Household Energy Rebound and Welfare Changes in China: Implications for Energy Efficiency Improvement

Household Energy Rebound and Welfare Changes in China: Implications for Energy Efficiency Improvement | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Household Energy Rebound and Welfare Changes in China: Implications for Energy Efficiency Improvement Guangqing Xu, Qing Zhao, Xinyu Li, Wendan Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7950287/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The energy rebound effect offers a perspective that closely links energy efficiency improvements, household consumption, and industrial processes. This study examines household energy rebound effects and welfare changes across different income groups in China. It reveals heterogeneity in direct and indirect rebound effects: higher-income and urban households, as well as northern provinces, tend to exhibit stronger direct rebound. Indirect rebound varies, but with consumption of residence and food contributing the largest strengthening and weakening effect respectively. The welfare gains vary across groups, but there is a “low income-high rebound-low welfare” trap in low disposable income and coal dependent provinces. Extending the analysis from five representative provinces to all 30 provinces indicates that a substantial number of regions may experience this trap. These findings underscore the necessity for policy interventions that prioritize fair transition while supporting decarbonization in industrial processes. Households Rebound Effect Welfare Energy Efficiency Fair Transition Industrial Process Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 02 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 01 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 28 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 17 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 28 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 26 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7950287","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":563571014,"identity":"beaddb0c-888e-40d6-a897-6a1282e1b83a","order_by":0,"name":"Guangqing Xu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCBAYGOQiLjQQtxiRqAYLEBqK1GNxIv3jj4Y7a9O0zkh8wfCg7zMA/uwG/FskZOcUWiWeO5865kWbAOOPcYQaJOwfwa+GXyEmTSGw7ljtDIoeBmbftMIOBRAJ+LWxQLekSIC1/idHCL5F+DKilJgGshZEYLZI9b5gtEtsOGM7geWZwsOdcOo/EDQJaDI6nP7z5s61OXoI9+eGDH2XWcvwzCGhhYOAxkGBgOAxmHgBxCakHAvYHQC11RCgcBaNgFIyCEQsAhS1BIjkcDFkAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Renmin University of China","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guangqing","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":563571015,"identity":"09ecd0db-f33e-48b3-a9ed-93a04e941749","order_by":1,"name":"Qing Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Renmin University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qing","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":563571016,"identity":"337b12f9-9f5f-4cd5-9c2d-47e81f4d3a87","order_by":2,"name":"Xinyu Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Renmin University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xinyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":563571017,"identity":"18b36078-80e6-46b5-bf86-df88b79bb2c9","order_by":3,"name":"Wendan Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Renmin University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wendan","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-10-27 11:09:54","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7950287/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7950287/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":98730170,"identity":"bfa9e686-f8b9-4c4f-a6bb-6f6d940805ca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:25","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":7132410,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"JIEManuscript.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/3a1d971a3efa9f3c6947c8ce.docx"},{"id":98776966,"identity":"bbd8e536-b8cf-4617-8a21-67edf1c57a51","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 12:24:43","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":5638,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"17bd921faa4343deabfb9a055ed0adcd.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/e43d79728ea9790d77f05889.json"},{"id":98776691,"identity":"31fed471-617b-4769-987e-457a7bbc9fa9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 12:23:19","extension":"xml","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":166712,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"17bd921faa4343deabfb9a055ed0adcd1enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/317fca3b205910462753ef8b.xml"},{"id":98730167,"identity":"3f7326db-a0af-480e-aaba-94a97ec0f627","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:25","extension":"jpeg","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3990013,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/5ce0b172a131702453d4fa64.jpeg"},{"id":98730161,"identity":"546e0ab2-a81e-4925-8236-a55d8031de6b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:25","extension":"jpeg","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3990013,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/5c6f1465035f7130b09072ae.jpeg"},{"id":98730168,"identity":"7dfa9438-1391-4961-9c07-0629f2670273","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:25","extension":"jpeg","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":725554,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/c63edc3624dd6ea9e8e86669.jpeg"},{"id":98730163,"identity":"05816eb9-ac05-4212-872f-082f5b886791","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:25","extension":"jpeg","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":448465,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/aab18e5e0b86529d7da5debb.jpeg"},{"id":98776948,"identity":"de363264-86b6-4f59-9ebd-54bcd24f9199","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 12:24:40","extension":"jpeg","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":822546,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/04effe92a7c645b050124f02.jpeg"},{"id":98730171,"identity":"b4bbad0f-8c2d-47e3-962c-0e46d042a862","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:25","extension":"jpeg","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1046582,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage6.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/f72e733f33b1c596621b9bab.jpeg"},{"id":98776582,"identity":"7b083fd4-bb12-40d2-8e18-d37a3840d70a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 12:23:09","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":599534,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/3b60380ece6b55750199902f.png"},{"id":98730173,"identity":"867f68cf-a0d5-46ae-a828-e36eed65f506","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:26","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":599534,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/867128d01d7e1330273a57f6.png"},{"id":98778839,"identity":"9195f76a-79ba-4e13-a6b6-5c3b38120b83","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 12:29:44","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":179920,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/37c61d12e3fc5c599e6a7fce.png"},{"id":98776589,"identity":"11d19e5c-7e64-4777-94ac-6826ef3daaca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 12:23:10","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":107206,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/6eab3bada897e8fbe1093507.png"},{"id":98730172,"identity":"4378fb09-f8e1-446f-8ee1-cb1c83b8b85f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:25","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":190936,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/8a3dea3366a54fc6291f877a.png"},{"id":98777065,"identity":"95de5007-acf1-4445-8c57-35bf268b87bd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 12:25:18","extension":"png","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":260114,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/a084c4154c8a6379852f93cb.png"},{"id":98730178,"identity":"52386a9d-238e-40a8-9c9a-3ef34e9335a9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:26","extension":"xml","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":163452,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"17bd921faa4343deabfb9a055ed0adcd1structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/592e4c42ec770d3c92bc0089.xml"},{"id":98730175,"identity":"e408b212-284a-45f6-8eef-89ffbf5c3140","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-22 05:03:26","extension":"html","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":183554,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1/b596bb5cfaa9b420146def8a.html"},{"id":99306820,"identity":"30278910-5ab6-43ff-9b21-e3dc83ee03dd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-31 15:57:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1061661,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"JIEManuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7950287/v1_covered_389e4ebe-74f2-4b9d-80be-7d9dfa9ad766.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Household Energy Rebound and Welfare Changes in China: Implications for Energy Efficiency Improvement","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-industrial-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"44498","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44498/3","title":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Households, Rebound Effect, Welfare, Energy Efficiency, Fair Transition, Industrial Process","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7950287/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7950287/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe energy rebound effect offers a perspective that closely links energy efficiency improvements, household consumption, and industrial processes. This study examines household energy rebound effects and welfare changes across different income groups in China. It reveals heterogeneity in direct and indirect rebound effects: higher-income and urban households, as well as northern provinces, tend to exhibit stronger direct rebound. Indirect rebound varies, but with consumption of residence and food contributing the largest strengthening and weakening effect respectively. The welfare gains vary across groups, but there is a \u0026ldquo;low income-high rebound-low welfare\u0026rdquo; trap in low disposable income and coal dependent provinces. Extending the analysis from five representative provinces to all 30 provinces indicates that a substantial number of regions may experience this trap. These findings underscore the necessity for policy interventions that prioritize fair transition while supporting decarbonization in industrial processes.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Household Energy Rebound and Welfare Changes in China: Implications for Energy Efficiency Improvement","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-22 05:03:20","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7950287/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-02-03T01:36:45+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-01T12:22:52+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-29T02:54:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"129559436563166525191431370667924185688","date":"2025-12-22T01:02:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"262894926737933883042877246799701352469","date":"2025-12-21T06:53:30+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-18T04:08:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-28T15:26:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-27T06:52:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","date":"2025-10-26T11:35:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-industrial-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"44498","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44498/3","title":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"067dda57-4782-4f9f-bf2d-32d2b24b0205","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 22nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-08T05:38:20+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-22 05:03:20","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7950287","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7950287","identity":"rs-7950287","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}