The Spatio-temporal Patterns and Formation Mechanisms of Cholera Epidemics in Hubei Province , China from 1949 to 2020

The Spatio-temporal Patterns and Formation Mechanisms of Cholera Epidemics in Hubei Province , China from 1949 to 2020 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Spatio-temporal Patterns and Formation Mechanisms of Cholera Epidemics in Hubei Province , China from 1949 to 2020 Zhiyu Chen, Shengsheng Gong, Tao Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6881378/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background The global epidemic of cholera, a virulent enteric infection, poses a serious threat to public health and socio-economics. The rapid spread and high lethality of the disease not only cause large numbers of deaths and injuries, but also have far-reaching effects by disrupting production, increasing the burden of health care and impeding economic exchanges. Method Based on cholera historical and environmental data, M-K test, wavelet analysis, hotspot analysis, epidemic center of gravity, and structural equation modeling were employed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and formation mechanism of cholera epidemics in Hubei Province during the period of 1949–2020. Results Temporally, high incidence occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, with summer and fall being the dominant seasons. Four fluctuation cycles were identified: 55 years, 29 years, 19 years, and 8 years. Spatially, 71 counties and districts were cumulatively affected, with Wuhan and Xianning serving as the primary hotspots. The epidemic was distributed along rivers and lakes, and its center of gravity shifted southward and westward over time. Mechanistically, the spread was influenced by multiple factors, including natural drivers (temperature, river networks), disasters (floods and droughts), and socioeconomic conditions (population, GDP). The spatial and temporal characteristics of the cholera epidemic were influenced by the spatial and temporal scales of various factors. Conclusion This study will help to reveal the spatiotemporal patterns and formation mechanisms of regional cholera epidemics, fill the gap in cholera research in Hubei Province, and provide a reference for cholera prevention and control in areas with dense rivers and lakes. Cholera epidemic Spatio-temporal pattern Formation mechanism Hubei Province Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Table.xls Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6881378","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":478359466,"identity":"bc81ad26-861f-4016-887d-6cf39c9d4b1c","order_by":0,"name":"Zhiyu Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hubei Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhiyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":478359467,"identity":"481d733d-f982-438b-bb90-922594046e64","order_by":1,"name":"Shengsheng Gong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hubei Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shengsheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Gong","suffix":""},{"id":478359468,"identity":"6d8e0d59-0d87-40f9-a0f3-6bbcdc15d425","order_by":2,"name":"Tao Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAt0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACGyjNRoxiiKI00rUcJkGL/Pzmh58L287L88/uMWD4UHaYgX92A34tjG1sxtIz224bzrhzxoBxxrnDDBJ3DuDXwszGw8bM23Y7wUAixwDIOMxgIJFAwCsQLecgWv4So4UHouUARAsjMVok2NKMpXnOJRvOuJFWcLDnXDqPxA0CWuSbDz/8zFNmJ88/I3njgx9l1nL8MwhoQQEHQC4lQf0oGAWjYBSMAlwAAAdONncGnrR+AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Hubei Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tao","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-12 14:38:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6881378/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6881378/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91580512,"identity":"3ab91ad7-afec-42f5-8641-9acc1abf672c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-18 03:53:41","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1363111,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"2025.06.13TheSpatiotemporalPatternsandFormationMechanismsofCholeraEpidemicsinHubeiProvinceChinafrom1949to2020.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6881378/v1_covered_0ff654cf-4795-4a18-ab06-dacd032fe371.pdf"},{"id":85748772,"identity":"07bb5c86-b8f2-43fc-829c-190bd283b51d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-01 09:49:26","extension":"xls","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":56320,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Table.xls","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6881378/v1/d73eb6f7b443616d617223d3.xls"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The Spatio-temporal Patterns and Formation Mechanisms of Cholera Epidemics in Hubei Province , China from 1949 to 2020","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Cholera epidemic, Spatio-temporal pattern, Formation mechanism, Hubei Province","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6881378/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6881378/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe global epidemic of cholera, a virulent enteric infection, poses a serious threat to public health and socio-economics. The rapid spread and high lethality of the disease not only cause large numbers of deaths and injuries, but also have far-reaching effects by disrupting production, increasing the burden of health care and impeding economic exchanges.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethod\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on cholera historical and environmental data, M-K test, wavelet analysis, hotspot analysis, epidemic center of gravity, and structural equation modeling were employed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and formation mechanism of cholera epidemics in Hubei Province during the period of 1949\u0026ndash;2020.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTemporally, high incidence occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, with summer and fall being the dominant seasons. Four fluctuation cycles were identified: 55 years, 29 years, 19 years, and 8 years. Spatially, 71 counties and districts were cumulatively affected, with Wuhan and Xianning serving as the primary hotspots. The epidemic was distributed along rivers and lakes, and its center of gravity shifted southward and westward over time. Mechanistically, the spread was influenced by multiple factors, including natural drivers (temperature, river networks), disasters (floods and droughts), and socioeconomic conditions (population, GDP). The spatial and temporal characteristics of the cholera epidemic were influenced by the spatial and temporal scales of various factors.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study will help to reveal the spatiotemporal patterns and formation mechanisms of regional cholera epidemics, fill the gap in cholera research in Hubei Province, and provide a reference for cholera prevention and control in areas with dense rivers and lakes.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The Spatio-temporal Patterns and Formation Mechanisms of Cholera Epidemics in Hubei Province , China from 1949 to 2020","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-01 09:49:21","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6881378/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"f98c2d94-f49c-44bf-a092-e5efeabf1a62","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 1st, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-18T03:53:18+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-01 09:49:21","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6881378","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6881378","identity":"rs-6881378","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}