What will the future bring? – Socio-economic challenges to herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi, Mongolia

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Michler, Petra Kaczensky, Daginnas Batsukh, Anna C. Treydte This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743895/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Human Ecology → Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Nomadic pastoralism is still practiced by around one-third of the Mongolian population. Recent socio-economic constraints have challenged pastoral livelihoods and led to declines in herder household numbers. Meanwhile, livestock numbers have risen countrywide, threatening overall rangeland health and biodiversity conservation. In the Mongolian Gobi, herder families fully depend on livestock production. Little is known about the current and future trends of their livelihoods and its compatibility with protected area goals to reduce livestock numbers. We combined data from semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions in the Great Gobi B strictly protected area with secondary data on regional and national herder household income and livestock numbers. We determined the importance of social networks, the willingness to continue a herding lifestyle, and the involvement of herders in the protected area management. Our data confirmed that herding is no longer centred around a subsistence lifestyle but rather around cashmere production. Herder families are currently still increasing livestock numbers, which is counter to protected area goals. Costs for education, health care, travelling, and modern communication are high in the economic reality of a market economy and drive the need to increase livestock numbers. Most of the young herder generation are employed urban centres with limited time to support the family herding household. Herders, despite valuing pastures within protected areas, faced challenges due to inadequate communication and conflicting livestock numbers goals. We conclude that herders in the Great Gobi B SPA are reaching livestock numbers which are neither socio-economically nor ecologically sustainable. Pastoralism Dzungarian Gobi Livestock numbers Protected area management Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 1 Introduction Nomadic pastoralism worldwide Extensive livestock husbandry on rangelands is important for the livelihoods and food security of millions of people (Lund, 2007 ), with nomadic pastoralism practiced by around 20 million herder households worldwide (FAO, 2001 ). Nomadic pastoralism has been practiced over millennia, especially in arid regions unsuitable for other agricultural production (Godde et al., 2020 ). However, changes in socio-economic conditions result in shifts from nomadic to sessile forms of livestock grazing and increased rural-urban migration, trends which can be observed in many rangeland systems globally (Dyer et al., 2022 ; Wafula et al., 2022 ). In addition, climatic extremes are challenging this traditional lifestyle particularly in the most arid rangelands (Fernández-Giménez et al., 2017 ). While rangelands are studied widely (Addison et al., 2012 ; Godde et al., 2020 ), herders livelihood trends are poorly understood resulting in inadequate policy decisions (Johnsen et al., 2021 ). We looked at the socio-economic position of herder households in a remote and arid region where nomadic pastoralism is the main livelihood strategy. Socio-economic changes of pastoral livelihoods In Mongolia, one-third of the population practice pastoral livelihoods (Mongolian Statistical Information Service, 2023 ) but the livestock sector in Mongolia has been under change multiple times in the last century. Over more than 60 years, all herder households were part of livestock collectives and herded state-owned animals for a salary (Fernández-Giménez, 1999 ). With the end of the soviet-collective era many people returned to herding at the family level (Dyer et al., 2022 ; Fernández-Giménez et al., 2017 ; Meurs et al., 2017 ). Privatization and the development of an export market for cashmere wool has led to a shift from a subsistence to a market economy (Meurs et al., 2017 ), where herders have increased their livestock, especially the number of cashmere goats (Berger et al., 2013 ; Wei & Zhen, 2020 ). Fluctuating cashmere prices and the unpredictable and harsh climate are challenging for the economy of herder households (Sternberg, 2008 ) and have increased livelihood vulnerability (Marin, 2019 ), while the rising livestock numbers put increasing pressure on the fragile rangelands threatening pasture health and the long-term viability of the pastoral economy (Addison & Brown, 2014 ). Living in a modern market economy is expensive as public services are no longer free and many herder households in remote, rural areas have limited access to healthcare (WHO, 2021 ) and education (Ahearn & Bumochir, 2016 ; Steiner-Khamsi & Gerelmaa, 2008 ); around 30% of the rural Mongolian population live below the poverty line (World Bank, 2019 ). To understand the rural situation regarding livestock numbers and herder household economics we investigated to what extent herder households in a remote and arid region of south-western Mongolia, the Dzungarian Gobi, depend on livestock and livestock products in comparison with national and regional trends. Along with the shift from subsistence to a market economy, labour previously shared within the extended family is increasingly outsourced to contracted herders (Murphy, 2015 ). However, especially in remote areas the importance of kinship relations and social networks for herder household livelihoods remains high even today (Conte, 2022 ; Fernández-Giménez et al., 2017 ; Ichinkhorloo, 2018 ). To better understand the importance of social relations and shared labour in the Dzungarian Gobi, we identified daily and seasonal routines and how tasks were shared within the herder households. The increased rural-urban migration of especially younger Mongolians to seek labour or higher education (Park et al., 2017 ), has resulted in declining herder household numbers, a trend that could potentially reduce overall grazing pressure, but may also alter the livestock grazing sector from a nomadic family centred to a large-scale ranching style grazing system (Fernández-Giménez et al., 2017 ). Socio-economic constrains already force many herder households to abandon the nomadic family centred lifestyle during winter, when women live with school children in district or provincial centres where the schools are located, and men stay in the countryside to herd the livestock (Ahearn, 2018 ). These social changes result in increased livelihood costs, which in turn result in rising livestock numbers, absentee herders, and increasing social inequality (Fernández-Giménez et al., 2017 ). We interviewed herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi to understand current ongoing social changes. Pastoralism practiced within protected areas Livestock numbers are on the rise globally (FAO, 2022 ), and land-use conflicts in or close to protected areas are increasing (DeFries et al., 2007 ). In Mongolia, livestock grazing is also practiced within most protected areas, posing challenges for biodiversity conservation, wildlife management (Kaczensky et al., 2020 ; Salvatori et al., 2021 ) and rangeland health (Fernández-Giménez et al., 2018 ). The currently high livestock numbers (Mongolian Statistical Information Service, 2023 ) are not only threatening pasture productivity and biodiversity, but also, the nomadic herding culture depending on these very rangelands (Sainnemekh et al., 2022 ) and make herding communities more vulnerable to climate extremes (Sternberg, 2008 ). Protected areas are increasingly perceived and used as emergency pastures during droughts and harsh winter conditions (Bedunah & Schmidt, 2004 ; Hess et al., 2010 ), putting additional pressures on sensitive ecosystems during times when resources are already scarce and creating social conflicts (Bedunah & Angerer, 2012 ; Bedunah & Schmidt, 2004 ). However, both local herding communities and protected areas aim for healthy and diverse pastures and local communities can be powerful allies for the protection of pasturelands (Bedunah & Angerer, 2012 ; Hess et al., 2010 ). Involvement of local communities in biodiversity monitoring and protected area decision making can mitigate conflict by focussing on common goals and finding a common knowledge base (Xu et al., 2006 ). Nevertheless, the involvement of natural resource users in protected area (PA) management can be challenging for both sides (Namsrai et al., 2019 ) and we asked local herders about how they perceive using pastures in Great Gobi B SPA and to what extent they are informed about or involved in the PA management decisions. Pastoral livelihoods in the Dzungarian Gobi In the Dzungarian Gobi, around 280 families have seasonal access to the Great Gobi B SPA (Altansukh Nanjid, director of the Great Gobi B SPA, personal comm. 2023), which is also an important refuge for several rare and endangered wildlife and plants species, several of which are endemic (Sundev et al., 2018 ). The herder households are allowed to use the pastures in the limited use zone in winter, based on contracts with the protected area (Altansukh Nanjid, director of the Great Gobi B SPA, pers. comm. 2023). So far, there is little evidence for pasture degradation, which is likely due to the combined effect of the non-equilibrium nature of the pastures (von Wehrden et al., 2012 ) and the high mobility of the nomadic herders (Michler et al., 2022 ). However, with rising livestock numbers in combination with fodder provision, there is concern over pasture degradation, as high grazing intensity is known to lower plant species diversity, biomass and vegetation cover (Menezes et al., 2020 ; Munkhzul et al., 2021 ), alter soil parameters (Abdalla et al., 2018 ; Zhang et al., 2022 ), and lead to soil erosion (Dong et al., 2022 ). In addition, rising livestock numbers could potentially increase competition with wild ungulates for resources (Niamir-Fuller et al., 2012 ), reduce wildlife numbers (Prins, 2000 ), raise the risk for disease transmission between wild and domestic ungulates (Dayaram et al., 2021 ), and lead to displacement of wildlife by herders, their livestock and their guarding dogs (Kaczensky et al., 2007 ). On the other hand, herders are also allies in the protection of pasture lands from other uses such as mining and have strongly supported the extension of Great Gobi B SPA to twice its original size in 2019 (Sansarbayar, 2019 ). Local herders are therefore important partners for the Great Gobi B SPA, but sustainable use and biodiversity conservation require that livestock numbers and distribution are controlled. Understanding the socio-economic constraints and needs of local herders is an important first step for developing recommendations for natural resource use by herders and their livestock in the protected area. In this study, we use semi-structured interviews to describe the socio-economic situation of the herders who use the Great Gobi B SPA on their annual migration routes. Within the context of the regional and country-wide socio-economic trends over the last 20 years, we ask the following questions: How many domestic animals and which animal species do local herder households in the Great Gobi B herd and what herd sizes do herders need to maintain their livelihoods? What is the current economic situation of herder households in comparison to regional and country-wide trends? How are different labour tasks divided within herder households and how important are social networks under the ongoing socio-economic changes? What is the perception of herders on using pasture resources in Great Gobi B SPA and their involvement in Great Gobi B SPA’s management decisions? Based on the above questions, we discuss recommendations for pastoral livelihoods in the Great Gobi B SPA under reduced livestock numbers to sustainably manage the pasture resources for wildlife and pastoral livelihoods in the future. 2 Material and Methods Study site The Great Gobi B SPA was established in the year 1975 as strictly protected area and was registered in 1991 as UNESCO Man and Biosphere reserve (UNESCO, 2020 ). Since the expansion to double its size in 2019, the protected area spans over 18’000 km² across two provinces (Khovd and Govi-Altai) and five districts (called “Soum” in Mongolian; Fig. 1 ; Sansarbayar, 2019 ). Around 280 herders and their livestock, namely (in decreasing order of importance) goats ( Capra aegagrus hircus ) and sheep ( Ovis aries ), cattle ( Bos taurus turano mongolicus ), horses ( Equus ferus caballus ), camels ( Camelus bactrianus ), and yaks ( Bos grunniens ) have seasonal access to the limited use zone of the protected area (Michler et al., 2022 ), while the core and protected zones are exclusively reserved for wildlife. Rare and endangered focal wildlife species of Great Gobi B SPA include the Przewalski horse ( Equus ferus przewalskii ), Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus) , goitered gazelle ( Gazella subgutturosa ), Argali sheep ( Ovis ammon ), Siberian ibex ( Capra sibirica ), and the snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ; Clark et al., 2006 ; Kaczensky et al., 2007 ). In this semi-desert and desert steppe, people, livestock and wildlife cope with a harsh, continental climate characterized by extreme temperature differences of up to 80°C between summer and winter, and highly variable precipitation (Von Wehrden et al., 2009 ). Herder household interviews We conducted semi-structured interviews (Kallio et al., 2016 ) with 125 different herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA in autumn 2017 and 2018 (Online Resource 1 and 2), which represented 96% of all herder households, who used seasonal camp locations within the protected area at that time (note: the study started before the extension of GGB SPA in 2019 to the extension shown in Fig. 1 ). The herder households were found with the help of the Great Gobi B SPA rangers. The interview questions were structured into household information, livestock situation and economic conditions to understand local pastoral livelihoods. Before the interviews, we informed the participants about the aim of the study and obtained informed consent through the signature of the interviewee (Nijhawan et al., 2013 ). Interviews were conducted in Mongolian and translated into English. In most cases the household heads (married couples) were interviewed together. The average age of our local household heads was 46 (± 12) years for men (N = 120) and 44 (± 12) for women (N = 121). The herder households had on average 4 (± 2) children with an average age of 17 (± 10) years. Survey on herders’ involvement in protect area management During three focus group discussions in November 2019, described in more detail in Michler et al. ( 2022 ), we asked 36 participants (11 women and 25 men) to fill in a survey about questions related to the information exchange between the pastoral community and the PA management. Questions covered the state of collaboration between the protected area administration and the local herder households, conflicts between the stakeholders, and challenges regarding co-operation for conservation, and participating in certain management decisions concerning sustainable pasture use in the protected area and were based on Batsukh & Benediktsson ( 2019 ; Online Resource 3–5). Focus group discussion To learn more about future perspectives of herding, we conducted one focus group discussion with three female and six male “young herders” (defined as being below 35 years of age), who were on average 27 (± 5) years old, in autumn 2019. The focus group discussion was led by a moderator and an assistant (Krueger, 2014 ) with the aim to understand the challenges and visions of young herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA. During the focus group discussion, we took notes simultaneously in Mongolian and English. We asked each participant to answer six general questions as background information (Online Resource 6) and divided the participants into three groups (two men and one woman each). Then we asked the groups to discuss and answer seven questions jointly under different perspectives: (1) livestock husbandry, (2) pasture use, and (3) social and household aspects (Online Resource 7 and 8). The focus group was very small and became available opportunistically and hence we only present this data in the Online Resource and discussion. Secondary data on national herder household and livestock data We used data from the Mongolian National Statistics Office (2023) to obtain national and regional trends in livestock numbers, livestock species distribution, monetary expenditures and income, as well as overall population, education and herder household numbers (Fig. 2 ). To illustrate trends in household living costs, we used the Consumer Price Index of Mongolia (Mongolian Statistical Information Service, 2023 ), a measurement to show changes in consumer prices over time based on a representative basket of goods and services (Fernando, 2024 ). We compared the Consumer Price Index with data on national and regional prices for “brown greasy cashmere” (Fig. 2 ). For national trends, we used averages over all of Mongolian and for regional trends, we selected data from the two Mongolian provinces Khovd and Govi-Altai, or of the five districts, which intersect Great Gobi B (Fig. 1 ). As local data, we defined the information of our own interviews (N = 125) in the Great Gobi B SPA in 2018. Data analysis Data from structured and semi-structured questionnaires was analysed descriptively reporting percentages, means and standard deviations. Answers to the open-ended question in the focus group discussion were reported by main categories that emerged according to Okoko et al. ( 2023 ). 3 Results Herd sizes needed for maintaining pastoral livelihoods In Mongolia, a total of 71,120,433 livestock (goats, sheep, horses, cattle, yaks, and camels) were reported for 248,296 herder households (286 livestock per herder household) for the year 2022. The large majority of the livestock are sheep and goats, both of which have risen sharply over the last 20 years (Fig. 3 ). The drop in national and regional livestock numbers in 2010 (Fig. 3 ) was due to severe winter conditions in 2009/10 resulting in mass mortality of over 20% of the national livestock population (Nandintsetseg et al., 2018 ; Rao et al., 2015 ; Fig. 3 ). Regionally, a total of 1,041,537 livestock were reported for 4,569 herder households (227 livestock per herder household). The percentage of goats was 12% higher than the national average. Regional livestock numbers followed a similar trend than national livestock numbers but were more severely affected by the 2009/2010 winter conditions which was particularly severe in this region. Locally, the self-reported livestock numbers of 125 interviewed households in 2017/2018 totalled 81,601 (mean: 653 ± 457 per household), with goats and sheep dominating in about the same proportion seen in the regional data (Fig. 3 ). When asked about livestock trends, most herders reported that they had increased their livestock herds over the last three years, and would like to further increase their herds, particularly their goat and sheep numbers (Fig. 3 ). In accordance with their wish to increase livestock numbers, the majority of our interviewed herders (65%) also wanted to increase their livestock products, especially cashmere production (23%). When asked how many animals they would need for a good living, herders answered they would need on average 774 (± 452) livestock heads. This number represented 16.4% more than they owned at the time of the interview. In addition, five herders, specialized on cattle raising, reported that they needed on average 180 (± 45) cattle for a “good living”. Local herder household economy We found that locally 54% of the households had no other income source than livestock and 44% received ≥ 75% of their income from livestock. Additional income sources for the latter group were mainly government funds for child support (45%, n = 55) and/or pension (49%, n = 55). Only three herder families reported to have a salaried job in addition to herding livestock. Locally, cashmere was the most important livestock product, with by far the highest price per kg as compared to other livestock products (Fig. 5 and Table 1 ). We found that local cashmere prices for herders in the Great Gobi B SPA were 3% higher in the year 2018 compared to the annual national average, but slightly lower to regional cashmere prices (Table 1 ). Herders of the Great Gobi B SPA sold their cashmere mainly to middlemen, who paid the regional market price of the two provinces Khovd and Govi-Altai. The national and regional cashmere prices were subject to large fluctuations in the last ten years, varying between 12 and 28 US $ /kg, but showing an overall increasing trend (Fig. 4 ). The dip of the cashmere price in 2020 was due to the global Covid-19 pandemic (Hafey, 2020 ). Over the last 10 years, the consumer price index has steadily increased at only a slightly lower rate than the cashmere price (Fig. 4 ). On average, herders in the Great Gobi B harvest 300 g of raw cashmere per goat and thus earned on average 2,513 US $ 1 per year in 2018 and 2019 (using the average goat herd size of 369 and the local reported cashmere price of 22.7 US $ ). According to local herders, income from sheep and cattle products were only of moderate importance for herders’ revenue gain (Fig. 5 ) as prices for these products were low (Table 1 ). Products from sheep and cows were mostly used for own consumption and therefore help reduce food related expenses. Herders stated that horses and camels were least important for herders’ revenue gain and were mainly kept as status symbol and out of tradition. Local herder households spent 30% on food. Non-food expenses were divided into 19% for travel/transportation, 17% on clothing, 8% on education, 8% on equipment, 6% on health care, 6% on livestock health, 3% on health insurance, 2% on their retirement savings, 2% on others and 1% on recreation (Online Resource 9). National and regional prices for sheep and camel wool were similar, whereas local prices were clearly lower. The prices for animal hides were locally distinctively higher than nationally and regionally, similar to live horses, cattle and camels (Table 1 ). Table 1 Local livestock product prices reported by 125 herder household interviews in the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia, in 2017/2018, the mean national average prices within Mongolia, and the regional prices in the two provinces Khovd and Govi-Altai in 2018. Data sources: own interview data (local prices) and Mongolian Statistical Information Service, 2023 . Livestock Products Livestock species Mean National Prices [US $ ] Regional Mean Prices [US $ ] Local Prices [US $ ] N (Number of herders reporting local prices) Cashmere / Wool [price / kg] Goat Sheep Camel 22.0 ± 6.3 0.9 ± 0.1 3.1 ± 0.8 23.4 ± 5.6 0.9 ± 0.1 3.1 ± 0.9 22.7 ± 4.9 0.6 ± 0.5 1.6 ± 0.9 117 107 40 Hide [price / animal hide] Goat Sheep Horse Cattle Camel 4.7 ± 3.9 0.6 ± 0.2 3.3 ± 0.6 4.1 ± 2.1 - 4.1 ± 4.5 0.7 ± 0.2 3.0 ± 0.9 3.6 ± 1.2 - 5.4 ± 1.7 0.8 ± 0.7 5.3 ± 1.9 5.8 ± 3.8 5.6 ± 6.2 114 88 19 39 4 Live animal prices [price / animal] Goat Sheep Horse Cattle Camel 17.6 ± 6.4 25.4 ± 8.4 155.8 ± 36.7 181.6 ± 48.9 192.7 ± 51.4 16.0 ± 6.3 24.0 ± 7.8 150.9 ± 34.1 165.4 ± 46.0 185.7 ± 69.9 17.0 ± 3.1 22.6 ± 5.2 156.1 ± 29.4 201.2 ± 50.9 237.5 ± 44.2 103 95 50 48 15 Daily and seasonal herder household labour divisions Local herders had clear daily and seasonal routines in respect to their household tasks (Online Resource 10). Herding of small livestock is important year-round and is primarily (in 83% of the cases) done by the men. Most herders (72%) only tended own livestock, while 25% also tended livestock of relatives. The most labour-intensive times were during spring and summer (Online Resource 10), when offspring is born, cashmere is combed, and sheep and camels are sheared. Most of the daily and seasonal herder routines were conducted by the immediate household members (Online Resource 11), i.e., husband and wife, their children and sometimes other relatives, living at the household or returning home during labour-intensive times. The future of the herder lifestyle Local herder households had on average 3 (± 1; range 1–7) household members living at the herder camp in the Great Gobi B SPA consisting mainly of a married couple with children in pre-school age, or in adult age helping the parents with the livestock herd. In total, herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA had 460 children (mean per household = 4 (± 2)). Of those, 51 children were in pre-school age (mean = 1(± 1)) living with the family, 143 in school age (mean = 2 (± 1)) living close to the schools in municipalities, and 28 children were enrolled at universities (mean = 2 (± 1)). Further, 61 adult children stayed with their parents at the camp (mean = 1 (± 1)) as additional help, 52 adult children owned their own livestock herds (mean = 2 (± 2)), and 125 (mean = 2 (± 2)) adult children had salaried jobs and were living in municipalities. During one focus group discussion with the young herders, they pointed out advantages and challenges of living a herding lifestyle (Online Resource 7). The freedom to move and the unlimited access to the vast rangelands was seen as an advantage. Access to media (TV, radio and internet) was considered a big improvement for life as a herder, as weather forecasts can help to decide when and where to move to graze livestock. Major challenges to life as a herder were mainly related to climate, namely extreme winters (“dzuds”) and drought summers, and limited infrastructure, namely poor access to public services (Online Resource 7 and 8). Daily and seasonal tasks were practiced by young herders in a similar way as by the older generation and were considered part of their traditional ecological knowledge (TEK; Online Resource 8). Herders’ involvement in protected area management While 47% of herders considered living close to the Great Gobi B SPA as a livelihood advantage, the majority (50%) also stated that they follow the regulations and recommendations of the PA management (Online Resource 3). Most herders (58%) claimed that they regularly participate in consultative meetings with the PA management while only 29% also felt their views were considered in decision-making. The majority (76%) also expressed that the local herder community and the PA management should collaborate on the conservation of nature and usage of natural resources. However, 82% of herders stated that the cooperation between the PA management and the local communities needs to be improved to ensure environmental protection and sustainable use of natural resources. The main challenges of herders living close to the Great Gobi B SPA were the limited pasture for small livestock (42%), limitations in pasture mobility and rotation (42%), misunderstandings with the PA management when migrating through the protected area (42%; Online Resource 4). About half of the herders (53%) pointed out that the information about meetings and workshops by the PA management is not distributed sufficiently, especially to herders staying very remotely. Several herders (42%) even said that there are no meetings organized to listening to the views of the local people, and that complaints and views of local people are not considered (45%; Online Resource 5). According to the herders (55%) there is a lack of information and understanding of the rights of the herder community regarding co-operation with the PA management and sustainable pasture use in the limited use zone of the SPA. 4 Discussion Livestock trends Our study revealed social and economic challenges of herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi. Our data showed that local livestock trends in numbers and species composition roughly followed countrywide and regional patterns. With an average 653 livestock heads per family, average herd size in the Great Gobi B SPA seems at the higher end compared to other regions in Mongolia (Gombodorj, 2021 ). Household economy The sharp increase of livestock numbers in Mongolia in the last 20 years, especially of goats, is associated with the increased international demand for cashmere wool and the privatization of the market (Munkhzul et al., 2021 ; Rysbyek & Lei, 2022 ; Wei & Zhen, 2020 ). Our interviews revealed that herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA were fully dependent on livestock production as main income source, with cashmere as most important livestock product for revenue gain, similar to other regions in Mongolia (Gombodorj, 2021 ; Joly et al., 2019 ; Meurs et al., 2017 ). Other income possibilities were limited due to the harsh climate and the long distance to urban centres (IPECON / NZNI, 2003 ). Despite local cashmere prices being slightly lower than the regional mean, local herders on average earned double the amount of the country’s minimum wage (Countryeconomy, 2018 ) from cashmere wool alone. In addition, the national cashmere price increased by 119% over the last 10 years compensating the 97% consumer price increase. However, local herders still only earned 28% below the yearly average wage in Mongolia (Mongolian Statistical Information Service, 2023 ). Income from other livestock products was minimal and although meat and milk were used for own consumption, expenditure for food was the single most important household expense, followed by expenses for travel and transport, and clothing; together amounting for over 60% of the household expenses. Herder households therefore have a very narrow economic safety margin and the high dependence on cashmere as main income source, results in high household vulnerability (Murphy, 2018 ) due to volatile prices (Marin, 2019 ). Further, unpredictable weather conditions with an increased risk of extreme winter events have resulted in high livestock losses (Bayasgalan et al., 2006 ). The combined uncertainties are likely the motivation for herders to keep more livestock during favourable conditions instead of selling it (Xu et al., 2019 ) and might explain why we found that herder households wanted to further increase their livestock numbers to reach a “good livelihood”. Herders pay for social insurances and debts when they seasonally sell their livestock products (Bristley, 2021 ), if prices are low and livestock losses too high, their narrow economic margin will not allow them to recover and may ultimately force them to give up their herding lifestyle as happened in the winter 2009/10. Herding tradition We found that livelihood practices of herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi were still based on traditions and social networks, which are centred around the extended family as has been shown for other areas in Mongolia (Fernández-Giménez, 1999 ; Fernández-Giménez et al., 2017 ). During seasonal labour-intensive times herder households are dependent on external support (Schlecht et al., 2020 ), which agrees with our findings that herds of more than 1,000 small livestock are difficult to manage by a single herder household, according to our interviews. Larger numbers of small livestock require herders to divide animals into multiple herds, thus requiring additional herders, a trend already reported from other regions of Mongolia (Mijiddorj et al., 2019 ; Murphy, 2015 ). This results in absentee and contract herding arrangements, which are becoming more common in Mongolia (Fernández-Giménez, 1999 ; Mijiddorj et al., 2019 ; Murphy, 2015 ). In Eastern and South Africa, such arrangements are often considered exploitative, with negative effects on livestock well-being and pasture health (Michler et al., 2019 ; Moritz et al., 2011 ). While we found that currently the own children are still valuable assistants in labour-intensive times for herders in the Dzungarian Gobi, maintaining the connection to their homeland (Sukhbaatar & Tarkó, 2018 ), we also saw a trend of the young generation leaving the herding lifestyle behind. Future of traditional herding We found that while the number of livestock per herding household is increasing, the number of herding households is decreasing nationally and regionally. Even locally, most adult children of herder households were employed in salaried jobs and did not live as herders anymore, showing the countrywide trend of rural-urban migration and rapid urbanisation in Mongolia over the last three decades (Dyer et al., 2022 ). Worldwide, herding as an occupation is becoming less attractive to the youth (Schlecht et al., 2020 ) and young Mongolians move to urban areas to seek labour or higher education (Fernández-Giménez et al., 2017 ; Park et al., 2017 ). There also seems to be a growing gender gap in education (Ahearn, 2018 ; Steiner-Khamsi & Gerelmaa, 2008 ), with our interviews revealing that the education of female youths was prioritized over that of male youths, the latter being more often expected to continue to herd livestock. This makes it difficult for young man to find a partner and continue a traditional family centred herding lifestyle. The long distances to urban centres also results in some herder households to split up during winter, with women and school children staying in settled centres while men stay in the field to herd the livestock (Ahearn, 2018 ). In our interviews, this practice was only reported by a few families and it was not yet a general trend. Still, in our focus group discussion the participants highlighted the limited access to social services like education and health as a major challenge, which is in line with the situation nomadic herders face in Africa (Dika et al., 2021 ; Gammino et al., 2020 ), South America (Caine, 2021 ) and other parts of Asia (Dyer & Rajan, 2023 ). Herding in a Protected Area Our study showed that herders faced challenges with the PA management considering pasture use, although they perceived living close to the Great Gobi B SPA as a livelihood advantage. In Africa, making use of pastures inside PAs is considered as important traditional pastoral coping strategy for environmental uncertainty (Butt, 2011 ) due to better pasture availability (Michler et al., 2019 ). In Mongolia, protected areas are often used as emergency pastures in times of limited resource availability during climate extremes (Bedunah & Schmidt, 2004 ; Hess et al., 2010 ). However, this also puts added pressure on threatened, rare wildlife populations, some of which are only found in PAs (Turghan et al., 2022 ) and might result in competition between herders with access permits to the PA and those without (Michler et al., 2019 ). This highlights the importance of good communication practices between PA management and the local pastoral community, which was perceived insufficient by the local herders in our study. We, therefore, state that any conflicting objectives herders and conservation managers have must be resolved to come to a mutually accepted understanding of rights and responsibilities (Molnár et al., 2016 ). 5 Conclusion We conclude that herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA are reaching livestock herd sizes, which are no longer manageable in the traditional way and which threaten pasture health (Sainnemekh et al., 2022 ) and compete with wildlife populations (Berger et al., 2013 ). On the other hand, herder household numbers are declining, and it may be possible to reach an economically and ecologically sustainable density of livestock by either diversifying the economic basis of herder families or by changing the traditional family-centred herding tradition (Mijiddorj et al., 2019 ). In Mongolia, several international and national organisations focus on herder groups jointly managing pasture resources while also improving cashmere value-chains through fostering market access and increased livestock product prices (Addison et al., 2013 ; Okamoto & Jamsranjav, 2019 ). Some of those initiatives focus on a wildlife-friendly cashmere value chain (Okamoto & Jamsranjav, 2019 ), which could also be a strategy for herder households using the pastures of the Great Gobi B SPA. According to Abukari & Mwalyosi ( 2020 ) local communities in Ghana and Tanzania perceive the impact of PAs on their livelihoods positively when PA governance is inclusive and considers local peoples’ economic needs. To secure and diversify herder household incomes in line with conservation aims, wildlife tourism has widely been practiced in PAs (Goodwin & Roe, 2001 ). However, care needs to be taken, that more than just minor contributions find their way to local communities (DeGeorges & Reilly, 2009 ; Nepal, 1997 ). We conclude that in and around the Great Gobi B SPA, livestock numbers need to be reduced before pasture overexploitation jeopardizes biodiversity conservation and herder livelihoods. This can only be successful when local communities are involved in management decisions and profit directly or indirectly from the protected area. While a well-managed protected area can offer healthy pastures, job opportunities, and additional income from eco-tourism for some, the protected area cannot solve the current dilemma of increasing livestock numbers to meet livelihood demands in the Dzungarian Gobi. National strategies are needed to enable local herding communities to maintaining mobility, gain access to markets and social services, and diversify their economic basis to enhance their resilience to environmental and economic fluctuations. Declarations Author Contribution Data collection were performed by L.M.M. and D.B.. Material preparation and analysis were performed by all authors. The first draft of the manuscript was written by L. M.M. and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. Acknowledgement We thank the Great Gobi B strictly protected area management and the rangers who supported the data collection. 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Soil and Tillage Research , 219 , 105327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2022.105327 Footnotes Exchange rate on 15.06.2023: 1 $ US = 3,438 MNT ( www.mongolbank.mn ) Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterialWhatwillthefuturebring.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Human Ecology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 08 Aug, 2024 Reviews received at journal 08 Aug, 2024 Reviews received at journal 04 Aug, 2024 Reviews received at journal 04 Aug, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Jul, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Jul, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 16 Jul, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 16 Jul, 2024 First submitted to journal 15 Jul, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4743895","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":335818069,"identity":"46c6135a-d923-4c16-92ed-48f90d5ef8b5","order_by":0,"name":"Lena M. Michler","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIie3PrQ7CMBDA8athpgFbxyuMkDSIZTwIZksTMBtPgBgGDHgcT4CdQtyyBDU2u2QGDAoBDoGgsPBhNsCR0L+6NPfLpQAq1Q9WvQ8VoAQBDDmSIZaRygsBudm9Eu8zAjkJb2M50abBgTjQqWprxOMyMRfjUF4ZGJ1CQmPBiA/uiPatYLbLhB/Zkqy6rldEmKPnhFE9pJgJjpIQLywm9X3z9CBnjAVPtm8Io/x5BRBNnr67Qh3esn0m/+LowQSFxVN5xSr5S02LmunRN9z5OGpsTmi2edLbbg4Do5DcsoA9ZtvLX76o/c2ySqVS/UcXW+9fH/0XOAcAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Hohenheim","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lena","middleName":"M.","lastName":"Michler","suffix":""},{"id":335818071,"identity":"3c86ca60-3922-4402-a0c4-5c277c9e0cf3","order_by":1,"name":"Petra Kaczensky","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Petra","middleName":"","lastName":"Kaczensky","suffix":""},{"id":335818072,"identity":"1449c6d7-0dba-4090-8844-fb1f2d5cd206","order_by":2,"name":"Daginnas Batsukh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Mongolian University of Life Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daginnas","middleName":"","lastName":"Batsukh","suffix":""},{"id":335818073,"identity":"6713076d-7238-46e4-b221-88b17e4fed53","order_by":3,"name":"Anna C. Treydte","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Stockholm University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anna","middleName":"C.","lastName":"Treydte","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-15 15:24:33","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743895/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743895/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-024-00551-z","type":"published","date":"2024-12-05T15:57:54+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":62013197,"identity":"9ecc2f1a-d3df-4211-be3e-4c5aa36740af","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 08:17:52","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":262746,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eLocation of the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area covering five districts in two provinces (Khovd = light grey; Govi-Altai = light brown) in Mongolia. The different protection zones of the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area are shown in red = core zone, sand = protected zone, and orange= limited use zone. The locations of interviewed herder households are shown in purple\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743895/v1/ece6334251157a07847bb6c4.png"},{"id":62014140,"identity":"c3230a2d-901e-43f5-83e1-2093903859d0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 08:25:51","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":175217,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSchematic graph of data collection from the years 2002 to 2022 in Mongolia (national), in the Dzungarian Gobi (regional), and in 2017/2018 in the Great Gobi B strictly protected area (local), Mongolia. The figure illustrates how we investigated livestock and herder household trends, herder household economy and future outlooks of the herder lifestyle using various data sources\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743895/v1/42d4010ce1fe1f128eb5005d.jpg"},{"id":62013192,"identity":"fda5b6a0-e7d3-4e42-84cd-e8254b8bd894","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 08:17:51","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":94551,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eLivestock numbers and livestock species distribution in (a) Mongolia (national), (b) within the five districts surrounding Great Gobi B strictly protected area (regional) and (c) mean livestock numbers per herder household within the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia (local). Data for (a) and (b) is shown within the last 20 years (Mongolian Statistical Information, 2023) and (c) based on 125 herder household interviews conducted in the years 2017 and 2018. Colours represent different livestock species and the black line (a and b) shows the total livestock population trends. The pie charts show the respective livestock species distribution. Graph (d) shows trends of herd size numbers over the last 3 years and preferred livestock trend for future years based on interviews with herder households (N=125)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743895/v1/2fa5b7ed8d5e7d2e1c9f4506.jpg"},{"id":62015088,"identity":"d75b019a-ff56-4890-a089-fc8099535541","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 08:33:51","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":60200,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTrends of cashmere (Mongolian national mean orange), and consumer price index in percentage from 2012 until 2022; (Mongolian national mean in blue) 2015=100%. Trend lines are given in dotted lines. Data source: Mongolian Statistical Information Service, 2023\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743895/v1/2232e46d0d1979983c57d083.jpg"},{"id":62013190,"identity":"a7e8dbce-fdc3-4f2a-a92a-a24c4d0b78d9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 08:17:51","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":110929,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e(a) Livestock and livestock products sold by herders in percentage (N=125) in and around the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia. Self-reported importance of different livestock species for herder household revenue. Dark shades represent high, medium shades moderate and light shades low revenue gain\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743895/v1/0c575d2b602cc62562289cbc.jpg"},{"id":70964799,"identity":"4c9ede7d-cc00-4e9d-bd3b-fa98ab0ff0c9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-09 16:15:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1461056,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743895/v1/00e0de1b-1db2-4856-9cf7-815334e3860a.pdf"},{"id":62014142,"identity":"a5157858-2f20-42f6-a25f-2841190d5adb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 08:25:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":517732,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterialWhatwillthefuturebring.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743895/v1/e542cdae566000309c66be2b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"What will the future bring? – Socio-economic challenges to herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi, Mongolia","fulltext":[{"header":"1 Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eNomadic pastoralism worldwide\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtensive livestock husbandry on rangelands is important for the livelihoods and food security of millions of people (Lund, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e), with nomadic pastoralism practiced by around 20\u0026nbsp;million herder households worldwide (FAO, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2001\u003c/span\u003e). Nomadic pastoralism has been practiced over millennia, especially in arid regions unsuitable for other agricultural production (Godde et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). However, changes in socio-economic conditions result in shifts from nomadic to sessile forms of livestock grazing and increased rural-urban migration, trends which can be observed in many rangeland systems globally (Dyer et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Wafula et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR83\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). In addition, climatic extremes are challenging this traditional lifestyle particularly in the most arid rangelands (Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). While rangelands are studied widely (Addison et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e; Godde et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), herders livelihood trends are poorly understood resulting in inadequate policy decisions (Johnsen et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). We looked at the socio-economic position of herder households in a remote and arid region where nomadic pastoralism is the main livelihood strategy.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSocio-economic changes of pastoral livelihoods\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Mongolia, one-third of the population practice pastoral livelihoods (Mongolian Statistical Information Service, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e) but the livestock sector in Mongolia has been under change multiple times in the last century. Over more than 60 years, all herder households were part of livestock collectives and herded state-owned animals for a salary (Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1999\u003c/span\u003e). With the end of the soviet-collective era many people returned to herding at the family level (Dyer et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e; Meurs et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). Privatization and the development of an export market for cashmere wool has led to a shift from a subsistence to a market economy (Meurs et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e), where herders have increased their livestock, especially the number of cashmere goats (Berger et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e; Wei \u0026amp; Zhen, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR84\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Fluctuating cashmere prices and the unpredictable and harsh climate are challenging for the economy of herder households (Sternberg, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR75\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e) and have increased livelihood vulnerability (Marin, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), while the rising livestock numbers put increasing pressure on the fragile rangelands threatening pasture health and the long-term viability of the pastoral economy (Addison \u0026amp; Brown, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLiving in a modern market economy is expensive as public services are no longer free and many herder households in remote, rural areas have limited access to healthcare (WHO, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR85\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e) and education (Ahearn \u0026amp; Bumochir, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e; Steiner-Khamsi \u0026amp; Gerelmaa, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR74\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e); around 30% of the rural Mongolian population live below the poverty line (World Bank, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR86\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). To understand the rural situation regarding livestock numbers and herder household economics we investigated to what extent herder households in a remote and arid region of south-western Mongolia, the Dzungarian Gobi, depend on livestock and livestock products in comparison with national and regional trends.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlong with the shift from subsistence to a market economy, labour previously shared within the extended family is increasingly outsourced to contracted herders (Murphy, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). However, especially in remote areas the importance of kinship relations and social networks for herder household livelihoods remains high even today (Conte, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e; Ichinkhorloo, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR37\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). To better understand the importance of social relations and shared labour in the Dzungarian Gobi, we identified daily and seasonal routines and how tasks were shared within the herder households.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe increased rural-urban migration of especially younger Mongolians to seek labour or higher education (Park et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR66\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e), has resulted in declining herder household numbers, a trend that could potentially reduce overall grazing pressure, but may also alter the livestock grazing sector from a nomadic family centred to a large-scale ranching style grazing system (Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). Socio-economic constrains already force many herder households to abandon the nomadic family centred lifestyle during winter, when women live with school children in district or provincial centres where the schools are located, and men stay in the countryside to herd the livestock (Ahearn, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). These social changes result in increased livelihood costs, which in turn result in rising livestock numbers, absentee herders, and increasing social inequality (Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). We interviewed herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi to understand current ongoing social changes.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003ePastoralism practiced within protected areas\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLivestock numbers are on the rise globally (FAO, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), and land-use conflicts in or close to protected areas are increasing (DeFries et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e). In Mongolia, livestock grazing is also practiced within most protected areas, posing challenges for biodiversity conservation, wildlife management (Kaczensky et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Salvatori et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR71\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e) and rangeland health (Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). The currently high livestock numbers (Mongolian Statistical Information Service, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e) are not only threatening pasture productivity and biodiversity, but also, the nomadic herding culture depending on these very rangelands (Sainnemekh et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR70\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) and make herding communities more vulnerable to climate extremes (Sternberg, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR75\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e). Protected areas are increasingly perceived and used as emergency pastures during droughts and harsh winter conditions (Bedunah \u0026amp; Schmidt, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2004\u003c/span\u003e; Hess et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e), putting additional pressures on sensitive ecosystems during times when resources are already scarce and creating social conflicts (Bedunah \u0026amp; Angerer, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e; Bedunah \u0026amp; Schmidt, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2004\u003c/span\u003e). However, both local herding communities and protected areas aim for healthy and diverse pastures and local communities can be powerful allies for the protection of pasturelands (Bedunah \u0026amp; Angerer, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e; Hess et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). Involvement of local communities in biodiversity monitoring and protected area decision making can mitigate conflict by focussing on common goals and finding a common knowledge base (Xu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR87\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e). Nevertheless, the involvement of natural resource users in protected area (PA) management can be challenging for both sides (Namsrai et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR59\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) and we asked local herders about how they perceive using pastures in Great Gobi B SPA and to what extent they are informed about or involved in the PA management decisions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003ePastoral livelihoods in the Dzungarian Gobi\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn the Dzungarian Gobi, around 280 families have seasonal access to the Great Gobi B SPA (Altansukh Nanjid, director of the Great Gobi B SPA, personal comm. 2023), which is also an important refuge for several rare and endangered wildlife and plants species, several of which are endemic (Sundev et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR77\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). The herder households are allowed to use the pastures in the limited use zone in winter, based on contracts with the protected area (Altansukh Nanjid, director of the Great Gobi B SPA, pers. comm. 2023). So far, there is little evidence for pasture degradation, which is likely due to the combined effect of the non-equilibrium nature of the pastures (von Wehrden et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR81\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e) and the high mobility of the nomadic herders (Michler et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). However, with rising livestock numbers in combination with fodder provision, there is concern over pasture degradation, as high grazing intensity is known to lower plant species diversity, biomass and vegetation cover (Menezes et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Munkhzul et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR56\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), alter soil parameters (Abdalla et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e; Zhang et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR89\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), and lead to soil erosion (Dong et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn addition, rising livestock numbers could potentially increase competition with wild ungulates for resources (Niamir-Fuller et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR62\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e), reduce wildlife numbers (Prins, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR67\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e), raise the risk for disease transmission between wild and domestic ungulates (Dayaram et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), and lead to displacement of wildlife by herders, their livestock and their guarding dogs (Kaczensky et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e). On the other hand, herders are also allies in the protection of pasture lands from other uses such as mining and have strongly supported the extension of Great Gobi B SPA to twice its original size in 2019 (Sansarbayar, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR72\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Local herders are therefore important partners for the Great Gobi B SPA, but sustainable use and biodiversity conservation require that livestock numbers and distribution are controlled. Understanding the socio-economic constraints and needs of local herders is an important first step for developing recommendations for natural resource use by herders and their livestock in the protected area.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this study, we use semi-structured interviews to describe the socio-economic situation of the herders who use the Great Gobi B SPA on their annual migration routes. Within the context of the regional and country-wide socio-economic trends over the last 20 years, we ask the following questions:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003e How many domestic animals and which animal species do local herder households in the Great Gobi B herd and what herd sizes do herders need to maintain their livelihoods?\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhat is the current economic situation of herder households in comparison to regional and country-wide trends?\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eHow are different labour tasks divided within herder households and how important are social networks under the ongoing socio-economic changes?\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhat is the perception of herders on using pasture resources in Great Gobi B SPA and their involvement in Great Gobi B SPA\u0026rsquo;s management decisions?\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on the above questions, we discuss recommendations for pastoral livelihoods in the Great Gobi B SPA under reduced livestock numbers to sustainably manage the pasture resources for wildlife and pastoral livelihoods in the future.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2 Material and Methods","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eStudy site\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Great Gobi B SPA was established in the year 1975 as strictly protected area and was registered in 1991 as UNESCO Man and Biosphere reserve (UNESCO, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR80\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Since the expansion to double its size in 2019, the protected area spans over 18\u0026rsquo;000 km\u0026sup2; across two provinces (Khovd and Govi-Altai) and five districts (called \u0026ldquo;Soum\u0026rdquo; in Mongolian; Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e; Sansarbayar, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR72\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Around 280 herders and their livestock, namely (in decreasing order of importance) goats (\u003cem\u003eCapra aegagrus hircus\u003c/em\u003e) and sheep (\u003cem\u003eOvis aries\u003c/em\u003e), cattle (\u003cem\u003eBos taurus turano mongolicus\u003c/em\u003e), horses (\u003cem\u003eEquus ferus caballus\u003c/em\u003e), camels (\u003cem\u003eCamelus bactrianus\u003c/em\u003e), and yaks (\u003cem\u003eBos grunniens\u003c/em\u003e) have seasonal access to the limited use zone of the protected area (Michler et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), while the core and protected zones are exclusively reserved for wildlife. Rare and endangered focal wildlife species of Great Gobi B SPA include the Przewalski horse (\u003cem\u003eEquus ferus przewalskii\u003c/em\u003e), Asiatic wild ass (\u003cem\u003eEquus hemionus)\u003c/em\u003e, goitered gazelle (\u003cem\u003eGazella subgutturosa\u003c/em\u003e), Argali sheep (\u003cem\u003eOvis ammon\u003c/em\u003e), Siberian ibex (\u003cem\u003eCapra sibirica\u003c/em\u003e), and the snow leopard (\u003cem\u003ePanthera uncia\u003c/em\u003e; Clark et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e; Kaczensky et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e). In this semi-desert and desert steppe, people, livestock and wildlife cope with a harsh, continental climate characterized by extreme temperature differences of up to 80\u0026deg;C between summer and winter, and highly variable precipitation (Von Wehrden et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR82\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eHerder household interviews\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe conducted semi-structured interviews (Kallio et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR44\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e) with 125 different herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA in autumn 2017 and 2018 (Online Resource 1 and 2), which represented 96% of all herder households, who used seasonal camp locations within the protected area at that time (note: the study started before the extension of GGB SPA in 2019 to the extension shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). The herder households were found with the help of the Great Gobi B SPA rangers. The interview questions were structured into household information, livestock situation and economic conditions to understand local pastoral livelihoods. Before the interviews, we informed the participants about the aim of the study and obtained informed consent through the signature of the interviewee (Nijhawan et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR63\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). Interviews were conducted in Mongolian and translated into English. In most cases the household heads (married couples) were interviewed together. The average age of our local household heads was 46 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;12) years for men (N\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;120) and 44 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;12) for women (N\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;121). The herder households had on average 4 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;2) children with an average age of 17 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;10) years.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSurvey on herders\u0026rsquo; involvement in protect area management\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDuring three focus group discussions in November 2019, described in more detail in Michler et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), we asked 36 participants (11 women and 25 men) to fill in a survey about questions related to the information exchange between the pastoral community and the PA management. Questions covered the state of collaboration between the protected area administration and the local herder households, conflicts between the stakeholders, and challenges regarding co-operation for conservation, and participating in certain management decisions concerning sustainable pasture use in the protected area and were based on Batsukh \u0026amp; Benediktsson (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; Online Resource 3\u0026ndash;5).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eFocus group discussion\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo learn more about future perspectives of herding, we conducted one focus group discussion with three female and six male \u0026ldquo;young herders\u0026rdquo; (defined as being below 35 years of age), who were on average 27 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;5) years old, in autumn 2019. The focus group discussion was led by a moderator and an assistant (Krueger, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e) with the aim to understand the challenges and visions of young herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA. During the focus group discussion, we took notes simultaneously in Mongolian and English. We asked each participant to answer six general questions as background information (Online Resource 6) and divided the participants into three groups (two men and one woman each). Then we asked the groups to discuss and answer seven questions jointly under different perspectives: (1) livestock husbandry, (2) pasture use, and (3) social and household aspects (Online Resource 7 and 8). The focus group was very small and became available opportunistically and hence we only present this data in the Online Resource and discussion.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSecondary data on national herder household and livestock data\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe used data from the Mongolian National Statistics Office (2023) to obtain national and regional trends in livestock numbers, livestock species distribution, monetary expenditures and income, as well as overall population, education and herder household numbers (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e). To illustrate trends in household living costs, we used the Consumer Price Index of Mongolia (Mongolian Statistical Information Service, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e), a measurement to show changes in consumer prices over time based on a representative basket of goods and services (Fernando, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). We compared the Consumer Price Index with data on national and regional prices for \u0026ldquo;brown greasy cashmere\u0026rdquo; (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor national trends, we used averages over all of Mongolian and for regional trends, we selected data from the two Mongolian provinces Khovd and Govi-Altai, or of the five districts, which intersect Great Gobi B (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). As local data, we defined the information of our own interviews (N\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;125) in the Great Gobi B SPA in 2018.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eData analysis\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eData from structured and semi-structured questionnaires was analysed descriptively reporting percentages, means and standard deviations. Answers to the open-ended question in the focus group discussion were reported by main categories that emerged according to Okoko et al. (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR65\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"3 Results","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eHerd sizes needed for maintaining pastoral livelihoods\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Mongolia, a total of 71,120,433 livestock (goats, sheep, horses, cattle, yaks, and camels) were reported for 248,296 herder households (286 livestock per herder household) for the year 2022. The large majority of the livestock are sheep and goats, both of which have risen sharply over the last 20 years (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). The drop in national and regional livestock numbers in 2010 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e) was due to severe winter conditions in 2009/10 resulting in mass mortality of over 20% of the national livestock population (Nandintsetseg et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR60\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e; Rao et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR68\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e; Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegionally, a total of 1,041,537 livestock were reported for 4,569 herder households (227 livestock per herder household). The percentage of goats was 12% higher than the national average. Regional livestock numbers followed a similar trend than national livestock numbers but were more severely affected by the 2009/2010 winter conditions which was particularly severe in this region.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLocally, the self-reported livestock numbers of 125 interviewed households in 2017/2018 totalled 81,601 (mean: 653\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;457 per household), with goats and sheep dominating in about the same proportion seen in the regional data (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). When asked about livestock trends, most herders reported that they had increased their livestock herds over the last three years, and would like to further increase their herds, particularly their goat and sheep numbers (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn accordance with their wish to increase livestock numbers, the majority of our interviewed herders (65%) also wanted to increase their livestock products, especially cashmere production (23%). When asked how many animals they would need for a good living, herders answered they would need on average 774 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;452) livestock heads. This number represented 16.4% more than they owned at the time of the interview. In addition, five herders, specialized on cattle raising, reported that they needed on average 180 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;45) cattle for a \u0026ldquo;good living\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eLocal herder household economy\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe found that locally 54% of the households had no other income source than livestock and 44% received\u0026thinsp;\u0026ge;\u0026thinsp;75% of their income from livestock. Additional income sources for the latter group were mainly government funds for child support (45%, n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;55) and/or pension (49%, n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;55). Only three herder families reported to have a salaried job in addition to herding livestock.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLocally, cashmere was the most important livestock product, with by far the highest price per kg as compared to other livestock products (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e and Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). We found that local cashmere prices for herders in the Great Gobi B SPA were 3% higher in the year 2018 compared to the annual national average, but slightly lower to regional cashmere prices (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Herders of the Great Gobi B SPA sold their cashmere mainly to middlemen, who paid the regional market price of the two provinces Khovd and Govi-Altai.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe national and regional cashmere prices were subject to large fluctuations in the last ten years, varying between 12 and 28 US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e/kg, but showing an overall increasing trend (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). The dip of the cashmere price in 2020 was due to the global Covid-19 pandemic (Hafey, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Over the last 10 years, the consumer price index has steadily increased at only a slightly lower rate than the cashmere price (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). On average, herders in the Great Gobi B harvest 300 g of raw cashmere per goat and thus earned on average 2,513 US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e\u003csup\u003e1\u003c/sup\u003e per year in 2018 and 2019 (using the average goat herd size of 369 and the local reported cashmere price of 22.7 US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to local herders, income from sheep and cattle products were only of moderate importance for herders\u0026rsquo; revenue gain (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e) as prices for these products were low (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Products from sheep and cows were mostly used for own consumption and therefore help reduce food related expenses. Herders stated that horses and camels were least important for herders\u0026rsquo; revenue gain and were mainly kept as status symbol and out of tradition. Local herder households spent 30% on food. Non-food expenses were divided into 19% for travel/transportation, 17% on clothing, 8% on education, 8% on equipment, 6% on health care, 6% on livestock health, 3% on health insurance, 2% on their retirement savings, 2% on others and 1% on recreation (Online Resource 9).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNational and regional prices for sheep and camel wool were similar, whereas local prices were clearly lower. The prices for animal hides were locally distinctively higher than nationally and regionally, similar to live horses, cattle and camels (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003ctable id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e\n \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e\n \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLocal livestock product prices reported by 125 herder household interviews in the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area, Mongolia, in 2017/2018, the mean national average prices within Mongolia, and the regional prices in the two provinces Khovd and Govi-Altai in 2018. Data sources: own interview data (local prices) and Mongolian Statistical Information Service, \u003cspan class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/div\u003e\n \u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003cthead\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLivestock Products\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLivestock species\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\" style=\"width: 17.9711%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMean National Prices [US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\" style=\"width: 19.2753%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRegional Mean Prices [US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\" style=\"width: 21.7754%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLocal Prices\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e[US\u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth align=\"left\" style=\"width: 12.808%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eN (Number of herders reporting local prices)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/thead\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCashmere / Wool\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e[price / kg]\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGoat\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSheep\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCamel\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 17.9711%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e22.0\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;6.3\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.9\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.1\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 19.2753%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e23.4\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;5.6\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.9\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.1\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 21.7754%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e22.7\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;4.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.6\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.6\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\" style=\"width: 12.808%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e117\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e107\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e40\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHide\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e[price / animal hide]\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGoat\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSheep\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eHorse\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCattle\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCamel\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 17.9711%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.7\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;3.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.6\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.3\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.6\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.1\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;2.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 19.2753%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4.1\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;4.5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.7\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.0 \u0026plusmn; 0.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e3.6 \u0026plusmn; 1.2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e-\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 21.7754%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.4\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;1.7\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.8\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;0.7\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.3\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;1.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.8\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;3.8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.6\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;6.2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\" style=\"width: 12.808%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e114\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e88\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e19\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e39\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eLive animal prices\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e[price / animal]\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eGoat\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eSheep\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eHorse\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCattle\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCamel\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 17.9711%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e17.6\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;6.4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e25.4\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;8.4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e155.8\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;36.7\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e181.6\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;48.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e192.7\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;51.4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 19.2753%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e16.0\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;6.3\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e24.0\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;7.8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e150.9\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;34.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e165.4\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;46.0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e185.7\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;69.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"left\" style=\"width: 21.7754%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e17.0\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;3.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e22.6\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;5.2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e156.1\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;29.4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e201.2\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;50.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e237.5 \u0026plusmn; 44.2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd align=\"char\" style=\"width: 12.808%;\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e103\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e95\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e50\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e48\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e15\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eDaily and seasonal herder household labour divisions\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLocal herders had clear daily and seasonal routines in respect to their household tasks (Online Resource 10). Herding of small livestock is important year-round and is primarily (in 83% of the cases) done by the men. Most herders (72%) only tended own livestock, while 25% also tended livestock of relatives. The most labour-intensive times were during spring and summer (Online Resource 10), when offspring is born, cashmere is combed, and sheep and camels are sheared.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMost of the daily and seasonal herder routines were conducted by the immediate household members (Online Resource 11), i.e., husband and wife, their children and sometimes other relatives, living at the household or returning home during labour-intensive times.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eThe future of the herder lifestyle\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLocal herder households had on average 3 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;1; range 1\u0026ndash;7) household members living at the herder camp in the Great Gobi B SPA consisting mainly of a married couple with children in pre-school age, or in adult age helping the parents with the livestock herd. In total, herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA had 460 children (mean per household\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;4 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;2)). Of those, 51 children were in pre-school age (mean\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;1(\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;1)) living with the family, 143 in school age (mean\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;1)) living close to the schools in municipalities, and 28 children were enrolled at universities (mean\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;1)). Further, 61 adult children stayed with their parents at the camp (mean\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;1 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;1)) as additional help, 52 adult children owned their own livestock herds (mean\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;2)), and 125 (mean\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2 (\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;2)) adult children had salaried jobs and were living in municipalities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDuring one focus group discussion with the young herders, they pointed out advantages and challenges of living a herding lifestyle (Online Resource 7). The freedom to move and the unlimited access to the vast rangelands was seen as an advantage. Access to media (TV, radio and internet) was considered a big improvement for life as a herder, as weather forecasts can help to decide when and where to move to graze livestock. Major challenges to life as a herder were mainly related to climate, namely extreme winters (\u0026ldquo;dzuds\u0026rdquo;) and drought summers, and limited infrastructure, namely poor access to public services (Online Resource 7 and 8). Daily and seasonal tasks were practiced by young herders in a similar way as by the older generation and were considered part of their traditional ecological knowledge (TEK; Online Resource 8).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eHerders\u0026rsquo; involvement in protected area management\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhile 47% of herders considered living close to the Great Gobi B SPA as a livelihood advantage, the majority (50%) also stated that they follow the regulations and recommendations of the PA management (Online Resource 3). Most herders (58%) claimed that they regularly participate in consultative meetings with the PA management while only 29% also felt their views were considered in decision-making. The majority (76%) also expressed that the local herder community and the PA management should collaborate on the conservation of nature and usage of natural resources. However, 82% of herders stated that the cooperation between the PA management and the local communities needs to be improved to ensure environmental protection and sustainable use of natural resources.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe main challenges of herders living close to the Great Gobi B SPA were the limited pasture for small livestock (42%), limitations in pasture mobility and rotation (42%), misunderstandings with the PA management when migrating through the protected area (42%; Online Resource 4). About half of the herders (53%) pointed out that the information about meetings and workshops by the PA management is not distributed sufficiently, especially to herders staying very remotely. Several herders (42%) even said that there are no meetings organized to listening to the views of the local people, and that complaints and views of local people are not considered (45%; Online Resource 5). According to the herders (55%) there is a lack of information and understanding of the rights of the herder community regarding co-operation with the PA management and sustainable pasture use in the limited use zone of the SPA.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"4 Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eLivestock trends\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOur study revealed social and economic challenges of herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi. Our data showed that local livestock trends in numbers and species composition roughly followed countrywide and regional patterns. With an average 653 livestock heads per family, average herd size in the Great Gobi B SPA seems at the higher end compared to other regions in Mongolia (Gombodorj, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eHousehold economy\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe sharp increase of livestock numbers in Mongolia in the last 20 years, especially of goats, is associated with the increased international demand for cashmere wool and the privatization of the market (Munkhzul et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR56\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Rysbyek \u0026amp; Lei, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR69\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Wei \u0026amp; Zhen, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR84\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Our interviews revealed that herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA were fully dependent on livestock production as main income source, with cashmere as most important livestock product for revenue gain, similar to other regions in Mongolia (Gombodorj, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Joly et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; Meurs et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). Other income possibilities were limited due to the harsh climate and the long distance to urban centres (IPECON / NZNI, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2003\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDespite local cashmere prices being slightly lower than the regional mean, local herders on average earned double the amount of the country\u0026rsquo;s minimum wage (Countryeconomy, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e) from cashmere wool alone. In addition, the national cashmere price increased by 119% over the last 10 years compensating the 97% consumer price increase. However, local herders still only earned 28% below the yearly average wage in Mongolia (Mongolian Statistical Information Service, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Income from other livestock products was minimal and although meat and milk were used for own consumption, expenditure for food was the single most important household expense, followed by expenses for travel and transport, and clothing; together amounting for over 60% of the household expenses. Herder households therefore have a very narrow economic safety margin and the high dependence on cashmere as main income source, results in high household vulnerability (Murphy, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e) due to volatile prices (Marin, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Further, unpredictable weather conditions with an increased risk of extreme winter events have resulted in high livestock losses (Bayasgalan et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e). The combined uncertainties are likely the motivation for herders to keep more livestock during favourable conditions instead of selling it (Xu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR88\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) and might explain why we found that herder households wanted to further increase their livestock numbers to reach a \u0026ldquo;good livelihood\u0026rdquo;. Herders pay for social insurances and debts when they seasonally sell their livestock products (Bristley, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), if prices are low and livestock losses too high, their narrow economic margin will not allow them to recover and may ultimately force them to give up their herding lifestyle as happened in the winter 2009/10.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eHerding tradition\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe found that livelihood practices of herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi were still based on traditions and social networks, which are centred around the extended family as has been shown for other areas in Mongolia (Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1999\u003c/span\u003e; Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). During seasonal labour-intensive times herder households are dependent on external support (Schlecht et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR73\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), which agrees with our findings that herds of more than 1,000 small livestock are difficult to manage by a single herder household, according to our interviews. Larger numbers of small livestock require herders to divide animals into multiple herds, thus requiring additional herders, a trend already reported from other regions of Mongolia (Mijiddorj et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR52\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; Murphy, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). This results in absentee and contract herding arrangements, which are becoming more common in Mongolia (Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1999\u003c/span\u003e; Mijiddorj et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR52\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; Murphy, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). In Eastern and South Africa, such arrangements are often considered exploitative, with negative effects on livestock well-being and pasture health (Michler et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; Moritz et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR55\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e). While we found that currently the own children are still valuable assistants in labour-intensive times for herders in the Dzungarian Gobi, maintaining the connection to their homeland (Sukhbaatar \u0026amp; Tark\u0026oacute;, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR76\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e), we also saw a trend of the young generation leaving the herding lifestyle behind.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eFuture of traditional herding\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe found that while the number of livestock per herding household is increasing, the number of herding households is decreasing nationally and regionally. Even locally, most adult children of herder households were employed in salaried jobs and did not live as herders anymore, showing the countrywide trend of rural-urban migration and rapid urbanisation in Mongolia over the last three decades (Dyer et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Worldwide, herding as an occupation is becoming less attractive to the youth (Schlecht et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR73\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) and young Mongolians move to urban areas to seek labour or higher education (Fern\u0026aacute;ndez-Gim\u0026eacute;nez et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e; Park et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR66\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThere also seems to be a growing gender gap in education (Ahearn, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e; Steiner-Khamsi \u0026amp; Gerelmaa, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR74\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e), with our interviews revealing that the education of female youths was prioritized over that of male youths, the latter being more often expected to continue to herd livestock. This makes it difficult for young man to find a partner and continue a traditional family centred herding lifestyle. The long distances to urban centres also results in some herder households to split up during winter, with women and school children staying in settled centres while men stay in the field to herd the livestock (Ahearn, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). In our interviews, this practice was only reported by a few families and it was not yet a general trend. Still, in our focus group discussion the participants highlighted the limited access to social services like education and health as a major challenge, which is in line with the situation nomadic herders face in Africa (Dika et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e; Gammino et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), South America (Caine, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e) and other parts of Asia (Dyer \u0026amp; Rajan, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eHerding in a Protected Area\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOur study showed that herders faced challenges with the PA management considering pasture use, although they perceived living close to the Great Gobi B SPA as a livelihood advantage. In Africa, making use of pastures inside PAs is considered as important traditional pastoral coping strategy for environmental uncertainty (Butt, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e) due to better pasture availability (Michler et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). In Mongolia, protected areas are often used as emergency pastures in times of limited resource availability during climate extremes (Bedunah \u0026amp; Schmidt, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2004\u003c/span\u003e; Hess et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). However, this also puts added pressure on threatened, rare wildlife populations, some of which are only found in PAs (Turghan et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR78\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) and might result in competition between herders with access permits to the PA and those without (Michler et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). This highlights the importance of good communication practices between PA management and the local pastoral community, which was perceived insufficient by the local herders in our study. We, therefore, state that any conflicting objectives herders and conservation managers have must be resolved to come to a mutually accepted understanding of rights and responsibilities (Moln\u0026aacute;r et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR53\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"5 Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eWe conclude that herder households in the Great Gobi B SPA are reaching livestock herd sizes, which are no longer manageable in the traditional way and which threaten pasture health (Sainnemekh et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR70\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e) and compete with wildlife populations (Berger et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). On the other hand, herder household numbers are declining, and it may be possible to reach an economically and ecologically sustainable density of livestock by either diversifying the economic basis of herder families or by changing the traditional family-centred herding tradition (Mijiddorj et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR52\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). In Mongolia, several international and national organisations focus on herder groups jointly managing pasture resources while also improving cashmere value-chains through fostering market access and increased livestock product prices (Addison et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e; Okamoto \u0026amp; Jamsranjav, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR64\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Some of those initiatives focus on a wildlife-friendly cashmere value chain (Okamoto \u0026amp; Jamsranjav, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR64\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), which could also be a strategy for herder households using the pastures of the Great Gobi B SPA.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to Abukari \u0026amp; Mwalyosi (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) local communities in Ghana and Tanzania perceive the impact of PAs on their livelihoods positively when PA governance is inclusive and considers local peoples\u0026rsquo; economic needs. To secure and diversify herder household incomes in line with conservation aims, wildlife tourism has widely been practiced in PAs (Goodwin \u0026amp; Roe, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2001\u003c/span\u003e). However, care needs to be taken, that more than just minor contributions find their way to local communities (DeGeorges \u0026amp; Reilly, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2009\u003c/span\u003e; Nepal, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1997\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe conclude that in and around the Great Gobi B SPA, livestock numbers need to be reduced before pasture overexploitation jeopardizes biodiversity conservation and herder livelihoods. This can only be successful when local communities are involved in management decisions and profit directly or indirectly from the protected area. While a well-managed protected area can offer healthy pastures, job opportunities, and additional income from eco-tourism for some, the protected area cannot solve the current dilemma of increasing livestock numbers to meet livelihood demands in the Dzungarian Gobi. National strategies are needed to enable local herding communities to maintaining mobility, gain access to markets and social services, and diversify their economic basis to enhance their resilience to environmental and economic fluctuations.\u003c/p\u003e "},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eData collection were performed by L.M.M. and D.B.. Material preparation and analysis were performed by all authors. The first draft of the manuscript was written by L. M.M. and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAcknowledgement\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe thank the Great Gobi B strictly protected area management and the rangers who supported the data collection. Our greatest thanks go to the herders who answered our interview questions and participated in the focus group discussions. The first author (L.M.M.) was financially supported through a scholarship by the Heinrich Boell foundation and received research funds by the International Takhi Group (ITG). The second author (P.K.) was supported by the Research Council of Norway grant 251112.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eFunding and Competing interests\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe first author (L.M.M.) was financially supported through a scholarship by the Heinrich Boell foundation and received research funds by the International Takhi Group (ITG). The second author (P.K.) was supported by the Research Council of Norway grant 251112. The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAbdalla, M., Hastings, A., Chadwick, D. R., Jones, D. L., Evans, C. D., Jones, M. B., Rees, R. M., \u0026amp; Smith, P. (2018). 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Grazing altered soil aggregates, nutrients and enzyme activities in a \u003cem\u003eStipa kirschnii\u003c/em\u003e steppe of Inner Mongolia. \u003cem\u003eSoil and Tillage Research\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003e219\u003c/em\u003e, 105327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2022.105327\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},{"header":"Footnotes","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e \u003cspan\u003e Exchange rate on 15.06.2023: 1 \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003eUS\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;3,438 MNT (\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e \u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003e \u003cspan\u003ewww.mongolbank.mn\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan address=\"http://www.mongolbank.mn\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/span\u003e)\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"human-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"huec","sideBox":"Learn more about [Human Ecology](http://link.springer.com/journal/10745)","snPcode":"10745","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10745/3","title":"Human Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Pastoralism, Dzungarian Gobi, Livestock numbers, Protected area management","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743895/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743895/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eNomadic pastoralism is still practiced by around one-third of the Mongolian population. Recent socio-economic constraints have challenged pastoral livelihoods and led to declines in herder household numbers. Meanwhile, livestock numbers have risen countrywide, threatening overall rangeland health and biodiversity conservation. In the Mongolian Gobi, herder families fully depend on livestock production. Little is known about the current and future trends of their livelihoods and its compatibility with protected area goals to reduce livestock numbers. We combined data from semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions in the Great Gobi B strictly protected area with secondary data on regional and national herder household income and livestock numbers. We determined the importance of social networks, the willingness to continue a herding lifestyle, and the involvement of herders in the protected area management. Our data confirmed that herding is no longer centred around a subsistence lifestyle but rather around cashmere production. Herder families are currently still increasing livestock numbers, which is counter to protected area goals. Costs for education, health care, travelling, and modern communication are high in the economic reality of a market economy and drive the need to increase livestock numbers. Most of the young herder generation are employed urban centres with limited time to support the family herding household. Herders, despite valuing pastures within protected areas, faced challenges due to inadequate communication and conflicting livestock numbers goals. We conclude that herders in the Great Gobi B SPA are reaching livestock numbers which are neither socio-economically nor ecologically sustainable.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"What will the future bring? – Socio-economic challenges to herder households in the Dzungarian Gobi, Mongolia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-08-08 08:17:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743895/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2024-08-08T19:43:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-08-08T12:52:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-08-04T19:16:33+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-08-04T09:59:19+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"62235617639451722647782659150621909485","date":"2024-07-19T07:51:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"112788430185152401352703329590940950494","date":"2024-07-19T06:32:34+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"317261779146246203097414575913182026047","date":"2024-07-17T07:27:12+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"225442048864860901606256668893127534841","date":"2024-07-17T03:04:46+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-07-16T20:21:35+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-07-16T07:30:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-07-16T07:28:58+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Human Ecology","date":"2024-07-15T15:23:12+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"human-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"huec","sideBox":"Learn more about [Human Ecology](http://link.springer.com/journal/10745)","snPcode":"10745","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10745/3","title":"Human Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"d327e44c-a2d8-45e3-9007-d7278cd8b31a","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 8th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-12-09T16:06:15+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4743895","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-024-00551-z","journal":{"identity":"human-ecology","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Human Ecology"},"publishedOn":"2024-12-05 15:57:54","publishedOnDateReadable":"December 5th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-08-08 08:17:46","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s10745-024-00551-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-024-00551-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4743895","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4743895","identity":"rs-4743895","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}