Emerging Dairy Heat-Stress Hotspots in India: A High-Resolution Temperature-Humidity Index Analysis Using AgERA5 and CMIP6 Climate Projections

Emerging Dairy Heat-Stress Hotspots in India: A High-Resolution Temperature-Humidity Index Analysis Using AgERA5 and CMIP6 Climate Projections | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Emerging Dairy Heat-Stress Hotspots in India: A High-Resolution Temperature-Humidity Index Analysis Using AgERA5 and CMIP6 Climate Projections Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Priyanka Singh, Samykannu Venkadesh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9110468/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Heat stress is emerging as a critical constraint to livestock productivity in tropical and subtropical regions under accelerating climate change. India, the world’s largest milk producer, is particularly vulnerable due to its predominantly open and climate-exposed dairy production systems. Despite increasing concern, long-term and spatially explicit assessments integrating both temperature and humidity drivers of livestock heat stress remain limited. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of historical (1979-2024) and future (2025-2100) thermal stress dynamics across six major dairy-producing states of India: Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh using high-resolution AgERA5 reanalysis data and downscaled CMIP6 projections from the ACCESS-CM2 model under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Thermal stress was quantified using the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) and classified into standard physiological stress categories. Historical analysis reveals persistent moderate-to-severe heat stress during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, with peak THI values exceeding 82-84 in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh. Annual moderate-to-severe stress exposure exceeds 130 days in Gujarat, 125 days in Andhra Pradesh, and 115 days in Uttar Pradesh, driven by maximum temperatures frequently reaching 38-44 °C and elevated nocturnal minima above 26 °C. Future projections indicate a marked intensification of thermal stress. Under SSP5-8.5, severe THI exposure is projected to exceed 180-200 days annually in arid and semi-arid regions by the late century, accompanied by warming of 2.5-3.8 °C in Tmax and 2.0-3.0 °C in Tmin. The results reveal a transition from seasonal to chronic heat stress regimes across major dairy landscapes, highlighting emerging livestock climate-risk corridors in western and central India. These findings provide high-resolution evidence to support climate-resilient dairy management and policy planning under future warming conditions. CMIP6 AgERA5 Temperature-Humidity Index Climate change India Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 17 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 15 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9110468","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":618882953,"identity":"60700ce1-ec6d-4127-be36-247fbbc6a3af","order_by":0,"name":"Mrutyunjay Mohapatra","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"India Meteorological Department","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mrutyunjay","middleName":"","lastName":"Mohapatra","suffix":""},{"id":618882954,"identity":"db06e191-6729-4604-b404-bc7b1d3b8b3c","order_by":1,"name":"Priyanka Singh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"India Meteorological Department","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Priyanka","middleName":"","lastName":"Singh","suffix":""},{"id":618882955,"identity":"7f1a95b1-edb0-4d97-8081-1a5b740fa2e3","order_by":2,"name":"Samykannu Venkadesh","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACZgYGNgYGAzC7AsRnbiBFyxkQn5EULYxtYBK/FoPjvYcNfpTZ2JuzH3724ee82mj+dqCWHxXbcGs5cy45sedcWuLOnjTjmb3bjufOOMzYwNhz5jZOLZIzcowP8LYdTjA4kMPMzLjtWG4DUAszYxseLfPfGB/82/bf3uD8G6CWOcdy5xPSwi/BY5zM23aAccMNkC0NNbkbCGrhyTE2lgH6Z8ONZ8aMPccO5G4EajmIzy9s7GeMJd+U2QEdlvyY4UdNXe6884cPPvhRgVsLOjgMJg8QrR4I6khRPApGwSgYBSMEAAC0Dlpz6DSobwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8112-7246","institution":"India Meteorological Department","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Samykannu","middleName":"","lastName":"Venkadesh","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-13 05:28:25","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9110468/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9110468/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106752158,"identity":"39ca9451-735e-4fc5-a913-7316abe532e6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-13 07:12:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1417890,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"THIAgERA5CMIP62026BlindedMarch.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9110468/v1_covered_7f2114f6-3f16-49b4-ae3f-adcda5e988f3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Emerging Dairy Heat-Stress Hotspots in India: A High-Resolution Temperature-Humidity Index Analysis Using AgERA5 and CMIP6 Climate Projections","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climatic-change","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"clim","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climatic Change](https://www.springer.com/journal/10584)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/clim/default.aspx","title":"Climatic Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"CMIP6, AgERA5, Temperature-Humidity Index, Climate change, India","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9110468/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9110468/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Heat stress is emerging as a critical constraint to livestock productivity in tropical and subtropical regions under accelerating climate change. 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