Scale replaces device-level sensing in the dispatch of distributed energy storage

Scale replaces device-level sensing in the dispatch of distributed energy storage | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Scale replaces device-level sensing in the dispatch of distributed energy storage Hengyi Xu, Hongbin Xie, Haoran Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9605569/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract The global energy transition demands coordination of millions of distributed storage devices to balance renewable variability, yet every existing dispatch paradigm assumes that control accuracy requires proportionate knowledge of individual device states. Here we propose that scale itself substitutes for sensing. Beyond a critical population threshold, aggregate statistical predictability functionally replaces device-level information. We formalise this principle through a broadcast-only architecture in which a single scalar signal drives autonomous local decisions, reducing communication from O( N ) to O(1). Simulations with 5,000 heterogeneous devices reveal that aggregate response variability decays as \(\:1/\sqrt{N}\) , yielding signal determinism ( \(\:{R}^{2}>0.95\) ) beyond approximately 150 devices. Closed-loop dispatch achieves 98.9% curtailment reduction, matching 99.1% of a fully informed centralised scheme, and remains robust to 30% parameter mismatch and inter-device correlation up to \(\:\rho\:=0.06\) . These results demonstrate that large populations of unmonitored devices can be governed with deterministic precision through signal design alone, fundamentally challenging the information-intensive paradigm on which modern grid management is built. Energy Engineering Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files DocumentS1.docx Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9605569","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":634450542,"identity":"d7fdb4f3-bff4-402d-9f4e-0d63aeb4edf0","order_by":0,"name":"Hengyi Xu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7278-1208","institution":"School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hengyi","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":634450543,"identity":"9a063e67-cb5d-4176-a2a3-c80a8dc266f0","order_by":1,"name":"Hongbin 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Here we propose that scale itself substitutes for sensing. Beyond a critical population threshold, aggregate statistical predictability functionally replaces device-level information. We formalise this principle through a broadcast-only architecture in which a single scalar signal drives autonomous local decisions, reducing communication from O(\u003cem\u003eN\u003c/em\u003e) to O(1). Simulations with 5,000 heterogeneous devices reveal that aggregate response variability decays as \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:1/\\sqrt{N}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e, yielding signal determinism (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{R}^{2}\u0026gt;0.95\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) beyond approximately 150 devices. 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These results demonstrate that large populations of unmonitored devices can be governed with deterministic precision through signal design alone, fundamentally challenging the information-intensive paradigm on which modern grid management is built.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Scale replaces device-level sensing in the dispatch of distributed energy storage","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":2,"date":"2026-05-08 17:54:30","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9605569/v2","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":1,"date":"2026-05-05 02:05:49","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9605569/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"14be2157-503c-4f06-9cab-0c73ba5b29ea","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 8th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":67518921,"name":"Energy Engineering"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-05T02:05:49+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-05-08 17:54:30","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v2","identity":"rs-9605569","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9605569","identity":"rs-9605569","version":["v2"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}