How people interpret projections of future climate change depends on what they think is most likely to happen

Understanding the uncertainty inherent in climate projections is crucial for robust future planning and decision-making. In a series of behavioural experiments, we show that people interpret identical projected future temperature ranges (e.g., 4℃ to 7.2℃ by 2100), differently as a function of their optimism or pessimism about the path that future emissions will take (current, best or worst-case). The presence of these biases raises important implications for the communication of climate futures.