Ecological traits, not evolutionary history, predict climate vulnerability of global terrestrial vertebrates

Ecological traits, not evolutionary history, predict climate vulnerability of global terrestrial vertebrates | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Ecological traits, not evolutionary history, predict climate vulnerability of global terrestrial vertebrates Chunrong Mi, Bao-Jun Sun, Weiguo Du This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6280290/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is reshaping species distributions, yet the extent to which vulnerability to climate-driven range loss is shaped by evolutionary history versus ecological traits remains unresolved. Here, we integrate high-resolution species distribution models with spatial, life-history, and phylogenetic trait data for 26,202 terrestrial vertebrates worldwide. We find that vulnerability to climate change is poorly conserved across the vertebrate tree of life (phylogenetic D ≈ 0.84–0.90) but is strongly predicted by ecological traits such as narrow elevational and latitudinal ranges, large body size, and habitat specialization. These trait-vulnerability associations are consistent across amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Species already classified as threatened by IUCN face disproportionately higher risk, particularly when combined with narrow ecological niches. Our findings challenge the assumption that closely related species share similar climate sensitivities, and instead support a trait-based framework for understanding and predicting species' climate vulnerability. This work provides critical insights into the evolutionary ecology of extinction risk and identifies conservation priorities under rapid environmental change. Biological sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Full Text Additional Declarations Table 1 is available in the Supplementary Files section. There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Table0307.pdf Table SupplementaryFigure.pdf Supplementary figure Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6280290","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":436827382,"identity":"5437151c-a8ad-4785-9adc-4cec60166821","order_by":0,"name":"Chunrong Mi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZgY2KIux8eGHCtK0MDcbS5whzh6YFvY2Cd42ItTrtjM/e8y7456cOf/CBgnJedayDeyHj27Ap8XsMJu5Me+ZYmPLGQ8bDAq3pRs38KSl3cCvhYdNmrctIXHDjYMNCZLbDic2SPCYEa/lAO8ckrScb2xs4G0gSgubmeTctgRjgxuMzcwSx9KN2wj65fzhZxJv2xLkDM4ff/7zQ421bD/74WN4tSCARAKIZGYkJmqggP8AREsD8VpGwSgYBaNghAAArYZL2AEXyWoAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3350-8324","institution":"key laboratory of animal ecology and conservation biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chunrong","middleName":"","lastName":"Mi","suffix":""},{"id":436827383,"identity":"55f7839a-1860-488a-8417-43f1a8906275","order_by":1,"name":"Bao-Jun Sun","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7318-6059","institution":"Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bao-Jun","middleName":"","lastName":"Sun","suffix":""},{"id":436827384,"identity":"640854c2-eb71-4adc-ad67-ea566f5ca7de","order_by":2,"name":"Weiguo Du","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1868-5664","institution":"Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Weiguo","middleName":"","lastName":"Du","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-21 21:20:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6280290/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6280290/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":79726591,"identity":"2a773aaf-b56b-46ff-a57c-4a40b638a135","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-02 04:13:58","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":237307,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSpecies range loss in spatial and effect sizes for the measures from the main variables under RCP4.5 scenario.\u003c/strong\u003e Satanized effect sizes with post-mean and 95% credible intervals based on \u0026nbsp;results from MCMCglmm for each variable from the three main categories (organismal spatial, life \u0026nbsp;history traits and habitats). The variables second column with P \u0026lt; 0.05. The numbers in brackets \u0026nbsp;indicate the number of species. The results for other climate scenarios see Fig. S1-S3.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure03071.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6280290/v1/48f79a3fad1fd7910675f5d9.png"},{"id":79726593,"identity":"b3fb63ce-2931-49f1-8688-7ac93828fd26","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-02 04:13:58","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":474511,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePhylogenies of four terrestrial vertebrate groups (amphibians, reptiles, birds and \u0026nbsp;mammals) under RCP4.5 scenario. \u003c/strong\u003eThe percentage of range loss under climate change is represented on terminal branches (color gradient). Species with \u0026gt; 75% range loss are highlighted by \u0026nbsp;red dots, and \u0026lt; 25% range loss is highlighted by blue dots. Distribution of the values of the \u0026nbsp;phylogenetic signal of percent of range loss (index D) computed on 1000 trees are plotted in the center \u0026nbsp;of the tree. The results for other climate scenarios see Fig. S4-S6.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure03072.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6280290/v1/81bb349e9947012ed093498d.png"},{"id":79726598,"identity":"08f5cdac-e3ed-4f20-8368-548d4d705b63","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-02 04:13:58","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":39292,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePercentage of range loss per IUCN status according to criteria by the IUCN Red \u0026nbsp;List under RCP4.5 scenario. \u003c/strong\u003eLeast Concern (LC), Near Threatened (NT), Vulnerable (VU), \u0026nbsp;Endangered (EN), and Critically Endangered (CR). Threatened (TH red: Vulnerable, Endangered, \u0026nbsp;Critically Endangered), Unthreatened (UT green: Least Concern and Near Threatened). The numbers \u0026nbsp;in brackets indicate the number of species in each IUCN threatened category. The results for other \u0026nbsp;climate scenarios see Fig. S7-S9.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure03073.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6280290/v1/553a58f430eefb7d6b52fe55.png"},{"id":82830625,"identity":"f625feba-2d31-42da-b57a-6b698858e73c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-15 17:14:48","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":995685,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"MainDocumentDriver0321.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6280290/v1_covered_29ae71ea-f189-4ab8-aff5-74fb3ca1d235.pdf"},{"id":79726592,"identity":"fa6a71c9-409d-4056-8112-e9f7565e1c57","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-02 04:13:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":30540,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Table","description":"","filename":"Table0307.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6280290/v1/79f16fac24717ecbdf194738.pdf"},{"id":79726601,"identity":"60b3cd18-de21-4cac-9b83-5b5f3989cb6d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-02 04:13:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":35202378,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary figure","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryFigure.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6280290/v1/674e17e3119cfb915beea127.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eTable 1 is available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere is \u003cstrong\u003eNO\u003c/strong\u003e Competing Interest.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"Ecological traits, not evolutionary history, predict climate vulnerability of global terrestrial vertebrates","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6280290/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6280290/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Climate change is reshaping species distributions, yet the extent to which vulnerability to climate-driven range loss is shaped by evolutionary history versus ecological traits remains unresolved. Here, we integrate high-resolution species distribution models with spatial, life-history, and phylogenetic trait data for 26,202 terrestrial vertebrates worldwide. We find that vulnerability to climate change is poorly conserved across the vertebrate tree of life (phylogenetic D ≈ 0.84–0.90) but is strongly predicted by ecological traits such as narrow elevational and latitudinal ranges, large body size, and habitat specialization. These trait-vulnerability associations are consistent across amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Species already classified as threatened by IUCN face disproportionately higher risk, particularly when combined with narrow ecological niches. Our findings challenge the assumption that closely related species share similar climate sensitivities, and instead support a trait-based framework for understanding and predicting species' climate vulnerability. This work provides critical insights into the evolutionary ecology of extinction risk and identifies conservation priorities under rapid environmental change.","manuscriptTitle":"Ecological traits, not evolutionary history, predict climate vulnerability of global terrestrial vertebrates","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-02 04:13:53","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6280290/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"601ea579-08d0-4735-9394-0658069464cb","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 2nd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":46513098,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity"},{"id":46513099,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology"},{"id":46513100,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-05-15T17:06:39+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-02 04:13:53","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6280290","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6280290","identity":"rs-6280290","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}