The Impact of Egg Quiescence on the Efficacy of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquito Releases for Arbovirus Control

The Impact of Egg Quiescence on the Efficacy of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquito Releases for Arbovirus Control | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Impact of Egg Quiescence on the Efficacy of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquito Releases for Arbovirus Control Luís Eduardo Dos Santos Lopes, Cláudia Pio Ferreira This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7096071/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract An ordinary differential model is proposed to understand the role of egg quiescence on the efficacy of releasing Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control arbovirus transmission. The model admits up to five equilibrium points and four biologically meaningful scenarios: extinction of both populations; persistence of the uninfected population with extinction of the infected one; persistence of the infected population with extinction of the uninfected one; and coexistence of both populations. This occurs because the coexistence scenario allows for bistability in the system. A sensitivity analysis shows that mosquitoes optimize their fitness by adjusting the quiescence rate. Because Wolbachia-infected eggs do not survive quiescence, or the adults that emerge are infertile, quiescence negatively impacts the fitness of infected mosquitoes, thereby reducing the prevalence of infection in the mosquito population. This increases the chance of encountering an uninfected mosquito, which is more likely to carry the dengue virus compared to a Wolbachia-infected one, potentially increasing the risk of dengue transmission during or after environmental stress that triggers quiescence. More importantly, quiescence can compromise the establishment of infection within the mosquito population by increasing the number of infected mosquitoes required during the release period. Therefore, the use of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control arbovirus transmission in regions where quiescence occurs at a high rate can be jeopardized. mathematical model ordinary differential equation stability analysis Wolbachia-infection prevalence risk of dengue transmission Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 18 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 18 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 18 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 10 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7096071","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":521790794,"identity":"338bd760-84bf-4fbf-b30b-b9e352135dd4","order_by":0,"name":"Luís Eduardo Dos Santos 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Control","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"thee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical Ecology](https://www.springer.com/journal/12080)","snPcode":"12080","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12080/3","title":"Theoretical Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"mathematical model, ordinary differential equation, stability analysis, Wolbachia-infection prevalence, risk of dengue transmission","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7096071/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7096071/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"An ordinary differential model is proposed to understand the role of egg quiescence on the efficacy of releasing Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control arbovirus transmission. The model admits up to five equilibrium points and four biologically meaningful scenarios: extinction of both populations; persistence of the uninfected population with extinction of the infected one; persistence of the infected population with extinction of the uninfected one; and coexistence of both populations. This occurs because the coexistence scenario allows for bistability in the system. A sensitivity analysis shows that mosquitoes optimize their fitness by adjusting the quiescence rate. Because Wolbachia-infected eggs do not survive quiescence, or the adults that emerge are infertile, quiescence negatively impacts the fitness of infected mosquitoes, thereby reducing the prevalence of infection in the mosquito population. This increases the chance of encountering an uninfected mosquito, which is more likely to carry the dengue virus compared to a Wolbachia-infected one, potentially increasing the risk of dengue transmission during or after environmental stress that triggers quiescence. More importantly, quiescence can compromise the establishment of infection within the mosquito population by increasing the number of infected mosquitoes required during the release period. Therefore, the use of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control arbovirus transmission in regions where quiescence occurs at a high rate can be jeopardized.","manuscriptTitle":"The Impact of Egg Quiescence on the Efficacy of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquito Releases for Arbovirus Control","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-29 18:01:02","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7096071/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-19T03:13:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-12T18:25:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"269159790614701059053889061953394059974","date":"2025-09-21T00:46:40+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-18T15:25:56+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-07-18T11:56:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-07-18T11:52:57+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Theoretical Ecology","date":"2025-07-10T20:46:02+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"thee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical Ecology](https://www.springer.com/journal/12080)","snPcode":"12080","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12080/3","title":"Theoretical Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8669a20b-d89d-4a77-abd1-2346131d6047","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 29th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-16T01:24:05+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-29 18:01:02","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7096071","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7096071","identity":"rs-7096071","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}