Learning evolutionary parameters from genealogies using allelic trees

Abstract Cellular diversification in processes from development to cancer progression and affinity maturation is often linked to the appearance of new mutations, generating genetic heterogeneity. Describing the underlying coupled genetic and growth processes that result in the observed diversity in cell populations is informative about the timing, drivers and outcomes of cell fates. Current approaches based on phylogenetic methods do not cover the entire range of evolutionary rates, often making artificial assumptions about the timing of events. We introduce CBA, a probabilistic method that infers the division, degradation and mutation rates from the observed genetic diversity in a population of cells. It uses a summarized backbone tree, intermediary between the true cell tree and the allelic tree representing the ancestral relationships between types, called a monogram, which allows for efficient sampling of possible phylogenies consistent with the observed mutational signatures. We demonstrate the accuracy of our method on simulated data and compare its performance to standard phylogenetic approaches.