How does latent group structure identification enhance understanding of carbon emissions heterogeneity? A time-varying STIRPAT analysis of OECD countries

How does latent group structure identification enhance understanding of carbon emissions heterogeneity? A time-varying STIRPAT analysis of OECD countries | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article How does latent group structure identification enhance understanding of carbon emissions heterogeneity? A time-varying STIRPAT analysis of OECD countries Jinlong Qin, Xiaorong Yang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7597478/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding the structural drivers of emissions within heterogeneous groups of countries is essential for developing effective and differentiated mitigation strategies This paper focuses on OECD member countries and adopts a non-parametric classification method with latent group structure identification to reveal heterogeneous emission patterns. Unlike traditional approaches based on income level or geographical region, our method allows the data to reveal clusters of countries that share similar emission dynamics. We identify three latent groups with heterogeneous emission determinants by information criterion, each with distinct profiles of emission drivers. Importantly, the latent groups diverge notably from traditional classifications, thereby uncovering previously unrecognized differences in national emission trajectories. Our findings suggest that uniform climate policies may be insufficient in addressing the observed heterogeneity. Instead, targeted mitigation strategies tailored to each group’s specific structural characteristics are recommended. This study emphasizes data-driven classification methods to promote more effective, group-specific climate policymaking within the OECD framework. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Carbon emissions time-varying coefficients non-parametric homogeneous Latent group structure Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 04 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 02 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 07 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 26 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 02 Oct, 2025 Editor invited by journal 30 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 30 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 20 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 12 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7597478","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":528520410,"identity":"99589162-d6ef-41e1-a218-dbd5c8c0dbda","order_by":0,"name":"Jinlong Qin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Zhejiang Gongshang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jinlong","middleName":"","lastName":"Qin","suffix":""},{"id":528520411,"identity":"1ede9f99-3ea7-4ec3-bc98-5898e4034413","order_by":1,"name":"Xiaorong 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1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":128739,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eGeographical distribution of country groups and their member nations.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7597478/v1/13d291e2c2698c76b4f48a6d.jpg"},{"id":93715725,"identity":"b4f36b8a-aa5d-4526-afc4-4cab38430fda","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-16 19:37:31","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":172325,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe estimated coefficients for the three groups.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7597478/v1/8411e17b5c3ddd90776240b8.jpg"},{"id":93716827,"identity":"fd97695f-cedb-4658-89d8-504858df5844","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-16 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