Estimating the Impacts of Land Use Land Cover Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Adabay Watershed, Blue Nile Basin of the Ethiopian Highlands

Estimating the Impacts of Land Use Land Cover Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Adabay Watershed, Blue Nile Basin of the Ethiopian Highlands | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Estimating the Impacts of Land Use Land Cover Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Adabay Watershed, Blue Nile Basin of the Ethiopian Highlands meaza alemu, Teshome Sorommesa, Wondimagegn Mengist This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9415033/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 21 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Ecosystems offer diverse contributions essential for quality of life. Accurately estimating these diverse services are vital for inform policy makers at various levels. This study set out to examine the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) on the ecosystem service value (ESV) within the Adabay Watersheds. It covered from 1994–2024 and projected to 2034 and 2044. Eight LULC types were recognized by means of supervised image classification using maximum likelihood classification (MLC) method in the Arc GIS 10.8. The result showed an increase in crop land from (31.47%) to (44.44%), barren land increasing from (18.39%) to (22.26%), and settlements increased from (0.59%) to (5.29%) from 1994 to 2024. However, in the study time, grass land declined from 14.56% to 5.40%, water bodies experienced a slight decline from (0.04%) to (0.02%), shrub and bush areas dropped from (29.85%) to (7.16%), forest cover and woodland reduced from (0.55%) to (0.22%) and (1.45%) to (1.19%), respectively. The swift changes in LULC have led to a decrease in total ESV, dropping from $ 1,207.52 million in 1994 to $ 1,114.01 million in 2004, further declining to $ 1,060.05 million in 2014, and reaching $ 1,002.80 million in 2024. Nonetheless, the projected ESV is expected to show a slight recovery, increasing to $ 1,252.92 million by 2034 and $ 1,387.76 million by 2044. The insights gained from this study may be instrumental in raising awareness about the effects of LULC changes on ESV. Therefore, the watershed needs integrated watershed management strategies to enhance the natural vegetation. Adabay watershed ESV LULC change Maximum likelihood classification Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 19 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 19 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 19 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 17 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 22 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 22 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 17 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 17 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 14 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9415033","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":629161703,"identity":"516ca746-e825-48f6-ba93-41c3107c2c22","order_by":0,"name":"meaza alemu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACCyBmbHzwgcEGzDhAhBYJIGZuNpyRkAbS0kCsFvY2aZ6Ew2AuXi267c2PP/yokZDTnZHYIDnzx3m7te2HgbbU2ETj0mJ25piBYc8xCWOzG4kNBh8SbidvO5MI1HIsLbcBl5YbCQYJPGwSiduAWhJnALWYHQBqYWw4jFvL/ecfDv75J1EP0nKYJ+Fcstn5hwS03OAxbOZtk0gAOqyxmSfhgB3Ihfi1nMkpZpbtkzDcduZhM+OMtGSgXqAtCfj8cvz45o9vvtnImx1Pf/7jg42dvdn59IcPPtTY4NSCARLBKhOIVQ4C9qQoHgWjYBSMgpEBAB5IbHxsg0RvAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Debre Berhan University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"meaza","middleName":"","lastName":"alemu","suffix":""},{"id":629161704,"identity":"c3dfbd15-be38-49fb-8896-5c4af0a32bb6","order_by":1,"name":"Teshome Sorommesa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Teshome","middleName":"","lastName":"Sorommesa","suffix":""},{"id":629161705,"identity":"30ddc8f5-f392-4d07-8f81-41ceb7f0bc75","order_by":2,"name":"Wondimagegn Mengist","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Debre Berhan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wondimagegn","middleName":"","lastName":"Mengist","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-14 11:53:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9415033/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9415033/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108491329,"identity":"dea01f15-c00e-451e-93a8-465bf73907d2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-05 09:53:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":637471,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscriptfordiscoverenvironmentrevised1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9415033/v1_covered_68e57023-e376-47ec-a1c6-7cf83c68edae.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Estimating the Impacts of Land Use Land Cover Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Adabay Watershed, Blue Nile Basin of the Ethiopian Highlands","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-environment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Environment](https://www.springer.com/44274/)","snPcode":"44274","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44274/3","title":"Discover Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Adabay watershed, ESV, LULC change, Maximum likelihood classification","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9415033/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9415033/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEcosystems offer diverse contributions essential for quality of life. Accurately estimating these diverse services are vital for inform policy makers at various levels. This study set out to examine the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) on the ecosystem service value (ESV) within the Adabay Watersheds. It covered from 1994\u0026ndash;2024 and projected to 2034 and 2044. Eight LULC types were recognized by means of supervised image classification using maximum likelihood classification (MLC) method in the Arc GIS 10.8. The result showed an increase in crop land from (31.47%) to (44.44%), barren land increasing from (18.39%) to (22.26%), and settlements increased from (0.59%) to (5.29%) from 1994 to 2024. However, in the study time, grass land declined from 14.56% to 5.40%, water bodies experienced a slight decline from (0.04%) to (0.02%), shrub and bush areas dropped from (29.85%) to (7.16%), forest cover and woodland reduced from (0.55%) to (0.22%) and (1.45%) to (1.19%), respectively. The swift changes in LULC have led to a decrease in total ESV, dropping from \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1,207.52\u0026nbsp;million in 1994 to \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1,114.01\u0026nbsp;million in 2004, further declining to \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1,060.05\u0026nbsp;million in 2014, and reaching \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1,002.80\u0026nbsp;million in 2024. Nonetheless, the projected ESV is expected to show a slight recovery, increasing to \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1,252.92\u0026nbsp;million by 2034 and \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1,387.76\u0026nbsp;million by 2044. The insights gained from this study may be instrumental in raising awareness about the effects of LULC changes on ESV. Therefore, the watershed needs integrated watershed management strategies to enhance the natural vegetation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Estimating the Impacts of Land Use Land Cover Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Adabay Watershed, Blue Nile Basin of the Ethiopian Highlands","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-30 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