Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Industry Development Indicators in Ethiopia

Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Industry Development Indicators in Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Industry Development Indicators in Ethiopia Getachew Abate Dagnew, Ashenafi Abate, Demeke Lakew, Demsew Beletew This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819786/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Industry development indicators are metrics that are used to evaluate an industry's growth and performance. This study's primary goal was to evaluate the relationship among Ethiopia's industry development indicators using a multivariate time series model based on World Bank data covering the years 1982–2021. Method Annual data covering the years 1982–2021 were used in a time series approach. A vector auto-regressive model was performed for interdependency modeling. Certain elements of the relationships between the variables of interest are frequently analyzed using structural vector autoregressive techniques. Results The results of the vector autoregressive model indicated that the current industry growth is positively related to one period lagged value of itself, industry GDP and manufacturing exports. And also, there exists a positive relationship between manufacturing exports and the first lag of itself, industry growth and manufacturing GDP. For a 1% increase in manufacturing exports, the industry growth rate increased by 0.37% in natural logarithms on average, ceteris paribus. Conclusion The current manufacturing growth of Ethiopia is significantly affected by the first lag of industry growth, industry GDP, manufacturing exports, and manufacturing GDP. And also, there is a unidirectional causality from industry growth to industry GDP, industry growth to manufacturing growth, manufacturing exports to industry growth, manufacturing exports to industry GDP, manufacturing growth to industry GDP, manufacturing exports to manufacturing growth, and manufacturing GDP to manufacturing growth in the short run. Industry growth Manufacturing Multivariate time series and Vector autoregressive Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4819786","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":333597502,"identity":"32d61c61-3b40-4ef6-9798-f4a03d52f4f2","order_by":0,"name":"Getachew Abate Dagnew","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLACxgYgIQFiVdTIgagDD/CqZ4ZrAVJnjhmDtSQQrYWxjTkRxGbAp0Xevf/gh587bBL7Zzc/f/CBjS19ftjhh0Bb7OR0G7BrMTxzmFmy90xa4ow7xwwbZ/DI5G68nWYA1JJsbHYAh5YZyQzSjG2HcxtuJBg280iw5W6cnQDSciBxGy4t8x8z/2Zs+587/0b6x+Y/BszphrPTP+DVIi/BzAa05UDuhhs5hs0MCcwJ8tI5+G0x4Ek2s+xtS67feOdM4cyeA8cMN0jnFBxIMMDtF/n2g49v/GyzM5a73b7hw89/NfLys9M3f/hQYSeHS4sBhjhExAC7crAtDYRFRsEoGAWjYKQDABzva2NPZT8SAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Mekdela Amba University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Getachew","middleName":"Abate","lastName":"Dagnew","suffix":""},{"id":333597503,"identity":"5e12c402-2ff5-4984-b674-14a44ec6c31b","order_by":1,"name":"Ashenafi Abate","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bahir Dar University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ashenafi","middleName":"","lastName":"Abate","suffix":""},{"id":333597504,"identity":"df47287e-7f9c-4b61-9710-7826a13e5c0e","order_by":2,"name":"Demeke Lakew","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bahir Dar University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Demeke","middleName":"","lastName":"Lakew","suffix":""},{"id":333597506,"identity":"d931d666-8586-44b1-94e3-de2a89dd1e4e","order_by":3,"name":"Demsew Beletew","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mekdela Amba University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Demsew","middleName":"","lastName":"Beletew","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-29 07:10:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819786/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819786/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86258022,"identity":"fbcefa96-ef32-4f4f-b865-19bb00daef44","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-08 14:02:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":596289,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscrpit.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4819786/v1_covered_45880983-2e52-43fc-81ed-d9cb86ac5af5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Industry Development Indicators in Ethiopia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Industry growth, Manufacturing, Multivariate time series and Vector autoregressive","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819786/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4819786/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndustry development indicators are metrics that are used to evaluate an industry's growth and performance. This study's primary goal was to evaluate the relationship among Ethiopia's industry development indicators using a multivariate time series model based on World Bank data covering the years 1982\u0026ndash;2021.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethod\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnnual data covering the years 1982\u0026ndash;2021 were used in a time series approach. A vector auto-regressive model was performed for interdependency modeling. Certain elements of the relationships between the variables of interest are frequently analyzed using structural vector autoregressive techniques.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe results of the vector autoregressive model indicated that the current industry growth is positively related to one period lagged value of itself, industry GDP and manufacturing exports. And also, there exists a positive relationship between manufacturing exports and the first lag of itself, industry growth and manufacturing GDP. For a 1% increase in manufacturing exports, the industry growth rate increased by 0.37% in natural logarithms on average, ceteris paribus.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe current manufacturing growth of Ethiopia is significantly affected by the first lag of industry growth, industry GDP, manufacturing exports, and manufacturing GDP. 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