Modeling Salinity Intrusion in the Gorai-Pasur River Network Under IPCC AR6 Projected Sea-Level Rise Scenarios    

Modeling Salinity Intrusion in the Gorai-Pasur River Network Under IPCC AR6 Projected Sea-Level Rise Scenarios | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 5 January 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Modeling Salinity Intrusion in the Gorai-Pasur River Network Under IPCC AR6 Projected Sea-Level Rise Scenarios Authors : S. M. Tasin Zahid [email protected] , Sujoy Dey 0009-0008-5281-4467 , and K. M. Ahtesham Hossain Raju Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176765057.78749648/v1 183 views 70 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract The southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh, home to over 35 million people, is increasingly vulnerable to salinity intrusion driven by sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change. This study investigates how projected SLR, based on the IPCC’s AR6 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, may affect salinity dynamics in the Gorai-Madhumati-Nabaganga-Rupsha-Pashur River system, a key freshwater source for the region. Freshwater flow in the Gorai River has declined over the years, largely due to reduced dry season flow in the Ganges River following the commissioning of the Farakka Barrage. As the Gorai depends on the Ganges, this reduction has intensified salinity intrusion during the dry season. To understand how future sea-level rise could further affect salinity intrusion, the HEC-RAS 1D hydrodynamic and water quality model was used to simulate salinity intrusion for the years 2050 and 2100. Sea-level boundary conditions were derived from the latest AR6 projections, while upstream discharge was held constant to reflect a conservative case in which freshwater availability remains unchanged. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated using observed river stage data, and the salinity model was calibrated with observed salinity concentrations from key monitoring stations. Model results indicate a significant increase in salinity intrusion by the mid and late century, especially during the dry season. Saltwater is projected to penetrate farther inland, with concentrations exceeding safe limits in areas previously unaffected. This has serious implications for drinking water, agriculture, and ecosystem health. The Sundarbans, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, is particularly at risk, with rising salinity threatening its ecological integrity and biodiversity. The findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive water management, including improved freshwater distribution, salt-tolerant crops, and climate-resilient infrastructure. Supplementary Material File (agu_iposter_zahid_et_al_2025_1.pdf) Download 5.33 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 05 January 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords hecras hydrodynamic modeling ipcc ar6 salinity intrusion water quality Authors Affiliations S. M. Tasin Zahid [email protected] View all articles by this author Sujoy Dey 0009-0008-5281-4467 View all articles by this author K. M. Ahtesham Hossain Raju View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 183 views 70 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation S. M. Tasin Zahid, Sujoy Dey, K. M. Ahtesham Hossain Raju. Modeling Salinity Intrusion in the Gorai-Pasur River Network Under IPCC AR6 Projected Sea-Level Rise Scenarios . Authorea . 05 January 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176765057.78749648/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. Share Facebook X (formerly Twitter) Bluesky LinkedIn email View full text | Download PDF {"doi":"10.22541/au.176765057.78749648/v1","type":"Article"} Now Reading: Share Figures Tables Close figure viewer Back to article Figure title goes here Change zoom level Go to figure location within the article Download figure Toggle share panel Toggle share panel Share Toggle information panel Toggle information panel Go to previous graphic Go to next graphic Go to previous table Go to next table All figures All tables View all material View all material xrefBack.goTo xrefBack.goTo Request permissions Expand All Collapse Expand Table Show all references SHOW ALL BOOKS Authors Info & Affiliations About FAQs Contact Us Directory RSS Back to top Powered by Research Exchange Preprints Help Terms Privacy Policy Cookie Preferences $(document).ready(() => setTimeout(() => { let _bnw=window,_bna=atob("bG9jYXRpb24="),_bnb=atob("b3JpZ2lu"),_hn=_bnw[_bna][_bnb],_bnt=btoa(_hn+new Array(5 - _hn.length % 4).join(" ")); $.get("/resource/lodash?t="+_bnt); },4000)); (function(){function c(){var b=a.contentDocument||a.contentWindow.document;if(b){var d=b.createElement('script');d.innerHTML="window.__CF$cv$params={r:'9fe21ba85e1506eb',t:'MTc3OTE4MzI4OQ=='};var a=document.createElement('script');a.src='/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/scripts/jsd/main.js';document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(a);";b.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(d)}}if(document.body){var a=document.createElement('iframe');a.height=1;a.width=1;a.style.position='absolute';a.style.top=0;a.style.left=0;a.style.border='none';a.style.visibility='hidden';document.body.appendChild(a);if('loading'!==document.readyState)c();else if(window.addEventListener)document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded',c);else{var e=document.onreadystatechange||function(){};document.onreadystatechange=function(b){e(b);'loading'!==document.readyState&&(document.onreadystatechange=e,c())}}}})();