Adapting to climate change: The case of saline-tolerant rice varieties in coastal Bangladesh

Adapting to climate change: The case of saline-tolerant rice varieties in coastal Bangladesh | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Adapting to climate change: The case of saline-tolerant rice varieties in coastal Bangladesh Shreya Kapoor, Barun Deb Pal, Shahidur Rashid This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8838430/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change-induced salinity intrusion increasingly threatens agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods in coastal South Asia. In Bangladesh’s deltaic agro-ecosystems, rising soil salinity has severely undermined rice cultivation, intensifying concerns over food security and farm incomes. Adoption of saline-tolerant rice varieties is a promising climate adaptation strategy aligned directly with SDG 13 (Climate Action), and indirectly with SDG 1 (No Poverty), and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), yet rigorous evidence on adoption drivers and welfare effects remains limited. Using farm-level survey data from coastal Bangladesh, this study examines the determinants of farmers’ adoption of saline-tolerant rice varieties and the causal impacts of adoption on rice yields and net farm income. Adoption decisions are analysed using a logistic regression model, and treatment effects are estimated via causal impact techniques like PSM, CEM and ESR. Results indicate that adoption increases rice yields by approximately 1--2 tonnes per hectare, corresponding to an average net income gain of about US $100 per hectare. These findings highlight the substantial productivity and income benefits of saline-tolerant technologies in salinity-affected areas and their potential contributions to climate resilience (SDG 13), food security (SDG 2), and poverty reduction (SDG 1), while supporting more sustainable agricultural practices. The study underscores the need for targeted policy interventions—especially improved seed dissemination, farmer awareness, and institutional support—to scale adoption and strengthen the resilience of coastal farming systems under climate change. climate change salinity intrusion adaptation SDG causal imapct coastal livelihoods South Asia Bangladesh Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8838430","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":607373283,"identity":"634a907c-254c-4b36-b5b8-5172d76e56b9","order_by":0,"name":"Shreya Kapoor","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCQYGxgYGBh5+9v6HD4B8Hj5itchI9pxhNgBpYSNWi43BjRw2CZAAQS3ys3sfMM7ccY/H4EbuscqvOXYybAzMDx/dwKPF4M5xA8aNZ4p5JM+8S7stuy0Z6DA2Y+McfFok0hgYH7Yl8PAdTzC7LbmNGaiFh00anxb5GVAtDAcSzIolt9UT1sJwA6hlI1CLwIkcM8aP2w4T1mIA1HJw5pkEHsmeY8nSjNuO87AxE/AL0GGMD3t3JNjzszcf/PhzWzWI8fAxXocBwQFQxIAAMw+YJKAcDGBaGH8Qo3oUjIJRMApGHAAAZiVHk8a29nYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Indian School of Business","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shreya","middleName":"","lastName":"Kapoor","suffix":""},{"id":607373285,"identity":"e634a15d-cf82-48b8-b78b-aebb90858cda","order_by":1,"name":"Barun Deb Pal","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"International Food Policy Research Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Barun","middleName":"Deb","lastName":"Pal","suffix":""},{"id":607373286,"identity":"c4bf92e9-1fb7-43fe-907f-c63e0c377fa9","order_by":2,"name":"Shahidur Rashid","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"International Food Policy Research Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shahidur","middleName":"","lastName":"Rashid","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-10 08:38:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8838430/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8838430/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104850213,"identity":"b35c9457-4370-4175-8428-e1afa9e250e6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-18 01:39:26","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":539503,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"BangladeshSalinity1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8838430/v1_covered_c522a7b2-4a29-412c-9758-f0c257bee46f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Adapting to climate change: The case of saline-tolerant rice varieties in coastal Bangladesh","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"climate change, salinity intrusion, adaptation, SDG, causal imapct, coastal livelihoods, South Asia, Bangladesh","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8838430/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8838430/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":" Climate change-induced salinity intrusion increasingly threatens agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods in coastal South Asia. In Bangladesh’s deltaic agro-ecosystems, rising soil salinity has severely undermined rice cultivation, intensifying concerns over food security and farm incomes. Adoption of saline-tolerant rice varieties is a promising climate adaptation strategy aligned directly with SDG 13 (Climate Action), and indirectly with SDG 1 (No Poverty), and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), yet rigorous evidence on adoption drivers and welfare effects remains limited. Using farm-level survey data from coastal Bangladesh, this study examines the determinants of farmers’ adoption of saline-tolerant rice varieties and the causal impacts of adoption on rice yields and net farm income. Adoption decisions are analysed using a logistic regression model, and treatment effects are estimated via causal impact techniques like PSM, CEM and ESR. Results indicate that adoption increases rice yields by approximately 1--2 tonnes per hectare, corresponding to an average net income gain of about US \\$100 per hectare. These findings highlight the substantial productivity and income benefits of saline-tolerant technologies in salinity-affected areas and their potential contributions to climate resilience (SDG 13), food security (SDG 2), and poverty reduction (SDG 1), while supporting more sustainable agricultural practices. 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