A Dynamic Railway-Economy Causality Framework (DRECF): Examining the Relationship Between Railway Transportation and National Economic Development

A Dynamic Railway-Economy Causality Framework (DRECF): Examining the Relationship Between Railway Transportation and National Economic Development | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A Dynamic Railway-Economy Causality Framework (DRECF): Examining the Relationship Between Railway Transportation and National Economic Development Yixiang Zheng, Shengyou Wang, Dong Liu, Lukai Zhang, Meng Meng, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7056764/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Railway transportation serves as a critical infrastructure component that significantly influences national economic development. To objectively evaluate the economic benefits of railway transportation, a Dynamic Railway-Economy Causality Framework (DRECF) is proposed that examines the temporal relationships between railway development and national economic development. The framework employs four key quantitative indicators of railway development: railway mileage, passenger turnover, freight turnover, and railway investment, with GDP serving as the primary measure of national economic performance. The analysis incorporates lag period evaluation between these indicators to establish robust causal relationships using Granger causality testing methodology. Applying this framework to China's railway system and economic development, the study demonstrates that railway mileage, passenger transportation volume, and freight turnover constitute fundamental determinants of the indirect economic benefits generated by railway projects. The findings reveal bidirectional causality between railway mileage and national economic development, as well as between railway passenger turnover and economic development. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that the impact of railway freight transportation on the national economy exhibits stage-dependent variations, corresponding to the evolutionary patterns of transportation modes and the prevailing economic development levels during different periods. These insights provide valuable guidance for infrastructure investment decision-making and economic policy formulation. This study integrates interdisciplinary approaches from transportation engineering and economics, providing a novel theoretical framework for infrastructure economic assessment. Business and commerce/Economics Social science/Economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Transportation economy railway transportation national economic development Granger causality test Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7056764","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":499638645,"identity":"61706b5b-06dd-4511-840a-c0b288f596a7","order_by":0,"name":"Yixiang Zheng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"People's Public Security University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yixiang","middleName":"","lastName":"Zheng","suffix":""},{"id":499638646,"identity":"195b22b2-5e89-47dc-98e7-f5f51e1bf7b1","order_by":1,"name":"Shengyou Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"People's Public Security University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shengyou","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":499638647,"identity":"f128fcc7-f9fa-416f-a369-98ba7024326b","order_by":2,"name":"Dong Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"People's Public Security University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dong","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":499638648,"identity":"0cbd9c91-2815-45e3-a93a-436dbf91c948","order_by":3,"name":"Lukai Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCRBRkAAkGBsfMBgQrcUgAUgxNhuQqoWBTYIod8nPbn728ItBWp259OG2yh8Fd+QZ2A8f3YBPC+OcY+bGMgY5EpZ9iW23eQyeGTbwpKXdwKeFWSLBTFrCoELC4Axj220Gg8OMDRI8Zni1sEmkf4NrKfxhcNieoBYeiRwzyQ9Ah4G0MPAYHE4kqEVCIqdMmsEgTXJnD2OzNFBLchshv8jPSN8m+aMimd+ch/3hxx9/Dtv2sx8+hlcLCDDzAAl4JLIRUg4CjD+QtYyCUTAKRsEoQAcAx6JEAsAv/QsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Ministry of Transport","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lukai","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":499638649,"identity":"0f187dd2-f39b-4dd5-b79b-dfbbc947d6b6","order_by":4,"name":"Meng Meng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Bath","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Meng","middleName":"","lastName":"Meng","suffix":""},{"id":499638650,"identity":"5f35a778-68c3-4141-9f56-8f368d4ab858","order_by":5,"name":"Jie Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Bristol","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jie","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-06 08:53:06","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7056764/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7056764/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92285086,"identity":"1280c684-9d04-4247-adf8-783b5e837b73","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-26 18:16:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":805809,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ExaminingRailwayEconomicDevelopmentLink.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7056764/v1_covered_f7f8aa63-f98a-44e6-b168-c26418d63be6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Dynamic Railway-Economy Causality Framework (DRECF): Examining the Relationship Between Railway Transportation and National Economic Development","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Transportation economy, railway transportation, national economic development, Granger causality test","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7056764/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7056764/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRailway transportation serves as a critical infrastructure component that significantly influences national economic development. To objectively evaluate the economic benefits of railway transportation, a Dynamic Railway-Economy Causality Framework (DRECF) is proposed that examines the temporal relationships between railway development and national economic development. The framework employs four key quantitative indicators of railway development: railway mileage, passenger turnover, freight turnover, and railway investment, with GDP serving as the primary measure of national economic performance. The analysis incorporates lag period evaluation between these indicators to establish robust causal relationships using Granger causality testing methodology. Applying this framework to China's railway system and economic development, the study demonstrates that railway mileage, passenger transportation volume, and freight turnover constitute fundamental determinants of the indirect economic benefits generated by railway projects. 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