensively-developed agricultural sector is prevalent in Agsu, the district has a relatively high density of villages despite its relatively smaller area. To the north of the Garamaryam Ridge, there are a lot of villages specializing in different crop production due to irrigation opportunities. Beside with this, numerous small and medium villages are found to the north of Agsu city, along Agsu River. Rural settlements are present also in the south, towards the Hajigabul district. In general, 16 villages are found in the mountain zone. We identified 9 small rural agglomerations in Agsu: Bozavand–Agharkh, Gagali–Arabushagi–Chaparli, Bijo–Langabiz, Garagoyunlu–Novju–Arabsarvan, Padar–Pirhasanli, Kandoba–Abbaskhanly, Gurjuvan, Nuyudlu–Girlar, and Kalva (Fig. 6). Most of these rural areas involve smaller villages only. In the district of Ismayilli , the relief and biodiversity conditions are complex. Considerable part of the territory of Ismayilli is landslide-prone, as identified in our maps (Fig. 4 and 5). The areas of settlements of Lahij, Mudri, Varna, Himran, Ahan, Zargaran, Tirjan etc. are regularly subjected to the impact of destructive natural processes. Prevalence of fertile dark brown, chestnut-colored and black soils allows develop different plant species, including organic crops. Areas of grain-growing, leguminous cultivation, technical crops, fruit-growing, and livestock are of high importance in terms of sustainable development of rural areas. Recreational potential of villages of Ismayilli is higher. Due to largeness of the area and the relief features, the villages in Ismayilli are geographically highly scattered (Fig. 3 and 7). According to our research, rural settlements (agglomerations) in the territory of Ismayilli district can be grouped as follows: 1. Villages located to the right of Shamakhi-Agsu-Ismayilli highway, either in the vicinity or relatively far to this main transport road of transition importance. 2. Highland villages located higher than the Lahij area, those scattered towards the Burovdal village. 3. High mountain villages found on the right bank of upper parts of Girdimanchay River. 4. Mountain villages found to northwest of Ismayilli city. 5. Villages located on the plateau of Gash, the western part of the district. 6. Villages spread to the southwest and south from Ismayilli city. 7. Villages located to the east from the Ismayilli-Kurdmashi highway. 8. Villages located to southeast of Ismayilli city, the foothills of the Langabiz mountain ridge and adjacent areas. Devastating landslides are one of the reasons for the weakening of demographic potential of villages in Ismayilli. Most landslide-sensitive settlements are Diyalli, Guyum, Tirjan, Vasha, Bizlan, Mudrisa, Dvoryan, Lahij, Khankendi, Basgal, Sulut, Gushanja, Khanagah, Yeniyol, Ikinji Yeniyol, Hajihatamli, Kalazeyva, and Garagaya, where, respectively, the risk of environmental migration is relatively higher as well. Moreover, the relief conditions may limit the expansion of most of these rural settlements spatially (Fig. 4, 5, and 6). In Gobustan district , rural areas are situated too far from each other. The main economic activities among the rural population are sheep breeding, cattle breeding, drought-tolerant planting and in part bee-keeping. These activities serve as a ground for development of settlements (Fig. 5). Since villages are distributed scarcely, and are almost segregated, it is impossible to distinguish any rural agglomeration in Gobustan (Fig. 7). Conclusion The situation in the region of Mountainous Shirvan is not advantageous in terms of demographic sustainability: tens of rural settlements recently have suffered from out-migration and depopulation. The risk of disappearance of settlements is widely present in concrete parts of the region. Ling out-migrations had a footprint on the demographic development of both cities and rural settlements. Upon exploring the distribution of settlements in the territory of Mountainous Shirvan region, we found out that totally 55 settlements have already experienced depopulation. About 8–10 villages have been disappeared or almost disappeared, given the condition that the number of their inhabitants is very low. As our study showed, around 30 villages in the region are under the high risk of disappearance, while, a few tens of others are also associated with the presence of such risk at relatively lesser degree. We also conclude that the process of formation of rural agglomerations is weak in the region of Mountainous Shirvan. This concerns particularly Ismayilli and Shamakhi districts, while in Gobustan district the villages are too isolated at high extent and unfavorable to form rural agglomerations at all. Most of rural settlements present in mountainous parts of the region lags behind the foothill villages for demographic development. Though rural settlements have formed 6 rural agglomerations in Shamakhi, 9 rural agglomerations in Agsu and 8 rural agglomerations in Ismayilli, most of rural settlements present in these districts are smaller in size, and are vulnerable in terms of sustainability. The presence of villages of the disappearance risk is typical mostly for Ismayilli, and at lesser extent for Shamakhi and Gobustan districts. Meanwhile, the demographic situation is not acknowledged by us as ‘very critical’. Since Mountainous Shirvan owns large territorial and resource capacity, favorable for settlement and development, using of its natural, human and economic potential in efficient and sustainably-managed way may ensure sustainable demographic development in the near and mid-term perspective. Declarations Funding This paper was written within the Horizon-2020 Project “Interconnecting Histories and Archives for Migrant Agency: Entangled Narratives across Europe and the Mediterranean Region” (ITHACA) funded by European Commission. 2021-2025. https://ithacahorizon.eu Author’s contribution Conceptualization: RK; Meth­odology: RK and NJ; Formal analysis: RK, NJ and RA; Writing-review and editing: RK and RA; Funding acquisition: RK; Supervision: RK; Writing original draft: RK, NJ and RA; Software: NJ; Data cura­tion: NJ : Investigation: RK and RA; Editing: RA.|All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. The authors declare no conflict of interest in this study. Acknowledgments The authors thank the reviewers for their in­sightful comments on the original version of the article. Copyright Submission of a paper is taken to imply that it has not been published elsewhere and has not been submitted for publication elsewhere. Authors are responsible for obtaining permission to reproduce any material for which they may not own copyright. References Abbasov R. Kh., 2018. Community-based disaster risk management in Azerbaijan. Springer, Cham. DOI.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69653-9. Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., 2022a. Ecosystem and socioeconomic value of clean water. In: Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., Ecosystem services in Azerbaijan: values and losses: 71-121. Springer, Cham. DOI.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08770-7_3. Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., 2022b. Environmental migration and cultural losses. In: Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R. Ecosystem services in Azerbaijan: values and losses:123-179. Springer, Cham. DOI.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08770-7_4. Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., 2022c. Mountain ecosystem values. In: Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., Ecosystem services in Azerbaijan: values and losses: 29-69. Springer, Cham. DOI.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08770-7_2. Afandiyev V. A., Damirgayayev Sh. G., 1995. Geographical issues of development of cities in the Azerbaijan Republic . Nijat, Baku. Afandiyev V. A., Eminov Z. N., Nagiyev S. G., 2014. Economic and geographic factors affecting the development of Greater Baku. Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis 6(2) : 203-218. DOI.org/10.37043/jura.2014.6.2.6. Ahouissoussi N., Boehlert., Brent B., Neumann James E., Okan C., Strzepek K., Srivastava., Jitendra P., 2014. Reducing the vulnerability of Azerbaijan's agricultural systems to climate change: impact assessment and adaptation options. A World Bank study. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. DOI.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0184-6. Ayyubov N. H., Abdullayeva G. I., 2015. Distribution of the population in high-altitude zones in the Sheki-Zagatala economic region: tendencies and improvement. Geography and Natural Resources 1 : 79-82. Ayyubov N. H., 2000. Management of distribution of population. In Constructive Geography of the Azerbaijan Republic 3: 191-197. Elm, Baku. Ayyubova L. J., 2006. Seismic hazard assessment of the Sheki-Ismayilli region, Azerbaijan. AIP Conference Proceedings 825(1): 107-112. DOI.org/10.1063/1.2190737. Babaev M. P., Dzhafarova Ch. M., Gasanov V. G., 2006. Modern Azerbaijani soil classification system. Eurasian Soil Sc. 39: 1176–1182. DOI.org/10.1134/S1064229306110044. Bachmann F., Maharjan A., Thieme S., Fleiner R., Wymann von Dach S., 2019. Migration and sustainable mountain development: turning challenges into opportunities. Sustainable mountainous development series . Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern with Bern Open Publishing (BOP). Bern. DOI.org/10.7892/boris.130222. Bagirov R. H., Humbatov Y. A., Efendiyev R. J., Mehdiyeva I. S., Sultanova N. I., 2022. Motivation factors of internal migration and agriculture in Azerbaijan. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research 9(4): 715-725. DOI.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i4.1109. Bayramov E., Schlager P., Kada M., Buchroithner M., Bayramov R., 2019. Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts onto predicted erosion risks and their spatial distribution within the landcover classes of the Southern Caucasus using GIS and remote sensing. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 5 : 659–667. DOI.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0557-3. Budagov B. A., Eminov Z. N., Mardanov I. E., 2006. Regularity of location of settlements in Azerbaijan by height belts. Proceedings of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, series of Earth sciences 3: 89-97. Budagov B. A., Mikayilov A. A., 1996. Physical and geographical landscape zoning. In Constructive Geography of the Azerbaijan Republic 1: 173-186. Elm, Baku. CDPAR (Census data of the population of the Azerbaijan Republic). 1989, 1999, 2009 and 2019 years. Statistical Committee of the Azerbaijan Republic. Baku. Conrad O., Bechtel B., Bock M., Dietrich H., Fischer E., Gerlitz L., Wehberg J., Wichmann V., Böhner J., 2015. System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) v. 2.1.4. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 8 : 2271–2312. DOI.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-2271-2015. Corrado F., 2014. Processes of re-settlement in mountain areas. Journal of Alpine Research Revue de géographie alpine (en ligne) 102( 3). DOI.org/10.4000/rga.2545. DIA (Demographic indicators of Azerbaijan ) , 2023. The yearly book of State Statistical Committee of the Azerbaijan Republic. Chashioglu EI PH, Baku. Ehrlich D., Melchiorri M., Capitani C., 2021. Population trends and urbanisation in mountain ranges of the world. Land 10(3): 255. DOI.org/10.3390/land10030255. Eminov Z. N. (2005). Population of Azerbaijan . Chirag, Baku. FAO, 2015. Mapping the vulnerability of mountain peoples to food insecurity. Romeo R., Vita A., Testolin R., Hofer T. Rome. Online: https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/fc51a31f-4d11-45da-a9f3-5d44277ab231/content Gahramanov B., 2023. Present situation, directions of development and problems of territorial organization of viticulture in the Mountainous Shirvan economic region. Ekonomichna ta Sotsialna Geografiya 90: 61-67. DOI.org/10.17721/2413-7154/2023.90.61-67. Geokchayskiy Sh. Y., 1988. Geograficheskiye problemi formirovaniyai razmesheniya naseleniya v Azerbaydzhanskoy SSR (in Russian) . In Problemi G ornogo Khozyaystva i Rasseleniya : 146-149. Grau H. R., Aide., T., M. 2007. Are rural-urban migration and sustainable development compatible in mountain systems? Mountain Research and Development 27(2): 119-123. DOI.org/10.1659/mrd.0906. Jafarova N. R., Ismatova K. R., 2021. Remote sensing-based digital model of the Absheron Peninsula. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 57: 1211–1221. DOI.org/10.1134/S0001433821090474. Jiménez-Espada M., Garcia F. M., González-Escobar R., 2023. Sustainability indicators and GIS as land-use planning instrument tools for urban model assessment. International Journal of Geo-Information (IJGI) 12(2): 42. DOI.org/10.3390/ijgi12020042. Karimov R. N., 2020. Assessment of sustainability of demographic development in mountain areas (on the example of Upland Shirvan region). Geography and Natural Resources 1 (11): 54-63. Online: https://journal.geonatres.az/en/2020-№1. Karimov R. N., 2011. Demographic and economic development of large cities in Azerbaijan. International Journal of Business & Social Science. 2(24), Special Issue – December: 268-274. Online: https://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_2_No_24_Special_Issue_December_2011/29.pdf. Kollmair M., Banerjee S., 2012. Drivers of migration in mountainous regions of the developing world: a review. Migration and Global Environmental Change : Challenges and Opportunities . UK Government’s Foresight Project. Foresight, London. Online: https://lib.icimod.org/record/27714. Mashimbye Z. E., De Clercq W. P., Van Niekerk A., 2014. An evaluation of digital elevation models (DEMs) for delineating land components. Geoderma 213: 312–319. DOI.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2013.08.023. Mehraliyev E. G., Ayyubov N. H., Sadigov M. O., 1988. Issues of distribution of population in the Azerbaijan SSR . Elm, Baku. Mehraliyev E. G., 1984. Geographical problems of formation and distribution of the population in the Azerbaijan SSR . Elm, Baku. Panagos P., Borrelli P., Meusburger K., 2015. New European slope length and steepness factor (LS-Factor) for modeling soil erosion by water. Geosciences 5: 117-126. DOI.org/10.3390/geosciences5020117. Pashayev N. A., Ayyubov N. H., Eminov Z. N., 2010. Economic, social and political geography of the Azerbaijan Republic. Chirag, Baku. Pashayev N. A., Karimov R. N., 2012. Ekonomiko-geograficheskoye issledovaniye vozdeystviya opolzney na rasseleniye naseleniya v Azerbaydzhanskoy Respublike (in Russian). Vеstnik Journal of Moscow State Regional University (Series of Economy) 4(3): 130-139. Pawanjeet S. D., Helmer S. K., 2010. Erosion relevant topographical parameters derived from different DEMs – a comparative study from the Indian Lesser Himalayas. Remote Sens. 2(8): 1941–1961. DOI.org/10.3390/rs2081941. Peper J., Pietzsch D., Manthey M., 2010. Semi-arid rangeland vegetation of the Greater Caucasus foothills in Azerbaijan and its driving environmental conditions. Phytocoenologia 40(2-3): 73-90. DOI.org/10.1127/0340-269X/2010/0040-0432. PoA., 2023. Population of Azerbaijan. Bulletin of the State Statistical Committee of the Azerbaijan Republic. Chashioglu EI PH, Baku. Rzayeva S. R., 2014. What can the locals tell us about globalization? Land, petroleum, and moral transformation in post-soviet Azerbaijan. PhD thesis defended at the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University. Online: https://hdl.handle.net/1813/37126. Tanriverdiyev Kh. K., Safarov A. S., 1999. Relief and opportunities for rational use of it in agriculture. In: Constructive Geography of the Azerbaijan Republic 2: 8-13. Elm, Baku. Thornton J. M., Snethlage M. A., Sayre R., Urbach D. R., Viviroli D., Ehrlich D., Muccione V., Wester Ph., Insarov G., Adler C., 2022. Human populations in the world’s mountains: spatio-temporal patterns and potential controls. PLOS ONE 17(7): e0271466. DOI.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271466. Stadelbauer J. Utilization and management of resources in mountain regions of the (former) Federal Republic of Germany. Mountain Research and Development 11(3): 231-238. International Mountain Society, Bern. DOI.org/10.2307/3673617. Suleymanov E., Rahmanov F., Gojayeva E., 2021. Ekonomika Azerbaydzhana (in Russian) . University Publishing House “Saints Cyril and Methodius”, Veliko Tarnovo. Yetirmishli G. J., Ismayilova S. S., Kazimova S. E., 2021. Ismayilli earthquake on February 5 th , 2019. Geology and Geophysics of Russian South 11 (4): 58–69. DOI.org/10.46698/vnc.2021.13.46.005. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6776935","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":464573409,"identity":"685a9f55-661f-49ac-8e4d-df24bbf9b20e","order_by":0,"name":"Rovshan Karimov","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Geography at the Ministry of Science and Education of the Azerbaijan Republic","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rovshan","middleName":"","lastName":"Karimov","suffix":""},{"id":464573411,"identity":"d64f6509-1243-4262-8656-683ba98c4400","order_by":1,"name":"Natavan Jafarova","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABE0lEQVRIie2PMUvDQBiGLxxclpOsFSH5C18IWEXwt6QEzNKCIJRCBTtlKrpe/0WLg3RL+OBcQm/NICgEOicURAeLMTjJVenmcM/yfsP78PESYjD8a2jahgttsF+r38nCNoL9ld78L6Vrq2zDr588J6Hrqk7O4wcnB1INkTh3qVY5nUb0iMu1LyQLZrMkGixFHyyxQtJJ9QqkETkUDEPyPAkoz+lgXnCgBwkSkk30iirpu9hi6El70yg3Magc6EejeKjfAkXEOnWCIUjefBk1R9oHajUKyF1KeXxS36K/kPzKEqNHfykuLrPpKuZ+vkNRvbIIX9FzpX1PKhh7XQcXL2/DM9dV+vl6vrp8j77BYDAYfvAJFutgFmJeqx0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Baku State University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Natavan","middleName":"","lastName":"Jafarova","suffix":""},{"id":464573415,"identity":"6d63f16a-0801-438a-abd1-83d4d517b82b","order_by":2,"name":"Rovshan Abbasov","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Khazar University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rovshan","middleName":"","lastName":"Abbasov","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-29 13:23:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6776935/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6776935/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":84197876,"identity":"403187fd-5504-4933-953f-61860c407419","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-09 08:02:10","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":412355,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eGeographical location of the economic region of Mountainous Shirvan\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/59f818706c9730949bead7b1.png"},{"id":84197877,"identity":"5ac9d3fd-7a99-42b3-a858-405dc78ed165","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-09 08:02:10","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":39901,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSteps of creation of a terrain model of Mountainous Shirvan\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/5a8ffb5bd5491d3024625568.png"},{"id":84198860,"identity":"f395c9f9-544c-4764-b79e-caf289bd2dfc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-09 08:10:10","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":295361,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eInterpolation analysis of the terrain of Mountainous Shirvan\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/c9fa4ee3a13ec02054f5b0d8.png"},{"id":84198861,"identity":"b1e2702b-0dc0-48a7-8fcc-9f470f4f8ec7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-09 08:10:10","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":341828,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDigital elevation model of Mountainous Shirvan (in SAGA GIS)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/99f9ca866959e911e9df2b12.png"},{"id":84197892,"identity":"1cdbfbf8-e505-4a5d-8e0d-f50320645a3d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-09 08:02:10","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":377662,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eLS-model of Mountainous Shirvan (in SAGA GIS)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/6826fb6d153172c7a48ab0e8.png"},{"id":84197883,"identity":"e1183e52-cb65-476e-9640-fe323f3f19f9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-09 08:02:10","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":927943,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMap of Land Use (developed in ArcGIS 10.8)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/fb14066a4084cfae245810a9.png"},{"id":84198863,"identity":"1cf38e65-6100-4113-b349-1bfcad168323","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-09 08:10:10","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":779740,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eComparison of analysis of the map of land use and LS-Factor model (on the example of the basin of Ayrichay River, the district of Ismayilli)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/257b6f9793da6912e2948e9e.png"},{"id":84199575,"identity":"7170bf87-62fc-4247-98e3-b0a443a7c1eb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-09 08:18:11","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":670225,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eIdentification of rural areas in the territory of Mountainous Shirvan\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/adf024810f47dd827f834397.png"},{"id":86592221,"identity":"06e0a92b-2461-43d4-94a5-2809a99dd98f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-13 07:53:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4354592,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6776935/v1/d1e20afd-f297-4251-8f66-248de1cb56b0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eStudying Sustainability of Settlements in Mountainous Shirvan\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eMountainous regions in most part of the world are characterized by low or relatively low density of big settlements and population compared to low plains. This is mostly due to intensified migrations from mountainous regions that have taken place in recent decades (Kollmair, Banerjee 2012). Mountain regions, their nature and population in a broad sense are vulnerable toward economic, policy-related, ecological and other external impacts. Driven by combined impact of climate change, environmental, economic and social factors, people living on high terrain now are very concerned over their further level of living and welfare, and therefore they are in search of better living conditions much actively than in the previous decades (FAO 2015). Demographic situation in mountain systems are being highly influenced by ongoing climate change and disasters (Thornton et al. 2022). More people today prefer lower altitudes to dwell, and urbanisation in mountain regions is lower than in lowlands (Ehrlich et al. 2021). Various rural regions throughout the world are in need of support such as development programs able to ensure sustainable growth, achieve progress in living and discourage outmigration (Grau, Aide 2007). From this view, to provide scientific prerequisite for possible supportive measurement, nowadays, studying trends in demographic processes and resettlement is of high importance to rural regions (Jiménez et al. 2023). Remote rural settlements found in mountain regions are the most vulnerable locations in terms of sustainable development, and resettlements originating in these regions may considerably influence the demographic processes and cultural changes in the future (Corrado 2014).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eImproving of network of necessary infrastructure facilities is very crucial in the demographic development of mountain settlements because it contributes to curbing of migrations from highlands. Natural resources of mountain regions are better managed and crate real incomes for local communities when government support towards the development of transportation, agriculture or tourism of these regions is ensured (Stadelbauer 1991), and the increased economic activities in mountain areas facilitate the demographic development of settlements and distribution of rural population more effectively. However, in some cases, such environmental factors as land erosion and reducing soil fertility along with long droughts and water scarcity contribute to out-migrations from mountain areas, thus wasting the supportive efforts and relegating the importance of economic factors to the background (Budagov et al. 2006, Abbasov et al. 2022b). This concerns the mountain regions of Azerbaijan as well. Droughts that happened in this country in 2014, 2016 and 2020 years can be shown as examples. These disasters challenged the living of rural communities in same years by causing the reduction of crops (Abbasov et al. 2022a). Soil erosion is manifested itself in mountainous areas of Azerbaijan causing farmers’ interests in farming to decrease (Aliyev 2018). In Greater Caucasus part of Azerbaijan, where many areas are landslide-prone and debris-prone (Pashayev et al. 2010), and where increasing physical vulnerability associated with inappropriately planned areas is emphasized as a big risk to local communities (Abbasov 2018), population has left their places of residence over years causing to disappearance of some settlements. Most mountainous regions nowadays lag behind plains for the level of development because highlands are no longer so attractive for many people in socioeconomic terms. The new generation segment of migrating population has an opportunity to use their skills in the new areas of arrivals, e.g. in big cities, whereas these skills were not effective and working in the areas they came from (Bachmann et al. 2019).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Azerbaijan, the areas with higher terrain encountered more demographic decline than the country's other parts. The population is distributed too unevenly in the country’s territory as its major part (62.3%) lives in lowland areas below 500 m of altitude (Pashayev et al. 2010), since mountain areas have lost considerable part of their residents as a result of internal displacements in the direction of areas situated lower (Karimov, 2011). For long, the migration of the population from the country’s various mountainous regions (such as Sheki-Zagatala, Mountainous Shirvan, Guba–Khachmaz etc.) to the urban area of Greater Baku hindered the demographic growth and weakened the demographic capacity of the rural regions (Afandiyev et al. 2014). The adverse impact of economic factors as the main drivers of unfavourable out-migration is strengthened more due to numerous disasters, environmental problems and climate driven concerns among rural communities (Abbasov et al. 2022b). Interests in traditional farming activities such as viticulture (e.g. in Ismayilli) have been decreased due to environmental factors (Gahramanov 2023), and the income-generating role of these activities has been reduced. Grasslands, hay meadows and other biodiversity resources are largely managed by the mountain rural population of the Greater Caucasus but this is not managed in efficient ways (Etzold et al. 2015). Significant portion of the young generation now is eager to engage jobs in services rather than in livestock and plant-growing. Eventually, available income-generating opportunities in agriculture and non-agricultural sectors influence the decision-making on migration among rural communities (Bagirov et al. 2022). The young are interested in being in urban environment, achieving higher standards of living and enjoying leisure time. The mentioned above causes to the occurrence of \"rural to urban\" resettlements (Karimov 2011).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Azerbaijan, hundreds of rural settlements have experienced depopulation since the end of twentieth century, in particular in mountainous areas. Cities functioning as administrative centers in rural regions are not so attractive for those who are in search of skilled jobs and services to enjoy, and demographically and economically these cities are too behind the capital Baku (Eminov 2005, Karimov 2020). The long migrations from villages to cities entailed depopulation and unsustainable demographic growth in some part of settlements of the country (Abbasov et al. 2022b). Mountainous Shirvan, a study area of this research, is one of those regions of Azerbaijan where demographic sustainability of settlements is of high concern.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe aim of this paper is to determine the distinguishing features of geographical distribution of population, and assess the demographic sustainability of rural areas and settlements of Mountainous Shirvan through mapping and revealing the changes going in their population number.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eStudy area\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe economic region of Mountainous Shirvan is located in the southern and southeastern parts of the Greater Caucasus part of Azerbaijan. It occupies the southern and southeastern parts of Greater Caucasus Mountains in the north, and partly covers the Kur-Aras lowland in the south (Fig. 1). Most of its territory is composed of high terrain, steep slopes of ridges, widely stretching outskirts of mountains and large river valleys (Budagov, Mikayilov 1996). The altitude in the region varies between 26 m below and 4466 m above sea level. The region’s territory is rich in biological diversity and valuable black, brown and chestnut soils (Babaev et al. 2006, Peper et al. 2010,).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMountainous Shirvan has an area of 6.13 thousand sq. km., or 7.1% of the territory area of Azerbaijan. The population of Mountainous Shirvan is 317.8 thousand persons, or 3.1% of the country’s population (PoA 2023). About two-third part of its population are rural dwellers. The region includes Ismayilli, Shamakhi, Agsu, and Gobustan rural districts. Mountainous Shirvan is geographically the closest region to most developed and populous area of Azerbaijan – the Baku–Sumgait urban area. This geographical proximity indeed is both an advantage and a curbing agent in the development Mountainous Shirvan, with considering the very high gravitational power of the highly industrialized Baku–Sumgait in terms of involvement of labor force from outside.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eStudying the distribution of population and the resettlement processes going in Mountainous Shirvan is very topical for Azerbaijan, since demographically it is less competitive than the country’s other regions. Weakness of the region demographically as well as in urbanization context is mostly related to underdevelopment of the region in economic terms. Mountainous Shirvan is included in the category of “Azerbaijan’s weakly developed regions” (Suleymanov et al. 2021). The weak development of both industrial and agrarian sectors has curbed the demographic development of settlements in the region. Despite its very long history of settlement, Mountainous Shirvan is in the last places for the population number among the country’s economic regions (PoA 2023).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Methods","content":"\u003cp\u003eTo assess the demographic situation and tendencies in population growth of Mountainous Shirvan from 1999 to 2019 years, first we reviewed relevant scientific literature where the natural and geographical conditions, including the terrain factor playing an important role in sustainability of settlements, are analyzed. Beside with this, based on available literature materials and also our fieldwork data, we assessed the influencing role of geographical conditions and factors in distribution of population. Then analysis of the statistical data on population number of rural settlements was carried out separately by all the four administrative districts of the studied region \u0026ndash; Shamakhi, Ismayilli, Agsu, and Gobustan. We compared data of the three last censuses (1999, 2009 and 2019 years) on the region\u0026rsquo;s rural settlements to define where either increase in population number or depopulation has taken place (CDPAR 1999, 2009, 2019).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFurthermore, the territory of Mountainous Shirvan was studied by us in the GIS environment. Using of geospatial information and developing of a digital terrain model is an effective tool that will make possible to interconnect various processes and factors (erosion, landslides, distribution of population, land use etc.) going and prevailing in a same area (Jafarova, Ismatova 2021). Maps developed by us in ArcGIS 10.8 make the terrain properties and the geographical distribution of the population of Mountainous Shirvan clearly visible. \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSince the territory of Mountainous Shirvan is highly fragmented by river- and intermountain valleys as well as is landslide-and erosion-prone, which significantly influenced the distribution of population and the development of settlements, one of our tasks was the creation of \u0026nbsp;the model of slope length and steepness factor (LS-factor) with using digital elevation model (DEM) developed through the Copernicus program and widely applied in regional assessments (Pawanjeet et al. 2010, Mashimbye et al. 2014, Panagos et al. 2015). It must enable us to define the relationship of the altitude factor and the size of settlements and their density. Studies in this direction were carried out through compiling and analyzing of maps created in ArcGIS. To examine the role of altitude factor in population distribution and resettlement, we created a terrain model in the ArcGIS 10,8 program in line with the steps below:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1. Addressing DEM model. \u0026nbsp;2. Heights were revealed by using the Extract Point tool. 3. The obtained heights were used in the IDW tool. 4. Shapefile of settlements was integrated to the map.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe sequence of relevant operations as shown in Fig. 2 was followed to draw integrated maps of terrain model and distribution of settlements for the territory of Mountainous Shirvan.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA landslide model was created by us, for which the DEM model served as the primary data. This action was carried out in the SAGA GIS program (Fig. 3 and 4) known as effective in terrain analysis (Conrad et al. 2015). The Land-Slide Factor model (Fig. 5) obtained due to processing of the DEM model (Fig. 4) characterizes the impact of slope length on soil degradation (water erosion) in the direction of the watershed of the mountain ridges. The map created in ArcGIS 10.8 (Fig. 6), showing what type of land use is common in the studied region, serves as a source of information about the impact of settlements on the nature. This map was created based on the statistical and aerospace data. Through comparing the maps of land use (Fig. 6) and the LS-Factor model (Fig. 5), the patterns of soil degradation and the geography of agricultural activities available in the territory can be defined, as it is shown on the example of Ayrichay part of Ismayilli (Fig. 7).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;To demonstrate the distribution of settlements present in the studied region, a settlement map was compiled, which made it possible to compare the density of existing settlements (rural areas) within the boundaries of the regions of Ismayilli, Agsu, Shamakhi and Gobustan (Fig. 8). Thus, the compiled maps enabled us to demonstrate the geographical coverage of landslide-prone areas, the relationship of vulnerability to landslide hazards and the presence of a certain type of land use, as well as the distribution of rural areas (agglomerations), where the concentration of the rural population is higher.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData analysis \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn terms of territory, Mountainous Shirvan can be referred as \u0026ldquo;a region with very high capacity\u0026rdquo; (Ayyubov 2000). In this region, natural conditions are different, and natural resources, suitable (fertile land resources, fresh water resources, etc.) for economic activities are distributed unevenly (Tanriverdiyev, Safarov 1999). Fragmentation of the relief as well as the presence of inclined hills and descents and ascents may challenge the settlement process in some parts of the region (Budagov, Mikayilov 1996). From west to east in most part of the region, the altitude of relief increases. The foothills and low Mountainous areas of Shamakhi and Ismayilli districts are more populous, and the number of rural settlements in such areas is higher than others. Presence of abundant fodder of high livestock importance in highlands enables rural communities to perform seasonal migrations between summer and winter pastures (Abbasov et al. 2022c).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHistorically, extreme natural events and devastating disasters have been observed in the region of Mountainous Shirvan. In the surroundings of Shamakhi, drought is considered as the main weather-related disaster observed mostly in summer which adversely influences the livelihood of communities (Ahouissoussi et al. \u0026nbsp;2014). Warmer climate made necessary the shifting to the cultivation of aridity-tolerant crops in lower plains (Aliyev 2018). High winds that took place in December 1996, April 2005, and February 2006, floods of July 2008 and April 2010, drought observed in July of 2010, and hails of April 1997, May 2001, and May 2002 are among numerous disasters that have hit Shamakhi in the last thirty years (Ahouissoussi et al. 2014). Arid climatic conditions, scarcity of water resources, lack of irrigation canals, limited access to irrigation conditions, and low soil fertility are affecting the distribution of population in Gobustan and in part in Shamakhi district (Aliyev 2018, Abbasov et al. 2022b).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUpper parts of the mountains with more than 2000 m of altitude have cold climate and are relatively unsuitable for dwelling of population (Budagov, Mikayilov 1996). Relatively flat plains and foothill areas are widely spread in the region. The medium and high mountainous areas and high valleys altitude of which reaches up 1200-1300 m (Lahij, Mudri, Chukhuryurd etc.) are useful for settlement and farming (Tanriverdiyev, Safarov 1999).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the study area, natural resources such as various verbs and plants bearing high treatment properties are intensively used by the local dwellers. Potatoes and vegetables harvested, berries and nuts collected in mountainous forests, and goats and sheep fed on the grazing fields of the commons contribute to self-sufficient livelihoods (Rzayeva 2014). Eventually, in some areas, natural landscapes like forests, shrubberies, and rare forests remained in the areas of grazing, are \u0026ldquo;intervened\u0026rdquo; by cultural landscapes. Long anthropogenic influence, caused by the activity of shepherds using the area, is evident in many places. Much obvious and intensive transformations associated with deforestation typically originates at the eve of colder season when chaotic tree-cutting is conducted driven by lack of gas supply. Also, intensive farming activities caused to diminishing of soil productivity over years. It stressed vegetations in particular in the territory of Ismayilli district, as a result of which, significant parts of bare lands and croplands lost their vegetation (Bayramov et al. 2019). \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Mountainous Shirvan the seismicity is high (Ayyubova 2006). Seismicity has increased over the past 15 years in this region. For example, In October 2012, relatively strong earthquake with a magnitude of 5.3 took place here (Yetirmishli 2021), thus creating a risk for certain settlements. Some villages existing in Shamakhi, Ismayilli, Agsu and Gobustan districts are regularly affected and devastated by earthquakes and eventual heavy landslides: the occurrence of earthquakes may lead to origination of landslide hubs in some places over certain time. Landslides in Mountainous Shirvan are driven by both natural (earthquakes) and man-made (construction of facilities) factors (Pashayev, Karimov 2012).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe digital elevation modeling carried by us with using previous databases as well as those we obtained during our fieldworks in 2021-2023 years, make it possible to identify the landslide-prone areas (Fig. 5). The fact that Mountainous Shirvan is very landslide-prone region is evident. Because of the climate change and droughts, cultivation opportunities become limited and difficult. Soil degradation, and ongoing landslides are obvious in many places as well which makes living challenging. Some springs are dried in the region and this was confirmed by local communities when we met them during our fieldworks in 2023. Unfortunately, environmental and climate induced factors continue to push some part of local communities to leave from their living areas, and thus, demographic development of rural areas is challenged. \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnalysis showed that 40 settlements (19,400 inhabitants) in Ismayilli, 15 settlements (15,500 inhabitants) in Shamakhi, 11 settlements (3,800 inhabitants) in Agsu, and 3 settlements in Gobustan (4,800 inhabitants) exist under the risk of landslides. The most concerned situation is observed in Ismayilli and Shamakhi districts (Fig. 4). For example, in the late 80es, a landslide in the village of Varna destroyed all the houses, forcing the population to move to other parts of the district of Ismayilli, and the village completely disappeared. In May of 2002, a heavy landslide occurred in the village of Jabani, resulting in huge damages and temporary migration of population. Or, all the residents of Garcha, another settlement in Ismayilli, have left their houses under the impact of landslide, permanently settling in Lahij. Mughanli village of Shamakhi district was heavily devastated by the landslide in 2010, and the village was completely relocated, and its residents became dwellers of a new settlements built for them in another area (Pashayev, Karimov 2012). Landslides, induced by earthquakes, very frequent too, devastating also Madrasa and Meysari villages of Shamakhi district and leaving the dwellers in difficult living conditions (Fig. 6). The areas alongside the rivers of Agsu, Pirsaat and Gozluchay, as well as the transport and infrastructure facilities have been devastated over and over by heavy landslides and long-term influence of active erosional processes (Budagov et al. 2006). There were many other cases fixed in Mountainous Shirvan, where rural settlements fully or in part disappeared due to devastating landslides. Similar migrations still continue to occur in some rural settlements.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt should be noted that the demographic development of the region of Mountainous Shirvan used to lag behind since the Soviet era, and the out-migration were adversely influencing on the population growth (Mehraliyev 1984). The study area has been lagging both economically and demographically from other regions of Azerbaijan. This was related to sociodemographic conditions existing in this region and underestimation of natural increase and distribution of urban and rural population when planning the social and economic development in Mountainous Shirvan. Weak socioeconomic base and the related human migration were the main hindering factors in the demographic development of Mountainous Shirvan for decades. Smaller highland villages were declared \u0026ldquo;ineffective\u0026rdquo; and combined in accordance with the state policy of resettling lowland areas (Mehraliyev et al. 1988). Consequently, many villages located in medium and high mountains areas have been disappeared in the region. Most of the abandoned villages actually once situated in attractive landscapes of high ecotourism opportunities (Abbasov et al. 2022b), whereas this potential was not used during the Soviet period. Meanwhile, like in other Soviet republics, the transformation of the system of rural settlement was necessary to meet requirements of the new conditions (Geokchayskiy 1988). However, instead, the hard social and economic difficulties following the breakdown of the USSR challenged the demographic development of Mountainous Shirvan more. The economic region had been characterized also by a low level of urbanization, and the formation of cities was challenged against the background of increasing migration flows to the Absheron region (Afandiyev, Damirgayayev 1995). Economic problems forced the population of Mountainous Shirvan to migrate to Baku city and its suburb settlements more intensively during the first years of Azerbaijan\u0026rsquo;s independence. Because of the same reason the formation of not only villages but also of urban-type settlements and cities lagged in Mountainous Shirvan. This situation is still present, and therefore, the number and population number of settlements are lower in the region (Eminov 2005). There are significant differences in population number in Mountainous Shirvan. The villages in this region are of different sizes. Thus, depending on the relief properties, they are concentrated in small areas forming groups of rural settlements, whereas in other places the settlements are evidently scattered and located far from each other (e.g. in Gobustan district).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are 272 villages in the region of Mountainous Shirvan. 67.6% of all villages are in the territory of Shamakhi (38.6%) and Agsu (29.0%) districts. Shamakhi with 105.1 thousand residents is the largest district, combining 33% of the region\u0026rsquo;s total population, while Ismayilli is the second and Agsu is the third (Table 1). The district of Agsu has the highest population density. According to the official statistics, 65.8% of the population of Mountainous Shirvan is composed of rural population, and only 34.2% are urban residents (DIA 2023).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Results","content":"\u003cp\u003eWe achieved two main results gained in this research. The \u003cem\u003efirst main result of our research\u003c/em\u003e is about the changes going in the number of settlements. The analysis of these changes allowed us to assess demographic sustainability of Mountainous Shirvan by distinguishing each four districts of this region respectively.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThrough comparing the census data for various years we found that decline in population number is a very typical feature of the region.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 1.\u003cbr\u003eThe main demographic data of the Mountainous Shirvan region\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" width=\"506\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTerritory of a district or an economic region\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 57px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eTerritory area,\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ethousand sq.km\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 28px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNumber of cities\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNumber of urban settlements\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eNumber of villages\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePopulation number, thous. person 01.01.2023)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003ePopulation density, thous. pers./sq.km\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eUrban population (thousand person)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 54px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRural population (thous. person)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eShamakhi\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 57px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.67\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 28px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e57\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e104.8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e63\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e55.7\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 54px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e49.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIsmayilli\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 57px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.07\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 28px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e105\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e86.6\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e42\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e29.5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 54px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e57.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAgsu\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 57px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.02\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 28px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e79\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e80.0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e80\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e22.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 54px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e57.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGobustan\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 57px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.37\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 28px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e31\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e46.4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e34\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e10.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 54px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.3\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 85px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRegion of Mountainous Shirvan (total)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 57px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e6.13\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 28px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 38px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e272\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 68px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e326.8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 55px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e52\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 66px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e111.8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd valign=\"top\" style=\"width: 54px;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e215.0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe table is compiled based on: DIA 2023.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003cem\u003eShamakhy,\u003c/em\u003e as we found, 8 villages (Talishnuru, Ikinji Jabani, Birinji Chaghan, Jabani, Yenikand, Shirvan, Pirbayli, Gizmeydan) experienced depopulation in 1999\u0026ndash;2019. The village of Ajidere, which had 8 residents only in 1999, disappeared completely by 2019. Demographic development in Jabani, Shirvan, Damirchi, Zarat-Kheybari, Galaderesi, Yusif Mammadaliyev, Birinji Chaghan, Gizmeydan, Pirbayli, and Yenikand, where decline happened in 2009\u0026ndash;2019, is not sustainable as well.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003cem\u003eAgsu,\u003c/em\u003e 12 rural settlements out of 79 ones, experienced depopulation in 1999\u0026ndash;2019, and the village of Girda disappeared. These are Novju, Arabsarvan, Namirli, Shahbayli, Hajuushaghi, Nuran, Dadali, Zargava, Kandukhan, Gasimbayli, Rahimaghali, Khasidere. Considering cnhages in data by 2009 and 2019 years, we suggest that there is a high risk of disappearance in 4 villages in the next future: Kandakhan, Yenikand, Hingar, and Khasidere.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eIsmayilli\u003c/em\u003e, 32 settlements out of 105 ones, that is nearly a third part of all, were reduced in population number in 1999\u0026ndash;2019. These settlements are Ivanovka, Burovdal, Keshkhurt, Girk, Nanij, Guyum, Keyvandi, Mulukh, Goydan, Zarat, Ustalgishlag, Shabiyan, Kelbend, Shukurchu, Yenikend, Goshakend, Tubukend, Genze, Mudri, Kalfaraj, Mudrise, Zergeran, Yukhari Julyan, Sulut, Haftasov, Charmadil, Pirabulgasim, Goshakand, Khimran, Vasha, and Piraganim, as well as the urban settlement of Lahij (where insignificant reduction at 5 persons was fixed).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBeside with all the villages mentioned above, there are other two dozens of villages where depopulation declined in 2009\u0026ndash;2019 years: Baghali, Duvaryan, Zarnava, Sardahar, Mushkamir, Kulullu, Galagah, Galajig, Minga, Bilistan, Balik, Enishdibi, Dahar, Gichatan, Taghlabiyan, Muju, Shirvanmesha, Kurduvan, Ayyubbayli, Khalilli, Basgal, and Elabad.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn\u0026nbsp;\u003cem\u003eGobustan\u003c/em\u003e, the rural settlements of Dagh Kolani, Shikhlar, Damlamaja, and Chay Gurbanchi disappeared. In 1999-2009, 9 villages (Nardaran, Gurbanchi, Mudrisa, Julyan, Sulut, Kalfaraj, Guchatan, Sersure, and Jeyrankechmaz) experienced depopulation in Gobustan. In 2009-2019 years population declined in the villages of Jeyrankechmez, Uzumchu, Garajuzlu, and Nabur only. The village of Jeyrankechmez as well as some rural settlements such as Ilanli and Nardaran are vulnerable in demographic terms and may disappear even despite their relatively bigger size.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to the census data of 2019, where the numbers of both permanent and temporarily absent population are shown, 11712 people de-facto live in another region but not in Mountainous Shirvan.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe second main result of our research\u003c/em\u003e is about the distribution features of population in the territory of Mountainous Shirvan. Thus, by compiling the maps noted above (Fig. 3 and 7), we acknowledged visually how the population is distributed in the region. Eventually, based on the compiled maps, we identified and distinguished the rural agglomerations here.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere is a considerable difference in the distribution of villages in the district of \u003cem\u003eShamakhi\u003c/em\u003e. Some of them are closer to the administrative city-center. To the south, as well as in the areas over 1500 m, the density of rural settlements is lower than in foothills.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe identified 6 small rural agglomerations (group of villages) in Shamakhi. The villages of the first group are located south of the district center \u0026ndash; mainly on the right bank of Pirsaat River. This agglomeration includes Kalakhana, Kerkanej, Adnaly, Sabirli, Charhan, Nuydu, Dagh Bagirli, Yenikand, Goylar Dag, Lalazar, Birinci Chayli, Gushchu, etc.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnother rural agglomeration covers the direction of Langabiz Ridge with the highest demographic potential in the district of Shamakhi. There are Baghirli (2.5 thousand inhabitants), Ovchulu and other relatively smaller villages here; all are located in relatively flat areas.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe third important rural agglomeration, if it can be referred so, includes the villages around the highway Shamakhi\u0026ndash;Ismayilli. It encompasses the northwestern end of the Langabiz range where Garavalli, Maljak, Gurdtepe, Shirvan, Sagian, Sharadil, Mirikend, Mughanli, and Boyuk Khirisli villages are found. These villages are too dispersed and do not form a complete agglomeration but form a long linear area consisting of settlements with relatively better access to major highways and infrastructure.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe fourth rural agglomeration of Shamakhi is a group of villages situated east and northeast to the district center. Being geographically closer to the city of Shamakhi, these villages are Jabani, Ikinji Jabani, Hamyali, and Gonagkand. This low and medium mountainous territory where population settled is landslide-sensitive.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe fifth rural agglomeration is a group of villages located to the north-west of the city of Shamakhi. This medium mountainous territory is settled by the residents of Dedagunash, Birinji Jagan, Ikinji Jagan, Kechmeddin, Galeybugurd, Galadaresi, Sis and other villages located compactly.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAngakharan, Chukhuryurd, Nagharakhana and other villages are found in the direction from Shamakhi to Yusif Mammadaliyev settlement. They form the sixth, very scarce in demographic terms, rural agglomeration. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA comparative analysis shows that rural settlements that are located at higher altitudes and specialize in agricultural production (grain-growing, viticulture, and fruit-growing), either already have experienced depopulation, or may experience this process in the upcoming years and decades (Fig. 5 and 7; CDPAR, 1999\u0026ndash;2019).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the \u003cem\u003edistrict\u003c/em\u003e of \u003cem\u003eAgsu,\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003eunlike Shamakhi, Ismayilli and Gobustan, the territory is composed mainly of plains, where relatively high density of villages is common. The northern part of this district is occupied by dry pastures and in part by mountain slopes. The relief of Agsu is very favorable for settlement, as concluded in our analysis (Fig. 3, 4 and 7). Waters of Girdimanchay, Agsuchay and their tributaries, Aghdarchay, Nazirchay and other rivers are widely used in farming. Lands are very suitable for planting. The Shirvan plain covering the southern part of Agsu district, is a territory of intensive irrigation. Villages have long been specialized in cattle- and sheep breeding, grain growing, viticulture, cotton growing, fruit and vegetable growing. Rural settlements are involved in both livestock and cultivation of cereals, orchards, sunflower, pomegranate, grape etc. (Fig. 5). Since irrigational and intensively-developed agricultural sector is prevalent in Agsu, the district has a relatively high density of villages despite its relatively smaller area. To the north of the Garamaryam Ridge, there are a lot of villages specializing in different crop production due to irrigation opportunities. Beside with this, numerous small and medium villages are found to the north of Agsu city, along Agsu River. Rural settlements are present also in the south, towards the Hajigabul district. In general, 16 villages are found in the mountain zone.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe identified 9 small rural agglomerations in Agsu: Bozavand\u0026ndash;Agharkh, Gagali\u0026ndash;Arabushagi\u0026ndash;Chaparli, Bijo\u0026ndash;Langabiz, Garagoyunlu\u0026ndash;Novju\u0026ndash;Arabsarvan, Padar\u0026ndash;Pirhasanli, Kandoba\u0026ndash;Abbaskhanly, Gurjuvan, Nuyudlu\u0026ndash;Girlar, and Kalva (Fig. 6). Most of these rural areas involve smaller villages only.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the \u003cem\u003edistrict of Ismayilli\u003c/em\u003e, the relief and biodiversity conditions are complex. Considerable part of the territory of Ismayilli is landslide-prone, as identified in our maps (Fig. 4 and 5). The areas of settlements of Lahij, Mudri, Varna, Himran, Ahan, Zargaran, Tirjan etc. are regularly subjected to the impact of destructive natural processes. Prevalence of fertile dark brown, chestnut-colored and black soils allows develop different plant species, including organic crops. Areas of grain-growing, leguminous cultivation, technical crops, fruit-growing, and livestock are of high importance in terms of sustainable development of rural areas. Recreational potential of villages of Ismayilli is higher. Due to largeness of the area and the relief features, the villages in Ismayilli are geographically highly scattered (Fig. 3 and 7). \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to our research, rural settlements (agglomerations) in the territory of Ismayilli district can be grouped as follows:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1. Villages located to the right of Shamakhi-Agsu-Ismayilli highway, either in the vicinity or relatively far to this main transport road of transition importance.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e2. Highland villages located higher than the Lahij area, those scattered towards the Burovdal village.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e3. High mountain villages found on the right bank of upper parts of Girdimanchay River.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e4. Mountain villages found to northwest of Ismayilli city.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e5. Villages located on the plateau of Gash, the western part of the district.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e6. Villages spread to the southwest and south from Ismayilli city.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e7. Villages located to the east from the Ismayilli-Kurdmashi highway.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e8. Villages located to southeast of Ismayilli city, the foothills of the Langabiz mountain ridge and adjacent areas.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDevastating landslides are one of the reasons for the weakening of demographic potential of villages in Ismayilli. Most landslide-sensitive settlements are Diyalli, Guyum, Tirjan, Vasha, Bizlan, Mudrisa, Dvoryan, Lahij, Khankendi, Basgal, Sulut, Gushanja, Khanagah, Yeniyol, Ikinji Yeniyol, Hajihatamli, Kalazeyva, and Garagaya, where, respectively, the risk of environmental migration is relatively higher as well. Moreover, the relief conditions may limit the expansion of most of these rural settlements spatially (Fig. 4, 5, and 6).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn \u003cem\u003eGobustan district\u003c/em\u003e, rural areas are situated too far from each other. The main economic activities among the rural population are sheep breeding, cattle breeding, drought-tolerant planting and in part bee-keeping. These activities serve as a ground for development of settlements (Fig. 5). Since villages are distributed scarcely, and are almost segregated, it is impossible to distinguish any rural agglomeration in Gobustan (Fig. 7).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe situation in the region of Mountainous Shirvan is not advantageous in terms of demographic sustainability: tens of rural settlements recently have suffered from out-migration and depopulation. The risk of disappearance of settlements is widely present in concrete parts of the region. Ling out-migrations had a footprint on the demographic development of both cities and rural settlements.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUpon exploring the distribution of settlements in the territory of Mountainous Shirvan region, we found out that totally 55 settlements have already experienced depopulation. About 8\u0026ndash;10 villages have been disappeared or almost disappeared, given the condition that the number of their inhabitants is very low. As our study showed, around 30 villages in the region are under the high risk of disappearance, while, a few tens of others are also associated with the presence of such risk at relatively lesser degree.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe also conclude that the process of formation of rural agglomerations is weak in the region of Mountainous Shirvan. This concerns particularly Ismayilli and Shamakhi districts, while in Gobustan district the villages are too isolated at high extent and unfavorable to form rural agglomerations at all. Most of rural settlements present in mountainous parts of the region lags behind the foothill villages for demographic development.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThough rural settlements have formed 6 rural agglomerations in Shamakhi, 9 rural agglomerations in Agsu and 8 rural agglomerations in Ismayilli, most of rural settlements present in these districts are smaller in size, and are vulnerable in terms of sustainability. The presence of villages of the disappearance risk is typical mostly for Ismayilli, and at lesser extent for Shamakhi and Gobustan districts.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, the demographic situation is not acknowledged by us as \u0026lsquo;very critical\u0026rsquo;. Since Mountainous Shirvan owns large territorial and resource capacity, favorable for settlement and development, using of its natural, human and economic potential in efficient and sustainably-managed way may ensure sustainable demographic development in the near and mid-term perspective.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis paper was written within the Horizon-2020 Project \u0026ldquo;Interconnecting Histories and Archives for Migrant Agency: Entangled Narratives across Europe and the Mediterranean Region\u0026rdquo; (ITHACA) funded by European Commission. 2021-2025. https://ithacahorizon.eu \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor\u0026rsquo;s contribution\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConceptualization: RK; Meth\u0026shy;odology: RK and NJ; Formal analysis: RK, NJ and RA; Writing-review and editing: RK and RA; Funding acquisition: RK; Supervision: RK; Writing original draft: RK, NJ and RA; Software: NJ; Data cura\u0026shy;tion: NJ\u003cstrong\u003e:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eInvestigation: RK and RA; Editing: RA.|All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. The authors declare no conflict of interest in this study. \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgments\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors thank the reviewers for their in\u0026shy;sightful comments on the original version of the article.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCopyright\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSubmission of a paper is taken to imply that it has not been published elsewhere and has not been submitted for publication elsewhere. Authors are responsible for obtaining permission to reproduce any material for which they may not own copyright.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAbbasov R. Kh., 2018. Community-based disaster risk management in Azerbaijan. Springer, Cham. DOI.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69653-9. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAbbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., 2022a. Ecosystem and socioeconomic value of clean water. In: Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., \u003cem\u003eEcosystem services in Azerbaijan: values and losses: 71-121. \u003c/em\u003eSpringer, Cham. DOI.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08770-7_3. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAbbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., 2022b. Environmental migration and cultural losses. In: Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R. \u003cem\u003eEcosystem services in Azerbaijan: values and losses:123-179.\u003c/em\u003e Springer, Cham. DOI.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08770-7_4. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAbbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., 2022c. Mountain ecosystem values. In: Abbasov R. Kh., Karimov R. N., Jafarova N. R., \u003cem\u003eEcosystem services in Azerbaijan: values and losses: \u003c/em\u003e29-69. Springer, Cham. DOI.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08770-7_2. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAfandiyev V. A., Damirgayayev Sh. G., 1995. \u003cem\u003eGeographical issues of development of cities in the Azerbaijan Republic\u003c/em\u003e. Nijat, Baku. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAfandiyev V. A., Eminov Z. N., Nagiyev S. G., 2014. Economic and geographic factors affecting the development of Greater Baku. \u003cem\u003eJournal of Urban and Regional Analysis\u003c/em\u003e \u003cem\u003e6(2)\u003c/em\u003e: 203-218. DOI.org/10.37043/jura.2014.6.2.6. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAhouissoussi N., Boehlert., Brent B., Neumann James E., Okan C., Strzepek K., Srivastava., Jitendra P., 2014. Reducing the vulnerability of Azerbaijan\u0026apos;s agricultural systems to climate change: impact assessment and adaptation options. A World Bank study. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. DOI.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0184-6.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAyyubov N. H., Abdullayeva G. I., 2015. Distribution of the population in high-altitude zones in the Sheki-Zagatala economic region: tendencies and improvement. \u003cem\u003eGeography and Natural Resources\u003c/em\u003e \u003cem\u003e1\u003c/em\u003e: 79-82. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAyyubov N. H., 2000. Management of distribution of population. In \u003cem\u003eConstructive Geography of the Azerbaijan Republic\u003c/em\u003e \u003cem\u003e3: \u003c/em\u003e191-197. Elm, Baku.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAyyubova L. J., 2006. Seismic hazard assessment of the Sheki-Ismayilli region, Azerbaijan. \u003cem\u003eAIP Conference Proceedings\u003c/em\u003e \u003cem\u003e825(1): \u003c/em\u003e107-112. DOI.org/10.1063/1.2190737. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBabaev M. P., Dzhafarova Ch. M., Gasanov V. G., 2006. Modern Azerbaijani soil classification system.\u003cem\u003e Eurasian Soil Sc. 39:\u003c/em\u003e 1176\u0026ndash;1182. DOI.org/10.1134/S1064229306110044. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBachmann F., Maharjan A., Thieme S., Fleiner R., Wymann von Dach S., 2019. \u003cem\u003eMigration and sustainable mountain development: turning challenges into opportunities. Sustainable mountainous development series\u003c/em\u003e. Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Bern with Bern Open Publishing (BOP). Bern. DOI.org/10.7892/boris.130222. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBagirov R. H., Humbatov Y. A., Efendiyev R. J., Mehdiyeva I. S., Sultanova N. I., 2022. Motivation factors of internal migration and agriculture in Azerbaijan. \u003cem\u003eJournal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research\u003c/em\u003e 9(4): 715-725. DOI.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i4.1109. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBayramov E., Schlager P., Kada M., Buchroithner M., Bayramov R., 2019. Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts onto predicted erosion risks and their spatial distribution within the landcover classes of the Southern Caucasus using GIS and remote sensing. \u003cem\u003eModeling Earth Systems and Environment 5\u003c/em\u003e: 659\u0026ndash;667. DOI.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0557-3. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBudagov B. A., Eminov Z. N., Mardanov I. E., 2006. Regularity of location of settlements in Azerbaijan by height belts. \u003cem\u003eProceedings of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, series of Earth sciences 3:\u003c/em\u003e 89-97.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBudagov B. A., Mikayilov A. A., 1996. Physical and geographical landscape zoning. In \u003cem\u003eConstructive Geography of the Azerbaijan Republic 1:\u003c/em\u003e 173-186. Elm, Baku. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eCDPAR (Census data of the population of the Azerbaijan Republic). 1989, 1999, 2009 and 2019 years. Statistical Committee of the Azerbaijan Republic. Baku.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eConrad O., Bechtel B., Bock M., Dietrich H., Fischer E., Gerlitz L., Wehberg J., Wichmann V., B\u0026ouml;hner J., 2015. System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) v. 2.1.4. \u003cem\u003eGeoscientific Model Development Discussions 8\u003c/em\u003e: 2271\u0026ndash;2312. DOI.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-2271-2015. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eCorrado F., 2014. Processes of re-settlement in mountain areas. \u003cem\u003eJournal of Alpine Research Revue de g\u0026eacute;ographie alpine (en ligne) 102(\u003c/em\u003e3). DOI.org/10.4000/rga.2545. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDIA (Demographic indicators of Azerbaijan\u003cem\u003e)\u003c/em\u003e, 2023. The yearly book of State Statistical Committee of the Azerbaijan Republic. Chashioglu EI PH, Baku. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eEhrlich D., Melchiorri M., Capitani C., 2021. Population trends and urbanisation in mountain ranges of the world. \u003cem\u003eLand 10(3): \u003c/em\u003e255. DOI.org/10.3390/land10030255. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eEminov Z. N. (2005). \u003cem\u003ePopulation of Azerbaijan\u003c/em\u003e. Chirag, Baku. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eFAO, 2015. \u003cem\u003eMapping the vulnerability of mountain peoples to food insecurity.\u003c/em\u003e Romeo R., Vita A., Testolin R., Hofer T. Rome. Online: https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/fc51a31f-4d11-45da-a9f3-5d44277ab231/content\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGahramanov B., 2023. Present situation, directions of development and problems of territorial organization of viticulture in the Mountainous Shirvan economic region. \u003cem\u003eEkonomichna ta Sotsialna Geografiya\u003c/em\u003e \u003cem\u003e90: \u003c/em\u003e61-67. DOI.org/10.17721/2413-7154/2023.90.61-67. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGeokchayskiy Sh. Y., 1988. Geograficheskiye problemi formirovaniyai razmesheniya naseleniya v Azerbaydzhanskoy SSR (in Russian)\u003cem\u003e. \u003c/em\u003eIn \u003cem\u003eProblemi \u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003eG\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003eornogo Khozyaystva i Rasseleniya\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e:\u003c/em\u003e\u003cem\u003e 146-149.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGrau H. R., Aide., T., M. 2007. Are rural-urban migration and sustainable development compatible in mountain systems? \u003cem\u003eMountain Research and Development 27(2): \u003c/em\u003e119-123. DOI.org/10.1659/mrd.0906. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eJafarova N. R., Ismatova K. R., 2021. Remote sensing-based digital model of the Absheron Peninsula. \u003cem\u003eIzv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 57:\u003c/em\u003e 1211\u0026ndash;1221. DOI.org/10.1134/S0001433821090474. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eJim\u0026eacute;nez-Espada M., Garcia F. M., Gonz\u0026aacute;lez-Escobar R., 2023. Sustainability indicators and GIS as land-use planning instrument tools for urban model assessment. \u003cem\u003eInternational Journal of Geo-Information (IJGI) 12(2): \u003c/em\u003e42. DOI.org/10.3390/ijgi12020042. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eKarimov R. N., 2020. Assessment of sustainability of demographic development in mountain areas (on the example of Upland Shirvan region). \u003cem\u003eGeography and Natural Resources\u003c/em\u003e \u003cem\u003e1 (11): \u003c/em\u003e54-63. Online: https://journal.geonatres.az/en/2020-№1. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eKarimov R. N., 2011. Demographic and economic development of large cities in Azerbaijan. \u003cem\u003eInternational Journal of Business \u0026amp; Social Science. 2(24), Special Issue \u0026ndash; December: \u003c/em\u003e268-274. Online: https://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_2_No_24_Special_Issue_December_2011/29.pdf. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eKollmair M., Banerjee S., 2012. Drivers of migration in mountainous regions of the developing world: a review. \u003cem\u003eMigration and Global Environmental Change\u003c/em\u003e: \u003cem\u003eChallenges and Opportunities\u003c/em\u003e. \u003cem\u003eUK Government\u0026rsquo;s Foresight Project. \u003c/em\u003eForesight, London. Online: https://lib.icimod.org/record/27714. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eMashimbye Z. E., De Clercq W. P., Van Niekerk A., 2014. An evaluation of digital elevation models (DEMs) for delineating land components. \u003cem\u003eGeoderma 213: \u003c/em\u003e312\u0026ndash;319. DOI.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2013.08.023. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eMehraliyev E. G., Ayyubov N. H., Sadigov M. O., 1988. \u003cem\u003eIssues of distribution of population in the Azerbaijan SSR\u003c/em\u003e. Elm, Baku. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eMehraliyev E. G., 1984. \u003cem\u003eGeographical problems of formation and distribution of the population in the Azerbaijan SSR\u003c/em\u003e. Elm, Baku.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePanagos P., Borrelli P., Meusburger K., 2015. New European slope length and steepness factor (LS-Factor) for modeling soil erosion by water. \u003cem\u003eGeosciences 5: \u003c/em\u003e117-126. DOI.org/10.3390/geosciences5020117. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePashayev N. A., Ayyubov N. H., Eminov Z. N., 2010. \u003cem\u003eEconomic, social and political geography of the Azerbaijan Republic. \u003c/em\u003eChirag, Baku.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePashayev N. A., Karimov R. N., 2012. Ekonomiko-geograficheskoye issledovaniye vozdeystviya opolzney na rasseleniye naseleniya v Azerbaydzhanskoy Respublike (in Russian). \u003cem\u003eVеstnik Journal of Moscow State Regional University (Series of Economy) 4(3):\u003c/em\u003e130-139.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePawanjeet S. D., Helmer S. K., 2010. Erosion relevant topographical parameters derived from different DEMs \u0026ndash; a comparative study from the Indian Lesser Himalayas. \u003cem\u003eRemote Sens. \u003c/em\u003e2(8): 1941\u0026ndash;1961. DOI.org/10.3390/rs2081941. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePeper J., Pietzsch D., Manthey M., 2010. Semi-arid rangeland vegetation of the Greater Caucasus foothills in Azerbaijan and its driving environmental conditions. \u003cem\u003ePhytocoenologia 40(2-3): \u003c/em\u003e73-90. DOI.org/10.1127/0340-269X/2010/0040-0432. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePoA., 2023. Population of Azerbaijan. Bulletin of the State Statistical Committee of the Azerbaijan Republic. Chashioglu EI PH, Baku.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eRzayeva S. R., 2014. \u003cem\u003eWhat can the locals tell us about globalization? Land, petroleum, and moral transformation in post-soviet Azerbaijan.\u003c/em\u003e PhD thesis defended at the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University. Online: https://hdl.handle.net/1813/37126. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTanriverdiyev Kh. K., Safarov A. S., 1999. Relief and opportunities for rational use of it in agriculture. In: \u003cem\u003eConstructive Geography of the Azerbaijan Republic 2: \u003c/em\u003e8-13. Elm, Baku.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThornton J. M., Snethlage M. A., Sayre R., Urbach D. R., Viviroli D., Ehrlich D., Muccione V., Wester Ph., Insarov G., Adler C., 2022. Human populations in the world\u0026rsquo;s mountains: spatio-temporal patterns and potential controls. \u003cem\u003ePLOS ONE 17(7): \u003c/em\u003ee0271466. DOI.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271466. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eStadelbauer J. Utilization and management of resources in mountain regions of the (former) Federal Republic of Germany. \u003cem\u003eMountain Research and Development 11(3): \u003c/em\u003e231-238. International Mountain Society, Bern. DOI.org/10.2307/3673617. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSuleymanov E., Rahmanov F., Gojayeva E., 2021. \u003cem\u003eEkonomika \u003c/em\u003eAzerbaydzhana \u003cem\u003e(in Russian)\u003c/em\u003e.\u003cem\u003e \u003c/em\u003eUniversity Publishing House \u0026ldquo;Saints Cyril and Methodius\u0026rdquo;, Veliko Tarnovo. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eYetirmishli G. J., Ismayilova S. S., Kazimova S. E., 2021. Ismayilli earthquake on February 5\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e,\u003csup\u003e \u003c/sup\u003e2019. \u003cem\u003eGeology and Geophysics of Russian South 11 (4): \u003c/em\u003e58\u0026ndash;69. DOI.org/10.46698/vnc.2021.13.46.005. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"settlement, sustainability, demographic, rural, agglomeration, out-migration","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6776935/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6776935/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe economic region of Mountainous Shirvan situated in the eastern part of Azerbaijan with its weak industrial output and low urbanization rate is known to be one of the most lagging parts of the country\u0026rsquo;s territory. For decades the region experienced continuous out-migration, mostly from rural settlements toward Greater Baku area. With highlighting this overall underdevelopment and related vulnerability, the presented research comparatively explores how out-migrations induced by environmental, climate-induced and socioeconomic problems had an impact on sustainable demographic development of settlements in Mountainous Shirvan in the last few decades. Moreover, this research explores the current geographical distribution features of settlements by the region\u0026rsquo;s four rural districts \u0026ndash; Shamakhy, Agsu, Ismayilli, and Gobustan.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUpon the comparative analysis of the data of population censuses we found that over fifty settlements have experienced depopulation in Mountainous Shirvan in 2009\u0026ndash;2019 years, a process of concern in demographic sustainability terms. The analysis of recent demographic trends and the current situation shows that over fifty settlements with smaller or extremely smaller population size found in the studied region are in danger of disappearing in the near future. To study the characteristics of the distribution of settlements in the territory, influenced by various geographical and environmental factors and economic activities that are very crucial in sustainability perspective, the aerospace images were addressed. Based on this, GIS mapping of the studied territory in ArcMap 10.8 program was conducted through using overlay tools and geostatistical analysis. This included the interpolation analysis of the relief, the development of the land use map, the digital elevation and the LS-models for the studied region. The mapping allowed identify twenty-three rural agglomerations in the territory of Mountainous Shirvan.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Studying Sustainability of Settlements in Mountainous Shirvan","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-09 08:02:05","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6776935/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"e8dfa070-93ea-45a0-ad60-8f3dd31351d1","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 9th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-07-13T07:53:11+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-09 08:02:05","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6776935","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6776935","identity":"rs-6776935","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}