The modus operandi of criminal networks in the Horn of Africa: human trafficking and migrant smuggling

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Conflict, inequality, and poverty fuel human trafficking and migrant smuggling in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Criminal groups exploit and coerce individuals via smuggling networks. This study explores how these countries address poverty, vulnerability, and weak governance. Using qualitative digital Delphi surveys and key informant interviews, gaps are identified, and recommendations are made. Strategies must be tailored to each country's context. Alongside long-term migration planning, a coordinated institutional and legal approach is proposed. The focus shifts from victim-centered strategies to enhanced border controls and human rights protections. Recommended solutions include improving aesthetics, fostering cross-border cooperation, strengthening legal frameworks, and building community resilience. Social science/Criminology Humanities/Cultural and media studies Social science/Cultural and media studies Social science/Development studies Social science/Politics and international relations Social science/Social policy Social science/Sociology Criminal networks human trafficking migrant smuggling migration routes Horn of Africa Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 INTRODUCTION The Horn of Africa has become a center for human trafficking and migrant smuggling activities. Countries like Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and Djibouti face significant challenges related to illegal migration, trafficking, and smuggling. Factors such as political instability, ongoing conflicts, and economic difficulties further exacerbate these issues (Nwala & Gesiere, 2023 ). As migrants undertake perilous journeys, this situation damages communities and diminishes trust in government institutions. Furthermore, the fight against criminal networks is hindered by weak governance and open borders (Tadesse & Tafesse, 204). Many migrants fall prey to criminal networks due to political unrest, conflict, and environmental pressures. Crimes related to migration tend to increase amid ongoing conflicts, economic instability, and limited legal migration pathways. People often undertake dangerous journeys in search of safety and better opportunities (Bullea, 2022). While they are frequently smuggled during transactions, migrants are often exploited, facing coercion, abuse, and commodification. Women and children are especially vulnerable to these exploitative networks (Poharvel, 2024), which manipulate their vulnerabilities and drive risky migrations. The distinction between voluntary and forced trafficking is increasingly unclear. Human trafficking and migration often target women and children through coercion and deception (Lelliott & Miller, 2023 ). Criminal groups exploit porous borders and weak governance in these regions. These challenges are being tackled through various initiatives, including the Palermo Protocol. Emphasizing sustainability and regional cooperation is vital for safeguarding vulnerable populations and restoring their dignity. The criminal networks operate across borders, deserts, and coastlines. While victims may no longer physically move, they still face psychological manipulation, debt bonds, and systemic neglect. The study explores socio-political factors, operational strategies, and the personal experiences of exploited individuals to reveal underlying structures. The principles of human dignity, protection, and justice are prioritized in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL LITERATURE REVIEW This publication provides a theoretical framework for understanding human trafficking and migrant smuggling. It combines insights from sociology, law, and psychology through interdisciplinary approaches (Bunina, 2024 ). The evaluation of human rights and state sovereignty is conducted from liberal, Marxist, and realist viewpoints (Williamson, 2022), while poverty and unemployment are identified as drivers of trafficking (Osakwe, 2025 ). The sociological analysis covers social stigma, organized crime, and globalization, which can be explained by Maslow's hierarchy of needs (Gupta, 2042). Beyond Migration Systems Theory (Alshaer, 2024 ), the Push-Pull Framework (Al-Khudairy, 2024 ), and Transnational Organized Crime Theory (Mzara & Jerry, 2023 ), four additional theories are relevant, including Structural Violence Theory (Mzara & Jerry, 2022). Each theory offers a different explanation of the causes, mechanisms, and impacts of trafficking, but a complete understanding remains elusive. Somali women face exploitation, and Eritrean teenagers are subjected to forced conscription (Mjaaland, 2024) because of inadequate protection for Ethiopian domestic workers (Asmare & Gobezie, 2025 ). This review examines the structural vulnerabilities and transnational crimes in these nations (NZAU, 2024 ). Somalia remains embroiled in conflict, while Ethiopia struggles to align with international standards (Webster, 2021 ). Women and youth are especially at risk in these areas. Domestic workers in Somalia are vulnerable to trafficking networks during ongoing conflicts (Smits & Wirtz, 2023 ). Immediate international intervention is critical to cease Eritrea's repressive policies. As a transit hub, Djibouti faces additional challenges (Cole et al., 2025 ). Consequently, a comprehensive, victim-centered regional approach is vital (Vusha, 2022 ). Strengthening regional cooperation, border controls, and victim services is crucial. Eliminating criminal networks is essential. Prevention, protection, prosecution, and partnership are key strategies. METHODOLOGY Research on human trafficking and migrant smuggling in the Horn of Africa uses qualitative, multi-source methods to analyze Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. It involves comparative case studies of migration and trafficking strategies across these countries. Data collection comprises digital Delphi questionnaires and interviews with key informants, whereas secondary sources include studies, government policies, and reports. A multidisciplinary, mixed-methods approach evaluates legal frameworks and stakeholder involvement through case studies, Delphi surveys, and key-informant interviews. Data from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and Djibouti are examined both thematically and comparatively. Thematic analysis reveals patterns of exploitation and policy gaps. Despite challenges such as limited access to primary data and political restrictions, snowball sampling is employed in Eritrea and Somalia. This approach provides evidence-based recommendations and enhances data collection and analysis, ethical standards, and trust in governance. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS This section presents findings from a comparative analysis of human trafficking and migrant smuggling across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea. Key aspects include an overview and methods used by traffickers; criminal routes linking Sudan, Libya, and the Gulf States to Ethiopia and Eritrea; patterns, trends, causes, and impacts of human trafficking; and gaps in data that hinder effective responses. Consequently, there is an urgent need for a regional strategy encompassing law enforcement and humanitarian aid. OVERVIEW AND MODE OF OPERATION Human trafficking and smuggling exploit the HoA to target vulnerable migrants aiming for the Middle East or Europe. Smugglers employ dangerous methods that can lead to fatalities, forced labor, and sexual violence. Regional instability and poor law enforcement undermine human rights, with traffickers preying on desperate individuals searching for better opportunities, causing widespread abuse and death. Human trafficking and migrant smuggling present different challenges to Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Eritrea mandates exit visas, and Djibouti maintains strict border controls. Ethiopian legislation focuses on international collaboration and victim protection. Somalia faces political instability and resource constraints that impede the effective implementation of anti-trafficking measures. Economic factors, unemployment, and limited opportunities in the HoA contribute to smuggling. Challenges include resource scarcity, weak law enforcement, long borders, political instability, and regional conflicts. The mixed migration section provides an overview of migration flows and human trafficking in these countries and examines key migration issues. CAUSES Smuggling and human trafficking remain critical problems in the HoA, driven by poverty, unemployment, and political instability. Weak law enforcement and governance enable these illegal networks to operate unchecked. Limited access to education and resources heightens the desperation of affected populations. Border patrols have intensified efforts, leading to more arrests and rescues of traffickers. However, efforts to combat smuggling and trafficking are hampered by resource shortages. Corruption, inadequate interagency coordination, and insufficient resources weaken enforcement. Trade routes and cultural connections facilitate cross-border movement. The African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development work to improve border security, while NGOs conduct campaigns to raise awareness and support vulnerable communities. Countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia face security challenges, economic constraints, and limited access to basic services. Trafficking is more common, facilitated by weak border controls and law enforcement. Political instability leads to conflicts and displacement, disrupting governance and hindering long-term planning. Poverty and unemployment increase the risk of exploitation. A lack of education worsens poverty and limits economic prospects. Systemic gender inequality further disempowers women, while social exclusion and discrimination marginalize certain groups, often driven by desperation. These factors contribute to malnutrition, infectious diseases, and inadequate healthcare. Addressing these root causes is essential to building resilience and sustainable development in these regions. Source: Author, 2025 As shown in Fig. 1 , the main reasons cited by 119 respondents for migrant smuggling and human trafficking are poverty (97%), unemployment (93.3%), and political instability and conflict (91%). The majority (97.5%) consider these issues as primary causes, with family pressure reported by 44.5%. Peer influence was cited by 68%, whereas pressure from neighboring countries was cited by 31.9%. Additionally, 68.9% mentioned the pursuit of a better life and false promises. Lack of awareness was a significant factor for 45.4%. Unemployment accounted for the largest share at 93.3%, followed by underemployment at 41.2%. Dishonest agents were blamed by 44.5%, and misinformation by 52.1%. Many respondents identified these as key drivers of human trafficking and migrant smuggling, also noting the involvement of a limited number of actors, including bureaucratic and policy issues. Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea face risks from political instability, armed conflicts, and discrimination. Finding resources, jobs, and protection from human trafficking is difficult. Political unrest exacerbates social inequality, thereby increasing financial vulnerability. Those seeking work or in desperate situations are often targeted by traffickers, increasing their risk of being trafficked. Armed conflict and instability force Ethiopian youth to migrate. Weak governance hampers anti-crime efforts, conflicts displace populations, and societal structures break down, leaving individuals—especially women and children—more vulnerable. Health-inequality traps, conflict-poverty cycles, and educational cascades create self-reinforcing systems. Multidimensional interventions are necessary to tackle these issues. People face challenges such as poverty, lack of education, unstable politics, war, and discrimination. Wars and political instability force people to leave their homes, and discrimination unfairly targets certain groups. Somalia's political instability, armed conflicts, and discrimination lead to over 50% unemployment. Many young people are at risk of migrating despite knowing the dangers of their journey, due to financial instability, loss of hope, and insecurity. Social exclusion and discrimination further isolate individuals, preventing equal access to resources. Economic instability in the HoA region stems from both natural and anthropogenic factors, prompting people to seek opportunities. This desperation can be exploited by unscrupulous parties, leading to increased financial insecurity and disparities. Income, employment, and resource gaps worsen these issues. Those in desperate situations are more likely to fall for deceptive job offers, especially during economic hardship, when they are more receptive to false promises. Initiatives such as financial aid, job creation, and expanded access to education can help mitigate these risks. Information gaps, political instability, human rights violations, and poor governance further heighten vulnerability. Overall, the unstable economy makes residents more susceptible to scams, exploitative jobs, and false promises. Source: Author,2025 Figure 2 shows that among 119 respondents, 104 (87.5%) identified economic instability as a primary concern, 55 (46.2%) cited disempowerment, and 54 (45.4%) pointed to social exclusion as key issues. In Tigray, Ethiopia, social isolation significantly contributes to victim exploitation, mainly due to barriers such as limited access to information, language differences, and a lack of advisory services. Victims often avoid seeking help out of fear of further isolation. Factors like racism, stereotyping, and geographic biases exacerbate this social isolation. Furthermore, government policies on the economy and education contribute to the deepening of social exclusion. Victims are cut off from supportive networks, making it harder to seek help or access resources. Separated from their families, these children become more vulnerable, more susceptible to abuse, and more dependent on exploiters, which makes escape more difficult. Community engagement, outreach programs, and confidential support services are crucial for overcoming the social isolation these cycles create. Source: Author, 2025 As shown in Fig. 3 , 99 out of 119 respondents (83.2%) believed in the media, 47 respondents (39.5%) trusted relatives or family, 45 respondents (37.8%) considered it part of their job responsibilities, 41 respondents (34.5%) saw it as part of their education program, and 32 respondents (26.9%) viewed it as part of their periodic campaign or public service for information sources. When victims stay silent, dependent, and unaware, it becomes easier for exploiters to control them. Reasons for social isolation include a lack of support networks, fear of stigma or judgment, limited access to information, and the belief that help is not available. Stigma related to feelings of inferiority and social exclusion stemming from cultural and religious caste systems leads people to seek better lives in countries that value these aspects. Migrant smuggling and trafficking are more prevalent among those with limited education. A small job market and lack of awareness increase the risk of deception and exploitation. Education is essential for recognizing and avoiding these dangers, helping victims identify risks, find safe opportunities, and prevent human trafficking and migrant smuggling. Lack of education, language barriers, and social isolation reduce victims' access to support, raising their vulnerability. Political instability further increases the risk by weakening social safety nets, restricting employment opportunities, and fostering exploitation. In Eritrea, political instability primarily stems from the absence of social and personal security, institutional protection, the rule of law, or civil society groups advocating for citizens' rights. When law enforcement and security are weak, people can be exploited. In contexts of political instability, criminal networks can exploit displaced populations through poor governance. In the HoA, political instability causes desperation, lawlessness, and weak protection, making vulnerable people easy targets for traffickers and smugglers. This is worsened by ineffective law enforcement, economic struggles, forced displacement, limited safe migration, broken education and awareness programs, statelessness, lack of legal protections, war, and child soldier use. Such instability leaves young people hopeless, raising their risk of falling victim to human trafficking and migrant smuggling. During these times, misinformation spreads widely, and accountability is scarce. Overall, political instability undermines laws, enforcement, and social protections, creating chaos and displacement that traffickers exploit. Lack of government protection, corruption, and conflict heighten the risks of migrant smuggling and human trafficking. To ensure a safer, more stable environment for everyone, these issues must be tackled. TRENDS AND PATTERNS Each year, human trafficking affects thousands of people in the HoA. Factors such as poverty, conflict, and limited employment opportunities worsen the problem. In Ethiopia alone, more than 20,000 victims are impacted each year. The region's proximity to conflict zones and economic instability exacerbates the issue, underscoring the urgent need for international collaboration. Source: Author, 2025 As illustrated in Fig. 4 , regarding the severity of human trafficking and migrant smuggling, 11 of 119 respondents (9.2%) rated it as 1; 6 (5%) as 2; 26 (21.8%) as 3; 31 (26.1%) as 4; and 45 (37.8%) as 5. This suggests that migrant smuggling and human trafficking are viewed as the most serious issues in their area, with most respondents expressing concern. On a 1–5 scale, more than 63% of participants rated these problems 4 or 5, underscoring the urgent need for targeted policies and interventions. Factors such as economic hardship, political instability, and conflict in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia contribute to migrant smuggling and human trafficking. The lack of accessible legal channels drives people to attempt to go abroad illegally, while weak law enforcement and porous borders create lawlessness, enabling smugglers to exploit vulnerable populations. These activities pose severe criminal and security threats to local communities. Resources are limited, borders are porous, and there is a lack of comprehensive legal frameworks. Trafficking networks are more difficult to dismantle due to corruption and insufficient training among officials. Human traffickers and migrant smugglers exploit people in these regions. Addressing the root causes requires a comprehensive policy and international cooperation. Since smuggling, human trafficking, and migration are secretive in these areas, collecting official statistics is challenging. Source: Author,2025 As illustrated in Fig. 5 , regarding trends in human trafficking and migrant smuggling, 114 out of 119 respondents (95.8%) indicated that these crimes are increasing. Meanwhile, two respondents (1.7%) reported that the situation remains stable, and three respondents (2.5%) reported a decline in these activities in their area. This data suggests that most respondents perceive migrant smuggling and human trafficking as growing issues, highlighting the need for increased efforts to combat them. The small percentage noting a decrease points to localized successes, but the overall trend indicates that conditions are worsening globally. The exact number of migrant smuggling and human trafficking cases in East African countries like Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Djibouti is unknown due to incomplete data collection and reporting. Sources include UNODC, STATAFRIC, IOM, INTERPOL, AFRIPOL, and 4Mi. In Ethiopia, 728 human trafficking cases were investigated in 2023, up from 498 in 2022. It is often challenging to distinguish between smuggling and trafficking. Additionally, the number of court cases is uncertain, as most migrants come from Ethiopia. The Tigray war has contributed to a rise in cases since November 2020. Source: Author, 2025 As depicted in Fig. 6 , the majority of human traffickers and migrant smugglers are unemployed (83; 69.7%), friends (57; 47.9%), relatives (47; 39.5%), and brokers (31; 26.1%). They frequently exploit vulnerable individuals to increase their profits. These networks thrive by exploiting gaps in border security and law enforcement, leading to millions of people globally being exploited, abused, and in harm's way. This widespread issue is worsening in Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea, which are second in the world for modern slavery. Eritreans crossing Ethiopia are exploited by smuggling networks. Migration from Tigray to the Arabian Peninsula occurs via the Afar and Djibouti. Despite the seriousness of the issue, governments often hesitate to collaborate on cross-border efforts. Many young people migrate to the Gulf, Europe, or South Africa, where they face abuse and exploitation. Weak law enforcement, corruption, and limited protections help traffickers operate, likely underestimating how bad the problem really is. Unemployment, poverty, conflict, and economic decline in Tigray make the crisis worse, leading to more human trafficking and migrant smuggling. Map 1: Migration route originating from the Horn of Africa Source: Author, 2025 As shown in map 1, people migrate from the HoA along various routes, both within and outside the region. Many move internally within their countries in search of employment or safety, while others travel abroad to destinations such as Europe and the Middle East. The Eastern Route, mainly through Yemen to the Arabian Peninsula, is favored by job seekers. The Northern Route connects North Africa and Europe via Sudan and Libya. The Southern Route passes through Kenya and Tanzania en route to South Africa in pursuit of economic opportunities. Each route has its own challenges, such as difficult conditions, exploitation, border restrictions, violence, and health risks. Djibouti serves as a crucial transit hub for migrants, particularly Ethiopians seeking employment abroad via the Eastern Route. Often, smugglers help these migrants navigate dangerous terrains. Obock is a significant port of entry into Yemen. Drought and violence in Ethiopia are changing migration patterns, with more older women, larger families, and unaccompanied minors involved. Eritrean migrants often leave the country to avoid military conscription and political repression, traveling through Sudan and Libya—both high-risk areas for trafficking. Economic hardship and insecurity push Ethiopian migrants toward South Africa, where they seek assistance upon return. Somali migration is driven by conflict and environmental issues, with many internally displaced and some trying to reach the Middle East and Europe, all facing similar dangers from smugglers and traffickers. Migrant smuggling and human trafficking are global problems mainly impacting people from poor, unstable regions. Victims often come from rural areas in countries such as Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, seeking better opportunities. During their journey through transit countries like Djibouti and Sudan, they frequently face abuse. Strict immigration laws funnel migrants toward traffickers, complicating escape from hardship. Criminal networks exploit vulnerabilities created by limited legal migration options, strict border controls, and difficult living conditions. As a result, human rights are violated, exploitation rises, regional stability deteriorates, and local governance and security are compromised. Addressing these issues requires stronger international cooperation and systemic reforms. Ethiopian transit points serve as migration routes from the Horn of Africa (HoA) to the Middle East and Southern Africa. Without legal protections, migrants face violence and rights violations and often rely on exploitative smugglers for assistance. Regional migration restrictions tend to push migrants toward traffickers who operate illicit networks. The HoA is significantly affected by organized crime and corruption related to smuggling and trafficking. Political instability and poverty further worsen human rights abuses and economic hardships. Several regional countries are collaborating to enhance border security, promote cooperation, raise awareness, and partner with international organizations to combat smuggling and trafficking. Table 1 The Human Smuggling and Trafficking Network in the Horn of Africa Country Situation overview Smugglers/traffickers: Modus Operandi Challenges to be overcome Djibouti Hub for Ethiopians and Somalis heading to Yemen and the Gulf. In the TIP Report, government action is limited to Tier 3. Across the Gulf of Aden, networks exploit porous borders and maritime routes. Smugglers often use deception and coercion to collaborate with traffickers. Weak governance is characterized by the lack of victim identification, minimal prosecutions, and the presence of informal economies. Eritrea Lack of freedom and repression cause high forced migration levels. Sudan, Ethiopia, and Djibouti are among the countries where many people flee. Border smugglers facilitate clandestine border crossings; traffickers exploit refugees. The recruitment process often involves promises of safety. Youth and conscripts are vulnerable due to state restrictions on movement and limited legal migration channels. Ethiopia Irregular migrants flow toward the Middle East and South Africa from this country. Unemployment and poverty drive smuggling. Djibouti and Somalia are smuggled via overland routes by smugglers; migrants are exploited in the sex trade or domestic work abroad by traffickers. Organized groups adapt routes. Corruption, poor enforcement capacity, and a large migrant population. Somalia Somalia is both a source and transit country due to conflict and instability. Yemen, Djibouti, and Kenya are among the destinations for migrants. Women and children, especially, are exploited by smugglers and traffickers. Smugglers operate through clan-based networks. The Gulf of Aden is a common spot for maritime smuggling. It is an ongoing conflict, the institutions are weak, clan structures are informal, and IDPs are highly vulnerable. Source: Completion Author,2025 Table 1 highlights the different roles of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia in migration patterns. Djibouti serves as a transit hub that engages in deceptive practices. Overland smuggling and secret crossings are common in Ethiopia and Eritrea. Clan networks in Somalia facilitate movement and take advantage of internally displaced people (IDPs). Using coercion and deception, traffickers can turn smuggling into trafficking due to weak governance and open borders. CONSEQUENCES Respondents indicated that migrant smuggling and human trafficking cause serious adverse effects on individuals, communities, and national security. Key consequences include loss of life, family separation, economic instability, and human rights violations. Victims suffer physical and psychological harm, exploitation, and trauma. The exploitation and resource loss also lead to increased crime, corruption, and economic strain. The breakdown of social networks and long-lasting damage continues across generations, especially among youth. To fight exploitation and prevent future crises, strong laws, international cooperation, public awareness, and economic growth are essential. Vulnerable groups in East Africa include women, girls, children, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), the urban poor, and individuals affected by food insecurity and drought. Their vulnerability is influenced by factors such as risk exposure, economic status, and social conditions. Eritreans face a heightened risk of human trafficking and migrant smuggling, driven by the national service proclamation, indefinite conscription, conditions like Wefri Warsay Yikealo (ወፍሪዋርሳይይከኣሎ) slavery, and widespread societal militarization. Other at-risk groups comprise low-income workers, the unemployed, homeless populations, the elderly, single-parent families, LGBTQ + individuals, and those confronting health, political, legal, environmental, climate, or gender issues, including former combatants. Ethiopia faces a significant issue with human trafficking and migrant smuggling, impacting children, women, and youth most heavily. Factors like political instability, economic decline, and social isolation worsen the situation, leading to abuse, exploitation, and mental health problems among victims. Many victims have died during dangerous trips in countries such as Djibouti, Libya, Uganda, and across Europe. Amid ongoing civil conflicts and economic struggles, young Ethiopians endure torture, exploitation, and hazardous conditions. Besides PTSD, depression, and chronic illnesses, unstable politics, economic hardships, and social isolation fuel these crimes. These issues damage community trust, promote organized crime, and deepen intergenerational trauma. Vulnerable groups face stigma, legal barriers, and manipulation by traffickers. Refugees and displaced persons often experience forced labor and sexual exploitation, which further destabilizes society and harms families and communities. Migrants’ perilous journeys frequently lead to family loss and trauma, putting their lives at significant risk. Migrant smugglers and human traffickers often endure abuse, trauma, malnutrition, and mental health issues such as PTSD. These issues, along with social isolation and stigma, impact both the individuals involved and society as a whole, leading to social crises. While some government officials recognize the problem, others show indifference or complicity. Although law enforcement and international cooperation have improved, significant challenges remain in implementing and sustaining effective solutions. The primary goal is to reduce poverty and facilitate the reintegration of returning migrants. Despite ongoing efforts, issues like youth smuggling between Eritrea and Tigray continue. Addressing these crimes requires strong legal frameworks, international collaboration, and victim support. Enforcement inconsistencies and negative attitudes, such as viewing victims as criminals, hinder progress. Protecting vulnerable groups from these crimes remains an urgent priority. CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS In the Horn of Africa, trafficking and migrant smuggling are prevalent in countries like Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia, driven by economic hardship, political instability, and weak law enforcement. These conditions make victims vulnerable to traffickers and smugglers. Many individuals fall prey to false promises amid economic struggles. Traffickers are rarely deterred by arrests or prosecutions, owing to ongoing instability and limited law-enforcement effectiveness. Raising awareness and education can help people identify and avoid trafficking schemes. Strengthening border controls and enhancing international cooperation are essential strategies for prevention. Providing employment and support to vulnerable groups—especially during conflicts and periods of systemic injustice—is crucial. Addressing the root causes of migration and adopting a victim-centered approach are key steps. Combating human trafficking involves using technology for data gathering, expanding economic opportunities, and conducting awareness campaigns. Sustainable solutions require comprehensive strategies, including fair resource allocation, anti-corruption measures, and better governance. Improving legal frameworks and law enforcement capabilities can help dismantle trafficking networks. Ultimately, education and economic development are vital for long-term progress. Declarations Approval and Ethics : • Anonymized datasets that are publicly accessible help safeguard vulnerable groups. • All research activities were approved by the Mekelle University College of Health Sciences' Institutional Review Board (MU-IRB2624/2025). The protocol received approval from the same IRB. Agreement to Participate: Informed consent was obtained from each participant before and during data collection. Conflict of interest: No conflicts of interest have been reported. Funding: No sources have funded either the research or this article. Author Contribution Each author made an essential contribution. Specifically, Berihu Teweldebirhan Gebresilassie, the corresponding author, wrote the main manuscript. Kinfe Abraha Gebre-Egziabher prepared the population analysis procedure. Tsegai Berhane Ghebretekle handled the legal and policy analysis, while Alemseged Gerezgiher Hailu developed the methodological framework. All authors reviewed the manuscript. Acknowledgement We want to express our gratitude to everyone who has supported us and given us advice on our research on human trafficking and migrant smuggling laws. We are especially grateful for the assistance provided by the Doctoral Fellowships at Mekelle University and TYA. We also want to thank our numerous community partners who provided feedback and assisted us with important conversations. References Al-Khudairy SI (2024) Theories of migration: Sociological and conceptual dilemmas. Eur J Sustainable Dev 13(1):31–31 Alshaer A (2024) Migration and integration: An integrative review of relevant theories Asmare S, Gobezie Y (2025) The Challenges and Experiences of Young Ethiopian Female Emigrants: A Study of Returnee Domestic Workers in the Middle East in Mekaneselam Town, Amhara Region Bulea I (2024) Human security in migration contexts and the role of institutional collaboration in crime prevention. 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Langaa RPCIG Tadesse GA, Tafesse T (2024) Exploring Drivers of Trafficking in Persons in the Horn of Africa with Emphasis on the Eastern Route to the Gulf States through Djibouti. J homepage: www ajids com Et 8:2 Vusha JL (2022) Border Management and the Implications on Régional Security in the Horn of Africa Region: a Case Study of Kenya, Somalia Border (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi) Webster SC (2021) Getting beyond politics and bad blood: the protection of Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia Map Map1 is available in the Supplementary Files section. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files floatimage7.jpeg Map 1: Migration route originating from the Horn of Africa Source: Author, 2025 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 12 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 08 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 31 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 31 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Gebresilassie","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAyA+zMBgwcDA3gDiWhCtRYKBgecAiCtBnBZmsBaJBBCfCC3m7L0PDxe2Scgb3Hx+dcOPAgkG/vbuBLxaLHuOGxye2SZhuOF2TtnNHqDDJM6c3YDfYTfSGA7ztkkwArWk3eABajGQyCWg5f4zsBb7DTfPpN38Q5SWG2xgLYkbbrAfu02ULZY9QIfxnJNInnkmh+22jIEED0G/mLMfY/7MU2Zj23f8+LObb/7YyPG39+LXAgcKB3hAccTAQ5xyEJBvYH9AvOpRMApGwSgYUQAAcLNJU83J1cAAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Mekelle University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Berihu","middleName":"Teweldebirhan","lastName":"Gebresilassie","suffix":""},{"id":580005005,"identity":"cb0aca40-60b9-4b99-b6d5-5191d48119ad","order_by":1,"name":"Professor KINFE ABREHA","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mekelle University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Professor","middleName":"KINFE","lastName":"ABREHA","suffix":""},{"id":580005008,"identity":"133b9851-33f8-4c28-b529-a73a7a1b5017","order_by":2,"name":"Tsegai Berhane Ghebretekle","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mekelle University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tsegai","middleName":"Berhane","lastName":"Ghebretekle","suffix":""},{"id":580005009,"identity":"9481d8da-7793-49b2-ad3f-719a1980eb3d","order_by":3,"name":"Alemseged Gerezgiher Hailu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mekelle University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alemseged","middleName":"Gerezgiher","lastName":"Hailu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-26 19:53:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8215882/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8215882/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101257673,"identity":"75cecae0-18bb-4277-b779-125fa332f490","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-27 19:24:50","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":141397,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSummary of the leading causes behind human smuggling and trafficking\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8215882/v1/3424bb622af03626b8d3b4b2.png"},{"id":101257685,"identity":"d8e57301-0552-413f-ba51-4f8fb2e3baf1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-27 19:24:52","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":77796,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDescription of the forms of isolation of human smuggling and trafficking\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Author,2025\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8215882/v1/dabea3ae91858c9c7500db5a.png"},{"id":101257695,"identity":"ff56b732-35fd-408d-b5a2-52e03d38689d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-27 19:24:56","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":160642,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAn overview of sources providing information on human smuggling and trafficking.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8215882/v1/4f92cf2bc0c0d698dc367f1e.png"},{"id":101257615,"identity":"72f8e9a2-6828-4b29-ae82-190db57d9dce","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-27 19:24:40","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":58869,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eIllustration of the levels of human smuggling and trafficking rates.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8215882/v1/7f798d98e38c8fa0fdfb4f61.png"},{"id":101257921,"identity":"81387936-aa95-4038-a161-f58a01d26c36","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-27 19:25:07","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":54623,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDescription of the magnitude of human smuggling and trafficking\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Author,2025\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8215882/v1/39f2ed130f0790107091c515.png"},{"id":101257646,"identity":"4e9d4a76-e8cf-4716-87ff-a88d00ab16d9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-27 19:24:41","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":243611,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eOverview of individuals involved in human smuggling and trafficking\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8215882/v1/c3be13ae91b9f5267497b779.png"},{"id":101297635,"identity":"ca33fc53-d7f6-4cba-a118-757781cce929","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-28 09:28:23","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1283766,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8215882/v1/fe39cc78-c261-4a3d-80f5-4cebb4bafc4d.pdf"},{"id":101257693,"identity":"c2575b0c-c77b-4bc6-b389-140e363f25f3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-27 19:24:55","extension":"jpeg","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":84715,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMap 1: Migration route originating from the Horn of Africa\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage7.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8215882/v1/fc7d586622da0bca7322ae0c.jpeg"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The modus operandi of criminal networks in the Horn of Africa: human trafficking and migrant smuggling","fulltext":[{"header":"INTRODUCTION","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe Horn of Africa has become a center for human trafficking and migrant smuggling activities. Countries like Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and Djibouti face significant challenges related to illegal migration, trafficking, and smuggling. Factors such as political instability, ongoing conflicts, and economic difficulties further exacerbate these issues (Nwala \u0026amp; Gesiere, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). As migrants undertake perilous journeys, this situation damages communities and diminishes trust in government institutions. Furthermore, the fight against criminal networks is hindered by weak governance and open borders (Tadesse \u0026amp; Tafesse, 204).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMany migrants fall prey to criminal networks due to political unrest, conflict, and environmental pressures. Crimes related to migration tend to increase amid ongoing conflicts, economic instability, and limited legal migration pathways. People often undertake dangerous journeys in search of safety and better opportunities (Bullea, 2022). While they are frequently smuggled during transactions, migrants are often exploited, facing coercion, abuse, and commodification. Women and children are especially vulnerable to these exploitative networks (Poharvel, 2024), which manipulate their vulnerabilities and drive risky migrations. The distinction between voluntary and forced trafficking is increasingly unclear. Human trafficking and migration often target women and children through coercion and deception (Lelliott \u0026amp; Miller, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Criminal groups exploit porous borders and weak governance in these regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese challenges are being tackled through various initiatives, including the Palermo Protocol. Emphasizing sustainability and regional cooperation is vital for safeguarding vulnerable populations and restoring their dignity. The criminal networks operate across borders, deserts, and coastlines. While victims may no longer physically move, they still face psychological manipulation, debt bonds, and systemic neglect. The study explores socio-political factors, operational strategies, and the personal experiences of exploited individuals to reveal underlying structures. The principles of human dignity, protection, and justice are prioritized in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL LITERATURE REVIEW","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis publication provides a theoretical framework for understanding human trafficking and migrant smuggling. It combines insights from sociology, law, and psychology through interdisciplinary approaches (Bunina, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). The evaluation of human rights and state sovereignty is conducted from liberal, Marxist, and realist viewpoints (Williamson, 2022), while poverty and unemployment are identified as drivers of trafficking (Osakwe, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). The sociological analysis covers social stigma, organized crime, and globalization, which can be explained by Maslow's hierarchy of needs (Gupta, 2042). Beyond Migration Systems Theory (Alshaer, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e), the Push-Pull Framework (Al-Khudairy, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e), and Transnational Organized Crime Theory (Mzara \u0026amp; Jerry, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), four additional theories are relevant, including Structural Violence Theory (Mzara \u0026amp; Jerry, 2022). Each theory offers a different explanation of the causes, mechanisms, and impacts of trafficking, but a complete understanding remains elusive.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSomali women face exploitation, and Eritrean teenagers are subjected to forced conscription (Mjaaland, 2024) because of inadequate protection for Ethiopian domestic workers (Asmare \u0026amp; Gobezie, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). This review examines the structural vulnerabilities and transnational crimes in these nations (NZAU, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Somalia remains embroiled in conflict, while Ethiopia struggles to align with international standards (Webster, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Women and youth are especially at risk in these areas. Domestic workers in Somalia are vulnerable to trafficking networks during ongoing conflicts (Smits \u0026amp; Wirtz, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Immediate international intervention is critical to cease Eritrea's repressive policies. As a transit hub, Djibouti faces additional challenges (Cole et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e). Consequently, a comprehensive, victim-centered regional approach is vital (Vusha, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Strengthening regional cooperation, border controls, and victim services is crucial. Eliminating criminal networks is essential. Prevention, protection, prosecution, and partnership are key strategies.\u003c/p\u003e "},{"header":"METHODOLOGY","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eResearch on human trafficking and migrant smuggling in the Horn of Africa uses qualitative, multi-source methods to analyze Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. It involves comparative case studies of migration and trafficking strategies across these countries. Data collection comprises digital Delphi questionnaires and interviews with key informants, whereas secondary sources include studies, government policies, and reports. A multidisciplinary, mixed-methods approach evaluates legal frameworks and stakeholder involvement through case studies, Delphi surveys, and key-informant interviews. Data from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and Djibouti are examined both thematically and comparatively. Thematic analysis reveals patterns of exploitation and policy gaps. Despite challenges such as limited access to primary data and political restrictions, snowball sampling is employed in Eritrea and Somalia. This approach provides evidence-based recommendations and enhances data collection and analysis, ethical standards, and trust in governance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis section presents findings from a comparative analysis of human trafficking and migrant smuggling across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea. Key aspects include an overview and methods used by traffickers; criminal routes linking Sudan, Libya, and the Gulf States to Ethiopia and Eritrea; patterns, trends, causes, and impacts of human trafficking; and gaps in data that hinder effective responses. Consequently, there is an urgent need for a regional strategy encompassing law enforcement and humanitarian aid.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eOVERVIEW AND MODE OF OPERATION\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHuman trafficking and smuggling exploit the HoA to target vulnerable migrants aiming for the Middle East or Europe. Smugglers employ dangerous methods that can lead to fatalities, forced labor, and sexual violence. Regional instability and poor law enforcement undermine human rights, with traffickers preying on desperate individuals searching for better opportunities, causing widespread abuse and death.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHuman trafficking and migrant smuggling present different challenges to Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Eritrea mandates exit visas, and Djibouti maintains strict border controls. Ethiopian legislation focuses on international collaboration and victim protection. Somalia faces political instability and resource constraints that impede the effective implementation of anti-trafficking measures.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic factors, unemployment, and limited opportunities in the HoA contribute to smuggling. Challenges include resource scarcity, weak law enforcement, long borders, political instability, and regional conflicts. The mixed migration section provides an overview of migration flows and human trafficking in these countries and examines key migration issues.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eCAUSES\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSmuggling and human trafficking remain critical problems in the HoA, driven by poverty, unemployment, and political instability. Weak law enforcement and governance enable these illegal networks to operate unchecked. Limited access to education and resources heightens the desperation of affected populations. Border patrols have intensified efforts, leading to more arrests and rescues of traffickers. However, efforts to combat smuggling and trafficking are hampered by resource shortages. Corruption, inadequate interagency coordination, and insufficient resources weaken enforcement. Trade routes and cultural connections facilitate cross-border movement. The African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development work to improve border security, while NGOs conduct campaigns to raise awareness and support vulnerable communities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCountries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia face security challenges, economic constraints, and limited access to basic services. Trafficking is more common, facilitated by weak border controls and law enforcement. Political instability leads to conflicts and displacement, disrupting governance and hindering long-term planning. Poverty and unemployment increase the risk of exploitation. A lack of education worsens poverty and limits economic prospects. Systemic gender inequality further disempowers women, while social exclusion and discrimination marginalize certain groups, often driven by desperation. These factors contribute to malnutrition, infectious diseases, and inadequate healthcare. Addressing these root causes is essential to building resilience and sustainable development in these regions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e, the main reasons cited by 119 respondents for migrant smuggling and human trafficking are poverty (97%), unemployment (93.3%), and political instability and conflict (91%). The majority (97.5%) consider these issues as primary causes, with family pressure reported by 44.5%. Peer influence was cited by 68%, whereas pressure from neighboring countries was cited by 31.9%. Additionally, 68.9% mentioned the pursuit of a better life and false promises. Lack of awareness was a significant factor for 45.4%. Unemployment accounted for the largest share at 93.3%, followed by underemployment at 41.2%. Dishonest agents were blamed by 44.5%, and misinformation by 52.1%. Many respondents identified these as key drivers of human trafficking and migrant smuggling, also noting the involvement of a limited number of actors, including bureaucratic and policy issues.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEthiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea face risks from political instability, armed conflicts, and discrimination. Finding resources, jobs, and protection from human trafficking is difficult. Political unrest exacerbates social inequality, thereby increasing financial vulnerability. Those seeking work or in desperate situations are often targeted by traffickers, increasing their risk of being trafficked. Armed conflict and instability force Ethiopian youth to migrate. Weak governance hampers anti-crime efforts, conflicts displace populations, and societal structures break down, leaving individuals\u0026mdash;especially women and children\u0026mdash;more vulnerable.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHealth-inequality traps, conflict-poverty cycles, and educational cascades create self-reinforcing systems. Multidimensional interventions are necessary to tackle these issues. People face challenges such as poverty, lack of education, unstable politics, war, and discrimination. Wars and political instability force people to leave their homes, and discrimination unfairly targets certain groups.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSomalia's political instability, armed conflicts, and discrimination lead to over 50% unemployment. Many young people are at risk of migrating despite knowing the dangers of their journey, due to financial instability, loss of hope, and insecurity. Social exclusion and discrimination further isolate individuals, preventing equal access to resources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic instability in the HoA region stems from both natural and anthropogenic factors, prompting people to seek opportunities. This desperation can be exploited by unscrupulous parties, leading to increased financial insecurity and disparities. Income, employment, and resource gaps worsen these issues. Those in desperate situations are more likely to fall for deceptive job offers, especially during economic hardship, when they are more receptive to false promises. Initiatives such as financial aid, job creation, and expanded access to education can help mitigate these risks. Information gaps, political instability, human rights violations, and poor governance further heighten vulnerability. Overall, the unstable economy makes residents more susceptible to scams, exploitative jobs, and false promises.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: Author,2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFigure \u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e shows that among 119 respondents, 104 (87.5%) identified economic instability as a primary concern, 55 (46.2%) cited disempowerment, and 54 (45.4%) pointed to social exclusion as key issues. In Tigray, Ethiopia, social isolation significantly contributes to victim exploitation, mainly due to barriers such as limited access to information, language differences, and a lack of advisory services. Victims often avoid seeking help out of fear of further isolation. Factors like racism, stereotyping, and geographic biases exacerbate this social isolation. Furthermore, government policies on the economy and education contribute to the deepening of social exclusion.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVictims are cut off from supportive networks, making it harder to seek help or access resources. Separated from their families, these children become more vulnerable, more susceptible to abuse, and more dependent on exploiters, which makes escape more difficult. Community engagement, outreach programs, and confidential support services are crucial for overcoming the social isolation these cycles create.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e, 99 out of 119 respondents (83.2%) believed in the media, 47 respondents (39.5%) trusted relatives or family, 45 respondents (37.8%) considered it part of their job responsibilities, 41 respondents (34.5%) saw it as part of their education program, and 32 respondents (26.9%) viewed it as part of their periodic campaign or public service for information sources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen victims stay silent, dependent, and unaware, it becomes easier for exploiters to control them. Reasons for social isolation include a lack of support networks, fear of stigma or judgment, limited access to information, and the belief that help is not available. Stigma related to feelings of inferiority and social exclusion stemming from cultural and religious caste systems leads people to seek better lives in countries that value these aspects. Migrant smuggling and trafficking are more prevalent among those with limited education. A small job market and lack of awareness increase the risk of deception and exploitation. Education is essential for recognizing and avoiding these dangers, helping victims identify risks, find safe opportunities, and prevent human trafficking and migrant smuggling. Lack of education, language barriers, and social isolation reduce victims' access to support, raising their vulnerability. Political instability further increases the risk by weakening social safety nets, restricting employment opportunities, and fostering exploitation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Eritrea, political instability primarily stems from the absence of social and personal security, institutional protection, the rule of law, or civil society groups advocating for citizens' rights. When law enforcement and security are weak, people can be exploited. In contexts of political instability, criminal networks can exploit displaced populations through poor governance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn the HoA, political instability causes desperation, lawlessness, and weak protection, making vulnerable people easy targets for traffickers and smugglers. This is worsened by ineffective law enforcement, economic struggles, forced displacement, limited safe migration, broken education and awareness programs, statelessness, lack of legal protections, war, and child soldier use. Such instability leaves young people hopeless, raising their risk of falling victim to human trafficking and migrant smuggling. During these times, misinformation spreads widely, and accountability is scarce. Overall, political instability undermines laws, enforcement, and social protections, creating chaos and displacement that traffickers exploit.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLack of government protection, corruption, and conflict heighten the risks of migrant smuggling and human trafficking. To ensure a safer, more stable environment for everyone, these issues must be tackled.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eTRENDS AND PATTERNS\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEach year, human trafficking affects thousands of people in the HoA. Factors such as poverty, conflict, and limited employment opportunities worsen the problem. In Ethiopia alone, more than 20,000 victims are impacted each year. The region's proximity to conflict zones and economic instability exacerbates the issue, underscoring the urgent need for international collaboration.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs illustrated in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e, regarding the severity of human trafficking and migrant smuggling, 11 of 119 respondents (9.2%) rated it as 1; 6 (5%) as 2; 26 (21.8%) as 3; 31 (26.1%) as 4; and 45 (37.8%) as 5. This suggests that migrant smuggling and human trafficking are viewed as the most serious issues in their area, with most respondents expressing concern. On a 1\u0026ndash;5 scale, more than 63% of participants rated these problems 4 or 5, underscoring the urgent need for targeted policies and interventions. Factors such as economic hardship, political instability, and conflict in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia contribute to migrant smuggling and human trafficking. The lack of accessible legal channels drives people to attempt to go abroad illegally, while weak law enforcement and porous borders create lawlessness, enabling smugglers to exploit vulnerable populations. These activities pose severe criminal and security threats to local communities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eResources are limited, borders are porous, and there is a lack of comprehensive legal frameworks. Trafficking networks are more difficult to dismantle due to corruption and insufficient training among officials. Human traffickers and migrant smugglers exploit people in these regions. Addressing the root causes requires a comprehensive policy and international cooperation. Since smuggling, human trafficking, and migration are secretive in these areas, collecting official statistics is challenging.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: Author,2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs illustrated in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e, regarding trends in human trafficking and migrant smuggling, 114 out of 119 respondents (95.8%) indicated that these crimes are increasing. Meanwhile, two respondents (1.7%) reported that the situation remains stable, and three respondents (2.5%) reported a decline in these activities in their area. This data suggests that most respondents perceive migrant smuggling and human trafficking as growing issues, highlighting the need for increased efforts to combat them. The small percentage noting a decrease points to localized successes, but the overall trend indicates that conditions are worsening globally.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe exact number of migrant smuggling and human trafficking cases in East African countries like Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Djibouti is unknown due to incomplete data collection and reporting. Sources include UNODC, STATAFRIC, IOM, INTERPOL, AFRIPOL, and 4Mi. In Ethiopia, 728 human trafficking cases were investigated in 2023, up from 498 in 2022. It is often challenging to distinguish between smuggling and trafficking. Additionally, the number of court cases is uncertain, as most migrants come from Ethiopia. The Tigray war has contributed to a rise in cases since November 2020.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs depicted in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e, the majority of human traffickers and migrant smugglers are unemployed (83; 69.7%), friends (57; 47.9%), relatives (47; 39.5%), and brokers (31; 26.1%). They frequently exploit vulnerable individuals to increase their profits. These networks thrive by exploiting gaps in border security and law enforcement, leading to millions of people globally being exploited, abused, and in harm's way.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis widespread issue is worsening in Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea, which are second in the world for modern slavery. Eritreans crossing Ethiopia are exploited by smuggling networks. Migration from Tigray to the Arabian Peninsula occurs via the Afar and Djibouti. Despite the seriousness of the issue, governments often hesitate to collaborate on cross-border efforts. Many young people migrate to the Gulf, Europe, or South Africa, where they face abuse and exploitation. Weak law enforcement, corruption, and limited protections help traffickers operate, likely underestimating how bad the problem really is. Unemployment, poverty, conflict, and economic decline in Tigray make the crisis worse, leading to more human trafficking and migrant smuggling.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMap 1: Migration route originating from the Horn of Africa\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource: Author, 2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs shown in map 1, people migrate from the HoA along various routes, both within and outside the region. Many move internally within their countries in search of employment or safety, while others travel abroad to destinations such as Europe and the Middle East. The Eastern Route, mainly through Yemen to the Arabian Peninsula, is favored by job seekers. The Northern Route connects North Africa and Europe via Sudan and Libya. The Southern Route passes through Kenya and Tanzania en route to South Africa in pursuit of economic opportunities. Each route has its own challenges, such as difficult conditions, exploitation, border restrictions, violence, and health risks.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDjibouti serves as a crucial transit hub for migrants, particularly Ethiopians seeking employment abroad via the Eastern Route. Often, smugglers help these migrants navigate dangerous terrains. Obock is a significant port of entry into Yemen. Drought and violence in Ethiopia are changing migration patterns, with more older women, larger families, and unaccompanied minors involved. Eritrean migrants often leave the country to avoid military conscription and political repression, traveling through Sudan and Libya\u0026mdash;both high-risk areas for trafficking. Economic hardship and insecurity push Ethiopian migrants toward South Africa, where they seek assistance upon return. Somali migration is driven by conflict and environmental issues, with many internally displaced and some trying to reach the Middle East and Europe, all facing similar dangers from smugglers and traffickers.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMigrant smuggling and human trafficking are global problems mainly impacting people from poor, unstable regions. Victims often come from rural areas in countries such as Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, seeking better opportunities. During their journey through transit countries like Djibouti and Sudan, they frequently face abuse. Strict immigration laws funnel migrants toward traffickers, complicating escape from hardship. Criminal networks exploit vulnerabilities created by limited legal migration options, strict border controls, and difficult living conditions. As a result, human rights are violated, exploitation rises, regional stability deteriorates, and local governance and security are compromised. Addressing these issues requires stronger international cooperation and systemic reforms.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEthiopian transit points serve as migration routes from the Horn of Africa (HoA) to the Middle East and Southern Africa. Without legal protections, migrants face violence and rights violations and often rely on exploitative smugglers for assistance. Regional migration restrictions tend to push migrants toward traffickers who operate illicit networks. The HoA is significantly affected by organized crime and corruption related to smuggling and trafficking. Political instability and poverty further worsen human rights abuses and economic hardships. Several regional countries are collaborating to enhance border security, promote cooperation, raise awareness, and partner with international organizations to combat smuggling and trafficking.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Human Smuggling and Trafficking Network in the Horn of Africa\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCountry\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSituation overview\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSmugglers/traffickers: Modus Operandi\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eChallenges to be overcome\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDjibouti\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHub for Ethiopians and Somalis heading to Yemen and the Gulf. In the TIP Report, government action is limited to Tier 3.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcross the Gulf of Aden, networks exploit porous borders and maritime routes. Smugglers often use deception and coercion to collaborate with traffickers.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeak governance is characterized by the lack of victim identification, minimal prosecutions, and the presence of informal economies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eEritrea\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLack of freedom and repression cause high forced migration levels. Sudan, Ethiopia, and Djibouti are among the countries where many people flee.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBorder smugglers facilitate clandestine border crossings; traffickers exploit refugees. The recruitment process often involves promises of safety.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYouth and conscripts are vulnerable due to state restrictions on movement and limited legal migration channels.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eEthiopia\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIrregular migrants flow toward the Middle East and South Africa from this country. Unemployment and poverty drive smuggling.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDjibouti and Somalia are smuggled via overland routes by smugglers; migrants are exploited in the sex trade or domestic work abroad by traffickers. Organized groups adapt routes.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorruption, poor enforcement capacity, and a large migrant population.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSomalia\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSomalia is both a source and transit country due to conflict and instability. Yemen, Djibouti, and Kenya are among the destinations for migrants.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWomen and children, especially, are exploited by smugglers and traffickers. Smugglers operate through clan-based networks. The Gulf of Aden is a common spot for maritime smuggling.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt is an ongoing conflict, the institutions are weak, clan structures are informal, and IDPs are highly vulnerable.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eSource: Completion Author,2025\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e highlights the different roles of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia in migration patterns. Djibouti serves as a transit hub that engages in deceptive practices. Overland smuggling and secret crossings are common in Ethiopia and Eritrea. Clan networks in Somalia facilitate movement and take advantage of internally displaced people (IDPs). Using coercion and deception, traffickers can turn smuggling into trafficking due to weak governance and open borders.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eCONSEQUENCES\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents indicated that migrant smuggling and human trafficking cause serious adverse effects on individuals, communities, and national security. Key consequences include loss of life, family separation, economic instability, and human rights violations. Victims suffer physical and psychological harm, exploitation, and trauma. The exploitation and resource loss also lead to increased crime, corruption, and economic strain. The breakdown of social networks and long-lasting damage continues across generations, especially among youth. To fight exploitation and prevent future crises, strong laws, international cooperation, public awareness, and economic growth are essential.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVulnerable groups in East Africa include women, girls, children, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), the urban poor, and individuals affected by food insecurity and drought. Their vulnerability is influenced by factors such as risk exposure, economic status, and social conditions. Eritreans face a heightened risk of human trafficking and migrant smuggling, driven by the national service proclamation, indefinite conscription, conditions like Wefri Warsay Yikealo (ወፍሪዋርሳይይከኣሎ) slavery, and widespread societal militarization. Other at-risk groups comprise low-income workers, the unemployed, homeless populations, the elderly, single-parent families, LGBTQ\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;individuals, and those confronting health, political, legal, environmental, climate, or gender issues, including former combatants.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEthiopia faces a significant issue with human trafficking and migrant smuggling, impacting children, women, and youth most heavily. Factors like political instability, economic decline, and social isolation worsen the situation, leading to abuse, exploitation, and mental health problems among victims. Many victims have died during dangerous trips in countries such as Djibouti, Libya, Uganda, and across Europe. Amid ongoing civil conflicts and economic struggles, young Ethiopians endure torture, exploitation, and hazardous conditions. Besides PTSD, depression, and chronic illnesses, unstable politics, economic hardships, and social isolation fuel these crimes. These issues damage community trust, promote organized crime, and deepen intergenerational trauma. Vulnerable groups face stigma, legal barriers, and manipulation by traffickers. Refugees and displaced persons often experience forced labor and sexual exploitation, which further destabilizes society and harms families and communities. Migrants\u0026rsquo; perilous journeys frequently lead to family loss and trauma, putting their lives at significant risk.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMigrant smugglers and human traffickers often endure abuse, trauma, malnutrition, and mental health issues such as PTSD. These issues, along with social isolation and stigma, impact both the individuals involved and society as a whole, leading to social crises. While some government officials recognize the problem, others show indifference or complicity. Although law enforcement and international cooperation have improved, significant challenges remain in implementing and sustaining effective solutions. The primary goal is to reduce poverty and facilitate the reintegration of returning migrants. Despite ongoing efforts, issues like youth smuggling between Eritrea and Tigray continue. Addressing these crimes requires strong legal frameworks, international collaboration, and victim support. Enforcement inconsistencies and negative attitudes, such as viewing victims as criminals, hinder progress. Protecting vulnerable groups from these crimes remains an urgent priority.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn the Horn of Africa, trafficking and migrant smuggling are prevalent in countries like Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia, driven by economic hardship, political instability, and weak law enforcement. These conditions make victims vulnerable to traffickers and smugglers. Many individuals fall prey to false promises amid economic struggles. Traffickers are rarely deterred by arrests or prosecutions, owing to ongoing instability and limited law-enforcement effectiveness. Raising awareness and education can help people identify and avoid trafficking schemes. Strengthening border controls and enhancing international cooperation are essential strategies for prevention. Providing employment and support to vulnerable groups\u0026mdash;especially during conflicts and periods of systemic injustice\u0026mdash;is crucial. Addressing the root causes of migration and adopting a victim-centered approach are key steps. Combating human trafficking involves using technology for data gathering, expanding economic opportunities, and conducting awareness campaigns. Sustainable solutions require comprehensive strategies, including fair resource allocation, anti-corruption measures, and better governance. Improving legal frameworks and law enforcement capabilities can help dismantle trafficking networks. Ultimately, education and economic development are vital for long-term progress.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eApproval and Ethics\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026bull; Anonymized datasets that are publicly accessible help safeguard vulnerable groups.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u0026bull; All research activities were approved by the Mekelle University College of Health Sciences' Institutional Review Board (MU-IRB2624/2025). The protocol received approval from the same IRB.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgreement to Participate:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eInformed consent\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003ewas obtained from each participant before and during data collection.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eConflict of interest:\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eNo conflicts of interest have been reported.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eFunding:\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eNo sources have funded either the research or this article.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eEach author made an essential contribution. Specifically, Berihu Teweldebirhan Gebresilassie, the corresponding author, wrote the main manuscript. Kinfe Abraha Gebre-Egziabher prepared the population analysis procedure. Tsegai Berhane Ghebretekle handled the legal and policy analysis, while Alemseged Gerezgiher Hailu developed the methodological framework. All authors reviewed the manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAcknowledgement\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe want to express our gratitude to everyone who has supported us and given us advice on our research on human trafficking and migrant smuggling laws. We are especially grateful for the assistance provided by the Doctoral Fellowships at Mekelle University and TYA. We also want to thank our numerous community partners who provided feedback and assisted us with important conversations.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAl-Khudairy SI (2024) Theories of migration: Sociological and conceptual dilemmas. Eur J Sustainable Dev 13(1):31\u0026ndash;31\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAlshaer A (2024) Migration and integration: An integrative review of relevant theories\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAsmare S, Gobezie Y (2025) The Challenges and Experiences of Young Ethiopian Female Emigrants: A Study of Returnee Domestic Workers in the Middle East in Mekaneselam Town, Amhara Region\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eBulea I (2024) Human security in migration contexts and the role of institutional collaboration in crime prevention. Studia Securitatis 18(2):35\u0026ndash;44\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eBunina M (2024) Human trafficking: A multidisciplinary approach to address biases within the American legal system\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eCole G, Belloni M, Tesfai A (2025) What is next? Eritrean displacement amidst shrinking refugee spaces\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eGupta YK (2024) Analyzing crime from a sociological viewpoint. Int J Dynamic Educational Res Soc 5(2):47\u0026ndash;56\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eHupp Williamson S (2022) Human trafficking in the era of global migration: The effects of neoliberal economic policies. Policy\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eLelliott J, Miller R (2023) Connecting corruption, migrant smuggling, and human trafficking in Southeast Asia. Migration in Southeast Asia: IMISCOE Regional Reader. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 195\u0026ndash;215\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMjaaland T (2024, January) Refugees as development actors: dignity or denial of responsibility? The case of Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia. Forum for Development Studies, vol 51. Routledge, pp 1\u0026ndash;23. 1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMzara S, Jerry M (2023) Understanding human migration dynamics: A theoretical investigation. Int J Acc Finance Auditing Manage Econ 4:553\u0026ndash;571 (6\u0026thinsp;\u0026ndash;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eNwala P, Gesiere L (2023) Causes and effects of transnational smuggling and illegal migration in Africa. Kashere Journal of Politics and International Relations, 1(2).\u003cem\u003e1\u003c/em\u003e(2)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eNzau M (2024) Migration Trends and Organized Transnational Crime in Twenty-First-Century Eastern Africa: A Critical Analysis. Understanding the Horizontal and Vertical Nature of African Migration in Contemporary Times. Springer Nature Singapore, Singapore, pp 175\u0026ndash;194\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOsakwe AU (2025) A Crisis in the Making: Strict Migration Policies Fuel Human Trafficking. Open Access J Ped Res 2(2):1\u0026ndash;7\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003ePokharel G (2024) A Study on the Smuggling of Migrants. As Transnational Organized Crime in Nepal\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSmits K, Wirtz M (2023) Escaping Eritrea: The Vulnerability of Eritreans to Human Trafficking. In \u003cem\u003eEnslaved: Trapped and Trafficked in Digital Black Holes: Human Trafficking Trajectories to Libya.\u003c/em\u003e (pp. 255\u0026ndash;295). Langaa RPCIG\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eTadesse GA, Tafesse T (2024) Exploring Drivers of Trafficking in Persons in the Horn of Africa with Emphasis on the Eastern Route to the Gulf States through Djibouti. J homepage: www ajids com Et 8:2\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eVusha JL (2022) \u003cem\u003eBorder Management and the Implications on R\u0026eacute;gional Security in the Horn of Africa Region: a Case Study of Kenya, Somalia Border\u003c/em\u003e (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eWebster SC (2021) Getting beyond politics and bad blood: the protection of Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"},{"header":"Map","content":"\u003cp\u003eMap1 is available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Criminal networks, human trafficking, migrant smuggling, migration routes, Horn of Africa","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8215882/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8215882/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe Horn of Africa faces challenges such as poverty and vulnerability, driven by poor governance and organized crime. Conflict, inequality, and poverty fuel human trafficking and migrant smuggling in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. Criminal groups exploit and coerce individuals via smuggling networks. This study explores how these countries address poverty, vulnerability, and weak governance. Using qualitative digital Delphi surveys and key informant interviews, gaps are identified, and recommendations are made. Strategies must be tailored to each country's context. Alongside long-term migration planning, a coordinated institutional and legal approach is proposed. The focus shifts from victim-centered strategies to enhanced border controls and human rights protections. Recommended solutions include improving aesthetics, fostering cross-border cooperation, strengthening legal frameworks, and building community resilience.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The modus operandi of criminal networks in the Horn of Africa: human trafficking and migrant smuggling","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-27 19:24:09","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8215882/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"90441905273132214023026296027391405347","date":"2026-01-25T08:40:33+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"40904791104181360076202729834091338304","date":"2026-01-22T06:51:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-01-20T06:28:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-01-12T23:26:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-01-08T08:56:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-12-31T18:13:15+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","date":"2025-12-31T18:09:53+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"2f9e144a-3d86-4bc4-8868-9e7bc6d2d215","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 27th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":61709194,"name":"Social science/Criminology"},{"id":61709195,"name":"Humanities/Cultural and media studies"},{"id":61709196,"name":"Social science/Cultural and media studies"},{"id":61709197,"name":"Social science/Development studies"},{"id":61709198,"name":"Social science/Politics and international relations"},{"id":61709199,"name":"Social science/Social policy"},{"id":61709200,"name":"Social science/Sociology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-27T19:24:09+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-27 19:24:09","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8215882","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8215882","identity":"rs-8215882","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}