Can an authoritarianism-compatible argument lead to greater support for immigration?

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Tessa Buchanan, David J. Young, James Ackland, Alan Renwick, Lee de-Wit This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4949609/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Sep, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Immigration has been a major point of contention for voters in 2024, a record year for elections, yet politicians rarely speak up in favour of it. Here we test with three studies (n=6,107) whether British attitudes towards immigration become more positive when participants are exposed to a short text written to be compatible with moderate levels of what political psychologists call ‘authoritarianism’. In the first study (n=2,004), participants report feeling that they share more values with a fictitious immigrant but this is not sufficient to change overall immigration attitudes. The second study (n=1,006) shows that when factual arguments and an emotional appeal are added to this text, this shifts attitudes towards immigration overall. The third study (n=3,097) confirms these results with a nationally and politically representative sample sourced from YouGov. These findings demonstrate that persuasion is possible on contentious issues like immigration, that immigration attitudes are not fixed, and that arguments in favour of immigration can be effective in the right context. Biological sciences/Psychology Biological sciences/Psychology/Human behaviour Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Main 2024 is a record year for elections with billions of people voting worldwide. In richer regions, such as the USA and Europe, immigration is proving to be a key area of contention 1 2 3 , much as it has been in electoral contests throughout the last decade. Whilst there are advantages and disadvantages to immigration, there is a perception that people are unlikely to be convinced or persuaded by arguments about the positives of immigration. As an example, during the 2016 EU referendum debate, then UK Prime Minister David Cameron felt it was a subject on which he had “no clear answer” 4 . While the literature suggests that political campaigns can have minimal persuasive effects unless very labour-intensive canvassing techniques are used 5 , more recent research has found that persuasion is possible with short text-based arguments 6 . Looking at the correlates of immigration attitudes in the UK, a strong association is known to exist with a psychological construct known as authoritarianism 7 . Those high in authoritarianism tend to be opposed to immigration and those low in authoritarianism tend to be in favour of it 8 . When linked with another construct known as Social Dominance Orientation 9 in the Dual Process Model 10 , authoritarianism has been shown to be better at predicting immigration attitudes than demographic measures 11 . In political science, the term ‘authoritarian’ is commonly used to describe anti-democratic regimes or leadership styles 12 . However, in the political psychology literature, ‘authoritarianism’ is a term used to describe an enduring psychological characteristic or predisposition. It is one of the measures used to test for differences between individuals in terms of their personalities, preferences and value structures. Across any population, some would be expected to be higher in this characteristic and some lower. In Britain, the distribution of this characteristic can be illustrated by responses to a question drawn from the Very Short Authoritarianism scale 13 which we measured in July 2024 in a nationally and politically representative YouGov survey 14 (n=2,151). We asked British participants the extent to which they agreed or disagreed that “the facts on crime and the recent public disorders show we have to crack down harder on troublemakers if we are going to preserve law and order”. The results demonstrated that 68% overall agreed with this statement, including 86% of those who voted Conservative in the 2019 general election, 54% of those who voted Labour and 60% of those who voted Liberal Democrat. Psychologists first began to study authoritarianism in the context of World War II. The earliest researchers conceived of it as an umbrella-type construct 15 , with sub-traits including conventionalism, submission and aggression, but also toughness and cynicism. They associated it with prejudice against outgroups; a tendency to think in black-and-white terms; an enhanced sensitivity to cleanliness; a strong preference for the in-group and its rules and norms; and a desire for a strong leader and an orderly society 16 . More recent research 17 suggests that some people have a predisposition towards authoritarianism, adopting authoritarian behaviours and attitudes when exposed to ‘normative threat,’ or the feeling that their group might be in danger. This sense of threat might be sparked by doubts in the competence of the authorities, disrespect for leaders, a lack of conformity with group norms or polarisation 18 . Conversely, such people might respond to ‘normative reassurance’ if persuaded that their preferred sense of oneness and sameness was being restored 19 . Authoritarianism has known associations with other psychological characteristics. High levels of authoritarianism are associated with the Big Five 20 personality trait of Conscientiousness (as opposed to Openness 21 ); the “binding” Moral Foundations 22 of Authority, Loyalty and Purity 23 ; the Schwartz 24 values of Conservation (Conformity, Tradition and Security) as opposed to the Openness values of Stimulation and Self-Direction 25 ; cognitive inflexibility 26 , disgust 27 and social conformity 28 . This broad literature provides indications as to the type of language that might appeal to those high and low in authoritarianism. This study considers whether exposure to a short text can lead to greater support for immigration on average, using mean values. This raises the question of which segment of the population to target. If a population were split evenly by the median value of authoritarianism, the appropriate target audience would be those who score in the top 50% for this characteristic, who are more likely to be opposed to immigration. Yet there are gradations to consider. Those who score most highly for authoritarianism are more likely to support punitive measures and harsh treatment for non-conforming out-groups – views which might alienate those with more centrist views, entrenching rather than bridging moral divides 29 . For this reason, we aimed to draft a text that would be compatible with moderately authoritarian views such as respect for order, tradition, social norms, hard work and hygiene. Study 1 For Study 1, we drafted two texts of approximately 250 words each. The control text was a neutral text that focused on working or relaxing at home while the treatment text used language that would be compatible with moderately authoritarian values. Both texts began with a call on availability bias, asking people to think back over the previous three years, and each text mentioned “Sonia”, a fictitious Polish immigrant, and the Platinum Jubilee celebrations for Queen Elizabeth II which had taken place the previous year. In the control text, these elements were unconnected to immigration, but in the treatment text, “Sonia” was described as a nurse working in the National Health Service (NHS), who had integrated into the UK and spoke English well. She was described as hardworking and respectful of British institutions such as the Royal Family and the BBC. A social norm was invoked based on an opinion poll 30 carried out by the YouGov polling agency in January 2023 which showed that immigration was no longer seen as one of the main issues of concern facing the country at that time. Ethical approval for this research was provided by the Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee (PRE.2022.075). The data were collected on the 22 nd and 23 rd of January 2023. A sample of 2,004 was recruited via Prolific Academic, split evenly between men and women and between those who had voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 EU referendum. Participants began by answering two political questions and two short surveys testing for levels of authoritarianism and SDO. They were then exposed to either the control text or the treatment text and asked to respond to three outcome variables testing the extent to which they shared values with the fictitious immigrant (the values question); the extent to which they agreed or disagreed that there were too many immigrants in the UK (the stock of immigrants); and whether they felt many more or many fewer immigrants should be let into the country (the flow of immigrants). In the analysis, the stock and flow questions were to be averaged to create a composite score for immigration attitudes. A hypothesis was pre-registered that immigration attitudes would be more positive when participants were exposed to the treatment text as compared to the control. Results : Averaging the stock and flow scores, a t-test showed no significant difference in the composite immigration attitudes score between those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text and the control (Control M=4.06, SD=1.65; treatment M=4.08, SD=1.69; t= -0.38, df = 2000, p-value = 0.70, conf. int. [-0.17, 0.12], d=-.02). Those exposed to the treatment text (M=5.20, SD=1.44) were, however, much more likely to say that they shared values with the immigrant than those exposed to the control (M=4.16, SD=1.45). A t-test showed that the result was significant (t= -16, df = 2002, p-value <0.001, conf. int, [-1.18, -.92]) with an effect size of d=-.73. Discussion: In this study, the moderately authoritarian values chosen to describe the immigrant had a significant and large effect on the extent to which participants felt a sense of commonality with this individual, so these values appear to be well selected. However, this was insufficient to change immigration attitudes overall. One possible explanation from the psychology literature 31 is that this individual immigrant may have been regarded as a positive exception to a negatively perceived outgroup. However, a critique based around the study of classical rhetoric 32 would suggest that three elements are required to make an argument persuasive. The treatment text described values ( ethos ) that closely matched those of the respondents, but lacked a logical argument ( logos ) about immigration overall and an emotional appeal ( pathos ) to encourage empathy. The text was also relatively short. We therefore carried out a second study to test a longer text combining the appeal to shared values with logical arguments and information about the immigrant’s emotional state. Study 2 For Study 2, we drafted a text of about 400 words. A social norm was invoked based on a YouGov poll conducted in October 2022 to say that most British people thought it a good thing if skilled immigrants came to fill gaps in the labour market, and the text reminded them of the “chaos” that ensues when essential jobs go unfilled. We added factual arguments to the treatment text based on trustworthy sources that were likely to appeal to those who held moderately authoritarian views. The text quoted the Office for Budgetary Responsibility 33 on the long-term contribution made by immigrants to the UK’s finances; the Office of National Statistics 34 on their contribution to the National Health Service (NHS); and “figures quoted by the government” 35 which show that European Union immigrants make a particularly positive contribution in terms of the tax they pay. Additionally, it said that the fictitious immigrant was worried about her future and whether she would still be welcome in the UK. Data were gathered from Prolific Academic between 22 January and 9 February 2023. A fresh sample of 1,006 participants was selected to be exposed to the new longer text. They were asked to respond to the same three questions used in Study 1 (values, immigration stock and immigration flow), but since this treatment text specifically referenced EU immigration, we decided to include an additional dependent variable to test whether participants felt that immigration from the European Union was good or bad for the country. The results for this new treatment group were to be compared with the results for the control group (n=1,005) from Study 1, who had answered the questions on values, immigration stock and immigration flow. However, since they had not answered the question on attitudes towards EU immigration, we approached them again with this question and 891 responded within a pre-registered deadline of four days. Results: T-tests were used to test for differences between those exposed to the treatment text and those exposed to the control. On the EU immigration question, there was a significant difference between those exposed to the control (M=3.63, SD=1.17) and those exposed to the treatment text (M=3.81, SD=1.09: t=-3.40, df=1781, p<.001, conf. int. [-.28, -.08], d=.16). There was also a significant difference on the composite immigration score between the responses of those exposed to the control (M=4.06, SD=1.65) and those exposed to the treatment text (M=4.25, SD=1.66: t=-2.63, df=2004, p<.01, conf. int. [-.34, -.05], d=-.12). As in Study 1, we found that, as compared to the control (M=4.16, SD=1.45), those exposed to the treatment text (M=5.27, SD=1.35) felt they shared more values with the immigrant (t=-17.88, df=1995, p<.001, conf. int. [-1.24, -1.00], d=-.80). Discussion: Study 2 confirms the previous finding that when the immigrant is described in terms that are compatible with moderately authoritarian values, the participants feel they have more in common with her. However, this study also finds that exposure to a longer text containing logical arguments and an emotional appeal changes attitudes towards immigration, with respondents more positive about EU immigration and immigration in general. Whilst Study 2 was tested on a large sample, it was not politically or nationally representative, and the addition of the logical arguments and emotional appeal was exploratory and not pre-registered. We addressed these points through Study 3. Study 3 For this pre-registered study, three narratives of around 400 words were created. A control text based on bread (seen as a neutral topic) was drafted by the large language model ChatGPT to avoid implicit researcher bias, then double-checked to ensure that the model had not imported bias of its own. As a point of comparison, an additional text was drafted that was designed to appeal to those low in authoritarianism, using arguments that are commonly used to describe the benefits of immigration, such as increased diversity. The third text was the authoritarianism-compatible text used in Study 2. Each text contained a reference to the fictitious immigrant. In the control text, she was described as a consumer of bread, but in the treatment texts she was used to personify the values held by those low or high in authoritarianism. Both treatment texts were supplemented with the same factual material used in Study 2 and an emotional appeal. Data were collected from 7 to 12 March 2023. The polling company YouGov recruited 3,067 participants. They responded to two political questions, and two short surveys testing for Authoritarianism and Social Dominance Orientation. Those in the control group read the neutral text on bread quality while those in the treatment groups read either the low authoritarianism text or the authoritarianism-compatible text. They were asked to respond to the four questions asked in Study 2. The first tested for shared values; the second asked whether the individual felt EU immigration was a good or a bad thing for the UK; the third was the immigration stock question and the fourth was the immigration flow question. Responses to the last two questions were used to create a composite immigration attitudes score as before. The study was pre-registered on the Open Science Framework with the following hypotheses: Hypothesis 1: Those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text will feel closer to the immigrant than those exposed to a control. Hypothesis 2: Those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text will be more positive about EU immigration than those exposed to a control. Hypothesis 3: Those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text will be more positive about immigration than those exposed to a control. Results Comparing the authoritarianism-compatible text and the control: T-tests were used to compare responses. On the values question, there was a significant difference between those exposed to the control (“Cont”) text (M=4.07, SD=1.56) and those exposed to the authoritarianism compatible (“AC”) text (M=5.13, SD=1.56): (t=-15, df=2039, p<.001, conf. int. [-1.19, -.92], d=-.68). On the EU immigration question, there was a significant difference between the responses of those exposed to the two texts (“Cont” M=3.41, SD=1.83; “AC” M=2.61, SD=1.61; t=10.24; df=1901, p<.001, conf. int. [.65, .95], d=.46). Expressed in percentage terms and including the “Don’t Knows”, there was a 20 percentage point difference between the responses of those who judged EU immigration to be “Slightly good”, “Moderately good” or a “Very good thing”(53% for the control v. 73% for the authoritarianism-compatible text). Those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text were significantly more positive on both immigration stock (“Cont” M=3.79, SD=2.05; “AC” M= 4.13, SD= 1.98; t=-3.7, df=2030, p<.001, conf. int. [-.51, -.16], d=-.16) and immigration flow (“Cont” M=4.52, SD=1.78; “AC” M=4.21, SD=1.75; t=4.0, df=2035, p<.001, conf. int. [.16, .46], d=.18) than those exposed to the control text. A composite immigration score was created from averaging the two responses above. This also showed a significant difference in the responses between those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible and control texts (“Cont” M=3.64, SD=1.81; “AC” M=3.96, SD=1.77; t=-4.06, df=2033, p<.001, conf. int [-.47, -.17], d=-.18). Comparing the low authoritarianism text and the control: The focus of this experiment was the authoritarianism-compatible text, hence no hypotheses were pre-registered for the low authoritarianism (“LA”) text. Nonetheless, when comparing this text with the control , there were significant differences on the values question (“Cont” M=4.07, SD=1.56;­ “LA” M=4.47, SD=1.71; t=-5.47, df=2010, p<.001, conf int[-.54, -.26], d=-.24); on the EU immigration question (“Cont” M= 3.41, SD=1.83; “LA” M= 2.93, SD=1.72; t=6.03, df=1930, p<.001, conf. int [.33, .64], d=.27); on the immigration stock question (“Cont” M=3.79, SD=2.05; “LA” M=4.05, SD=2.05; t=-2.84, df=2018; p=.004, conf int [-.44, -.08], d=-.13), on the immigration flow question (“Cont” M=4.52, SD=1.78; “LA” M=4.30, SD=1.82; t=2.80, df=2019, p=.005, conf int[.07, .38], d=.12), and on the composite immigration score (“Cont” M=3.64, SD=1.81; “LA” M=3.88, SD=1.84; t=-2.98, df=2019, p=.003, conf int [-.40, -.08], d=-.13). This text did change attitudes but it was less effective than the authoritarianism-compatible text, as illustrated in Figs. 1-4. Discussion: This study demonstrates with a large, nationally and politically representative sample that it is possible to make British attitudes towards immigration more positive. The three pre-registered hypotheses for Study 3 are therefore upheld. As compared to a control text, when British people are exposed to an authoritarianism-compatible text including factual material and an emotional appeal, they feel a greater sense of shared values with an immigrant, they are more positive about EU immigration and more positive about immigration overall. In 2016, some politicians were wary about speaking up in favour of EU immigration. Here we show that an argument of 400 words can shift attitudes on EU immigration significantly. In the control condition, 53% said that EU immigration was a “Slightly good”, “Moderately good” or “Very good thing.” For those who read the treatment text, the equivalent percentage was 73% i.e. 20 percentage points higher than for those exposed to the control. The study also suggests that some forms of argument are more effective than others. In Study 3, the authoritarianism-compatible text was more effective than the low authoritarianism text which deployed commonly used arguments about diversity. Both texts focused on an individual immigrant since research shows that it is easier to empathise with a single person than with many 36 . However in the authoritarianism-compatible text, the immigrant was described in reassuring terms as an unthreatening female engaged in a caring occupation who held traditional values and had integrated into the UK, speaking English well. In this final experiment, both treatment texts included identical factual information. The results show that it was not these arguments alone that shifted attitudes. If this had been the case, there would be no difference between the results for the authoritarianism-compatible text and the low authoritarianism text. The evidence presented here suggests that the strongest effect came from combining this factual information with the authoritarianism-compatible elements and the emotional appeal. A final point is that the authoritarianism-compatible text brought together elements that are sometimes tested in isolation, such as social norms messaging or messages framed in terms of particular personality traits (in this case, Conscientiousness). In this study, we constructed a persuasive text that is consistent with theorising that sees authoritarianism as an umbrella-type construct under which other psychological characteristics are grouped together in predictable ways. Further studies could explore in greater depth whether this combined approach to messaging is more effective than elements tested individually. In summary, our results demonstrate that positive arguments can change British immigration attitudes in some contexts. On one level these results are not surprising, given that immigration attitudes have changed substantially in the UK in the last 10 years, which is often attributed to the salience of immigration in the media 37 . What our results show is that change can happen after exposure to a relatively short text, and that this is most effective when it combines shared values, evidence from trusted sources of information and an emotional appeal. This builds towards a body of evidence that people can persuaded by arguments incorporating reason when these are carefully constructed. It was outside of the scope of this work to evaluate what level of immigration is appropriate for any given country at any given time, and for ethical reasons we did not test whether it was possible to make attitudes more negative. However, in a world where climate-driven migration is rising, we think this work offers important insights for policy-makers and politicians in understanding what drives attitudes towards immigration and what arguments might be effective in changing those attitudes. Procedure Ethics: Approval was granted by the Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee (PRE.2022.075). All methods were carried out in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations. Informed consent was obtained from all subjects and/or their legal guardian(s). Pre-registrations were lodged on the Open Science Framework. Participants: In Study 1, 1,005 people were exposed to the control text and 999 were exposed to the treatment text. Payment was 75p for those in the treatment condition and £1.35 for those in the control condition, who answered additional questions after completing the experiment. In Study 2, 1,006 people were exposed to the new treatment text. The sample was split evenly between men and women, and between those who voted Leave and Remain. Five were excluded for not filling in the dependent variables. They were paid 75p for a 5-minute survey. To generate responses on the EU attitudes question, the 1,005 people who had been exposed to the control text in Study 1 were approached again. A required response rate for these participants of 80% was pre-registered, with a cut-off date of four days after the launch of the data-gathering. 89% responded within the deadline (444 Leave voters and 447 Remain voters). Participants were paid 35p for a 2-minute survey. In Study 3, YouGov recruited 3,067 participants (1,706 women) with an average age of 50. YouGov supplied weights to make the survey nationally and politically representative. The participants were paid 50 YouGov points for taking part in the 5-minute survey. Procedure: After being asked for consent, each study began by asking participants who they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow, and if they thought the process of the UK leaving the EU (Brexit) was going well or badly. Exact responses are recorded in the documentation on the Open Science Framework. They reflected contemporaneous polls. In Studies 1 and 2, participants responded to the 6-item Very Short Authoritarianism (VSA) scale and the 8-item SDO-7 scale 38 . In Study 3, participants completed the VSA scale and the shorter 4-item SDO scale 39 . They were then exposed to the control or treatment texts. Variables: The first dependent variable asked participants to choose which of seven increasingly overlapping circles best described the extent to which the fictitious immigrant shared their values (Fig. 5). These circles, numbered from 1 to 7, were based on the ‘Inclusion of Other in Self’ scale 40 . Since those exposed to the control condition would have very little detail about the immigrant, respondents were encouraged to go with their gut instinct. The exact wording was: ”Please select the pair of circles that best describes the extent to which Sonia shares or doesn't share your values. Please answer this question quickly. If you're not sure, or if there is not enough information, it's best to go with your gut instinct.” The responses were recorded on a 1-7 Likert scale. In Study 3, to avoid confusion, the score of 1 was additionally marked as “Doesn’t share at all” and a score of 7 was marked as “Shares completely”. EU immigration attitudes were tested in studies 2 and 3. Participants were asked: “Do you think immigration from EU countries is a good or bad thing for the UK?” In Study 2, a five-point scale was used, but in Study 3, a seven-point scale was used to avoid a potential ceiling effect. The response options were 1 = “Very good thing”, 2 = “Moderately good”, 3 = “Slightly good”, 4 = “Neither good nor bad”, 5 = “Slightly bad”, 6 = “Moderately bad”, 7 = “Very bad”, 8 = “Don’t know”. Those who responded “Don’t know” were excluded from the analysis. Attitudes towards the stock of immigrants were measured with the following question with responses recorded on a 7-point Likert scale: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “There are too many immigrants in the UK right now”, with scores ranging from 1 = “Strongly agree” to 7 = “Strongly disagree”. The fourth dependent variable measured attitudes towards the flow of immigrants. It was worded as follows: “Some people think that the UK should allow many more immigrants to come to the UK to live, and others think that the UK should allow fewer immigrants. Where would you place yourself on this scale?”. Responses were measured on a 7-point Likert scale ranging from 1 = “Many more” to 7 = “Many fewer”. The final two questions were averaged to generate an overall immigration score (in the R code, the score for the immigration flow question is first reversed so that low scores on both questions indicate low support for immigration). At the end of the survey, participants were thanked and debriefed. Declarations The pre-registration, data and code supporting the findings in this research can be found on the Open Science Framework on this link: https://osf.io/hbu5x/. Author contributions: The study was carried out by Tessa Buchanan under the supervision of Lee de-Wit and Alan Renwick. The article was drafted by Tessa Buchanan with the assistance of Lee de-Wit and James Ackland. David Young and James Ackland assisted with advice on data analysis. The authors declare no competing interests. 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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115 (19), E4532-4540. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708960115. Aaroe, L., Petersen, M.B., Arceneaux, K., (2017) The Behavioral Immune System Shapes Political Intuitions: Why and How Individual Differences in Disgust Sensitivity Underlie Opposition to Immigration American Political Science Review, 111(2), 277-294. Duckitt, J., Wagner, C., du Plessis, I., & Birum, I., (2002). The psychological bases of ideology and prejudice: Testing a dual process model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(1), 75–93. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.83.1.75. Kodapanakkal RI, Brandt MJ, Kogler C, van Beest I. (2022) Moral Frames Are Persuasive and Moralize Attitudes; Nonmoral Frames Are Persuasive and De-Moralize Attitudes. Psychol Sci. 2022 Mar;33(3):433-449. doi: 10.1177/09567976211040803. Epub 2022 Feb 25. PMID: 35213257. YouGov (2023) The most important issues facing the country www.yougov.co.uk (accessed April 2024). (As at 15 January 2023, 29% ranked Immigration & Asylum as the most important issue facing the country, as opposed to 65% for the Economy and 58% for Health). Allport, G. W., (1954/1979) The Nature of Prejudice Perseus Books Publishing LLC. pp.9, 15, 397. Aristotle (350 BCE) The Art of Rhetoric translated by Robin Waterfield (2018) Oxford University Press. Location 1605. Office for Budgetary Responsibility, (2023) How are our Brexit forecasting assumptions performing? Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2023 Box 2.4, p.46. Office of National Statistics, (2019) International migration and the healthcare workforce www.ons.gov.uk (Accessed 12 April 2023). Migration Advisory Committee, (2018), EEA migration in the UK: Final report 18 September 2018, www.gov.uk (Accessed January 2018). 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Inclusion of other in the self scale and the structure of interpersonal closeness. Journal of personality and social psychology, 63(4), 596. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files CananauthoritarianismcompatibleargumentleadtogreatersupportforimmigrationAdditionalnotes.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Sep, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 15 Jan, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Jan, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Dec, 2024 Reviews received at journal 23 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Sep, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Sep, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 03 Sep, 2024 Editor invited by journal 03 Sep, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 03 Sep, 2024 First submitted to journal 21 Aug, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4949609","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":357826675,"identity":"c6b52e61-8c03-442d-89af-2bf5d776d4dd","order_by":0,"name":"Tessa Buchanan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHvYfHyrgvAQiNACh5IwzpGqR5m0jRYu92NkDBrzz7OR1G5gffmBsSyPCFum8hATJbcmG2w6wGUswtuUQoyXH4ABQPeO2AwxmDIxtFURpMWxInHPAftsB9m9EazFmONhwIHHbAR6QLcQ47HZeGmPDseTkbYd5iiUSzhHhffbZuceY/9TY2W473r7xw4eyZMJaEICZgahYGQWjYBSMglFADAAAooU1TEmcmfoAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tessa","middleName":"","lastName":"Buchanan","suffix":""},{"id":357826676,"identity":"fe8bd342-2b0e-4bdd-8aff-739e443a3536","order_by":1,"name":"David J. Young","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"J.","lastName":"Young","suffix":""},{"id":357826677,"identity":"1300ea4a-5416-4482-b0ef-028519997c7f","order_by":2,"name":"James Ackland","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"James","middleName":"","lastName":"Ackland","suffix":""},{"id":357826678,"identity":"38801b46-9b21-4f73-8be1-50130cb9e8c9","order_by":3,"name":"Alan Renwick","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University College London","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alan","middleName":"","lastName":"Renwick","suffix":""},{"id":357826679,"identity":"dcaaa743-9025-493b-bc8e-f680d556ef90","order_by":4,"name":"Lee de-Wit","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lee","middleName":"","lastName":"de-Wit","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-08-21 07:47:53","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4949609/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4949609/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11491-z","type":"published","date":"2025-09-12T15:56:59+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":66951626,"identity":"a0f70b69-08e8-487d-94e5-7878b0be9241","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-18 10:23:49","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":438635,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTo what extent does the migrant mentioned in the text share or not share your values?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eN=3,067, weighted to be nationally representative.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4949609/v1/830917958049a529c72c0d20.png"},{"id":66951575,"identity":"51f82d96-36c9-4880-be65-c50957f2921a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-18 10:23:46","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":356277,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEU immigration – good or bad for UK?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eN=2,987, weighted to be nationally representative with “Don’t Know” responses removed.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4949609/v1/da30195ff88c236b7f63dfd1.png"},{"id":66951581,"identity":"092c6507-4c56-4963-a5d9-2072e2c61d8f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-18 10:23:46","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":361790,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eImmigration stock – do you agree or disagree there are too many migrants in UK?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eN=3,067, weighted to be nationally representative.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4949609/v1/6f12c8779cf8ee05ad4374d8.png"},{"id":66951628,"identity":"726ad759-926d-4b30-bd6f-7535305da653","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-18 10:23:49","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":345022,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eImmigration flow – allow many more or many fewer migrants to UK?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eN=3,067, weighted to be nationally representative.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4949609/v1/0c2d7a7be503aa270807f5f5.png"},{"id":66951538,"identity":"d4850f1f-1a77-4353-8bc1-0c07503d9043","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-18 10:23:45","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":111855,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe shared values variable\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(Adapted from Aron et al. 1992)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4949609/v1/1dc621d117b79d9acd15d67a.png"},{"id":91817641,"identity":"bc6569eb-fe36-4ded-bf7c-3da4a53b8f84","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-22 06:59:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2356189,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4949609/v1/e0e16d57-8c2e-4f4b-bbdc-ef440564faf6.pdf"},{"id":66951627,"identity":"4949b5f0-7c8f-4836-a4a9-98912cd6470c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-18 10:23:49","extension":"docx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":69660,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"CananauthoritarianismcompatibleargumentleadtogreatersupportforimmigrationAdditionalnotes.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4949609/v1/0983d6e58a269e9bc4f33092.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Can an authoritarianism-compatible argument lead to greater support for immigration?","fulltext":[{"header":"Main","content":"\u003cp\u003e2024 is a record year for elections with billions of people voting worldwide. In richer regions, such as the USA and Europe, immigration is proving to be a key area of contention\u003csup\u003e1\u003c/sup\u003e \u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e \u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e, much as it has been in electoral contests throughout the last decade. Whilst there are advantages and disadvantages to immigration, there is a perception that people are unlikely to be convinced or persuaded by arguments about the positives of immigration. As an example, during the 2016 EU referendum debate, then UK Prime Minister David Cameron felt it was a subject on which he had “no clear answer”\u003csup\u003e4\u003c/sup\u003e.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhile the literature suggests that political campaigns can have minimal persuasive effects unless very labour-intensive canvassing techniques are used\u003csup\u003e5\u003c/sup\u003e, more recent research has found that persuasion is possible with short text-based arguments\u003csup\u003e6\u003c/sup\u003e.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLooking at the correlates of immigration attitudes in the UK, a strong association is known to exist with a psychological construct known as authoritarianism\u003csup\u003e7\u003c/sup\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e Those high in authoritarianism tend to be opposed to immigration and those low in authoritarianism tend to be in favour of it\u003csup\u003e8\u003c/sup\u003e. When linked with another construct known as Social Dominance Orientation\u003csup\u003e9\u003c/sup\u003e in the Dual Process Model\u003csup\u003e10\u003c/sup\u003e, authoritarianism has been shown to be better at predicting immigration attitudes than demographic measures\u003csup\u003e11\u003c/sup\u003e.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn political science, the term ‘authoritarian’ is commonly used to describe anti-democratic regimes or leadership styles\u003csup\u003e12\u003c/sup\u003e. However, in the political psychology literature, ‘authoritarianism’ is a term used to describe an enduring psychological characteristic or predisposition. It is one of the measures used to test for differences between individuals in terms of their personalities, preferences and value structures. Across any population, some would be expected to be higher in this characteristic and some lower. In Britain, the distribution of this characteristic can be illustrated by responses to a question drawn from the Very Short Authoritarianism scale\u003csup\u003e13\u003c/sup\u003e which we measured in July 2024 in a nationally and politically representative YouGov survey\u003csup\u003e14\u003c/sup\u003e (n=2,151). We asked British participants the extent to which they agreed or disagreed that “the facts on crime and the recent public disorders show we have to crack down harder on troublemakers if we are going to preserve law and order”. The results demonstrated that 68% overall agreed with this statement, including 86% of those who voted Conservative in the 2019 general election, 54% of those who voted Labour and 60% of those who voted Liberal Democrat. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePsychologists first began to study authoritarianism in the context of World War II. The earliest researchers conceived of it as an umbrella-type construct\u003csup\u003e15\u003c/sup\u003e, with sub-traits including conventionalism, submission and aggression, but also toughness and cynicism. They associated it with prejudice against outgroups; a tendency to think in black-and-white terms; an enhanced sensitivity to cleanliness; a strong preference for the in-group and its rules and norms; and a desire for a strong leader and an orderly society\u003csup\u003e16\u003c/sup\u003e.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMore recent research\u003csup\u003e17\u003c/sup\u003e suggests that some people have a predisposition towards authoritarianism, adopting authoritarian behaviours and attitudes when exposed to ‘normative threat,’ or the feeling that their group might be in danger. This sense of threat might be sparked by doubts in the competence of the authorities, disrespect for leaders, a lack of conformity with group norms or polarisation\u003csup\u003e18\u003c/sup\u003e. Conversely, such people might respond to ‘normative reassurance’ if persuaded that their preferred sense of oneness and sameness was being restored\u003csup\u003e19\u003c/sup\u003e.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAuthoritarianism has known associations with other psychological characteristics. High levels of authoritarianism are associated with the Big Five\u003csup\u003e20\u003c/sup\u003e personality trait of Conscientiousness (as opposed to Openness\u003csup\u003e21\u003c/sup\u003e); the\u0026nbsp;“binding” Moral Foundations\u003csup\u003e22\u003c/sup\u003e of Authority, Loyalty and Purity\u003csup\u003e23\u003c/sup\u003e; the Schwartz\u003csup\u003e24\u003c/sup\u003e values of Conservation (Conformity, Tradition and Security) as opposed to the Openness values of Stimulation and Self-Direction\u003csup\u003e25\u003c/sup\u003e; cognitive inflexibility\u003csup\u003e26\u003c/sup\u003e, disgust\u003csup\u003e27\u003c/sup\u003e and social conformity\u003csup\u003e28\u003c/sup\u003e. This broad literature provides indications as to the type of language that might appeal to those high and low in authoritarianism.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study considers whether exposure to a short text can lead to greater support for immigration on average, using mean values. This raises the question of which segment of the population to target. If a population were split evenly by the median value of authoritarianism, the appropriate target audience would be those who score in the top 50% for this characteristic, who are more likely to be opposed to immigration. Yet there are gradations to consider. Those who score most highly for authoritarianism are more likely to support punitive measures and harsh treatment for non-conforming out-groups – views which might alienate those with more centrist views, entrenching rather than bridging moral divides\u003csup\u003e29\u003c/sup\u003e. For this reason, we aimed to draft a text that would be compatible with moderately authoritarian views such as respect for order, tradition, social norms, hard work and hygiene.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Study 1","content":"\u003cp\u003eFor Study 1, we drafted two texts of approximately 250 words each. The control text was a neutral text that focused on working or relaxing at home while the treatment text used language that would be compatible with moderately authoritarian values.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBoth texts began with a call on availability bias, asking people to think back over the previous three years, and each text mentioned “Sonia”, a fictitious Polish immigrant, and the Platinum Jubilee celebrations for Queen Elizabeth II which had taken place the previous year. In the control text, these elements were unconnected to immigration, but in the treatment text, “Sonia” was described as a nurse working in the National Health Service (NHS), who had integrated into the UK and spoke English well. She was described as hardworking and respectful of British institutions such as the Royal Family and the BBC. A social norm was invoked based on an opinion poll\u003csup\u003e30\u003c/sup\u003e carried out by the YouGov polling agency in January 2023 which showed that immigration was no longer seen as one of the main issues of concern facing the country at that time. \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEthical approval for this research was provided by the Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee (PRE.2022.075). The data were collected on the \u0026nbsp;22\u003csup\u003end\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026nbsp; and 23\u003csup\u003erd\u003c/sup\u003e of January 2023. A sample of 2,004 was recruited via Prolific Academic, split evenly between men and women and between those who had voted Leave and Remain in the 2016 EU referendum.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eParticipants began by answering two political questions and two short surveys testing for levels of authoritarianism and SDO. They were then exposed to either the control text or the treatment text and asked to respond to three outcome variables testing the extent to which they shared values with the fictitious immigrant (the values question); the extent to which they agreed or disagreed that there were too many immigrants in the UK (the stock of immigrants); and whether they felt many more or many fewer immigrants should be let into the country (the flow of immigrants). \u0026nbsp;In the analysis, the stock and flow questions were to be averaged to create a composite score for immigration attitudes. \u0026nbsp;A hypothesis was pre-registered that immigration attitudes would be more positive when participants were exposed to the treatment text as compared to the control.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults\u003c/strong\u003e: Averaging the stock and flow scores, a t-test showed no significant difference in the composite immigration attitudes score between those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text and the control (Control M=4.06, SD=1.65; treatment M=4.08, SD=1.69; t= -0.38, df = 2000, p-value = 0.70, conf. int. [-0.17, 0.12], d=-.02).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThose exposed to the treatment text (M=5.20, SD=1.44) were, however, much more likely to say that they shared values with the immigrant than those exposed to the control (M=4.16, SD=1.45). A t-test showed that the result was significant (t= -16, df = 2002, p-value \u0026lt;0.001, conf. int, [-1.18, -.92]) with an effect size of d=-.73.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDiscussion:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eIn this study, the moderately authoritarian values chosen to describe the immigrant had a significant and large effect on the extent to which participants felt a sense of commonality with this individual, so these values appear to be well selected. However, this was insufficient to change immigration attitudes overall. One possible explanation from the psychology literature\u003csup\u003e31\u003c/sup\u003e is that this individual immigrant may have been regarded as a positive exception to a negatively perceived outgroup. However, a critique based around the study of classical rhetoric\u003csup\u003e32\u003c/sup\u003e would suggest that three elements are required to make an argument persuasive. The treatment text described values (\u003cem\u003eethos\u003c/em\u003e) that closely matched those of the respondents, but lacked a logical argument (\u003cem\u003elogos\u003c/em\u003e) about immigration overall and an emotional appeal (\u003cem\u003epathos\u003c/em\u003e) to encourage empathy. The text was also relatively short. We therefore carried out a second study to test a longer text combining the appeal to shared values with logical arguments and information about the immigrant’s emotional state.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Study 2","content":"\u003cp\u003eFor Study 2, we drafted a text of about 400 words.\u0026nbsp;A social norm was invoked based on a YouGov poll conducted in October 2022 to say that most British people thought it a good thing if skilled immigrants came to fill gaps in the labour market, and the text reminded them of the “chaos” that ensues when essential jobs go unfilled.\u0026nbsp;We added factual arguments to the treatment text based on trustworthy sources that were likely to appeal to those who held moderately authoritarian views. The text quoted the Office for Budgetary Responsibility\u003csup\u003e33\u003c/sup\u003e on the long-term contribution made by immigrants to the UK’s finances; the Office of National Statistics\u003csup\u003e34\u003c/sup\u003e on their contribution to the National Health Service (NHS); and “figures quoted by the government”\u003csup\u003e35\u003c/sup\u003e which show that European Union immigrants make a particularly positive contribution in terms of the tax they pay. Additionally, it said that the fictitious immigrant was worried about her future and whether she would still be welcome in the UK.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eData were gathered from Prolific Academic between 22 January and 9 February 2023. A fresh sample of 1,006 participants was selected to be exposed to the new longer text. They were asked to respond to the same three questions used in Study 1 (values, immigration stock and immigration flow), but since this treatment text specifically referenced EU immigration, we decided to include an additional dependent variable to test whether participants felt that immigration from the European Union was good or bad for the country.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe results for this new treatment group were to be compared with the results for the control group (n=1,005) from Study 1, who had answered the questions on values, immigration stock and immigration flow. However, since they had not answered the question on attitudes towards EU immigration, we approached them again with this question and 891 responded within a pre-registered deadline of four days.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eT-tests were used to test for differences between those exposed to the treatment text and those exposed to the control.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOn the EU immigration question, there was a significant difference between those exposed to the control (M=3.63, SD=1.17) and those exposed to the treatment text (M=3.81, SD=1.09: t=-3.40, df=1781, p\u0026lt;.001, conf. int. [-.28, -.08], d=.16).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThere was also a significant difference on the composite immigration score between the responses of those exposed to the control (M=4.06, SD=1.65) and those exposed to the treatment text (M=4.25, SD=1.66: t=-2.63, df=2004, p\u0026lt;.01, conf. int. [-.34, -.05], d=-.12).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAs in Study 1, we found that, as compared to the control (M=4.16, SD=1.45), those exposed to the treatment text (M=5.27, SD=1.35) felt they shared more values with the immigrant (t=-17.88, df=1995, p\u0026lt;.001, conf. int. [-1.24, -1.00], d=-.80).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDiscussion:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eStudy 2 confirms the previous finding that when the immigrant is described in terms that are compatible with moderately authoritarian values, the participants feel they have more in common with her. However, this study also finds that exposure to a longer text containing logical arguments and an emotional appeal changes attitudes towards immigration, with respondents more positive about EU immigration and immigration in general.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhilst Study 2 was tested on a large sample, it was not politically or nationally representative, and the addition of the logical arguments and emotional appeal was exploratory and not pre-registered. We addressed these points through Study 3.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Study 3","content":"\u003cp\u003eFor this pre-registered study, three narratives of around 400 words were created. A control text based on bread (seen as a neutral topic) was drafted by the large language model ChatGPT to avoid implicit researcher bias, then double-checked to ensure that the model had not imported bias of its own. As a point of comparison, an additional text was drafted that was designed to appeal to those low in authoritarianism, using arguments that are commonly used to describe the benefits of immigration, such as increased diversity. The third text was the authoritarianism-compatible text used in Study 2.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEach text contained a reference to the fictitious immigrant. In the control text, she was described as a consumer of bread, but in the treatment texts she was used to personify the values held by those low or high in authoritarianism. \u0026nbsp;Both treatment texts were supplemented with the same factual material used in Study 2 and an emotional appeal.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eData were collected from 7 to 12 March 2023. The polling company YouGov recruited 3,067 participants. They responded to two political questions, and two short surveys testing for Authoritarianism and Social Dominance Orientation. Those in the control group read the neutral text on bread quality while those in the treatment groups read either the low authoritarianism text or the authoritarianism-compatible text. They were asked to respond to the four questions asked in Study 2. The first tested for shared values; the second asked whether the individual felt EU immigration was a good or a bad thing for the UK; the third was the immigration stock question and the fourth was the immigration flow question. Responses to the last two questions were used to create a composite immigration attitudes score as before.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe study was pre-registered on the Open Science Framework with the following hypotheses:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHypothesis 1: Those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text will feel closer to the immigrant than those exposed to a control. \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHypothesis 2: Those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text will be more positive about EU immigration than those exposed to a control. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHypothesis 3: Those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text will be more positive about immigration than those exposed to a control.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eComparing the authoritarianism-compatible text and the control:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eT-tests were used to compare responses.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOn the values question, there was a significant difference between those exposed to the control (“Cont”) text (M=4.07, SD=1.56) and those exposed to the authoritarianism compatible (“AC”) text (M=5.13, SD=1.56): (t=-15, df=2039, p\u0026lt;.001, conf. int. [-1.19, -.92],\u0026nbsp;\u003cbr\u003e\u0026nbsp;d=-.68).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOn the EU immigration question, there was a significant difference between the responses of those exposed to the two texts (“Cont” M=3.41, SD=1.83; “AC” M=2.61, SD=1.61; t=10.24; df=1901, p\u0026lt;.001, conf. int. [.65, .95], d=.46).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eExpressed in percentage terms and including the “Don’t Knows”, there was a 20 percentage point difference between the responses of those who judged EU immigration to be “Slightly good”, “Moderately good” or a “Very good thing”(53% for the control v. 73% for the authoritarianism-compatible text). \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThose exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible text were significantly more positive on both immigration stock (“Cont” M=3.79, SD=2.05; “AC” M= 4.13, SD= 1.98; t=-3.7, df=2030, p\u0026lt;.001, conf. int. [-.51, -.16], d=-.16) and immigration flow (“Cont” M=4.52, SD=1.78; “AC” M=4.21, SD=1.75; t=4.0, df=2035, p\u0026lt;.001, conf. int. [.16, .46], d=.18) than those exposed to the control text.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA composite immigration score was created from averaging the two responses above. This also showed a significant difference in the responses between those exposed to the authoritarianism-compatible and control texts (“Cont” M=3.64, SD=1.81; “AC” M=3.96, SD=1.77; t=-4.06, df=2033, p\u0026lt;.001, conf. int [-.47, -.17], d=-.18).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eComparing the low authoritarianism text and the control:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eThe focus of this experiment was the authoritarianism-compatible text, hence no hypotheses were pre-registered for the low authoritarianism (“LA”) text. Nonetheless, when comparing this text with the control , there were significant differences on the values question (“Cont” M=4.07, SD=1.56;­ “LA” M=4.47, SD=1.71; t=-5.47, df=2010, p\u0026lt;.001, conf int[-.54, -.26], d=-.24); on the EU immigration question (“Cont” M= 3.41, SD=1.83; “LA” M= 2.93, SD=1.72; t=6.03, df=1930, p\u0026lt;.001, conf. int [.33, .64], d=.27); on the immigration stock question (“Cont” M=3.79, SD=2.05; “LA” M=4.05, SD=2.05; t=-2.84, df=2018; p=.004, conf int [-.44, -.08], d=-.13), on the immigration flow question (“Cont” M=4.52, SD=1.78; “LA” M=4.30, \u0026nbsp;SD=1.82; t=2.80, df=2019, p=.005, conf int[.07, .38], d=.12), and on the composite immigration score (“Cont” M=3.64, SD=1.81; “LA” M=3.88, SD=1.84; t=-2.98, df=2019, p=.003, conf int [-.40, -.08], d=-.13).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis text did change attitudes but it was less effective than the authoritarianism-compatible text, as illustrated in Figs. 1-4.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDiscussion:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eThis study demonstrates with a large, nationally and politically representative sample that it is possible to make British attitudes towards immigration more positive. The three pre-registered hypotheses for Study 3 are therefore upheld. As compared to a control text, when British people are exposed to an authoritarianism-compatible text including factual material and an emotional appeal, they feel a greater sense of shared values with an immigrant, they are more positive about EU immigration and more positive about immigration overall.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn 2016, some politicians were wary about speaking up in favour of EU immigration. Here we show that an argument of 400 words can shift attitudes on EU immigration significantly. In the control condition, 53% said that EU immigration was a “Slightly good”, “Moderately good” or “Very good thing.” For those who read the treatment text, the equivalent percentage was 73% i.e. 20 percentage points higher than for those exposed to the control.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe study also suggests that some forms of argument are more effective than others. In Study 3, the authoritarianism-compatible text was more effective than the low authoritarianism text which deployed commonly used arguments about diversity. Both texts focused on an individual immigrant since research shows that it is easier to empathise with a single person than with many\u003csup\u003e36\u003c/sup\u003e. However in the authoritarianism-compatible text, the immigrant was described in reassuring terms as an unthreatening female engaged in a caring occupation who held traditional values and had integrated into the UK, speaking English well.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this final experiment, both treatment texts included identical factual information. The results show that it was not these arguments alone that shifted attitudes. If this had been the case, there would be no difference between the results for the authoritarianism-compatible text and the low authoritarianism text. The evidence presented here suggests that the strongest effect came from combining this factual information with the authoritarianism-compatible elements and the emotional appeal.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eA final point is that the authoritarianism-compatible text brought together elements that are sometimes tested in isolation, such as social norms messaging or messages framed in terms of particular personality traits (in this case, Conscientiousness). In this study, we constructed a persuasive text that is consistent with theorising that sees authoritarianism as an umbrella-type construct under which other psychological characteristics are grouped together in predictable ways. Further studies could explore in greater depth whether this combined approach to messaging is more effective than elements tested individually.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn summary, our results demonstrate that positive arguments can change British immigration attitudes in some contexts. On one level these results are not surprising, given that immigration attitudes have changed substantially in the UK in the last 10 years, which is often attributed to the salience of immigration in the media\u003csup\u003e37\u003c/sup\u003e. What our results show is that change can happen after exposure to a relatively short text, and that this is most effective when it combines shared values, evidence from trusted sources of information and an emotional appeal. This builds towards a body of evidence that people can persuaded by arguments incorporating reason when these are carefully constructed.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIt was outside of the scope of this work to evaluate what level of immigration is appropriate for any given country at any given time, and for ethical reasons we did not test whether it was possible to make attitudes more negative. However, in a world where climate-driven migration is rising, we think this work offers important insights for policy-makers and politicians in understanding what drives attitudes towards immigration and what arguments might be effective in changing those attitudes.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Procedure","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEthics:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eApproval was granted by the Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee (PRE.2022.075). All methods were carried out in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations. Informed consent was obtained from all subjects and/or their legal guardian(s).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePre-registrations were lodged on the Open Science Framework.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eParticipants:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eIn Study 1, 1,005 people were exposed to the control text and 999 were exposed to the treatment text. Payment was 75p for those in the treatment condition and £1.35 for those in the control condition, who answered additional questions after completing the experiment.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn Study 2, 1,006 people were exposed to the new treatment text. The sample was split evenly between men and women, and between those who voted Leave and Remain. Five were excluded for not filling in the dependent variables. They were paid 75p for a 5-minute survey. To generate responses on the EU attitudes question, the 1,005 people who had been exposed to the control text in Study 1 were approached again. A required response rate for these participants of 80% was pre-registered, with a cut-off date of four days after the launch of the data-gathering. 89% responded within the deadline (444 Leave voters and 447 Remain voters). Participants were paid 35p for a 2-minute survey.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn Study 3, YouGov recruited 3,067 participants (1,706 women) with an average age of 50.\u0026nbsp;YouGov supplied weights to make the survey nationally and politically representative. The participants were paid 50 YouGov points for taking part in the 5-minute survey.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eProcedure:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eAfter being asked for consent, each study began by asking participants who they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow, and if they thought the process of the UK leaving the EU (Brexit) was going well or badly. Exact responses are recorded in the documentation on the Open Science Framework. They reflected contemporaneous polls.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn Studies 1 and 2, participants responded to\u0026nbsp;the 6-item Very Short Authoritarianism (VSA) scale and the 8-item SDO-7 scale\u003csup\u003e38\u003c/sup\u003e. In Study 3, participants completed the VSA scale and the shorter 4-item SDO scale\u003csup\u003e39\u003c/sup\u003e. They were then exposed to the control or treatment texts.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eVariables:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eThe first dependent variable asked participants to choose which of seven increasingly overlapping circles best described the extent to which the fictitious immigrant shared their values (Fig. 5).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThese circles, numbered from 1 to 7, were based on the ‘Inclusion of Other in Self’ scale\u003csup\u003e40\u003c/sup\u003e. Since those exposed to the control condition would have very little detail about the immigrant, respondents were encouraged to go with their gut instinct. The exact wording was: ”Please select the pair of circles that best describes the extent to which Sonia shares or doesn't share your values. Please answer this question quickly. If you're not sure, or if there is not enough information, it's best to go with your gut instinct.” The responses were recorded on a 1-7 Likert scale. In Study 3, to avoid confusion, the score of 1 was additionally marked as “Doesn’t share at all” and a score of 7 was marked as “Shares completely”. \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEU immigration attitudes were tested in studies 2 and 3. Participants were asked: “Do you think immigration from EU countries is a good or bad thing for the UK?” In Study 2, a five-point scale was used, but in Study 3, a seven-point scale was used to avoid a potential ceiling effect. The response options were 1 = “Very good thing”, 2 = “Moderately good”, 3 = “Slightly good”, 4 = “Neither good nor bad”, 5 = “Slightly bad”, 6 = “Moderately bad”, 7 = “Very bad”, 8 = “Don’t know”. Those who responded “Don’t know” were excluded from the analysis. \u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAttitudes towards the stock of immigrants were measured with the following question with responses recorded on a 7-point Likert scale: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “There are too many immigrants in the UK right now”, with scores ranging from \u0026nbsp;1 = “Strongly agree” to 7 = “Strongly disagree”.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe fourth dependent variable measured attitudes towards the flow of immigrants. It was worded as follows: “Some people think that the UK should allow many more immigrants to come to the UK to live, and others think that the UK should allow fewer immigrants. Where would you place yourself on this scale?”. Responses were measured on a 7-point Likert scale ranging from 1 = “Many more” to 7 = “Many fewer”.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe final two questions were averaged to generate an overall immigration score (in the R code, the score for the immigration flow question is first reversed so that low scores on both questions indicate low support for immigration). At the end of the survey, participants were thanked and debriefed.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe pre-registration, data and code supporting the findings in this research can be found on the Open Science Framework on this link: https://osf.io/hbu5x/.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor contributions:\u003c/strong\u003e The study was carried out by Tessa Buchanan under the supervision of Lee de-Wit and Alan Renwick. The article was drafted by Tessa Buchanan with the assistance of Lee de-Wit and James Ackland. David Young and James Ackland assisted with advice on data analysis. \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare no competing interests.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eStandard Eurobarometer 100, Autumn 2023, www.eurobarometer.eu (28% of Europeans say immigration is one of \u0026ldquo;two most important issues facing the EU at the moment\u0026rdquo;) (accessed 19 February 2024). \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eYouGov (2024), Main political tracker for UK, 3-5 Feb 2024 (39% of people in Britain say immigration is \u0026ldquo;the most important issue facing the country at this time\u0026rdquo;. (accessed 19 February 2024). \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eYouGov (2024), Main political tracker for USA, 12 Feb 2024 (18.2% in USA say immigration is \u0026ldquo;the most important issue for you\u0026rdquo;) (accessed 19 February 2024).\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eCameron, D., (2019) For the Record William Collins, pp. 670-672. \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eKalla, J., Broockman, D.E., (2017), The Minimal Persuasive Effects of Campaign Contact in General Elections: Evidence from 49 Field Experiments (September 25, 2017). Forthcoming, American Political Science Review, Stanford University Graduate School of Business Research Paper No. 17-65, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3042867.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTappin, B. M., Wittenberg, C., Hewitt, L. B., Berinsky, A. J., \u0026amp; Rand, D. G. (2023). Quantifying the potential persuasive returns to political microtargeting. 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G., (2017). The dual process motivational model of ideology and prejudice. In C. G. Sibley \u0026amp; F. K. Barlow, (Eds.), The Cambridge handbook of the psychology of prejudice (pp. 188\u0026ndash;221). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316161579.009.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eZmigrod, L., Rentfrow, P., \u0026amp; Robbins, T., (2018). Cognitive underpinnings of nationalistic ideology in the context of Brexit.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115 (19), E4532-4540. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708960115.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAaroe, L., Petersen, M.B., Arceneaux, K., (2017) The Behavioral Immune System Shapes Political Intuitions: Why and How Individual Differences in Disgust Sensitivity Underlie Opposition to Immigration American Political Science Review, 111(2), 277-294.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDuckitt, J., Wagner, C., du Plessis, I., \u0026amp; Birum, I., (2002). The psychological bases of ideology and prejudice: Testing a dual process model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(1), 75\u0026ndash;93. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.83.1.75.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eKodapanakkal RI, Brandt MJ, Kogler C, van Beest I. (2022) Moral Frames Are Persuasive and Moralize Attitudes; Nonmoral Frames Are Persuasive and De-Moralize Attitudes. Psychol Sci. 2022 Mar;33(3):433-449. doi: 10.1177/09567976211040803. Epub 2022 Feb 25. PMID: 35213257.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eYouGov (2023) The most important issues facing the country www.yougov.co.uk (accessed April 2024). (As at 15 January 2023, 29% ranked Immigration \u0026amp; Asylum as the most important issue facing the country, as opposed to 65% for the Economy and 58% for Health). \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAllport, G. W., (1954/1979) The Nature of Prejudice Perseus Books Publishing LLC. pp.9, 15, 397. \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAristotle (350 BCE) The Art of Rhetoric translated by Robin Waterfield (2018) Oxford University Press. Location 1605. \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eOffice for Budgetary Responsibility, (2023) How are our Brexit forecasting assumptions performing? 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(2015). The nature of social dominance orientation: Theorizing and measuring preferences for intergroup inequality using the new SDO₇ scale. Journal of personality and social psychology, 109(6), 1003.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePratto, F. et al. (2013). Social Dominance in Context and in Individuals: Contextual Moderation of Robust Effects of Social Dominance Orientation in 15 Languages and 20 Countries. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 4(5), 587\u0026ndash;599. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550612473663.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAron, A., Aron, E. N., Smollan, D., (1992). Inclusion of other in the self scale and the structure of interpersonal closeness. Journal of personality and social psychology, 63(4), 596.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4949609/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4949609/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eImmigration has been a major point of contention for voters in 2024, a record year for elections, yet politicians rarely speak up in favour of it. Here we test with three studies (n=6,107) whether British attitudes towards immigration become more positive when participants are exposed to a short text written to be compatible with moderate levels of what political psychologists call ‘authoritarianism’. In the first study (n=2,004), participants report feeling that they share more values with a fictitious immigrant but this is not sufficient to change overall immigration attitudes. The second study (n=1,006) shows that when factual arguments and an emotional appeal are added to this text, this shifts attitudes towards immigration overall. The third study (n=3,097) confirms these results with a nationally and politically representative sample sourced from YouGov. These findings demonstrate that persuasion is possible on contentious issues like immigration, that immigration attitudes are not fixed, and that arguments in favour of immigration can be effective in the right context.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Can an authoritarianism-compatible argument lead to greater support for immigration?","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-10-18 10:23:28","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4949609/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-01-15T11:40:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-01-13T16:02:26+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"269476440342236945479359742796210252270","date":"2024-12-20T14:05:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-09-23T09:26:11+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"69945144702160901656223037027847544827","date":"2024-09-12T11:55:59+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-09-06T07:05:15+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-09-03T14:25:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2024-09-03T14:08:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-09-03T04:20:51+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2024-08-21T07:46:28+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"3ff988a8-d7ab-4fd9-a7c3-77582f636880","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 18th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":38063735,"name":"Biological sciences/Psychology"},{"id":38063736,"name":"Biological sciences/Psychology/Human behaviour"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-22T06:50:58+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4949609","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11491-z","journal":{"identity":"scientific-reports","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Scientific Reports"},"publishedOn":"2025-09-12 15:56:59","publishedOnDateReadable":"September 12th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-10-18 10:23:28","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41598-025-11491-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11491-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4949609","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4949609","identity":"rs-4949609","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}