A simple model of decision-making in the application process

A simple model of decision-making in the application process | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A simple model of decision-making in the application process Fanyuan Meng, Hui Xiao, Xinlin Wu, Xiaojun Hu, Xiaojie Niu, Sheng Chen, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4621637/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In decision-making, individuals often rely on intuition, which can occasionally yield suboptimal outcomes. This study examines the impact of intuitive decision-making on individuals who are confronted with limited position information in the job application process. We propose a measure, the mismatch index, that gauges allocation efficiency by comparing the final application rate to the preset admission rate. By simulation and analytical results, we counter-intuitively find that under the intuitive strategy, acquiring more information does not always lead to more efficient allocation. Furthermore, our research reveals a noteworthy shift from pessimism to intensified competition when the initial application rate exceeds the admission rate, a trend substantiated by observations from field experiments. Additionally, empirical data unveil individual variations in the reliance on intuition, suggesting the existence of inherent adventurous and conservative inclinations. To accommodate these nuances, we introduce an enhancement factor into our model, resulting in improved alignment with real-world data. Notably, our findings underscore that, compared to scenarios characterized by moderate competitiveness, individuals exhibit a stronger inclination towards conservatism in contexts marked by fierce competition or diminished rivalry. These insights offer valuable implications for resource allocation dynamics, particularly within the competitive landscape of the job market. Biological sciences/Biophysics/Computational biophysics Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics/Computational models Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4621637","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":326645236,"identity":"ea802772-26bb-4bd6-8548-7fab1945eb40","order_by":0,"name":"Fanyuan Meng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hangzhou Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fanyuan","middleName":"","lastName":"Meng","suffix":""},{"id":326645237,"identity":"08de5fa1-dde1-4730-91be-3348585d6619","order_by":1,"name":"Hui Xiao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hui","middleName":"","lastName":"Xiao","suffix":""},{"id":326645239,"identity":"c092aa0a-c1a6-475a-a495-9cb3ae25f721","order_by":2,"name":"Xinlin Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xinlin","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""},{"id":326645241,"identity":"308bcdb2-5cac-4fdf-90f4-ca7f2962ca89","order_by":3,"name":"Xiaojun Hu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaojun","middleName":"","lastName":"Hu","suffix":""},{"id":326645244,"identity":"917b008b-ecf4-48e0-bc85-f33a44128658","order_by":4,"name":"Xiaojie Niu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaojie","middleName":"","lastName":"Niu","suffix":""},{"id":326645245,"identity":"3aaae1a2-85a7-4849-8e54-416b5437ca6e","order_by":5,"name":"Sheng Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":326645248,"identity":"940e081a-f331-40dc-b1df-f6f1efc13e4c","order_by":6,"name":"Yu Liu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA7UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHAD5oYDDBUHwEwJojTwMDACtZwhVQsDYxsRWgxuJDA+rtxhY2/PwNh4mHfenTyDA8wHb/Mw2OXh0cJsePZMWmIP0JbDvNueFRscYEu25mFILsajhU2yse1wAg9Ey+HEDQd4zKR5GA4kNuDWwv6zse2/PUTLHJAW/m+EtLAxNrYdYIQ4rAFsCxteLZJnHjYDHZac2HOYseHgnGPPEmceZjO2nGOQjFML3/Hkgx8b2+zs2dubD394U3Mnse9488MbbyrscGpROMAIlWKGCYEZBjjUA4E8LrNGwSgYBaNgFMABAHtdXFihUzLuAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yu","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-06-22 11:09:06","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4621637/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4621637/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":63234302,"identity":"97179f66-a863-42d0-acde-1713bd536e0e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-26 02:34:08","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":319524,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4621637/v1_covered_c5ee4c3d-96dc-4cd3-91c0-6c15809ac915.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A simple model of decision-making in the application process","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4621637/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4621637/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"In decision-making, individuals often rely on intuition, which can occasionally yield suboptimal outcomes. 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