Munich Goes Viral - The Oktoberfest in Times of COVID-19

With about 6 million visitors, the 2022 Oktoberfest in Germany has been one of the largest in-person social events following the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite high vaccination rates in Germany at that time, health authorities pointed out the high risk of getting infected at such events. Using a unique dataset, we estimate the causal impact of the 2022 Oktoberfest on the spread of infection by applying an event study design. Our results imply a significant increase in the infection rates during and after the Oktoberfest for middle-aged individuals. However, the case rate drops relatively quickly after the Oktoberfest. This suggests that the event did not trigger an Oktoberfest-wave. We also find no significant effect of the fair on the infection rates of the remaining age cohorts below 15 and above 60 years of age. A robustness check using the hospitalization rate as dependent variable confirms those results. Our findings have important implications for regulations of large social events in times of Covid-19, when the share of vaccinated people in the population is already relatively high.