Insecurity, Psychological Capital and Ambiguity : Experiments in Eastern DRCongo

Insecurity, Psychological Capital and Ambiguity : Experiments in Eastern DRCongo | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Insecurity, Psychological Capital and Ambiguity : Experiments in Eastern DRCongo MUBERWA MISHABO Ferdinand This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7213310/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines the relationship between political insecurity, Psychological Capital (PsyCap), and ambiguity aversion in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Through one controlled lab experiment and two lab-in-field experiments (N = 643 total participants), the study tests whether exposure to insecurity primes increases aversion to ambiguous choices and whether PsyCap—comprising hope, self-efficacy, resilience, and optimism—mediates this effect. Participants were randomly assigned to insecurity-primed or control groups, with the former answering questions about local violence and criminal threats. Ambiguity aversion was measured via an Ellsberg urn task, while PsyCap was assessed using the validated CPC-12 scale. Results consistently demonstrated that priming insecurity significantly increased ambiguity aversion across all studies (e.g., odds ratios of 0.28–0.125), confirming Hypothesis 1. Insecurity also robustly diminished PsyCap (supporting Hypothesis 2). While higher PsyCap directly correlated with reduced ambiguity aversion, mediation analyses decisively rejected Hypothesis 3: PsyCap did not mediate the insecurity–ambiguity link (ACME = 0.000, p = 1.000 in all studies). This indicates that insecurity’s effect on economic decision-making operates through a direct affective pathway, independent of PsyCap’s cognitive resources. The study challenges theoretical assumptions by revealing that although insecurity depletes psychological resources and low PsyCap aligns with greater ambiguity aversion, the acute impact of insecurity on choices bypasses PsyCap mediation. This underscores the potency of direct threat responses in fragile contexts. Findings highlight the need for policies addressing immediate affective drivers of risk avoidance to complement psychological resilience interventions in conflict-affected populations. Development Economics Behavioral Economics Microeconomics Ambiguity Aversion Psychological capital insecurity risk DRCongo Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. This study was reviewed and approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of Université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs (ULPGL-Goma). All participants provided informed consent prior to participation. All procedures followed internationally recognized ethical principles for research with human subjects. All participants provided informed consent prior to their participation. They were assured of the voluntary nature of their involvement, their right to withdraw at any time without penalty, and the anonymity and confidentiality of their responses. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7213310","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":490804618,"identity":"b0481804-7a44-4979-9b5f-47d70acc09c7","order_by":0,"name":"MUBERWA MISHABO Ferdinand","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYGBokEEOsAAxsDQwWQwczcgFcLzwEULWdAWhiJ0MIA08LYBmIR0sLe+/DGwx12eXzXzpg9/DmvNpq/HajlR8U23Fp4jhtbJJ5JLpa8nWNuzLvteO6Mw4wNjD1nbuPUYi+RxiaR2MacuOF2jpk047ZjuQ1ALcyMbbi18Mg/A2mpB2uR/DnnWO58glok2EBaDoO1SPA21ORuIKiFJ43ZIrHteOLM22nlxjzHDuRuBGo5iM8vPOzHGG/+bKtO7LudvO3hj5q63HnnDx988KMCtxZ0cBhMHiBaPRDUkaJ4FIyCUTAKRggAANWgXVRBWztdAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Université Libre des pays des grands","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"MUBERWA","middleName":"MISHABO","lastName":"Ferdinand","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-25 10:37:53","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":true,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true,"humanSubjectConsent":true,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":true,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7213310/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7213310/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87889187,"identity":"56a73b9f-4fa6-40a7-aa4d-0f104c7e9cf2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-30 06:07:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":6668565,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Ambiguity18.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7213310/v1_covered_784dd460-2eca-48ef-8d51-73e650dc160a.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare no competing interests.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study was reviewed and approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of Université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs (ULPGL-Goma). 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Through one controlled lab experiment and two lab-in-field experiments (N = 643 total participants), the study tests whether exposure to insecurity primes increases aversion to ambiguous choices and whether PsyCap—comprising hope, self-efficacy, resilience, and optimism—mediates this effect. Participants were randomly assigned to insecurity-primed or control groups, with the former answering questions about local violence and criminal threats. Ambiguity aversion was measured via an Ellsberg urn task, while PsyCap was assessed using the validated CPC-12 scale.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eResults consistently demonstrated that priming insecurity significantly increased ambiguity aversion across all studies (e.g., odds ratios of 0.28–0.125), confirming Hypothesis 1. Insecurity also robustly diminished PsyCap (supporting Hypothesis 2). While higher PsyCap directly correlated with reduced ambiguity aversion, mediation analyses decisively rejected Hypothesis 3: PsyCap did not mediate the insecurity–ambiguity link (ACME = 0.000, p = 1.000 in all studies). This indicates that insecurity’s effect on economic decision-making operates through a direct affective pathway, independent of PsyCap’s cognitive resources.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe study challenges theoretical assumptions by revealing that although insecurity depletes psychological resources and low PsyCap aligns with greater ambiguity aversion, the acute impact of insecurity on choices bypasses PsyCap mediation. This underscores the potency of direct threat responses in fragile contexts. 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