Evaluation of SOC Change Scenarios in Cropping Systems with and Without Diversification Across Different Scales: Insights from a Northern Italy Case Study

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be effective in evaluating cropping systems and their sustainability. Diversifying crops within intensive farming systems enhances the en-vironmental sustainability of agriculture. The effect of diversification in the soil-plant system can be assessed at different scales, and the field represents the first assessment level. For this purpose, both measured and modelled point data must be extrapolated to the corresponding field and subsequently extended to the broader territory in which they are situated. This study seeks to evaluate the influence of diversified cropping systems on SOC content at territorial level. In Northern Italy, two crop management approaches — one incorporating diversification and one without — were analyzed. The ECOSSE model was employed to simulate changes in SOC content over a 30-year period of diversification, compared with monocropping. The results of the model, first run in available soil profiles, were upscaled to the field to which they belong; then, using a machine learning approach, data were interpolated at the landscape scale, extending the information to several land units with fairly uniform soil, climate, and management conditions. Achieving a thorough assessment of the impact of crop diversification at landscape scale represents a valuable tool to support decisions for agricultural policy makers and planners.