Regression modeling of subjective probability of river inundation with epistemic uncertainty: a short-term panel data analysis

Regression modeling of subjective probability of river inundation with epistemic uncertainty: a short-term panel data analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Regression modeling of subjective probability of river inundation with epistemic uncertainty: a short-term panel data analysis Ken Hidaka, Mirai Ikegai, Satoki Masuda This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3344356/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Feb, 2024 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Lack of sufficient knowledge about flood risk can lead to ''don't know'' responses or non-response in risk perception surveys, and incorrect treatment of these responses can bias results. In this study, we focus on the possibility that the ''50%'' response option actually means ''fifty-fifty'' and thus reflects epistemic uncertainty in the subjective probability of river flooding; we conduct an analysis that introduces a concomitant-variable latent class model as a method to adjust for this. The results of the analysis accounting for epistemic uncertainty suggest that risk communication, such as simulated evacuation experiences and flood-related information distribution, has the effect of increasing subjective probability. Moreover, the proportion of latent classes with epistemic uncertainty decreased with each successive wave of the survey, thereby suggesting that knowledge acquisition and learning through the demonstration experiment led to a reduction in epistemic uncertainty. The analysis using the evacuation decision-making model also suggested that the introduction of subjective probability contributed to the improved likelihood of the model. These results suggest that knowledge acquisition through risk communication and short-term panel survey can lead to correct risk perception estimations and influence evacuation decisions. Short-term panel analysis Epistemic uncertainty Subjective probability Risk communication Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Feb, 2024 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major revisions 23 Nov, 2023 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Nov, 2023 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Sep, 2023 Editor assigned by journal 11 Sep, 2023 First submitted to journal 11 Sep, 2023 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3344356","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":233141629,"identity":"b189217c-774c-4ad7-bfcd-725448181e31","order_by":0,"name":"Ken Hidaka","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABC0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACA2YGA8YGBhsgkw0sIMMgAZFhJqAlDaLlAIMBD2EtDGAthzG14ATm7MwbP86oOR/Nz38sgflj2x8e/tntDxh+VDCwm+PQYtnMViy54djt3Jkz0g4wHGwz4JG4c8aAsecMA7NlAw6HHeYxkHzAdjt3ww32BrAWhhs5DMyMbQzMBgdwajH++eDfudwN549DtMjfSH9ASIuZ5Ma2A7kbDkAdZnAjwYCAFrYyy5l9ySC/JBw4c86YxxDol4M9ZyRw++X84c03e77Z5fbzHzN8UFEmJyd3u/3hgx8VNsm4QgwFHGBkgzIYGCSSDYjRwsDwB8G0I1LLKBgFo2AUDH8AAFsiX2e8Ku2MAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3098-6627","institution":"Toyota Central Research and Development Labs Inc: Kabushiki Kaisha Toyota Chuo Kenkyujo","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ken","middleName":"","lastName":"Hidaka","suffix":""},{"id":233141630,"identity":"5577aa22-a6b1-4525-b248-ae3725d7da0e","order_by":1,"name":"Mirai Ikegai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Toyota Central R and D Labs Inc: Kabushiki Kaisha Toyota Chuo Kenkyujo","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mirai","middleName":"","lastName":"Ikegai","suffix":""},{"id":233141631,"identity":"ddc9f0cd-7a1a-4c56-ac0c-aeb24809e7cc","order_by":2,"name":"Satoki Masuda","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Tokyo: Tokyo Daigaku","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Satoki","middleName":"","lastName":"Masuda","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2023-09-11 09:59:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3344356/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3344356/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06446-y","type":"published","date":"2024-02-27T15:01:40+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":51958262,"identity":"a49093b9-9db1-4100-83d6-457a03d3dc40","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-04 15:14:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":472573,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"23naturalhazardssubmit.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3344356/v1_covered_74516136-6ac8-439c-85f3-e4b04820decd.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Regression modeling of subjective probability of river inundation with epistemic uncertainty: a short-term panel data analysis","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Short-term panel analysis, Epistemic uncertainty, Subjective probability, Risk communication","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3344356/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3344356/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Lack of sufficient knowledge about flood risk can lead to ''don't know'' responses or non-response in risk perception surveys, and incorrect treatment of these responses can bias results. 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