Habitat Dynamics of the Greater One-Horned Rhinoceros in the Changing Karnali Floodplain of Bardiya National Park

Habitat Dynamics of the Greater One-Horned Rhinoceros in the Changing Karnali Floodplain of Bardiya National Park | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 15 October 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Habitat Dynamics of the Greater One-Horned Rhinoceros in the Changing Karnali Floodplain of Bardiya National Park Authors : Bikalpa Karki , Aastha Joshi , Ajit Tumbahangphe , Ashok Ram , Prawesh Poudel 0009-0009-4425-8613 , Abhinav Malla 0009-0009-5226-3367 [email protected] , and Naresh Subedi Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176055679.94234733/v1 229 views 230 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Floodplains are dynamic ecological systems critical for the conservation of megafauna, including the Greater One-horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis). In Nepal, Bardiya National Park (BNP) provides key habitat for this species, particularly along the Karnali River floodplain, where rhinos were reintroduced from Chitwan in 1986. However, natural hydrological changes have influenced habitat dynamics in this region, most notably the 2009 channel shift of the Karnali River. This study examined Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes between 1990 and 2024 and habitat suitability between 2008 and 2024 using multi-temporal Landsat imagery, bioclimatic and topographic variables, and MaxEnt modeling. Likewise, the impact of the hydrological changes, following habitat change, on the rhino population was also studied. LULC analysis revealed increases in forest and grassland cover, alongside a significant reduction in water bodies and agricultural land. Habitat suitability modeling showed a 7.82% decline in suitable habitat, from 4,101.21 ha in 2008 to 3,780.27 ha in 2024. Key predictors included precipitation seasonality (Bio15), Distance to water, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Despite vegetation expansion, reductions in water availability, and possible grassland fragmentation, these factors may have degraded habitat quality. The population of the rhino after the hydrological changes did not show a significant increase, suggesting the negative impact of the habitat change on the population. These findings highlight the need for integrated floodplain management to sustain the mosaic of wetland-grassland essential for increasing the rhino population in the western Terai region. Supplementary Material File (main manuscript.docx) Download 3.92 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 15 October 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords description ecosystem natural history population ecology terrestrial vertebrate Authors Affiliations Bikalpa Karki National Trust for Nature Conservation View all articles by this author Aastha Joshi National Trust for Nature Conservation View all articles by this author Ajit Tumbahangphe National Trust for Nature Conservation View all articles by this author Ashok Ram Department of National Park and Wildlife Conservation View all articles by this author Prawesh Poudel 0009-0009-4425-8613 National Trust for Nature Conservation View all articles by this author Abhinav Malla 0009-0009-5226-3367 [email protected] National Trust for Nature Conservation View all articles by this author Naresh Subedi National Trust for Nature Conservation View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 229 views 230 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Bikalpa Karki, Aastha Joshi, Ajit Tumbahangphe, et al. Habitat Dynamics of the Greater One-Horned Rhinoceros in the Changing Karnali Floodplain of Bardiya National Park. Authorea . 15 October 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176055679.94234733/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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