Regime-switching model estimates the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of the Arab Maghreb Union

Regime-switching model estimates the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of the Arab Maghreb Union | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Regime-switching model estimates the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of the Arab Maghreb Union Mariem BOUATTOUR, Salem KANOUN, Kamel HELALI This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5448227/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Journal of Evolutionary Economics → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines the non-linear effects of trade openness on economic growth in the five Maghreb countries—Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Mauritania—from 1990 to 2021, using the Panel Smooth Transition Autoregression (PSTAR) model. The results confirm the trade-led growth (TLG) hypothesis, but this relationship is only significant when trade openness exceeds a threshold of 98.145%. Causality tests support this finding, highlighting the need for trade infrastructure improvements and trading partners' diversification. Furthermore, promoting a comprehensive politico-economic integration between the union members helps the AMU to overcome its structural limitations and to rationalize the substantial end-proven benefits of trade openness with the rest of the world. JEL Classification : F14; C24. Trade openness Economic growth Switching model UMA Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Journal of Evolutionary Economics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 04 Feb, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Jan, 2025 Reviews received at journal 07 Jan, 2025 Reviews received at journal 30 Nov, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Nov, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Nov, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Nov, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Nov, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 14 Nov, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Nov, 2024 First submitted to journal 13 Nov, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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