Indo-Pacific coral reef sponge diversity declines under predicted future ocean conditions

Indo-Pacific coral reef sponge diversity declines under predicted future ocean conditions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Indo-Pacific coral reef sponge diversity declines under predicted future ocean conditions Jan Vicente, Christopher Jury, Molly Timmers, Maryann Webb, Keisha Bahr, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8664280/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Future oceans are predicted to favor groups like sponges over calcifying taxa such as scleractinian corals. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining the development of coral reef communities in experimental mesocosms over 23 months. 85 sponge species among the calcifying class Calcarea (~33%), and non-calcifying Demospongiae (~60%) and Homoscleromorpha (<10%) recruited to warming (+2°C), acidification (-0.2 pH), and warming+acidification (+2°C, -0.2 pH) future ocean treatments. The diversity of calcifying sponges was unimpacted across any treatment, whereas non-calcifying classes showed greatest declines. 57-66% of demosponges decreased under future ocean conditions, and homoscleromorphs were entirely absent from acidified treatments. Through the sponge loop, sponges play a fundamental role in coral reef nutrient cycling, and altered coral reef community composition likely has functional consequences. This study challenges the assumption that non-calcifying species are less impacted and highlights the importance of understanding how community composition may alter ecosystem functioning under future ocean conditions. Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology/Phenology Biological sciences/Evolution/Taxonomy climate change Porifera cryptobenthic biodiversity loss Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.pdf Supplementary material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8664280","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":579544467,"identity":"c5a41874-98f6-4cdd-bd40-ebdae677113e","order_by":0,"name":"Jan Vicente","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4UlEQVRIie2PsQrCMBRFAw/S5UHXiKK/UAmIoPgtgUKmdHAXF8FJnAV/wqmzENTJPYOLFBychIIIgtoIOrYZBXPg5S73JHmEeDy/CHwD1kWyhqMibFBhFXR8ypYJRu+zshzt4JgNb/0gXM7ysxl1kQR6sypVNOV8ISSwwz7tqW3xMZTSlCm1CdI6Cg3EJClXtFAYdqqU4I7iCS2jTlw9HJQQkAKKNURGQZZMnRTK6yhjaBvZgWTOkFbtQkN9zLE/iJsmznJ1HTfDQG9LlQ+x1dn7Epe6ZVAMXFzbHo/H81+8AJW8PUxrSai4AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Hawaiʻi Institute of Marine Biology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jan","middleName":"","lastName":"Vicente","suffix":""},{"id":579544468,"identity":"6b45ec5b-9548-4ccb-b413-2ef5d61691a7","order_by":1,"name":"Christopher Jury","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hawaiʻ","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christopher","middleName":"","lastName":"Jury","suffix":""},{"id":579544471,"identity":"1acfca8a-3536-4d46-a1fe-e56fa4c37d8c","order_by":2,"name":"Molly Timmers","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Molly","middleName":"","lastName":"Timmers","suffix":""},{"id":579544476,"identity":"78fd3916-863e-4b76-85f9-6afe5274b226","order_by":3,"name":"Maryann Webb","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maryann","middleName":"","lastName":"Webb","suffix":""},{"id":579544479,"identity":"33bf5186-c102-4cd2-9d7b-f955df999d88","order_by":4,"name":"Keisha Bahr","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Texas A\u0026M University, Corpus Christi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Keisha","middleName":"","lastName":"Bahr","suffix":""},{"id":579544481,"identity":"68600732-baad-433f-8dcb-bade298e973a","order_by":5,"name":"Robert Toonen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"Toonen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-22 02:05:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8664280/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8664280/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101751447,"identity":"5c816839-80a4-414d-967d-facc6e2fa81a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 10:20:23","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":847164,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Manuscript01212025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8664280/v1_covered_d87ff286-fa0b-49b2-b1d4-ee546a462f80.pdf"},{"id":101468542,"identity":"40b51285-0614-46a4-9710-1c2c8de74722","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-30 04:37:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1520943,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary material","description":"","filename":"Supplementarymaterial.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8664280/v1/9604f45c963cfabafbdbc3b0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Indo-Pacific coral reef sponge diversity declines under predicted future ocean conditions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"climate change, Porifera, cryptobenthic, biodiversity loss","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8664280/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8664280/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Future oceans are predicted to favor groups like sponges over calcifying taxa such as scleractinian corals. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining the development of coral reef communities in experimental mesocosms over 23 months. 85 sponge species among the calcifying class Calcarea (~33%), and non-calcifying Demospongiae (~60%) and Homoscleromorpha (\u003c10%) recruited to warming (+2°C), acidification (-0.2 pH), and warming+acidification (+2°C, -0.2 pH) future ocean treatments. The diversity of calcifying sponges was unimpacted across any treatment, whereas non-calcifying classes showed greatest declines. 57-66% of demosponges decreased under future ocean conditions, and homoscleromorphs were entirely absent from acidified treatments. Through the sponge loop, sponges play a fundamental role in coral reef nutrient cycling, and altered coral reef community composition likely has functional consequences. This study challenges the assumption that non-calcifying species are less impacted and highlights the importance of understanding how community composition may alter ecosystem functioning under future ocean conditions.","manuscriptTitle":"Indo-Pacific coral reef sponge diversity declines under predicted future ocean conditions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-30 04:36:58","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8664280/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"communications-biology","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"commsbio","sideBox":"Learn more about [Communications Biology](http://www.nature.com/commsbio/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Communications Biology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Communications Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"42f50e97-89b8-43e9-809e-145ed09f0ce2","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 30th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":61666387,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology/Phenology"},{"id":61666388,"name":"Biological sciences/Evolution/Taxonomy"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-20T18:31:08+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-30 04:36:58","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8664280","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8664280","identity":"rs-8664280","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}