Mass loss from Thwaites Glacier continues even without ocean melting | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Brief Communication Mass loss from Thwaites Glacier continues even without ocean melting C Williams, Matt Trevers, Sainan Sun, Paul Holland, David Bett, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8660051/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate Antarctica's sea-level contribution, but it is unclear whether their ice loss is driven by ongoing ocean forcing or a historical perturbation. Here, we remove ocean forcing in three ice-sheet models, finding that Pine Island re-advances, but Thwaites continues to lose ice. Thwaites is responding to a historical perturbation, and its historical mass loss cannot be reversed by ocean cooling alone over centennial, policy-relevant timescales. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8660051","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Brief Communication","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":578729990,"identity":"c5857c5e-9384-4ad5-b50b-54bfa9b39664","order_by":0,"name":"C Williams","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAq0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCebGAwkVB2DcBGK0MDYceHCGVC0HH7aRooV/dmPDgcR5d+TlG5gffmBsSyPCkjsHgVq2PTPccIDNWIKxLYewFgOJRJCWw4wbGBjMGBjbKojVMuew/fwG9m+kaGk4DCR5QLYQ4TCJG0DFCceeJW84zFMskXCOCO/zz0g++PBHzR3b+e3tGz98KEsmrAUBmBmIi8hRMApGwSgYBUQAACIwQVdNkuRfAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8131-4946","institution":"British Antarctic Survey (NERC)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"C","middleName":"","lastName":"Williams","suffix":""},{"id":578729991,"identity":"e4e72d55-2e06-49e2-a47c-1f9753efb9c8","order_by":1,"name":"Matt Trevers","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Bristol","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matt","middleName":"","lastName":"Trevers","suffix":""},{"id":578729992,"identity":"83715a86-bf63-4c22-8c74-6f5c93d2fa43","order_by":2,"name":"Sainan Sun","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Northumbria University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sainan","middleName":"","lastName":"Sun","suffix":""},{"id":578729993,"identity":"0cb2f7ca-cf27-45a8-a842-22e9a745bf92","order_by":3,"name":"Paul Holland","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8370-289X","institution":"British Antarctic Survey","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paul","middleName":"","lastName":"Holland","suffix":""},{"id":578729994,"identity":"6d15fbee-5bec-4e53-948d-9a14155b89b2","order_by":4,"name":"David Bett","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3118-9902","institution":"British Antarctic Survey","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Bett","suffix":""},{"id":578729995,"identity":"2d088fcd-ec8b-49f7-a1f0-57745a87fde1","order_by":5,"name":"Robert Arthern","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"British Antarctic Survey","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"Arthern","suffix":""},{"id":578729996,"identity":"ff7f9641-34a4-4225-89df-a4d48394733e","order_by":6,"name":"Alexander Bradley","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kings College London","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alexander","middleName":"","lastName":"Bradley","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-21 12:56:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8660051/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8660051/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102294881,"identity":"5d0b1e2b-3cd9-4ece-ac3a-9c980526dfa6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-10 10:02:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":506646,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"MasslossfromThwaitesGlaciercontinuesevenwithoutoceanmeltingWilliamsetal2026.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8660051/v1_covered_1d449aa8-d941-410f-8a45-fd6f7e01affb.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Mass loss from Thwaites Glacier continues even without ocean melting","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"
[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8660051/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8660051/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate Antarctica's sea-level contribution, but it is unclear whether their ice loss is driven by ongoing ocean forcing or a historical perturbation. Here, we remove ocean forcing in three ice-sheet models, finding that Pine Island re-advances, but Thwaites continues to lose ice. Thwaites is responding to a historical perturbation, and its historical mass loss cannot be reversed by ocean cooling alone over centennial, policy-relevant timescales.","manuscriptTitle":"Mass loss from Thwaites Glacier continues even without ocean melting","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-03 12:32:04","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8660051/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"
[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"a95930c4-5509-46a5-a1ad-0bddb3061e8e","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 3rd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":61577292,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science"},{"id":61577293,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-03T15:30:44+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-03 12:32:04","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8660051","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8660051","identity":"rs-8660051","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}
Text is read by the "Ask this paper" AI Q&A widget below.
Extraction quality varies by source — PMC NXML preserves structure
cleanly, OA-HTML may include some navigation residue, and OA-PDF can
have broken hyphenation. The publisher copy
(via DOI)
is the canonical version.